Battlefield:

50% Town | 50% Mafia

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With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch, 3 at deadline. Deadline is Sept 12th.

 

I think my analysis shows that we will not win the battlefield anytime soon, nor will we lose on the battlefield quickly if the top two townies are killed.

 

Day 1 (7-3) no-lynch

Night 1 (7-3) townie night-killed

Day 2 (6-3) lynch based on battlefield shift and possible cop investigation (assume worst case a townie is lynched)

Night 2(5-3) townie night-killed

Day 3 (4-3) lynch or lose but have two battlefield shifts and possibly two cop investigations with which to work

 

Alternatively, if we lynch Day 1:

Night 1 (6-3)

Day 2 (5-3) lynch or lose

Night 2 (4-3)

Day 3 (3-3) game over

 

I would much rather have lynches on Day 2 and 3 with more information.

I would much rather have

What good reason do you have? As far as I know he's always been like this and last time he was mafiaso with his no lynch strategy. I don't think you're mafia but you seem fixated on the belief KevinH is cleared and molestar's vote. I can think of many scenarios of mafia being a top poster, low poster or just in the median. I didn't like Alasadair's flop to join KevinH's no lynch nor has he really said much besides his wish not to be targeted by scum.

 

Vote Alasadair

 

You don't like it, huh? Like Ccabal said, it's called a placeholder vote. And personally, I prefer to listen and observe.... I see no reason to repeat what others have already said.

 

I'm remaining no-lynch for now. Maybe someone will catch my eye more than Canuck's or Mole. One of you will probably end up getting my first vote, though.

- Could you share those reasons with us for KevinH being town?

 

 

I'll wait a few more days to see if any other townie has picked up on the hint KevinH left.

Unless KevinH didn't leave a hint...then I'm totally whacked.

@Everyone else - what do you think of my thoughts on KevinH and my suspicions on mole/ccabal/chaos?

 

Well about KevinH...

My gut tells me he's townie because he's

advocating a pro-townie strategy and because

of ??.

 

While about Mole,

I don't really get it why he thinks getting the update is bad.

When we get the update, we still can scum hunt anyway

and it's suspicious for me that he just gave up defending

his strategy when Martino voted him...

 

And CD I get what you're trying to tell but I'm not sure if the scum knows it too!!!

Anyway I could vote him right now but that would end the day immediately unless

we don't need anymore some discussion.

 

Unfortunately I'm not sure who the other scum might be...

Alasdair and possibly Kasabian are just suspicious they look like

they're lurking

Just found out I got confused by the definition of spread out

I though spread out means so that everybody has almost the same posts

Martino has made 4 posts.

 

...

Exactly, so I suggest nobody starts spamming. I'd hate to have to reread every post and determine whether it is meaningful when I want to do a postcount. As CD noticed, the same goes for double posts. Please don't do it unless you desperately need to get information out right at that moment/

... However, this splitting of posts already makes the thread a little harder to reread, so if someone were to start spamming it up, it would be even harder.

Actually, they could just post all their info in one post instead of double or triple posting. ...

... Anyway I am last on the postcount, so I suppose one more post won't matter that much.

 

... So sure the mechanism may be designed to encourage activity, but there is no way we will win this game with activity. However, we can win this game by using the battlefield update to get an idea about the top posters.

 

... Anyway, I'm starting to think that it is not so much that you don't see the value in the strategy, but that you know it will harm you. (mole)

 

While I disagree with the premise of limiting posts, I agree that we won't win with activity. His rationale for his vote on mole is appropriate, but is it distancing?

 

With only four posts, I might consider it lurking.

 

We won't win with activity, but we could lose with inactivity!

And CD I get what you're trying to tell but I'm not sure if the scum knows it too!!!

 

Then you saw the hint too?

I don't want to lose ground. If we keep townies alive, then they can post and hold ground. If we lynch with a 7/10 chance of getting a townie, we are hurting ourselves.

 

I would like to see the demise of those that are against the pro-town strategy.

Why do you need to demonstrate that you're not fixated? Finding someone you think is scummy and persuing them is a good thing, as long as it's not overdone.

Have you considered anyone else? Why only us 2?

 

This is how I see it: we probably have 3 mafia. They probably operate using different strategies eg. 1 being very active, the other 2 lurking OR 2 being active and 1 lurking. So I think the "top 3" has at least 1 scum in it. Since I really don't think it's Canucks, that leaves the 2 of you.

I'll wait a few more days to see if any other townie has picked up on the hint KevinH left.

Unless KevinH didn't leave a hint...then I'm totally whacked.

 

I think i saw that hint as well, bad bad mistake he made.

 

Not lurking , RL has been hard lately.

 

From my point of view i found out that everyone but Kaziocore has agree to help out by no doubleposting and spamming, is like you don't want to help out us all hunt the scums.

 

Im sure you know who the scums are ....

It doesn't matter that kevinH is advocating a pro-town strategy , keep in mind that he said in a previous post that he play pro-town wheter if he is a scum or not.

 

Probably because he wanted to request an update at almost the very beginning while they were actually showing something?

 

Well, flip-flopping votes is probably not how people usually play this game, and I understand if it might seem suspicious. However, this is my first game, so cut me some slack But! If I were mafia...I'd definately try to lay low and not draw attention to myself by changing votes so often. I'd probably throw out 1 vote near the end of the round, with some moderate reasoning.

 

the previous game of this was my very first game as well, and still the players came againts me, i had to defend myself and well i did it well because i won, so my point is, try to keep it up with all and you will learn everything quick, hasty decisions doesn't lead you to anything good , it may lead you to kill a townie if you aren't too careful with who you vote for.

 

About CD again, he's always saying he's a townie, trying to get into our mind , i have some reasons to think he's hiding something, i may be wrong, but in this game, it's hard to believe who each other is, scum may play a trick againts you.

 

Btw I shall vote closer to deadline as i see fit . for now, i'll place my suspicious who i think i may be wrong but now it'll be my move

 

FoS: CanucksDinasty

This time I really am a townie. Trust me.

 

CD plays a good game and fools me frequently. I'm going to have alot of angst if he is the top poster and doesn't get night-killed. It will be particularly true that if he's alive and it's Day 2, he must be scum. Of course, the real scum know this, too, so they might let him live just to give me angst.

Referencing to the second quote in Kasa's post, I didn't agree to that system either, but for the simple reason that I don't really care to change how often I post and how many times in a row.

 

Although I also agree that there's at least one scumbag in the top 3, or at least the top few. Such would be the odds. Maybe there's reason for them to limit their posting amounts right now, maybe there isn't... but if I were scum I'd honestly be posting lots to get up further in the field.

 

Then again, that's just me.

While I think there is an incentive to post, I don't think it will dramatically change players' styles.

I'm usually a fairly active poster, but somebody who doesn't post as much will probably continue that pace.

 

I don't think it's as big deal to double post or not meet some quality standard. If the post doesn't count, then nothing is lost, other than the ability to get an exact count by player.

Then you saw the hint too?

 

Want me to quote it or just tell what page the hint is?

 

Although I also agree that there's at least one scumbag in the top 3, or at least the top few. Such would be the odds. Maybe there's reason for them to limit their posting amounts right now, maybe there isn't... but if I were scum I'd honestly be posting lots to get up further in the field.

 

Which is really surprising because you're doing the opposite :/

Well maybe they don't even need to reach the top 3 posts since even in the middle, their posts get multiplied anyway

and less spotlight is given to them.

"The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemies." -Napoleon Bonaparte

 

The "First of the Game" VC

 

molestargazer (3) - Nerau, CanucksDynsaty, ccabal86

Alasdair (2) - Kaziocore, ChaosHawk

No Lynch (2) - KevinH, Alasdair

KevinH (1) - molestargazer

 

Not voting (2) - Kasabian, Martino

 

Note: i'll be prodding Kasabian.

I'm pretty certain I voted mole as well. Anyway, just to confirm

vote molestargazer

 

I'm still convinced that he is scum. The proposed strategy was clearly in favor of the town and he is more than experienced enough to recognize that. It could have been a matter of principle, but then you would expect him to mention this himself and I feel a postgame discussion would have been the more appropriate place to discuss this. Secondly, his vote for KevinH is suspicious as well:

I understand where you're coming from.

However. It's an anti-town strategy, it's scummy, so I'm voting for it.

Mole knows that KevinH always votes no lynch, so it isn't scummy at all. I absolutely agree that it is an anti-town strategy. But just lynching him for voting no lynch is anti-town to the same degree since that would be a completely random lynch.

 

On top of that there are a few things he seemed unaware about that he should have known as a townie. Overall I'm feeling really good about my vote for mole.

 

@KevinH

Yes, I am not very active, but then I never am on D1. Later in the game there usually is a lot more to discuss than on D1. Though I have to say it has been a pretty good D1 so far.

 

@CD I agree with your list of townies. I can't say I remember one specific post by KevinH that convinced me he was town, but he did seem pro town so far. I could reread his posts, but maybe it would be better if someone else did, since I think I've already done a few things to indicate that I am a townie.

Mole knows that KevinH always votes no lynch' date=' so it isn't scummy at all. I absolutely agree that it is an anti-town strategy. But just lynching him for voting no lynch is anti-town to the same degree since that would be a completely random lynch.[/quote']

If you know me that well, you'll I tend to vote KevinH as a matter of principle when he does this - or at least, I tended to in the past. Let's say I'm bringing back the tradition.

I'm still convinced that he is scum. The proposed strategy was clearly in favor of the town and he is more than experienced enough to recognize that. It could have been a matter of principle, but then you would expect him to mention this himself and I feel a postgame discussion would have been the more appropriate place to discuss this. Secondly, his vote for KevinH is suspicious as well:

 

No. No. Just, no.

Whilst the strategy meant well, and it was (probably) submitted with the town in mind, it would not have worked! Which I'm sure I've explained several times over. Please go back and read what I'm saying and counteract my points before mindlessly voting me claiming my experience would be enough to make me want to use it.

Want me to quote it or just tell what page the hint is?

 

I'm fairly confident your townie cuz you wanted the update right away like me.

I want the other person who said they saw it too...

 

@Kasabian...can you tell me what page the hint is on?

IF Kasabian can confirm the same page that I saw the hint on then these are the people I think are town...

 

Townies

CD

KevinH

Kaziocore

Kasabian

Martino

If you know me that well, you'll I tend to vote KevinH as a matter of principle when he does this - or at least, I tended to in the past. Let's say I'm bringing back the tradition.

I can't say I remember you always voting for KevinH. You may have voted for him on a few occasions, but I don't remember it being a habit.

 

No. No. Just, no.

Whilst the strategy meant well, and it was (probably) submitted with the town in mind, it would not have worked! Which I'm sure I've explained several times over. Please go back and read what I'm saying and counteract my points before mindlessly voting me claiming my experience would be enough to make me want to use it.

I have already countered your arguments in my 4th post. But it felt like you were grasping at straws at the time. You were listing a whole lot of things that could possible go wrong. The top 3 MIGHT not have enough time to keep posting a lot, the other townies MIGHT be too impatient to wait two days before posting, we MAY not have the same idea about what a content post is as the mod. However, the more likely scenario is that we would have gotten a very decent indication about the alignment of the top 3. Sure the gap between the top 3 and the rest may not have been as big as we wanted it, but we could have worked on getting it reasonably large. Sure some of the top 3's posts might have been discounted. But in the end, we would have had a top 3 with clearly more posts than the others. Having the balance clearly in favor of the scum would have indicated 2 scum, clearly in favor of the town would have indicated 3 town and neutral would have indicated one scum. The exact numbers didn't really matter all that much.

 

@CD I've had another look at his posts and I have found the one you were talking about. I suggest Kasabian mentions the page and Kazio tells him whether he is right.

I can't say I remember you always voting for KevinH. You may have voted for him on a few occasions, but I don't remember it being a habit.

I did it quite a lot, anyway. *shrug*

 

 

I have already countered your arguments in my 4th post. But it felt like you were grasping at straws at the time. You were listing a whole lot of things that could possible go wrong. The top 3 MIGHT not have enough time to keep posting a lot, the other townies MIGHT be too impatient to wait two days before posting, we MAY not have the same idea about what a content post is as the mod. However, the more likely scenario is that we would have gotten a very decent indication about the alignment of the top 3. Sure the gap between the top 3 and the rest may not have been as big as we wanted it, but we could have worked on getting it reasonably large. Sure some of the top 3's posts might have been discounted. But in the end, we would have had a top 3 with clearly more posts than the others. Having the balance clearly in favor of the scum would have indicated 2 scum, clearly in favor of the town would have indicated 3 town and neutral would have indicated one scum. The exact numbers didn't really matter all that much.

 

- Exactly. Those things could have severely affected it, and one of them probably would have.

- I disagree. There are so many different ways that scum can affect the balance (I'll give examples if you wish), it was essentially WIFOM and completely and utterly useless - unless the result tipped MAJORLY torwards scum or MAJORTLY towards town - which, again, is very unlikely. I still stand by my stance that it wouldn't have worked.

- Which would mean that people other than the Top 3 could've played quite a major part in tipping the balance - meaning we would quite happily lynch one of the top 3 when it might not have been them at all which tipped the balance.

@CD I've had another look at his posts and I have found the one you were talking about. I suggest Kasabian mentions the page and Kazio tells him whether he is right.

 

I'm fine with that.

 

@Kasabian and Kaziocore - can you please do as Martino mentioned?

Yeah sure.

I'll just have to wait for Kasabian.

There have been exceptions to my Day 1 no-lynch stance.

 

This game is not one of them. I thought I made a conclusive proof that by lynching on Day 1, we are most likely ending the game after Day 2 unless we beat the odds and lynch a scum.

 

We know we'll have more information on days 2 and 3.

We won't accidently lynch a townie power role.

 

This is as pro-town as it gets!

There have been exceptions to my Day 1 no-lynch stance.

 

This game is not one of them. I thought I made a conclusive proof that by lynching on Day 1, we are most likely ending the game after Day 2 unless we beat the odds and lynch a scum.

 

We know we'll have more information on days 2 and 3.

We won't accidently lynch a townie power role.

 

This is as pro-town as it gets!

 

We do get additional information via the battlefield (maybe more if we have a cop).

So no-lynch may be an option.

 

Right now the front-runner of being lynched is molestargazer.

I don't get a warm and fuzzy from him.