181 replies to this topic

[Electric Mango]

So if I start out the game as a townie but am converted to a pod person, and the pod people win, would I win with them?

[Aquinas]

8 players...so it's probably 2 mafia.

Worst case scenario...
D1 - mislynch
N1 - night kill
D2 - left with 4 townies and 2 mafia.
D2- mislynch
N2 - night kill = 2 townies and 2 mafia = game over.

No lynch scenario
D1 - no lynch
N1 - night kill
D2 - left with 5 townies and 2 mafia.
D2 - mislynch
N2 - night kill
D3 - left with 3 townies and 2 mafia.
D3 - mislynch = 2 townies and 2 mafia = game over


In both cases...we only have one mislynch to give.
Also...a majority vote is needed for a lynch (no half majority to lynch listed in the rules).

It looks like it can get a lot worse than that. We we either mislynch today or not lynch we can add another scum to the list. If we mislynch we're looking at 4 townies and 3 mafia on day two. Thats not a good situation. One more mislynch after that and we lose that night. If we no lynch we're looking at 3 scum and 5 townies after a conversion. It would seem a mislynch the day after and a night kill would put us at 3 v. 3...a losing situation if I am right.

I'm not sure if we go on at a tie or not..either way...

Worst Case Scenario In My Opinion (Assuming Two Mafia)
Lynch Strategy
D1 - (2 Scum v 6 Townies) - Mislynch
N1 - Conversion
D2 - (3 Scum v 4 Townies) - Mislynch
N2 - (3 Scum v 3 Townies) - Night Kill

No Lynch Strategy
D1 - (2 Scum v 6 Townies) - No Lynch
N1 - Conversion
D2 - (3 Scum v 5 Townies) - Mislynch
N2 - (3 Scum v 4 Townies) - Night Kill

If we loose on ties we're out on night two. If not, no lynch gets us another day. However, that is not me advocating for no lynch strategy.

This is going to be really tough either way. I've seen the conversion power as non town allied team but never as a distinctly pro scum team.

[Bastille Hades]

So if I start out the game as a townie but am converted to a pod person, and the pod people win, would I win with them?

Yes, sir. Pod people are alien replicas of the humans (and the original is simultaneously destroyed) so by converting you become a Pod person, and although you share their memories and experiences, you now bat for the other team.

[Bastille Hades]

This is going to be really tough either way.

As I said before, I've been working the numbers for a couple of days, and am confident both sides have a more or less equal fighting chance.

I've seen the conversion power as non town allied team but never as a distinctly pro scum team.

Well, I didn't want you guys getting bored.

Hades - when I tried to reply to you, your inbox was full. Clear it out a bit then I can reply.

Peoples - Since I haven't seen this setup, this one won't be going on the Wins and Losses. Hades, PM me the setup when possible, so I can take a look. Then I can decide
yes, I will update it soon. Shh. -Mole

Edited by molestargazer, 22 January 2010 - 07:03 PM.

[Falzis]

So if I start out the game as a townie but am converted to a pod person, and the pod people win, would I win with them?

I'm thinking you are a townie... as of the moment. Maybe CD will agree with me.

I'm thinking today we could have only 1 Pod person...

[CanucksDynasty]

Actually I think there is only one mafia/pea pod to start off with.

IF there was 2...it could be game over on D2 with only one wrong vote.

D1 = mislynch
N1 = convert townie to pea pod
D2 = one wrong townie vote + 3 quick mafia votes = game over.

[CanucksDynasty]

Vote: KevinH

A no lynch (particular in this scenario) doesn't help the town.


can some update the speadsheet?
thanks.

[CanucksDynasty]

I'm thinking you are a townie... as of the moment. Maybe CD will agree with me.

I'm thinking today we could have only 1 Pod person...

Yeah...I think EM is town for his question/comment.

[Bastille Hades]

can some update the speadsheet?
thanks.

It's been updated. KevinH has 3 votes against, 2 more needed to gain a simple majority.
"No lynch" has 2 votes, 3 needed to gain.
Electric has 1 vote.

[KevinH]

Give the cop a chance to investigate.

With one mislynch to give, do you want to risk it on day 1 when it is essentially a random shot?

Maybe the answer is "yes" ... if pod people will grow in numbers as the game goes on then maybe today is essentially lynch or lose.

But with a cop's investigation, the day 2 lynch could be a 100% sure-kill or at the very least have one townie confirmed.

[CanucksDynasty]

Give the cop a chance to investigate.

With one mislynch to give, do you want to risk it on day 1 when it is essentially a random shot?

Maybe the answer is "yes" ... if pod people will grow in numbers as the game goes on then maybe today is essentially lynch or lose.

But with a cop's investigation, the day 2 lynch could be a 100% sure-kill or at the very least have one townie confirmed.

Today isn't LYLO.
A cop investigation tonight means squat the next night if townie was converted.

[ScoutX]

I can't imagine that KevinH is actually claiming to be the cop. It's an assured death sentence for him if he is the cop.

I think we nailed this one on the first try.

[KevinH]

If we lynch at all, we are risking lynching the cop.

Would it matter if I am the cop or a townie? One more townie alive tomorrow is one more vote the town can use. If there is only 1 scum at the moment, is it worth a 7/8 chance that a townie will be lynched?

Does the fact that I prefer to play the probabilities make me a better candidate to lynch? I act in the town's best interest. Those that are voting against me are not acting in the town's best interest.

[ScoutX]

You aren't playing the probabilities though. If we don't lynch anyone today, the scum get one of us tonight, and we still don't have any more information. We'll still be taking a shot in the dark tomorrow, only tomorrow there will be one more scum.

[CanucksDynasty]

If we lynch at all, we are risking lynching the cop.

Would it matter if I am the cop or a townie? One more townie alive tomorrow is one more vote the town can use. If there is only 1 scum at the moment, is it worth a 7/8 chance that a townie will be lynched?

Does the fact that I prefer to play the probabilities make me a better candidate to lynch? I act in the town's best interest. Those that are voting against me are not acting in the town's best interest.

Yes.
I think it's actually better to reduce the number of potential suspects.

D1 = mislynch
N1 = converted townie (5 townies / 2mafia)
D2 = mislynch
N2 = nk (3 townies / 2 mafia ...they have to nk cuz they can't get majority)
D3 = LYLO (we have a 2/5 chance of killing of mafia)

[KevinH]

D1 = no lynch
N1 = converted townie (6 townies / 2 mafia)
D2 = probable mislynch (but the cop investigation either guarantees a scum lynch or reduces the potential mislynch)
N2 = converted townie (4 townies / 3 mafia)
D3 = LYLO (we have a 3/7 chance of killing of mafia, not considering 2 investigations)

This still puts Day 3 at Lynch or Lose but we have better chances of getting it right.

[CanucksDynasty]

2/5 = 40%
3/7 = 43%

Woohoo...an extra 3%.

[Narsis]

it's not quite that cut and dry i believe...due to there being the ability to lynch mafia on day 1 and 2. stupid probability...

if you give me a bit i'll see if i can work it out on paper.

[KevinH]

Woohoo...an extra 3%.

Every little bit helps.

But Narsis is also right. The probability of the lost opportunity of correctly lynching on Day 1 should be considered.

[Narsis]

oh wow that is a huge difference:

lynch day 1: 78% mafia win/22% town win

no lynch day 1: 95% mafia win/5% town win


this of course assumes random lynches(it is probability afterall).