544 replies to this topic

[CanucksDynasty]

Well, that's great, assume it's me without any evidence whatsoever. Pure genius.

It wasn't me, I'm not scum, but by all means if you want to win the game for the scum go ahead and lynch me.

I don't even know what to say anymore, half the time the reasons I see given for casting a vote make no sense whatsoever.

Well who do you suspect?

[CanucksDynasty]

Your thoughts guys?
I believe TED is the last mafia member.
Aside from all the things discussed before,
the latest visitors of a certain person increased
my confidence that I am right.

Vote: Tactical Evil Dan

And to TED: Why the little kid !!!

Who's the visitor?

[Tactical Evil Dan]

Well who do you suspect?

Preston is my chief suspect. Of the people remaining, I know I'm not scum and you and Kaziocore have done something to clearly demonstrate your townieness.

Preston is definitely the better player, and my hat is off to him. He's gone most of the game without a serious challenge to his towniness, and without a power role to play.

[CanucksDynasty]

@Preston - who do you suspect?

[Preston]

I find it very strange that they targetted ccabal... he's one of the few I was uncertain about, and by removing him AND proving him town I dont think scum did themselves any favors. I'd frankly expected CD to be the next one killed. Were they afraid ccabal might have discovered something last night? I'll be interested in hearing a better description of ccabal's role from mole when this is all over.

So there are four people left; time to do a little brief analysis.

Kazio - Claimed "First-aid Lifeguard". Revived KevinH for a day.
CD - Claimed "One-shot Security Guard". Detected movement on night 1. Led attack on Kasabian and EM based on movement; one mafia, one not.
TED - Claimed vanilla townie during analysis of EM's role.
Preston - Claimed "Cowardly Lifeguard" vote restriction.

We have two that have demonstrated their roles and two that have no means of doing so.

Of the two roles demonstrated, the question in my mind is whether either are roles scum would even possibly be given.

CD's "One-shot Security Guard" has been confirmed in so much as it DID detect movement on night 1. He led a strong attack on both EM and Kasabian. Kasabian was indeed scum, but it COULD have been an intentional sacrifice. The manner in which EM roleclaimed didn't do much to help his case, but there wasnt much choice there - and CD had a valid reason to believe EM was scum based on movement. KevinH did contact CD on the first night, and if CD was scum then that might've gotten KevinH killed sooner - less mod-confirming of his role. I think the final bit is that if CD was actually scum, then the town would have had NO investigative role at all - no cop, etc. So I think this means CD is safe.

Kazio's "first aid lifeguard" claim was never done in a lot of detail - but it DID work. This could fill the role of a doc, since the town doesnt really have others based on the skill list. I am inclined to believe this is not a scum ability because it gave town another vote for the day - and if CD /had/ been killed prior to using his role, Kazio could have revived him to hear investigation results.

This leaves TED and myself. Neither of us have a means to "prove" our towniness based on claimed roles; mine limits my vote and TED has claimed no role at all.

I am town - It's not like I can say otherwise - but beyond that I've been putting a lot of time into picking this game apart in general and doing analysis of... well, everything. Perhaps more importantly, on day 2 when I was cross-examining CD's roleclaim I got him to shift his initial focus away from EM and onto Kasabian first - when it would have been so much easier to CD's attack on EM continue if I had been scum and known EM was town. When CD gave us two targets, had the first proven town then his credibility would have been very much in question.

By this math, if I assume CD and Kazio are town and exclude myself, then the only one remaining is TED. I've FoS'd him in the past (I'll go look up past reasons later), so in theory this should not be a problem.

However, I hesitate a little because (1) TED seems a little too obvious of a target and (2) because scum's choice of killing ccabal last night makes no sense to me.

Regarding (1): TED claimed vanilla townie to try and put EM away, yes. But AKCPLUTO also claimed vanilla townie, effectively aligning the two of them as being the only two NOT claiming roles. Maybe AKCPLUTO just made a mistake... but having the last two scum be the two claiming vanilla seems a little too convenient.

Regarding (2): ccabal was one of the few unproven roles. That he HAD a role was confirmed, and that he should have shown up on night 1 was confirmed. Mole explicitly did NOT confirm if he was town or not. I was moderately vocal as being on the fence between him and TED being scum - and then he gets killed, reducing my list to one target. This makes me second-guess my analysis somewhat. CD would have been a better target. The only reason I can see their having targetted ccabal is if his curious child role could have given information to identify the final scum - but after three nights with no information I dont know if the fourth was any more likely.

So I'll take a step back again and re-examine. By the numbers assuming CD and kazio are town, we have four main roles, two semi-useful roles, and two useless roles: cop, roleblocker, vigilante, reviver are useful, friendly neighbor and curious child are semi-useful, insomniac and cowardly lifeguard are useless. Ccabal's and EM's roles actively interfere with our lone cop, and my vote limitation affects our lynching process. If CD and kazio are town, then this is indeed a game with no vanilla townies.

Scum was shown to have one goon and one roleblocker, and I presume the third that remains is the godfather equivalent - possibly with some sort of powerful ability to influence their night kills, like a role cop maybe (they DID get our roleblocker and vigilante first).

I see two possibilities, then.
1) TED is scum, kazio is town: we have no vanilla townies, and Kazio's ability is indeed our doc equivalent.
2) TED is town, Kazio is scum: TED is our lone vanilla townie to match scum's lone goon, and kazio's revival was a scum ability intended to fake prove towniness or revive someone who suspected another townie.

I am inclined to believe option 1 at present, but I'll wait and see what else happens before voting. We need a majority of 3 today, right?

Oh, and note: You're not doing yourself any favors with your show of despair there TED. And Kazio's immediate vote bears examination, though as I said - he's the only option left if CD and Kazio are town.

-Preston

P.S. Slightly offtopic: Kazio, do you check this from an iphone or something? Both you and someone else I'm too lazy to look up always seem to have your lines cut to a very short width.

[CanucksDynasty]

@Preston - I pretty much agree with your post. But it's mafia janitor not roleblocker. As far as I'm aware...the janitor removes the identity of a lynched person or nightkilled. Not sure why that power wasn't used at all. It would raised more questions and doubt.

[CanucksDynasty]

@Preston - yes it is 3 votes to lynch. And given your restrictions, you must be either the 1st or 2nd voter.

[Kaziocore]

I'm referring to Mole's profile. He visited his profile at night.
I think that's coincident enough. And as far as I'm concerned,
I voted TED because I'm sure he's the mafia (I'm also convinced
both of you guys are townie). We need three votes anyway for
a lynch to happen so you guys have all the time to decide for yourselves.

[CanucksDynasty]

I'm referring to Mole's profile. He visited his profile at night.
I think that's coincident enough. And as far as I'm concerned,
I voted TED because I'm sure he's the mafia (I'm also convinced
both of you guys are townie). We need three votes anyway for
a lynch to happen so you guys have all the time to decide for yourselves.

What the heck are you talking about? Mole's profile at night? Sorry...I'm a bit confused.

[Tactical Evil Dan]

Oh, and note: You're not doing yourself any favors with your show of despair there TED.

There literally hasn't been anything I've been able to do all game to do myself any favors. Every single thing I've said has either been ignored or twisted somehow.

[Kaziocore]

What the heck are you talking about? Mole's profile at night? Sorry...I'm a bit confused.

http://www.iron-command.com/forum/index.php?showuser=246

Latest Visitors
Tactical Evil Dan
16 Mar 2011

[Preston]

http://www.iron-command.com/forum/index.php?showuser=246

Latest Visitors
Tactical Evil Dan
16 Mar 2011

I'm sorry, maybe I'm missing something here - how is this relevant?

-Preston

[Kaziocore]

I'm sorry, maybe I'm missing something here - how is this relevant?

-Preston

That date is important.
I was thinking maybe it was to message Mole on who to nk.
Actually even without this, I'm still inclined to vote TED.
This only confirmed by belief.

[CanucksDynasty]

That date is important.
I was thinking maybe it was to message Mole on who to nk.
Actually even without this, I'm still inclined to vote TED.
This only confirmed by belief.

I don't think that would be a good indicator. I've logged on every day to see what was going on in the game. I usually indicate when people view the mafia thread but chose not to post.

[Tactical Evil Dan]

http://www.iron-command.com/forum/index.php?showuser=246

Latest Visitors
Tactical Evil Dan
16 Mar 2011

Oh, for crying out loud...

This is exactly what I'm talking about, Preston.

[Preston]

I don't think that would be a good indicator. I've logged on every day to see what was going on in the game. I usually indicate when people view the mafia thread but chose not to post.

You dont need to view someone's profile in order to send them a PM - when I was scum last game there was a shared PM conversation between the game mod (narsis) and all the scum for them to talk outside of the game thread, and they could just reply in there for their night actions. So yeah, I dont think this is a good indicator.

I do have one other question for you kaziocore - I dont remember if you ever specified it, but was your revival role a one-shot ability or could you do it again today to revive ccabal?

-Preston

[Kaziocore]

You dont need to view someone's profile in order to send them a PM - when I was scum last game there was a shared PM conversation between the game mod (narsis) and all the scum for them to talk outside of the game thread, and they could just reply in there for their night actions. So yeah, I dont think this is a good indicator.

I do have one other question for you kaziocore - I dont remember if you ever specified it, but was your revival role a one-shot ability or could you do it again today to revive ccabal?

-Preston

It's a one-shot ability just like most of the roles we have.
And you do have a point but my bet is still on TED unless
either one of you guys are great in pretending to be a townie

[CanucksDynasty]

For me, it all boils down to TED or Preston being mafia. Cuz kaz and I proved our towniness with our abilities.

Given all the small weak roles...I doubt there is a plain vanilla townie role. So whenever Preston wants to cast that 2nd vote on TED...I'll place that 3rd vote.

[Preston]

For me, it all boils down to TED or Preston being mafia. Cuz kaz and I proved our towniness with our abilities.

Given all the small weak roles...I doubt there is a plain vanilla townie role. So whenever Preston wants to cast that 2nd vote on TED...I'll place that 3rd vote.

At this point, no matter how much I analyze things the answer won't get any clearer. All I can say is that if either CD or Kazio are scum, then a) mole was being sadistic in assigning roles and you have played a very good game. I'm going to go with my gut on this one, and hope that we've picked a winner for town.

Vote: Tactical Evil Dan

Moment of truth; let's see what happens.

-Preston

[CanucksDynasty]

vote: Tactical Evil Dan

Come on town