761 replies to this topic

[CanucksDynasty]

What are everyone else's thought on the recent posts?

VOTE COUNT
d3mon (4): ccabal86, CanucksDynasty, TerrorChrist, CaoCao
ccabal86 (2): Nerau, Electric Mango
KevinH (2): Narsis, Herodez
TerrorChrist (1): d3mon
CanucksDynasty (1): KevinH

Not Voting (1): Preston

With 11 Alive, 6 is needed to lynch.

Edited by molestargazer, 14 April 2011 - 08:03 PM.

[Electric Mango]

My thoughts are already out and documented, who else?

[KevinH]

I think CD has as much chance of being scum as d3mon. Both about 3/11.

Also think Preston has made some weak arguments against d3mon so I think he has a 3/11 chance of being scum, too.because

Despite my vote on CD, I don't think he should be lynched. I want him around to comment on the NHL playoffs.

My point is that d3mon didn't do anything that scummy and those that are pressuring him are acting against the interests of the town, which is scummy.

I have a weak townie role. That's worth disclosing because it might influence somebody's reasoning on whether there could be a security guard just like the last game.

I believe d3mon and I don't want him lynched and I don't want him night-killed. We have the voting patterns from day 1 whether or not we actually go through with a lynch.

If d3mon is proven to be a townie then you can add suspicion to those that have voted for him thus far.

If I get night-killed, you can blame CanucksDynasty.

[ccabal86]

If d3mon is proven to be a townie then you can add suspicion to those that have voted for him thus far.

But how do we prove him townie? Give him a chance to use his ability, post whatever he finds then lynch him on day 2?

[Preston]

@CD: I've been quite verbose on my thoughts to this point, but I'm going to respond to KevinH.

Also, my thoughts on d3mon's posts are that if he was going to say "my role is exactly as presented in the past game's role PM, linked here" he could have said that far earlier and far more clearly and not seemed half as suspicious for being so evasive.

Also think Preston has made some weak arguments against d3mon so I think he has a 3/11 chance of being scum, too.because

Cut/paste fail here?
I've put a lot of thought into all of my analysis thus far... and it kinda irks me to see it all being shrugged off as 'weak'. I'd invite you to offer specific critique so that I could address what you thought was weak, but when you did that you only attacked the 'he could be scum' portion of my scenarios instead of considering them both at the same time.

Despite my vote on CD, I don't think he should be lynched. I want him around to comment on the NHL playoffs.
...
My point is that d3mon didn't do anything that scummy and those that are pressuring him are acting against the interests of the town, which is scummy.
...
I believe d3mon and I don't want him lynched and I don't want him night-killed. We have the voting patterns from day 1 whether or not we actually go through with a lynch.
...
If d3mon is proven to be a townie then you can add suspicion to those that have voted for him thus far.

Dont vote unless you're prepared to stand behind it. You already had a very long post attacking CD, and backing off here is the opposite of that. Day 1 lynch is for voting records, vote for real.

I am prepared to stand behind my vote, and I've been very vocal about my thought process to date. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and you can type your all-caps told you so - but despite the numbers I feel he has a better-than-even chance of being scum due to his behavior.

I agree that d3mon's initial rapidfire accusations and pressing the attack on TC for a flavour comment was only mildly suspicious - that I was leaning towards an inactive instead speaks to how mild it was at the time - but it made him stand out some. It was only when d3mon became defensive and dropped a role hint that he tipped his hand and changed the day's game into being all about him. Everyone 'pressuring' him was pushing for information - basically saying that since he'd started to roleclaim he had to finish it - and his very evasiveness made him all the more suspicious. When he finally roleclaimed, his possibly being the security guard was huge - very much a double-or-nothing, and we're screwed if he dies and he really IS our cop. But at one point he said he'd give up and die without a roleclaim - to me that is the biggest inconsistency of all if he actually is the security guard, as it treats his role/life/death as not being that relevant when it very much SHOULD be:

So, in all, the question for me is... Do you want to be lynched on day 1 or day 2? I will take day 1 with no role claim.

There's one more facet to all this that I think bears mentioning - the whole concept that there may be roles in this game from the past game originated from d3mon when he said that he was a survivor role to defend himself. When he claimed, he claimed a verbatim role from the previous game. It's a neat way of sidestepping the usual question of "what kind of fake roles would fit into the flavor of this new game" - say you're someone from the previous game. You don't have to be creative and it's already given that role is plausible because it DID exist, so people cant attack whether or not your role concept fits the game or other forms of consistency.

I have a weak townie role. That's worth disclosing because it might influence somebody's reasoning on whether there could be a security guard just like the last game.

You could be lying, but you're saying it BEFORE suspicion has actively fallen upon you so you're more likely to be believed at present. Per my above, we cant say that security guard ISNT possible - it's an established part of this game series' history; we just dont know if mole decided to carry over the survivors or not.

At the end of the previous game, mole expressed thoughts that the town's advantages had not been sufficiently balanced by its disadvantages. I'll link his post here instead of quoting it; it's not a PM, but either way this is safer rulewise
http://www.iron-command.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=25127&view=findpost&p=386527
I would not be surprised to see vanilla townies in this game per CD's claim, nor would I be surprised to see 'weak' roles per your claim. I do not dispute that a security guard is possible, but I have a hard time believing that d3mon would have that role due to how easily he was willing to give it up today.

Overall I am rethinking my position about KevinH having pro-town vibes due to the earlier bandwagon on him. I understand no-lynch and I understand being cautious, but I do have difficulty seeing how you can just flat-out ignore the way d3mon has behaved. I also dont see how you can ignore the idea that letting a suspected scum both live and choose our day 2 lynch candidates would be bad for the town.

If you respect numbers, go back and reread my post with scenarios for testing d3mon's roleclaim. To paraphrase:
To test d3mon we would have to go with ONE of his suggested lynch targets on day 2.
1) If he's scum, it will be a townie that dies.
2) if he's town AND security guard and gets a list with as many false positives as CD did last game (3 town and 1 scum moved on night 1), then he would have a 75% chance of falsely picking a townie. This would look the same as if he was scum.
3) If he's town AND security guard AND gets a lucky correct-guess scum lynch out of his movement list, THEN he would be confirmed town.

If he is town and fakeclaiming - even to try and draw scum nightkill - then its basically scenario 2 with the whole rest of the town as false positives since he cannot produce a valid list.

I'll be generous and assume the same 2:1 false positives CD got on day 2 last game (kevin & EM town, kaziocore scum) instead of the 3:1 he SHOULD have gotten if ccabal was included.

In terms of numbers:
Odds of scenario 1 = 3/11 (chance of d3mon being mafia) = 27.3%
Odds of scenario 2 = 8/11(assume town/guard if not mafia) * 2/3 (chance of town lynch @ 2:1 false positive rate) = 16/33 = 48.5%
Odds of scenario 3 = 8/11(assume town/guard if not mafia) * 1/3 (chance of scum lynch @ 2:1 false positive rate) = 8/33 = 24.2%

Both scenarios 1 and 2 are highly detrimental to town, resulting in 3 townie deaths. Following day 2 townie lynch on both (1) and (2) we would likely lynch d3mon for 'proving' scum, and in case (2) this would largely finish the game for town.
27.3% + 48.5% = 75.8% chance of town basically losing IF we let d3mon live and test him
24.2% chance of d3mon proving true and town benefitting.

The choice seems pretty clear to me.

Vote: d3mon

-Preston

[d3mon]

@Preston... I love the stats you presented. The funny thing about stats is that it takes very little to make them support your assumptions.
Let me see, if I can make some stats for the scenarios you mentioned

1) I am mafia - i.e. I cant be Security Guard.

The town cop would role claim on day 2 and I would be lynched. The probability of this scenario is 27.3 %.

2) Assuming I am town and the security guard who forces a town lynch

Chances of this happening are 8/11 * 1/8 * 2/3 = 6.06%

3) Assuming I am town and the security guard who gets lucky

8/11 * 1/8 * 1/3 = 3.03%

4) Assuming that I am town and that mafia kills me at night

8/11 * 1/8 = 9.1 %

Well.. I dont see things going horribly wrong for town under any scenario.

I really like how you managed to manipulate the numbers to show that if I am left alive, town looses the game.

A very interesting part of your analysis is that while you have tried to take apart every post that I made, you dont suspect CD at all.

Let me remind you about a list of scummy actions on his part (perhaps your too)

1) I dropped a hint about my role and he immediately jumped on it and asked for a full role claim. You supported his actions. Sounds scummy to me.

2) He role claims under circumstances that dont require a role claim. Moreover, his role claim proves nothing but you still dont suspect him. Again, I find this very suspicious.

3) There are tons of inconsistencies in his posting. At one time he claims that all the townie roles in last round were very powerful.. later he states that there were enough roles to balance the security guard role. Sounds scummy to me but you ignore it as if it was just another comment.

4) Both you and CD initially pressed for a role claim. I did and you said paraphrase or lynch. Again, I did... your reaction.. too late...we will lynch you anyway.

I also find it very disheartining to see so many inactives. Assuming that all scum members are active, this is seriously tipping the balance in the favour of mafia.

A hammer vote on me could come pretty soon. Assuming that town would be looking at my posts to decide who is scum, I would say that CD and Preston sound really scummy to me.

[CanucksDynasty]

@d3mon -

1. Why did you bother dropping a hint about your role in the first place?

2. My role is a that of a vanilla townie...it's the truth and will be proven upon my death or a cop investigation. You think I'm scummy...then why don't you vote for me?

3. I never said that last game all the townies roles were very powerful. Stop twisting my words to suit your agenda. I said all townies had power roles. As in a role with an ability (some weak, some negative, no plain vanilla townies).

4. I would never have pressed for a roleclaim had you not hinted that you were a character from the previous game. And this is the question that needs to be asked. Why on earth did you feel it was necessary to drop that hint in the first place???????

[CanucksDynasty]

I think with so many newbies, the game will more simplified with the roles. So I expect a cop, doc, vanilla townies, and mafia.

By the way...this was the hint I dropped before I voted for d3mon.
I made it clear there were vanilla townies in this game (me being one of them).

[TerrorChrist]

Votecount?

[CanucksDynasty]

I believe d3mon has 5 votes (ccabal, CD, TC, CaoCao, Preston). One more to lynch.

[Electric Mango]

I'm waiting to see what else develops. I'm hoping to see some posts from Herodez, Nerau, and Narsis. I believe everyone else has posted regarding recent events.

Deadline is tomorrow.

[Electric Mango]

I'm waiting to see what else develops. I'm hoping to see some posts from Herodez, Nerau, and Narsis. I believe everyone else has posted regarding recent events.

Deadline is tomorrow.

[TerrorChrist]

Question: if a maffia is lynched, does this happen BEFORE or AFTER nightactions?

Beforehand - it happens as soon as a majority is reached / day ends.
Night actions are submitted throughout the night and take effect just before the next day starts.
Hope this clears things up! -M

Edited by molestargazer, 14 April 2011 - 08:00 PM.

[Electric Mango]

Before

[KevinH]

I don't want anyone lynched, not even those probable scum who are after d3mon.

While CanucksDynasty and Preston have pressed the case, I believe it is quite possible that they are misguided townies. It will be helpful to the town later on to have posts with analysis like they make.

I was only trying to point out the weak arguments. Those that I ignored could possibly be true.

My role is one-use only and wouldn't help the town that much. I might or might not use it tonight. If d3mon is truly the security guard and uses his role tonight, he would know if actually did use my role. That would be a way of confirming him as a townie. Yes, he could guess with a 50% chance of success but there are probably other townies with similar weak roles that could further confirm him. They don't even have to announce it ahead of time.

I suggest that we not risk lynching the security guard.

d3mon, use your one search tonight and report what you see. Those of us with townie roles will be able to disprove your report if it is wrong. You might be scum and you might make a lucky guess, but I think that probability is much less than the alternatives.

I urge the townies that are voting for d3mon to unvote. Why would we want to lynch the one claimed investigative role that has no counter-claim? Stop the insanity!

[Preston]

@Preston... I love the stats you presented. The funny thing about stats is that it takes very little to make them support your assumptions.
Let me see, if I can make some stats for the scenarios you mentioned

1) I am mafia - i.e. I cant be Security Guard.

The town cop would role claim on day 2 and I would be lynched. The probability of this scenario is 27.3 %.

2) Assuming I am town and the security guard who forces a town lynch

Chances of this happening are 8/11 * 1/8 * 2/3 = 6.06%

3) Assuming I am town and the security guard who gets lucky

8/11 * 1/8 * 1/3 = 3.03%

4) Assuming that I am town and that mafia kills me at night

8/11 * 1/8 = 9.1 %

Well.. I dont see things going horribly wrong for town under any scenario.

I really like how you managed to manipulate the numbers to show that if I am left alive, town looses the game.

The only real given in my stats is that you have roleclaimed security guard while under suspicion. I present the scenarios as I saw them for how things could turn out tomorrow.

For one, your odds dont add up to 100%. If you include one side of a scenario, you need to include the other side otherwise things become imbalanced and the values dont make sense. The main difference between our lists is that you add the 1/8 odds-you-are-security-guard. I assumed that if you were town, then you were telling the truth - and since what town would SEE doesnt change, then it doesnt make much difference. If you include that 1/8, you also need to include the 7/8 opposite case. For example:

2a) Assuming d3mon is town and the security guard who forces a town lynch: 8/11 * 1/8 * 2/3 = 6.06%
2b) Assuming d3mon is town and not the security guard, but who forces a town lynch: 8/11 * 7/8 * 2/3 = 42.4%

I combined those largely because in either case town would see you suggesting a lynch target and then a townie dying, and because frankly if you're townie and NOT telling the truth at this stage then a counter-claim on you on day 2 would probably also result in your lynch.
If you are only listing yourself as 1/8 likely to be security guard, does that mean that we should NOT assume you are telling the truth?

A very interesting part of your analysis is that while you have tried to take apart every post that I made, you dont suspect CD at all.

Let me remind you about a list of scummy actions on his part (perhaps your too)

1) I dropped a hint about my role and he immediately jumped on it and asked for a full role claim. You supported his actions. Sounds scummy to me.

2) He role claims under circumstances that dont require a role claim. Moreover, his role claim proves nothing but you still dont suspect him. Again, I find this very suspicious.

3) There are tons of inconsistencies in his posting. At one time he claims that all the townie roles in last round were very powerful.. later he states that there were enough roles to balance the security guard role. Sounds scummy to me but you ignore it as if it was just another comment.

4) Both you and CD initially pressed for a role claim. I did and you said paraphrase or lynch. Again, I did... your reaction.. too late...we will lynch you anyway.

Since much of this day has turned into an examination of you, it's no surprise that many of my posts have been responses/analysis of your words and counter-accusations. People respond more to someone questioning their analysis; you'll note I have responded to KevinH rather at length as well.

@1 & @2: This has been said before, but I'll repeat it: the setting/intent of one's roleclaim and the role they claim both affect how easily that claim is believed. Last game we ended up pursuing and lynching EM, insomniac, because his roleclaim happened under suspicion - he threw it out there in an attempt to clear his name. Roleclaims in defense are always suspect, especially when they claim big targets.

@3: Last game all townies last town had 'power roles' - i.e. roles of SOME kind. This does not mean they were all 'very powerful'. Several of the roles were intended to actually hamper the security guard - one person who did nothing but present a false positive by moving every night (insomniac), a role that also moved every night but could find info if scum used their janitor (curious child) and an infinite-use pro-town role that would also show up (friendly neighbor).

@4: The key word has been "paraphrase". You gave just the role name 'Security Guard' with nothing else. By "paraphrase" we were asking you to basically take your role PM and run it through a thesaurus and give us the whole thing with synonyms that didnt destroy the meaning. We were looking for the details about how your role was implemented THIS game and how realistic/mole-like your PM sounded. We would then be able to pick apart your role PM for consistency, believability, etc. We asked you for the paraphrase several times; I held off voting until you returned largely because I was waiting for you to do so. The fact that you refused to ever provide that detail - all you did was point to the LAST game's role PM - increased our belief that you do not HAVE a security guard role PM from THIS game to paraphrase.

I also find it very disheartining to see so many inactives. Assuming that all scum members are active, this is seriously tipping the balance in the favour of mafia.

A hammer vote on me could come pretty soon. Assuming that town would be looking at my posts to decide who is scum, I would say that CD and Preston sound really scummy to me.

Narsis and Herodez need to respond, yes. I am interested in what Narsis thought of you, since you were on his list from very early on.

If you ARE town, then you've done a very good job of making a spectacle of yourself and not giving people defending you (largely KevinH) much of anything to work with.

I know you're new. I know it's possible that you are town and didnt realize that by mentioning the "past game survivor" bit you were letting slip you had a role. If you'd been cooperative and provided the paraphrase detail when most of the town asked for it instead of first saying you won't roleclaim then turning around and roleclaiming later, your claim would have been easier to believe. Not all of this game is hard mod-confirmed fact; behavior and the way people act when challenged is key. It's been difficult to explain your behavior if you are truly pro-town with such an important role.

If you're truly the security guard and just played badly, then there's not much else to say; we made a mistake. I hope this isn't the case.

The only thing currently making me waver at all is that if you're new it's possible you really HAVE played this badly. Though I still have trouble understanding why you'd give up and take death without a roleclaim if you really ARE the security guard... that makes no sense at all. Explain why you would just give up and die without a fight if you actually are the security guard.

I don't want anyone lynched, not even those probable scum who are after d3mon.

While CanucksDynasty and Preston have pressed the case, I believe it is quite possible that they are misguided townies. It will be helpful to the town later on to have posts with analysis like they make.

I was only trying to point out the weak arguments. Those that I ignored could possibly be true.

My role is one-use only and wouldn't help the town that much. I might or might not use it tonight. If d3mon is truly the security guard and uses his role tonight, he would know if actually did use my role. That would be a way of confirming him as a townie. Yes, he could guess with a 50% chance of success but there are probably other townies with similar weak roles that could further confirm him. They don't even have to announce it ahead of time.

I suggest that we not risk lynching the security guard.

d3mon, use your one search tonight and report what you see. Those of us with townie roles will be able to disprove your report if it is wrong. You might be scum and you might make a lucky guess, but I think that probability is much less than the alternatives.

I urge the townies that are voting for d3mon to unvote. Why would we want to lynch the one claimed investigative role that has no counter-claim? Stop the insanity!

I wish this would work KevinH. Unfortunately your plan does not provide ANY means to identify who is and isnt scum - everyone that d3mon lists will be forced to roleclaim, and everyone will of course claim some sort of role. At least one will be lying, the scum who nightkilled someone - but EVERYONE will be suspect, and many normal townies would be outed regardless of whether d3mon is scum or not. I know this is how security guard works, but when scum could manipulating this list it's a dangerous power to give them; who do THEY want to see roleclaim?

Still. Is there SOME way we can make this work? Part of the problem with discussing tomorrow's test NOW is that it tells scum everything we're thinking; its impossible to "catch" them, so it has to instead be some kind of logic trap.

For this test, If d3mon is scum his list cannot have real movement information, and hence will be a list of random targets.
If d3mon is town but fakeclaiming, his list cannot have real movement information - or alternately he wouldn't provide a list.
If d3mon is town and security guard, his list will have real movement information.

If d3mon is not security guard, there MAY be a real cop roleclaim on day 2. I say 'may' because we dont necessarily have a 'movement-detector' cop: we could have one of the types that is able to examine one person per night. The danger is that if that's the kind of cop we have and on night 1 he finds NOTHING, he probably wont roleclaim - and d3mon's list will go unchallenged.

If d3mon is not security guard and a real cop roleclaims on day 2, d3mon will most likely be lynched. This includes if he is town and fakeclaiming to either draw scum nightkill or avoid death.

If d3mon's list is unchallenged, then all those named will be forced to roleclaim.
If d3mon is scum and names someone that didnt move/use a role, that person will say it wasnt them and possibly be forced to do a full roleclaim on day 2 - more likely they'll claim vanilla townie. They will be suspect because they will appear to be scum trying to avoid getting caught.
If d3mon is scum and doesnt name someone who moved, that person can challenge the list - but that person will also be suspect for trying to discredit d3mon.

If d3mon is security guard and names someone that moved, that person can say "yes that was me" and do a full roleclaim. If that was a one-use role, then there's no further extra danger. If that was a multi-use role then that person is now outed and is a target night 2 onward. Anyone outed in this manner is suspect because this is also how scum would show up: they would fakeclaim and try to get away with it.
If d3mon is security guard and someone claims they moved and were not shown, or named and did not move, then those people would be suspect for trying to discredit d3mon - but it would also put d3mon's list (and whoever had said 'yes that was me') in question.

If d3mon is scum and names two townies and two scum as his findings, his fellow scum can collaborate with him and fakeclaim/verify his results to place additional suspicion on those who would probably say "no wait, that wasnt me" - especially if d3mon gets lucky and one of the two townies named really DID move. People d3mon did NOT name that moved would be able to speak up and try to discredit him, but it's possible that such people would be in the minority and hence look suspicious themselves.

If d3mon is security guard and a false-positive townie is lynched based on his information, then d3mon will still look suspect - but a less so if a lot of people are sticking up for him by saying he verified their night moves. If fewer people use their roles tonight then it will be harder to verify him, but it reduces chances of a false positive - less for a scum to hide in. If more people use their roles tonight then it will be easier to verify him, but who is actually scum will be lost in the mass and a false-positive will be very likely; we'll have essentially destroyed the security guard's usefulness.

At this point I've sat here FAR too long looking back over posts and trying to work out the logic of how a test could work, and the preview shows me an ungodly long post so I'm going to stop now.

d3m0n- You've seriously acted like scum in my eyes thus far. I believe anyone who suspects you is entirely justified in doing so, but it IS possible that you've just played this badly due to being new. If you are town, then answer what you meant by your post where you said you would take being lynched with no roleclaim, if you are the security guard. I also will ask you one last time to provide a PARAPHRASE of your role pm. You have NOT provided this so far. Respond to both of those things quickly and we'll see where it goes.

KevinH- I'm having trouble seeing how testing d3mon can work without forcing townie roleclaims, allowing scum co-conspirators to skew the process, or ruining the security guard's effectiveness through too many false-positive townie actions. If you can lay out a better plan that addresses these issues I /might/ be persuaded to go along with it, but per my above analysis I seriously cannot think of a way to test d3mon that would not end with the town at a major disadvantage... and it's VERY hard for me to ignore d3mon's behavior to this point.

-Preston

[CanucksDynasty]

@KevinH - have you even considered that the real cop may have voted for d3mon and chose to remain hidden?

IF he's scum - then hooray for the town.
IF he's town - then we have a voting list to work with.

[KevinH]

It's Day 1. Nobody knows nothin' ... not even the real cop.

My plan is not a guaranteed clearance of d3mon but it could certainly condemn him as scum or shift the probability of townie greatly in his favor.

First, you need to believe that I am townie and that I have a role.
If d3mon is scum, he has a 50% chance of guessing whether I do my thing or not.

Next, if another townies moves and isn't identified, that townie can role-claim and condemn d3mon -- we have to decide whether the townie that says they moved is truly a townie but if we then lynch d3mon the real townie, we'll have a clear indication of the scum that condemned d3mon.

If he identifies additional people as moving, then we have to decide whether those identified are scum or townie. They could say that they did move but they were townies and we'd have to decide if we beleive them. They could say they didn't move and condemn d3mon and we're in the same situation as the previous paragraph.

Regardless, we'll have some interesting things to talk about on day 2 if we do it this way. Otherwise, I'll get to say either "I told you so" or "you got lucky this time" and then we'll be guessing at the next lynch candidate with either 3/9 or 2/9 odds assuming the scum get a night-kill.

[Nerau]

so your saying he needs to use his role( if he has it ) and tell us who moved? all someone has to do is claim they didn't move and he would be found out

Problem there is its a game of who is lying and who is telling the truth. It becomes of game of trust instead of logic

but anyway i want this disscussion to continue till deadline or for as long as possible that way he has a chance to do what he can

also sorry for being here more working 6 days a week does that to ya

[Electric Mango]

Kevin, I agree with a lot of things in your post. What I would like to see 1st though is a summary from d3mon that gives more detail to his role. If there is a security guard, there may be different mechanics to the role than last game. I wouldn't put it past mole to add a few wrinkles to the game.

What concerns me is that he will not do that even though it will probably mean his own death. When deadline approaches and the town is set for a lynch, you better give them everything they ask for or it's going to be your head in the noose.

The town will almost always lynch on D1 regardless of how strong the case us. Look at this game as a case in point. You were the leading candidate because you made an April fools joke. If d3mon is what he says he us then he better do whatever it takes to stay alive.