202 replies to this topic

[Chaoshawk]

What the other two forgot to state is that if we do not lynch for the first two days we'll have one more chance on Day 3. (Although I hope we can figure it all out before then) I doubt there's a third party with so few people if so then town will be screwed anyways.

4 townies and 2 werewolves isn't lynch or lose and over time we can gauge who is acting strange and pushing for our failure within time and looking back on what they said.

VOTE COUNT
KevinH (3): Kaziocore, Chaoshawk, Narsis
Kaziocore (2): CanucksDynasty, Kasabian
Narsis (1): Nerau
No Lynch (1): KevinH

Not Voting (0)

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Edited by molestargazer, 04 August 2010 - 09:04 PM.

[KevinH]

4 townies and 2 werewolves isn't lynch or lose

There's a night kill following a mislynch. Sometimes there are provisions to prevent the night kill, but to play typically, I would consider 4 townies and 2 werewolves a lynch or lose situation.

[Kaziocore]

You just proved that it's Lynch or Lose on Day 2 regardless. It's not "obviously" better to lynch.

FOS: Kaziocore for using bad logic.

No. You're logic is bad.

I'll give both sides.

If we lynch today:
Day 1, it's 2/7 chance of hitting scum and 5/7 chance of hitting townie. Most probable: townie lynch.
Assume a night-kill on Night 1.
Day 2, it's 2/5 chance of hitting scum and 3/5 chance of hitting townie.
However ... with only 5 players, one wrong vote by a townie will get added to by 2 scum and we lose.

If we don't lynch today:
Day 2, it's 2/6 chance of hitting scum and 4/6 chance of hitting townie.
It would take 4 votes to lynch so the 2 scum don't hold quite so much power. That's a strong argument in favor of a day 1 no-lynch!

I told that I prefer lynching because you are given 2 chances of getting the scum and at the 2nd day you're more likely to catch the scum(40%) while your
suggestion on the other hand has only 1 chance of getting the scum and the chance is even lower(33%).

[Kaziocore]

What the other two forgot to state is that if we do not lynch for the first two days we'll have one more chance on Day 3. (Although I hope we can figure it all out before then) I doubt there's a third party with so few people if so then town will be screwed anyways.

4 townies and 2 werewolves isn't lynch or lose and over time we can gauge who is acting strange and pushing for our failure within time and looking back on what they said.

No lynch until the 3rd
5 - 2
4 - 2
3 - 2

Lynch twice
5 - 2
3 - 2

Both will end with 3 - 2.
The problem with your suggestion is that because people will go with a no lynch for two days,
we will not have any voting patterns to look at while lynching on 1st day means having the chance to get the mafia.

[Kaziocore]

I told that I prefer lynching because you are given 2 chances of getting the scum and at the 2nd day you're more likely to catch the scum(40%) while your
suggestion on the other hand has only 1 chance of getting the scum and the chance is even lower(33%).

I didn't actually wrote the reason but I thought it was obvious

[KevinH]

The problem with your suggestion is that because people will go with a no lynch for two days

I never suggested no-lynch for 2 days.

We need to get lucky to win, but I want to maximize our chances.
Also consider that a cop can provide additional information not available on the first day and that a doc could prevent a night kill.

[CanucksDynasty]

I never suggested no-lynch for 2 days.

We need to get lucky to win, but I want to maximize our chances.
Also consider that a cop can provide additional information not available on the first day and that a doc could prevent a night kill.

You're relying too much on townie power roles this way (if we have any).
Most of the time...it's a hit and miss anyways.
The vote is the the townies power and I prefer to use it.




PLEASE no quick votes on KevinH as we have 2 weeks to discuss.
For 7 players...4 votes are needed for a majority lynch (before deadline day).

Unofficial Vote Count.
Kaziocore (2): CanucksDynasty, Kasabian
KevinH (3): Kaziocore, Choashawk, Narsis
Narsis (1): Nerau
No-Lynch (1): KevinH


Not Voting: NONE

[CanucksDynasty]

Allow me to continue.Day 2 is Lynch or Lose in either scenario. To win, we have to beat the odds and lynch a scum either Day 1 or Day 2.With a Day 1 lynch and success either Day 1 or Day 2, Day 3 will be 1 scum and 2 townies. Again, one wrong vote by a townie and it's over.With a Day 1 no-lynch and a success on Day 2, Day 3 will be 1 scum and 3 townies. I just talked myself into my famous no-lynch stance.Unvote.Vote: No-Lynch

I'd rather have 2 chances at scum rather than just 1.

Getting Started? i think it already startedSame as you, just for the fun of itVote: Kaziocore

First post and it's a bandwagon vote.
Don't like it that much.

as i told mole i'm currently away from home so my activity will be spotty at best.my thoughts:Kevin: although your logic isn't necessarily wrong...i think you are perhaps missing some information. for starters: lynching today and tomorrow gives us 2 shots at mafia as oppossed to just one. also it gives us greater information from the lynch etc. although it is true that scum could pile on Day 2...i highly doubt however that an uninformed vote will be made against a townie by a townie.also Kazio i believe wasn't using incorrect logic. i believe he intuitively understood what i just described above.Vote: KevinHlet's put some pressure on...

3rd vote on KevinH to apply pressure.

What the other two forgot to state is that if we do not lynch for the first two days we'll have one more chance on Day 3. (Although I hope we can figure it all out before then) I doubt there's a third party with so few people if so then town will be screwed anyways.4 townies and 2 werewolves isn't lynch or lose and over time we can gauge who is acting strange and pushing for our failure within time and looking back on what they said.

2nd vote on KevinH appears to be a bandwagon vote.
Incorrect townie logic = ?
I don't know enough about you to make a judgement in your alignment.

There's a night kill following a mislynch. Sometimes there are provisions to prevent the night kill, but to play typically, I would consider 4 townies and 2 werewolves a lynch or lose situation.

Correcting Chaoshawk.
I would also consider it LYLO as many others would.

No lynch until the 3rd (5 - 2) (4 - 2) (3 - 2) Lynch twice (5 - 2) (3 - 2). Both will end with 3 - 2.The problem with your suggestion is that because people will go with a no lynch for two days, we will not have any voting patterns to look at while lynching on 1st day means having the chance to get the mafia.

1st to vote on KevinH = random vote??
Presents arguements to counter No-Lynch stance.
(Note: added brackets to above quote)

[Chaoshawk]

The problem with your suggestion is that because people will go with a no lynch for two days,
we will not have any voting patterns to look at while lynching on 1st day means having the chance to get the mafia.

I was just stating 4 town 2 mafia is a mislynch and lose situation not lynch or lose. It's more of a 'what if' I'm talking about then what I would want to do.


Also, yes it is a bandwagon vote to get him to talk a bit.

Unvote: KevinH

Vote: Narsis

[CanucksDynasty]

I was just stating 4 town 2 mafia is a mislynch and lose situation not lynch or lose. It's more of a 'what if' I'm talking about then what I would want to do.


Also, yes it is a bandwagon vote to get him to talk a bit.

Unvote: KevinH

Vote: Narsis

In that context...you would be right as an option would be to not lynch. Then the following day would be LYLO.


So...why the vote on Narsis?

[KevinH]

I'd rather have 2 chances at scum rather than just 1.

I can almost agree with this. We need to get lucky and 2 attempts is better than 1.

However, there might be a townie power role and I hate when they get lynched the first day. Also, if the first lynch gets a townie, then 1 wrong vote by a townie on the 2nd day will lose so it's not much of a second chance at scum.

[KevinH]

Unofficial Vote Count.
Kaziocore (2): CanucksDynasty, Kasabian
KevinH (3): Kaziocore, Choashawk, Narsis
Narsis (1): Nerau
No-Lynch (1): KevinH

I have to give townie points to CanucksDynasty, Kasabian, and Nerau for not dropping the hammer vote on me when they had the opportunity.

[CanucksDynasty]

I have to give townie points to CanucksDynasty, Kasabian, and Nerau for not dropping the hammer vote on me when they had the opportunity.

Mafia would be pretty dumb to drop the hammer so soon.
So no...I would not give townie points to any.

In fact...you highlighting this point...gives me scummy vibes.
As if you were trying to earn our favour by giving us townie points.

[KevinH]

Mafia would be pretty dumb to drop the hammer so soon.
So no...I would not give townie points to any.

In fact...you highlighting this point...gives me scummy vibes.
As if you were trying to earn our favour by giving us townie points.

But maybe because you are denying the townie points, you are scum trying to look like a townie. Hmmm ...

[Nerau]

lets take it both ways

if put the hammer vote
day ends early and town/mafia lynch townie likely result in 2 dead next day town jumps on the person with hammer with suspicsion

if doesn't (which didn't happen)
day continues discussion continues

either way its interesting

tho i don't believe it makes a person scum or not just scupious since disscussion is always considered good

[CanucksDynasty]

But maybe because you are denying the townie points, you are scum trying to look like a townie. Hmmm ...

And you are trying to look like a townie by pointing this out. Hmmm....

[Chaoshawk]

You were far less suspicious before you gave out townie points, good job!

[KevinH]

On Day 1, "nobody knows nothing".

Although, everyone has a vote posted, I think some are more lurking than others.
My Day 2 suspicions will be on those that are hiding in the shadows like a werewolf.

[Kaziocore]

I never suggested no-lynch for 2 days.

We need to get lucky to win, but I want to maximize our chances.
Also consider that a cop can provide additional information not available on the first day and that a doc could prevent a night kill.

You must be reading my post wrong
because I was quoting Chaoshawk

[CanucksDynasty]

You were far less suspicious before you gave out townie points, good job!

@Chaoshawk - you still didn't answer my previous question...why did you switch your vote to Narsis?

On Day 1, "nobody knows nothing".Although, everyone has a vote posted, I think some are more lurking than others.My Day 2 suspicions will be on those that are hiding in the shadows like a werewolf.

Double negative.
Nobody knows nothing = somebody knows something