Welcome to the IRON Gaming Channel! Tonight we have a special treat as Narsis hosts what he(and we considering our poor ratings as of late) hopes is the next big game show! He calls it Guess Who Mafia.

 

Ever played that board game Guess Who? The one where players pick a person from the deck and then try to guess who the other player has by asking yes/no questions about them. What about mafia? The game of persuasion, logic, and good old fashioned murder mystery. Well whether you have or haven't now is your chance to watch these 5 players duke it out in a twisted combination of the two! Who will win? Let's find out!

 

Players still in the game:

 

2. Kaziocore

3. Nerau

5. CanucksDynasty

 

Players out of the game:

Theophilos, TOWNIE, lynched Day One.

KevinH, TOWNIE, killed Night One.

 

Revealed Information:

 

1. KevinH:

 

Hair Colour: Black

Eye Colour: Brown

Sex: Female

Skin Colour: Dark

Accessories: Glasses

 

2. Kaziocore:

 

Hair Colour:

Eye Colour:

Sex:

Skin Colour:

Accessories:

 

3. Nerau:

 

Hair Colour: Black

Eye Colour: Brown

Sex: Female

Skin Colour: Dark

Accessories: Necklace

 

4. Theophilos:

 

Hair Colour: Black

Eye Colour: Green

Sex: Female

Skin Colour: Light

Accessories: Glasses

 

5. CanucksDynasty:

 

Hair Colour: Brown

Eye Colour: Brown

Sex: Male

Skin Colour: Dark

Accessories: Necklace

 

6. The Mafia:

 

Hair Colour:

Eye Colour:

Sex:

Skin Colour:

Accessories:

 

 

The Rules

 

1. Days will last a week; nights will last 48 hours.

 

2. At deadline the player with the most votes dies. If there is a tie the first player to get to that number of votes is lynched. Should no one have been voted, a player will be lynched at random.

 

3. During the day the town(as a whole) may also ask the mod a single yes/no question about the mafia. This question must be related to the revealed information section. (Examples: Is the mafia's hair brown? Is the mafia a guy? etc. Examples of what not to ask: Is CD the mafia? Is KevinH not the mafia?) It must be asked in bold.

 

4. There are only two options for each category(hair: brown/black, eyes: brown/green, sex: guy/girl, skin: dark/light, accessories: glasses/necklace).

 

6. Upon death a persons info will be fully revealed. Additionally, one of the living players at the start of each day will be revealed in full.

 

5. Everything else should already be known to you guys since you've all played mafia before and I'm not about to throw out any major surprises. If you have any questions feel free to ask.

Edited July 18, 201016 yr by molestargazer

I simply think that those two variations are the most likely two, that will show who the mafia is ... nothing more than a feeling if you will. That's why I said their is a price to pay for such an assumption.

 

But something (other than a feeling) must have made you think that these 2 are the critical characterisitics that will determine mafia.

So I'm trying to figure out how you made this connection/assumption?????

Will the characteristics we ask even matter?

 

IF the answer is yes...then mafia may have the same characteristics as me or it might be the other combination.

 

ie. browh hair + necklace (same as me)

ie. black hair + glasses (not the same)

 

If yes if you're lynched and it turns out you're a townie, we can ask another question that will determine if

the mafia has the black hair + glasses.

 

But I still think that you shouldn't be lynched.

If a question will somehow tell us the characteristics that will match yours

 

(1) Lynch Immediately

+ Instant win! (CD's Scum)

- The second best/active/most likely townie will be killed (CD's Townie)

 

(2)Lynch The Next Day

+ The second best/active/mostly likely townie will reach the 2nd day (CD's Townie and night killed)

+ We can ask another question the next day to confirm CD's identity if he's really scum or townie (if he survives the night)

+ Lynch the least active or probably scum

- In an event that there will be two candidates the next day, CD will probably influence the other townie to lynch the other candidate(CD's Scum)

Good point. There's no real advantage to the town in lynching the scum the second day rather than the first.

There's no real advantage to the town in lynching the scum the second day rather than the first.

 

There's no real advantage in lynching the scum right now or lynching the next day?

Sorry didn't understand that.

@Nerau/Theo - are those 2 characteristics (hair + accessories) and the line of questioning (ie. KevinH suggestion) acceptable?

 

Very much so.

 

My suggestion would be, "brown hair/green eyes or black hair/brown eyes"

But something (other than a feeling) must have made you think that these 2 are the critical characterisitics that will determine mafia.

So I'm trying to figure out how you made this connection/assumption?????

 

Nope only a feeling, those two characteristics are also the two I'm most likely to remember in RL when I meet someone or such. I'm betting on the fact that Narsis might have approached it the same way ... than again if he is more in to details, than I'm likely wrong.

There's no real advantage in lynching the scum right now or lynching the next day?

Sorry didn't understand that.

If we lynch the scum the first day, we win.

If we lynch the scum the second day, we win.

 

Either way, we win.

OK...here is the dilemma that I'm facing...

 

 

Group A: Nerau and Theo wants the 2 characteristics of hair + eyes.

Group B: KevinH and Kazio wants the 2 characteristics of hair + accessories.

 

I'm townie so mafia will be in one of the groupings.

 

IF I have the same hair and eyes as mafia...then Nerau or Theo is mafia.

IF I don't have the same hair and eyes as mafia...then KevinH or Kazio is mafia.

 

IF I have the same hair and accessories as mafia...then KevinH or Kazio is mafia.

IF I dont have the same hair and accessories as mafia...then Nerau or Theo is mafia.

 

 

The choice I need to make is to choose the question that will prove I'm not mafia thereby the town will left with just 2 suspects (if my thinking is correct).

Does that make sense?

i understand what you are saying

 

and yes kevinh reasoning is acceptable

The choice I need to make is to choose the question that will prove I'm not mafia thereby the town will left with just 2 suspects (if my thinking is correct).

Does that make sense?

 

That doesn't make sense at all. I have no preference regarding the characteristics chosen. If you are not scum in either scenario, then the rest of us have equal chances to be scum.

 

I just want whichever 2 are chosen to have a match with the known characterisitics so that a 2 for 2 match gives a fairly high probability.

 

Now that I think about it, the best way will be for CD to randomly choose the 2 characteristics himself. Any other player that was mafia would want to influence the question so that neither of proposed setups would match the mafia player; so if the mafia player has his characteristics revealed at the beginning of the day tomorrow, they won't match.

 

I put my vote on the question totally behind CD. If he's scum, he can't phrase the question to avoid the lynch. If he's not scum, then there won't be any influence from the real scum.

I put my vote on the question totally behind CD. If he's scum, he can't phrase the question to avoid the lynch. If he's not scum, then there won't be any influence from the real scum.

 

I can assure you that I am not scum. It would be a severe disadvantage for mafia to have been already been exposed on D1 as Kazio mentioned. Think of it...really. IF I am scum...then no matter what question asked...I would have the same characteristics. I would most likely be lynched on D1 just for that reason alone. It would be game over on D1 for sure and an easy win for town.

That doesn't make sense at all. I have no preference regarding the characteristics chosen. If you are not scum in either scenario, then the rest of us have equal chances to be scum.

 

I just want whichever 2 are chosen to have a match with the known characterisitics so that a 2 for 2 match gives a fairly high probability.

 

Now that I think about it, the best way will be for CD to randomly choose the 2 characteristics himself. Any other player that was mafia would want to influence the question so that neither of proposed setups would match the mafia player; so if the mafia player has his characteristics revealed at the beginning of the day tomorrow, they won't match.

 

I put my vote on the question totally behind CD. If he's scum, he can't phrase the question to avoid the lynch. If he's not scum, then there won't be any influence from the real scum.

 

But you already have stated a preference when you phrased the suggested question to the mod.

As did others when they agreed or suggested an alternate question.

That's why I asked everyone what 2 characteristics they want to ask.

 

The fault in my logic is that I am assuming that mafia wants to reveal characteristics that are the same as mine.

And that he wanted me dead by lynch (ie. he won't have fear a D1 lynch) rather than nightkill.

 

I don't think mafia wants me to be a confirmed townie as then the spotlight is then focused on the remaining 4.

Which he would then have to survive the lynch (1/4 odds).

And we (the town) would have a possible voting patterns to work from on D2.

I can assure you that I am not scum. It would be a severe disadvantage for mafia to have been already been exposed on D1 as Kazio mentioned. Think of it...really. IF I am scum...then no matter what question asked...I would have the same characteristics. I would most likely be lynched on D1 just for that reason alone. It would be game over on D1 for sure and an easy win for town.

 

Then I think it would be best if you ask the mod yourself.

Regardless of the outcome, I would still vote someone else (see my previous post)

and less likely the scum would influence the question (like what KevinH said)

I was thinking last night that the common thing that everyone wanted to ask was hair.

Assuming that mafia wants me implicated...then I think that mafia hair will be brown (like me).

 

 

6. The Mafia:

 

Hair Colour: Brown

Eye Colour:

Sex:

Skin Colour:

Accessories:

 

 

IF everyone agrees to me asking the mod the question...then I will do so.

KevinH and Kazio has placed that task upon me.

What about the rest (Nerau + Theo)?

I was thinking last night that the common thing that everyone wanted to ask was hair.

Assuming that mafia wants me implicated...then I think that mafia hair will be brown (like me).

 

 

6. The Mafia:

 

Hair Colour: Brown

Eye Colour:

Sex:

Skin Colour:

Accessories:

 

Then why not replacing the hair with another characteristic since you think the mafia may have the same hair as you?

Then why not replacing the hair with another characteristic since you think the mafia may have the same hair as you?

 

I could but we also need some definitive answers.

IF I ask a question that involves eyes and accessories (the other 2 characteristics that were mentioned)...I would be exonerated.

But it would only clear me and I couldn't narrow my focus to 1 of the 2 groupings (as I mentioned in my earlier posts).

 

 

This is my current thoughts....

 

CanucksDynasty:

 

Hair Colour: Brown

Eye Colour: Brown

Sex: Male

Skin Colour: Dark

Accessories: Necklace

 

 

Other than Nerau saying KevinH suggested question was acceptable...no one else changed their position.

Mafia did not switch to get a majority consesus.

Mafia did not switch from hair+eyes to hair+accessories (or vice versa).

Therefore mafia does not have either the same eyes or same accessories as me.

 

IF I am correct that mafia wants to implicate me and has brown hair...then I think we can assume the following...

 

 

#1.

Hair Colour: Brown

Eye Colour: Brown

Sex: ?

Skin Colour: ?

Accessories: Glasses

 

or

 

#2.

Hair Colour: Brown

Eye Colour: Green

Sex: ?

Skin Colour: ?

Accessories: Necklace

 

 

Let's expand this a bit further.

There are 5 characteristics of which I'm certain that I have 2 that are the same as mafia.

Could I have 3 characteristics that are the same as mafia?

I don't think so since it would be more advantageous to mafia if that were the case.

Especially in a smaller group (ie. only 5 players).

 

 

 

Therefore mafia will be either one of these...

#1.

Hair Colour: Brown

Eye Colour: Brown

Sex: Female

Skin Colour: Light

Accessories: Glasses

 

or

 

#2.

Hair Colour: Brown

Eye Colour: Green

Sex: Female

Skin Colour: Light

Accessories: Necklace

 

 

Again...this is if I'm correct in my assumptions.

I assume that all characteristics are assigned by chance and that the choice of whom to reveal is also by chance.

 

Probabilities:

1/2 = 1 characteristic the same

1/4 = 2 "

1/8 = 3 "

1/16 = 4 "

1/32 = 5 "

 

Best play by mafia would be to lay low and not appear scummy.

 

They should hope that the question does not match their characteristics so that they are on equal footing with the rest of the players at the beginning of the day.

If they do match and we wrongly lynch CD, then if they are revealed we will have suspicion on them before we even ask the next question.

 

Therefore mafia will be either one of these...

 

...

 

Again...this is if I'm correct in my assumptions.

 

I think those assumptions are a really big stretch.

 

First, you are assuming that the mafia desires to share the same characteristics as you so that you will be lynched. As previously posted, I think they would prefer to have you cleared and then night-kill you.

 

Second, you are making a leap from two suggestions that the mafia has those characteristics. Consider that I'm a townie and chose 2 characteristics: hair and assessory. One part of my suggestion was framed to match you (brown hair and necklace) and the other was chose as the opposite (black hair and glasses). I don't know anything about the mafia but you are using my suggestion as data to reduce the potential characteristics of the mafia.

 

Even if you are correct that the mafia has brown hair, why not have

 

#3

Hair Colour: Brown

Eye Colour: Green

Sex: ?

Skin Colour: ?

Accessories: Glasses

 

or

 

#4

Hair Colour: Brown

Eye Colour: Brown

Sex: ?

Skin Colour: ?

Accessories: Necklace

(#4 matches CD but as shown, there is a 1/8 chance that it could happen)

Taken from my point of view...

 

Mafia didn't complain that some wanted to include 2 characteristics (except for me at the beginning before it was more fully detailed).

Also...nobody switched sides to gain the majority consesus.

I think my assumptions may be correct IF mafia wants to implicate me.

 

IF mafia doesn't want to implicate me at all...then my reasoning is garbarge (as I explained in my previous posts).

I assume that all characteristics are assigned by chance and that the choice of whom to reveal is also by chance.

 

Probabilities:

1/2 = 1 characteristic the same

1/4 = 2 "

1/8 = 3 "

1/16 = 4 "

1/32 = 5 "

 

 

That's your assumption.

It may be very well that the characteristics were chosen specifically by the MOD.

I think you could also rule out 1/16 = 4 and 1/32 = 5 since it would be nearly impossible for townie to win (especially a 5 player game).

go ahead and pick the charateristic

 

its fine with me

go ahead and pick the charateristic

 

its fine with me

 

 

Alright then I'll go with this...

 

MOD: "Does the mafia have (brown hair and a necklace) or (black hair and glasses)?"

CD I already agreed to you asking the q, somewhere above ...

CD I already agreed to you asking the q, somewhere above ...

 

 

OK...your post was kinda confusing.

You said " very much so" and then offered a suggestion.

MOD: "Does the mafia have (brown hair and a necklace) or (black hair and glasses)?"

 

I support this.