761 replies to this topic

[TerrorChrist]

(...)

Nice analysis. What it boils down to is: do we believe the claim.

I, personally, do not.

VOTE COUNT
d3mon (3): ccabal86, CanucksDynasty, TerrorChrist
ccabal86 (2): Nerau, Electric Mango
KevinH (2): Narsis, Herodez
TerrorChrist (2): CaoCao, d3mon

No Lynch (1): KevinH

Not Voting (1): Preston

With 11 Alive, 6 is needed to lynch.

Edited by molestargazer, 12 April 2011 - 11:04 AM.

[ccabal86]

Would it be worthwhile to consider a no-lynch in order to give d3mon a chance to prove himself (if it is like in last game he will be able to tell who moved and any who are townie would be able to prove it) or have the mafia kill him. If there is a doc who can revive for a day like last time we will still have his results.

But that's just it, he can't prove himself at this point.

IF, the town however had some sort of rolecop, he could investigate d3mon and reveal what he has found. But I find it highly unlikely that the town has a security guard AND a rolecop, as a combo like that would be overpowered. So we're back to square 1.

However, no-lynching would be our best option at this point if we somehow figured out how to prove d3mon's townieness.

[Emmanuel]

But that's just it, he can't prove himself at this point.

IF, the town however had some sort of rolecop, he could investigate d3mon and reveal what he has found. But I find it highly unlikely that the town has a security guard AND a rolecop, as a combo like that would be overpowered. So we're back to square 1.

However, no-lynching would be our best option at this point if we somehow figured out how to prove d3mon's townieness.

Exactly, the only way I think he can prove himself right now is for us to no-lynch and give him the chance to use what I think his ability is (like in the last game). But he could just make up his own results and before we get the chance to lynch him (which wouldn't happen until Day 3; 3 night kills and 1 lynch on day 2 with his results).

I will wait for some players with more experience in longer, text based mafia to state their opinion (I have only played it in person where voting took like a minute)

[Preston]

However, no-lynching would be our best option at this point if we somehow figured out how to prove d3mon's townieness.

The problem is that any 'give d3mon a chance to prove himself' scenario involves basically giving scum the game if we're wrong - and he's acting anti-townie enough that at this point I'd give better than even odds he's scum.

Per my earlier post, any attempt at proving d3mon town would involve following at least one of his lynch targets. If he's scum, weve not only let him live (and possibly use an ability), but use our day 2 lynch as an extra kill that scum determines. Night kill 1, day lynch 2, night kill 2 - giving scum control of 3 kills out of an 11 person game would bring us to lynch-or-lose. We might lynch d3mon himself at that point and buy some breathing room, BUT d3mon would probably claim he's town... see below.

Assuming that d3mon is town, if his list produces a false positive on the first attempt (like CD going after EM last game, though that wasnt his first target), then wed STILL lose 3 people in a row: night kill 1, day lynch 2, night kill 2. Only at that point we'd be CONVINCED that d3mon was scum, lynch him... and it's game over. And if d3mon was scum, he'd claim he WAS town and that his lynch would end the game - so on day 3 we'd STILL be debating if d3mon is scum or not.

IF d3mon is town AND really security guard AND produces a scum target on his FIRST attempt... then and only then would town come out ahead by testing him. But thats only one scenario out of three, and a very unlikely one at that.

So in brief: I cant see a way to test d3mon without basically giving scum the game.

-Preston

[TerrorChrist]

Exactly, the only way I think he can prove himself right now is for us to no-lynch and give him the chance to use what I think his ability is (like in the last game). But he could just make up his own results and before we get the chance to lynch him (which wouldn't happen until Day 3; 3 night kills and 1 lynch on day 2 with his results).

I will wait for some players with more experience in longer, text based mafia to state their opinion (I have only played it in person where voting took like a minute)

If D3mon is scum (which I believe), then the strategy of no-lynching would be signing our death sentence. Night 1: townie dies. Day 2: we work with faked results, lynching a townie. Night 2: Townie dies, day 3: we finally lunch a mobster (I sure hope I am right in my suspicion), Night 4: Townie dies... This would leave us with 4 dead townies.... and we would probably be outnumbered, wouldn't we?

Of course, if he ISN'T scum, then we'd be at the same position: do we trust his report and do we all decide to lynch the guy he names...? I don't think that I would suddenly miracylously believe that he is a good guy after all...

Now, I sure hope I am right, because I already know that if he turns out to be town, people will be pointing at me saying "You wanted to lynch him, you must be scum".

[KevinH]

If lynching d3mon proved that he was actually a scum, Kevin would be very high on my list of suspects afterwards. He has reiterated multiple times that he thinks d3mon is a townie and would make me think he was trying to protect him.

I'm not trying to protect d3mon as much as trying to guide the town toward its optimal course of action. I'm convinced with 3/11 probability that d3mon is scum. That's not enough to lynch.

Plus if he's town, at this point lying would be anti-town
...
This roleclaim has no detail on it.
...
1/11 odds of him actually HAVING this role.
...
For supposedly having security guard, he waited a LONG time to actually say it
...
If d3mon is scum with a role fighting to stay alive, we're letting him use that role instead of preventing it.

A few other points to consider:

• He could be town and lying to attract a night-kill which would protect the real cop.
• There's no other role which would be more likely so implying 1/11 is a small chance for the claim to be true is misleading.
• It would have been better if scum did not know he was the security guard.
• If d3mon is not scum, you're letting some other scum use his role.

[molestargazer]

Herodez has (finally) been prodded.
Vote counts on their way now.

[KevinH]

The problem is that any 'give d3mon a chance to prove himself' scenario involves basically giving scum the game if we're wrong

If the prospect of 3 dead townies in a row in so important that it deserves emphasis, consider:

• Day 1 - Wrongly lynch our security guard
• Night 1 - Night-kill by scum
• Day 2 - Another wrong lynch
• Night 2 - Night-kill by scum

[Electric Mango]

The fact that no one has counter-claimed another investigative role lends plausibility to d3mons claim. If I had a similar role I would counter claim. Maybe he's telling the truth after all but I want to give everyone a chance to post first to see if anyone counter-claims.

[TerrorChrist]

The fact that no one has counter-claimed another investigative role lends plausibility to d3mons claim. If I had a similar role I would counter claim. Maybe he's telling the truth after all but I want to give everyone a chance to post first to see if anyone counter-claims.

Why would anyone counterclam ANOTHER role?

[ccabal86]

The fact that no one has counter-claimed another investigative role lends plausibility to d3mons claim. If I had a similar role I would counter claim. Maybe he's telling the truth after all but I want to give everyone a chance to post first to see if anyone counter-claims.

I see your point, but if that's the case, I don't think the real cop should out himself, it's basically a death sentence. Sure we WOULD catch a scum, but we would likely lose our "real" cop with no guarantee of having a doctor.

This is all assuming d3mon is false roleclaiming.

Agh, such a bad situation. Srsly, if you have an important role like this, you shouldn't attract attention to yourself on day 1 like d3mon has. You should try to survive at least 1 night to give your ability a chance.

[Emmanuel]

Why would anyone counterclam ANOTHER role?

They would counterclaim if they had a cop role, unless we are in a police station or the scene of a crime or something (where cops have shown up) thenthere is most likely only 1 cop role. The lack of a counterclaim so far means either A) No scum is willing to take the chance even if his death on the 3rd day would help his team out or the actual cop role doesn't want to say anything so they can see what happens during the night to see if d3mon is one of the movers (again, only if this is the same type of cop from the last game).

[Electric Mango]

I assume that in every game we will have a cop and a doc in some variation. If d3mon is lying and I was the cop, I would most definitely counter claim.

We start the game with one less scum and avoid lynching a townie. Odds would automatically be stacked in the towns favor.

Doc can protect cop for at least one night.

If he is the security guard then he only gets his powers for one night anyway.

[CanucksDynasty]

I want to hear d3mon's role description. Paraphrased to avoid a modkill. That will be important in deciding if he's telling the truth or not.

I do not support a no lynch as I believe voting patterns are a must. And d3mon is my leading suspect (thus he has my vote).

[Electric Mango]

I'm interested in hearing from everyone who has not weighed in on the recent events. Let your opinion be known.

[CanucksDynasty]

I find the lack of posts discouraging.

[Preston]

A few other points to consider:

• He could be town and lying to attract a night-kill which would protect the real cop.
• There's no other role which would be more likely so implying 1/11 is a small chance for the claim to be true is misleading.
• It would have been better if scum did not know he was the security guard.
• If d3mon is not scum, you're letting some other scum use his role.

Based on the points you have chosen to respond to, I think you missed the point of my dividing my analysis into two separate sections: one that assumes d3mon is scum, and one that assumes d3mon is town. Some of your responses show up in my 'if he's town' section.
Either way, I'll respond to them here:
@1: While possible, that would require him be left alive today to be their bait at night. Per my post, leaving him alive in any form with his behavior suggesting scum THIS strongly is extremely risky.
@2: Yes every role is equally likely - however having THIS specific role when people were saying he'd need a major one to survive reduces the field. My point could have been paraphrased as saying: "It's very convenient for him to have this important role when everyone was saying he would have to have a major role to be potentially worth keeping alive"
@3: I agree it would have been better if he never roleclaimed with this role. My point here is that once he STARTED his claim and was facing suspicion, he could/should have claimed SOONER instead of us having to drag it out of him. The manner of his eventual claim has done him no favors. Also note that under my "If he's town" list, I addressed your statement; that if he actually IS security guard, it would explain some of his reluctance to roleclaim. Though I still have difficulty understanding why he would then choose death over claiming if he had THIS important of a role.
@4: Generally speaking, any non-scum lynch on day 1 (including no-lynch) lets some scum use their role. My earlier post specifically dealt with evaluating scenarios for testing d3mon, and had to acknowledge in pros/cons that if he IS scum - possibly scum with a role - letting him get to night 1 for the test would mean letting him use that role.

If the prospect of 3 dead townies in a row in so important that it deserves emphasis, consider:

• Day 1 - Wrongly lynch our security guard
• Night 1 - Night-kill by scum
• Day 2 - Another wrong lynch
• Night 2 - Night-kill by scum

The day listings were again evaluating what could happen if we no-lynched to test d3mon on day 2. The scenarios all assumed a no-lynch on day 1 in order for the test to occur, and thusly started their counting with nightkill 1. Your list here is a valid scenario if d3mon is town AND we lynch him today - but it also assumes that we get the day 2 lynch wrong. I listed scenarios with us failing the day 2 lynch as possible casualties of testing d3mon, because d3mon would be picking our pool of targets while under suspicion - either via the guard role or via scum picking people. I included false positives (townies indicated by guard as being possible scum because they moved) as a scenario because the security guard role from last game produced false positives: EM and Kevin showed up moving and ccabal SHOULD have shown up but didnt due to mod error. The security guard role is likely to see as many town as scum move, if not more: 3:1 if you want to base it off of what CD should have seen night 1. It cannot be ignored as a scenario. If we lynch a false positive while testing d3mon, we'd be likely to then lynch d3mon for 'proving' wrong - and if d3mon was actually town, that would be ANOTHER town lynch and probably game over. The point is that if a townie is lynched in response to letting d3mon pick the day 2 lynch candidates, we will still be stuck on day 3 debating if he is scum or not - is he really a guard with real results and the townie was a false positive, or is he scum that just tricked us and is going to give us another bad target?

You have a consistent preference for no-lynch, and that's an understandable position on day 1 - there is indeed no solid information to be had. Day 1 of last game we didnt really have anyone stand out as likely scum based on their actions; this time we do. You have repeated that that he has 3/11 odds of being scum. That is the literal truth, but it assumes no other information - the raw numbers do not take his behavior into account. If you have four closed boxes containing three dogs and a cat and one of the boxes meows - that box is still 1/4 likely to contain the cat, but which would you pick?

-Preston

[Preston]

I find the lack of posts discouraging.

Mod confirmed prod on Herodez, so that's underway.
Nerau has a brief post on the previous page:

I hate weekends so that normal i haven't been here

i agree there is still a slim chance he is telling the truth but more than likely he is lying

But otherwise... where is Narsis? I /still/ want to hear that list's explanation.

-Preston

[Electric Mango]

We only have a few days left to the Day 1 deadline. I understand it's hard to have an opinion one way or another early in the day when there isn't much to go on but now we have something worth discussing and EVERYONE should weigh in with their opinion/analysis. This will be very important to dissect as the days progress. People who are lurking I find to be very suspicious and will be moved up higher on my scum list.

Remember, mafia try to blend in as best they can and this is why it is important to state your position definitively and not be wishy washy.

This new development is also why it is important to vote on Day 1 as it fosters communication and gets people moving. Information is and always will be the towns best weapon. So new or old to the game, let your voice be heard.

[CanucksDynasty]

Deadline is this Friday (2 days from now). A no-lynch is not an option (to me at least). Get your votes in.


Offtopic: GO CANUCKS GO!!!!!!!!!