569 replies to this topic

[CanucksDynasty]

Checked the posts counts and they seem correct...

End of D1:
49 CanucksDynasty
36 KevinH
26 molestargazer
19 Chaoshawk
16 ccabal86
14 Kaziocore
12 Martino
10 Nerau
9 Alasdair
8 Kasabian

Total post count = 199

Let
T = townie post count
M = mafia post count

T + M = 199

T / (T + M*7/3) = 60.5%

Solving:
T = 155.5
M = 43.5

CH(19)+AL(9)+NE(10)=38
CH(19)+AL(9)+KC(14)=42

For NE or KC to be mafia...some posts don't count...most likely KevinH and me (CD).

End of D2:
Alive
78 CanucksDynasty
35 molestargazer
32 ccabal86
32 Chaoshawk
26 Kaziocore
24 Martino
19 Nerau

Dead
71 KevinH
34 Kasabian
14 Alasdair


2nd day post count = +166
1st count = +199
Killed Players' post count = -119
Total: 246

Let
T = townie post count
M = mafia post count

T + M = 246

T / (T + M*5/2) = 56.4%

Solving:
T = 187.898
M = 58.1018

CH(32)+KC(26)=58
CH(32)+NE(19)=51
Since some posts don't count...the math shows that Nerau is probably mafia

End of D3:
78 + 6 = 84 CanucksDynasty
35 + 1 = 36 molestargazer
32 + 4 = 36 ccabal86
26 + 2 = 28 Kaziocore
19 + 2 = 21 Nerau

Dead
71 KevinH
32 + 6 = 38 Chaoshawk
34 Kasabian
24 + 4 = 28 Martino
14 Alasdair

Town 73.9% : 26.1% Mafia

Let
T = townie post count
M = mafia post count

T + M = 205

T / (T + M*4) = 73.9%

Solving:
T = 188.368
M = 16.63

Again...taking into consideration that some townie posts don't count...
Closest would be Nerau with 19 posts.

Strikes against Nerau...
1. On D1...he didn't want to go with the plan of limiting posts to separate the top 3 posters.
2. As ccabal86 posted...CH doesn't mention Nerau as a possible suspect.
3. On D2...he was fingered by Martino who was just nk'd


A 3rd party is most unlikely given that it would mean the town only had 1 power-role (doc).
So most likely we have a pro-town vigilante.

[CanucksDynasty]

So between Kaziocore and Nerau I would have to....


Vote: Nerau

[ccabal86]

I definately agree that Nerau is the more suspicious one. I however, would still advise our Vigilante not to target anyone during the night. If we happen to miss today, we still have 1 more day to get the mafia.

Vote: Nerau

[CanucksDynasty]

I definately agree that Nerau is the more suspicious one. I however, would still advise our Vigilante not to target anyone during the night. If we happen to miss today, we still have 1 more day to get the mafia.

Vote: Nerau

Unless Nerau happens to be the vigilante...
Knowing my luck (as I had wanted to lynch Kasa our doc)...he probably is.

[Kaziocore]

Then Nerau it is

Vote: Nerau

[Narsis]

With three votes on Nerau he's dead.

and was the last mafia member.

yay the town wins and the game is over.

sorry for no flavour and lack of other stuff but right now isnt a good time for me...feel free to talk, discuss, and share thoughts.

[Kasabian]

Congrats townies!

Ha! was right about CH and nerau from the beggining!

[Chaoshawk]

I was sarcastic about the last guy knowing not to get caught , Nerau is scummy even when hes a townie. Good game guys, it was fun round.

[Nerau]

I was sarcastic about the last guy knowing not to get caught , Nerau is scummy even when hes a townie. Good game guys, it was fun round.

shush you

2nd time i am mafia the games has a different rule set

conquindence maybe?

[CanucksDynasty]

Congrats townies!Ha! was right about CH and nerau from the beggining!

Yes you were.
Sorry you had to die but at least the town won right?

I was sarcastic about the last guy knowing not to get caught , Nerau is scummy even when hes a townie. Good game guys, it was fun round.

The battlefield really did give the town an edge though.
We were able to zero in on some people right away.

shush you2nd time i am mafia the games has a different rule setconquindence maybe?

That is also what makes the games fun.
If it was always the same...then it would get kinda boring.


Good game everyone.
And good job of modding to Narsis.

@Mole - please update the win/loss thread.

[Nerau]

yea i agree with that totallly i just want the roles to get mixed up a bit more that is all

[Kaziocore]

Hehehehe
I'm the vigilante!

I wanna play another game with a role.

[Narsis]

Yes you were.
Sorry you had to die but at least the town won right?



The battlefield really did give the town an edge though.
We were able to zero in on some people right away.



That is also what makes the games fun.
If it was always the same...then it would get kinda boring.


Good game everyone.
And good job of modding to Narsis.

@Mole - please update the win/loss thread.

actually the town made two incorrect assumptions regarding the battlefield. i'm actually somewhat still surprised you managed to catch scum using it after day 1...

Edit: and for the record: Kaziocore was a 1-shot vig.

Edited by Narsis, 14 October 2010 - 01:57 PM.

[CanucksDynasty]

Kaz was the vig?

Then what the hell was mole?
I thought he was the vig.


Mole - time to explain.

[CanucksDynasty]

Hehehehe
I'm the vigilante!

I wanna play another game with a role.

What tip you off to shoot Alasdair?

[CanucksDynasty]

actually the town made two incorrect assumptions regarding the battlefield. i'm actually somewhat still surprised you managed to catch scum using it after day 1...

Edit: and for the record: Kaziocore was a 1-shot vig.

That's pretty funny if we used the battlefield incorrectly but still managed to lynch scum.
What were the wrong assumptions?

[Martino]

Hehehehe
I'm the vigilante!

I wanna play another game with a role.

First of all, well played. I think you have improved greatly since the last time we played together. You had some highly valuable posts and of course you made a great decision to take out Alasdair. Overal, I'd say the calmer style makes you a much better player. Of course it is easier to stay calm if you don't catch any flack . I'd like to echo CD's question though. Why Alas? After the Kasa lynch, I was convinced that the scum were 3 out of CH, Ccabal, Nerau and Alas. CH was, of course, confirmed and out of the others, I would have picked Ccabal and Nerau over Alas. Not by much, but they were slightly higher on my scum radar. What made you go for Alas?

[Narsis]

i also need to give some serious congratz to ccabal. this was his first game i believe, but he made some great posts and excellent points.

as for the assumptions...:

First: post counts. yes there are some posts that i haven't counted. so the numbers they are using aren't completely accurate(although they are more or less within 5 posts per person).

Second: an assumption about how the battlefield percentages work. everyone so far has assumed that the modifier for the number of mafia posts is based on living players. however there is something they are missing:

ok let's assume for the sake of argument that there are 5 townies and 2 mafia left alive. if their assumption is correct and both the town and mafia have the exact same average number of posts, then what will the battlefield percentage be? here's a hint: it's 50%.

so then what happens if later in the game we have 1 townie and 2 mafia left alive. and again they have the exact same average number of posts. then what's the percentage? well guess what...it's 50%.

so we have a problem here. in order for the mafia to win they'd either need to kill all the townies or the win percentage for them would need to be around 60% or 55%. however, if it's that low then it'd be very easy for the mafia to win just by posting more than the townies. so then the townies win percentage would need to be low as well, 60% or maybe 70%. but now again if the town happens to overpower the mafia's posting, then they'll get an easy and early win. which leads to a very swingy game.

so i will allow you guys to try to figure out what the exact problem is with that assumption.

[CanucksDynasty]

So what it really means is that mafia posts will always be multiplied by 7/3.
Is that correct?

[Kaziocore]

Day 1: 7-3
Day 2: 7-3
Night 2: 6-3

=================
I. Successful Kill
Day 3: 5-2
Day 4: 4-1

II. Failed Kill
Day 3: 4-3
Day 4: 3-2

III. Without Kill
Day 3: 5-3
Day 4: 4-2

I was actually thinking whether to use my kill now or later at that time.
What motivated me is that between II and III, the former has less people
which means more chances of getting the mafia.

Also, at that time I'm not yet convinced that Ccabal is really a scum (a little but not that much).
If I did not kill and the game leads to III and Ccabal was lynched, we will lose.

I chose Alasdair, although I was also thinking of killing Nerau, because
he was inactive and I'm afraid that later in the game, no one would vote them
because people have nothing posts really to analyze.
If I'm wrong, at least there's one less suspect for me.

From time to time, I'm tempted to give hints that I'm a vigilante especially
when it was told that there could be a serial killer.
I wanted to say that you're wrong or something

And thanks again Martino. I became conscious of what I post.
Unfortunately, this led to my suspicion of Kasabian which
led to his death.

Anyways, great game guys!