181 replies to this topic

[CanucksDynasty]

oh wow that is a huge difference:

lynch day 1: 78% mafia win/22% town win

no lynch day 1: 95% mafia win/5% town win


this of course assumes random lynches(it is probability afterall).

See...it's better to lynch.

[Bastille Hades]

this of course assumes random lynches(it is probability afterall).

I disagree, the opening salvo - sure, maybe the joke votes etc are random - but the later votes should be as much about attitude and prior actions than 'lolz.'

[Narsis]

See...it's better to lynch.

well the probability doesnt take into account any form of powerrole(other then the mafias nk/recruitment). also it assumes a random lynch. so the mathematical model is quite a bit different from the above. even so it does put a lot into perspective...

[Narsis]

I disagree, the opening salvo - sure, maybe the joke votes etc are random - but the later votes should be as much about attitude and prior actions than 'lolz.'

oh i agree. however the probabilistic math requires that lynches and nks be assumed random. elsewise you couldnt make use of probability.

so i dont say that the probability is the end all be all...but it does give a good baseline for how the odds are stacked etc.


also: it is possible to take role powers into account...but the math starts getting complicated...well not complicated as much as seriously tedious.

[CanucksDynasty]

Probability aside...the worst case scenario is that D3 is LYLO.
I'd rather sift through 4 suspects and not 6 suspects.
(not including oneself as no one would vote for themself on LYLO).

[Narsis]

also thought i'd add:

in the no lynch scenario it takes at least 4 days for the town to win. with a lynch it is possible to win one day 1.

[Bastille Hades]

Aquinas and Falzis have yet to vote, not to mention any changes of heart people may have - we need a 5 majority to lynch someone at this point, or a 5 vote of 'no lynch' to progress to 'the next level.'

[Electric Mango]

Vote: Tobias Green
Reason: Inactivity

My joke on Kevin was just for fun anyway and Tobias isn't doing us any good if he's not posting much anyway. I'll change my vote if anything warrants it.

Also, I agree we should lynch but disagree with voting for KevinH for saying so, it is Kevin's style every time and we just have to accept Kevin for how he plays.

[Narsis]

Vote: KevinH

to break the tie that would result in a no lynch. should he or Tobias change votes then this will also likely change.

[Narsis]

a bit more math for ya:

if we lynch a townie day 1: 89% mafia win/21% town win

that is still better then no lynching.

[KevinH]

this of course assumes random lynches(it is probability afterall).

How are you doing the math?

Also, I agree we should lynch but disagree with voting for KevinH for saying so, it is Kevin's style every time and we just have to accept Kevin for how he plays.

Thanks for the love.

should he or Tobias change votes then this will also likely change.

If I don't change my vote there is a 100% chance of a townie being lynched (me).

Unvote.
Vote: Tobias Greene

The worst course of action would be for the town to lynch me, so I am forced to bow to the pressure and vote for somebody. Tobias is the only other player with a vote and I agree with EM on the inactivity reason.

I have also been swayed that lynching isn't really that sub-optimal in this game. With players converting to scum at night, we should hope to get lucky with a lynch and stem the tide.

[Falzis]

Vote: Tobias Greene

to make it two-way and give Aquinas or Tobias the final decision who gets lynched (4th vote is not hammer but the first to get it will be lynched if there is a tie).

@Narsis

How did you arrive at that math?

[Aquinas]

I'm not going to vote for either candidate at this point actually. I do not at all advocate the no lynch strategy but, I do not advocate voting for either of the candidates on the chopping block. I am not going to vote for KevinH because of his no lynch suggestion. It happens every game and it does not demonstrate to me that he is either more or less scummy. Furthermore, Tobias Greene's inactivity is not suspect to me at this time either. This game is little more than a day old. People get busy and its not a scum tell in my mind that he's scum for not posting. Especially if he is absent when he is this close to a lynch. A scum might avoid conversation but, there is no reason not to defend oneself in this situation. When the only evidence against you it shouldn't be to hard to get rid of the burden by getting on and posting. Therefore, finding both parties to be inappropriate lynch targets...

Vote: Falzis

Falzis wanted me to vote for one of two candidates:

Vote: Tobias Greene

to make it two-way and give Aquinas or Tobias the final decision who gets lynched (4th vote is not hammer but the first to get it will be lynched if there is a tie).

This first of all is a false ultimatum. You've asked me to do something where there is plenty more than two options but only offered two. Both the people you have implied for me to vote for I do not find to be likely scum. You have suggested that I vote to lynch one of two likely townie players at random possibly to avoid drawing suspicion to yourself or to be able to start hunting me down next with a pretty solid base on day two. I'm not saying that is certainly the case but, I find it more likely than either of the others being scum.

@MOD: I think we're having some spreadsheet coordination issues, could you attempt to get on it and fix some of the wrong inputs. I'd do it myself but, as a player I think that might be inappropriate.

[Electric Mango]

Unvote

Vote: Falzis

Reason: Aquinas said it well and I'm pulling my vote on Tobias to make it a 3 horse race. My vote on Tobias was solely due to his inactivity, my vote for Falzis makes better sense.

[Falzis]

Wokieeee I didn't honestly expect to get heat for that vote nor comment. It wasn't really an ultimatum so much as an option.

[Narsis]

Unvote: KevinH

as promised.

as for how i got the numbers...have you heard of probability trees? that's what i used. basically: you start with two branches coming off of a point, each branch corresponding to a different probability(so the probability of lynching town on one and the probability of lynching mafia on the other). repeat this for each day with the new probabilities based off of which branch you went down creating a new branch for each probability.

[Bastille Hades]

I am going through vote by vote to make sure the spreadsheet is correct. I am less active on weekends (as at work I am paid to "surf") but I shall be monitoring.

Edit: The good news is, everyone apart from Narsis has made a vote (as he retracted). The bad news is, I see no majority.... So day 1 drags on

Check the spreadsheet, ask the people you feel should live (or die) some questions, and have at ye! Every person has a part to play, should they choose to play it or not could mean staying on... or straying off the reservation.

Anyway, good luck to all.

Edited by Bastille Hades, 23 January 2010 - 07:13 AM.

[Electric Mango]

Mod: Can we get the spread sheet updated. I don't think it's accurate.

[ScoutX]

I'll buy it.

Unvote

Vote: Falzis

[Falzis]

Huh? Guys I'm not the pod person. I don't know how to convince you but I'm not. May Heaven's wrath will fall upon the Pod person. Confess your sins now to me!