370 replies to this topic

[Kaziocore]

The 5 Days Before Deadline VOTE COUNT
ccbal86 (2): Rafay, ZincoX

Not Voting (9): ABigDeer, BeeBs, ccabal86, Electric Mango, Eva999, Imran Ehsan, KevinH, reign of terror, Theophilos

With 11 Alive, 6 is needed to lynch.
3 is needed to lynch at deadline.

[ccabal86]

Allright guys, here's the scoop: I'm Peronell, Princess of Kaardoli. The role is special in some way, but I will not reveal more. What I can reveal, is that there is someone currently alive who can confirm my identity.

I lynched kevin cuz he was irritating w his poetry and I dont like poetry and Nerau was unactive so I thot it won't hurt.As for ccbal I still say he's bluffing to save himself from execution by claiming he has a power role so we don't lynch him.Thats my explanation and y r u so interested in my actions.This arouses suspicions are you going to kill me next.

Uh-huh. Because if I were scum, surely the best strategy would be to come forward on day two (after no night kill has taken place) and draw considerable attention to myself by claiming an obscure power role, even though I could have easily stayed under the radar and appeared semi-helpful like some other people here. Your argument would be more solid if I had been in a tight spot when I role-claimed, but this wasn't the case.

You seem rather ham-fisted with your accusations. "Let's lynch Kevin, because I'm annoyed by his poetry and ccabal because he...roleclaimed." Never mind that KevinH techinically roleclaimed as well, that didn't seem to disturb you, only his poetry.

Nevertheless, I do not think you are scum, you're acting way too erratically for that. I'm fairly confident that we have some experienced players as mafia, who would not find an approach like yours desirable, and would suggest that you play differently

I don't know if he's bluffing or trying to mislead us, but I would like to know what his actual role is. It seems odd to just announce he's a power role, and he seems very sure that we have a doctor and a cop from his other posts.

What made you believe that I though we had a cop? Nowhere did I say anything of the sort. I find it very possible that we have a doc, or at least that scum believe that. Why is that?

1, KevinH is still alive, who is pretty much a confirmed townie in my eyes. If he is not, then he plays the poet character insanely well, a role that is both unique, yet makes perfect sense for the setting. Even though he's a great player, I believe he plays townies better than scum, and this act is a little too good for him to be scum...
2, No nightkill took place on day 1, which can be attributed to a doc/roleblocker. Unless....And bear with me, it's about to get interesting!

Unless no nightkill was ever submitted by scum on day 1!

"But why would scum do that cc, it makes absolutely no sense!?" I admit, I may have had a part in this.

Let's see: It all started with the introduction of the obviously ridiculous concept of vampirism, by no other than the future star of our analysis, EM:

Why does it just say culprit and not the plural form. I would guess that due to this grammar and the game set up that there is one "mafia" who has the power to turn others into mafia during the night phase. Like a vampire or werewolf.

The one time I was mafia, we had to send in 2 names: name of the target, and the name of the killer. That's standard for mafia games, scum don't kill collectively, there is always one person who carries out the act. EM should know this more than anyone, yet he was caught up in the wording so much that he instantly developed his rather out-of-place theory.

After this, I expressed my disbelief of that theory due to balance issues. Even though I argued numbers and lynching mechanics, I also (silently) thought of the confusion such a turning could cause if me or my partner were converted, and it came to point in the game where we need to confirm each other's identity. A scenario like that would be auto-loss for town. But, here comes the part where I may have inadvertently helped create confusion:

If that's the case, then we should not see nightkills, as a nightkill+turning into mafia would be insanely overpowered. But even without the nightkill, it'd be still imbalanced.

Xoinx! Looks like scum were paying attention.

Anyway, people somehow took interest in the theory, due to "flavoring" and "vibes", because no way a hooded figure in a medieval setting be a concealed assassin, or an evil wizard or any other baddie for that matter, no. It can only be a vampire of a werewolf! Of course EM was there all the way to push the line:

You say that with absolute certainty. How can you be so confident?

I'm not abandoning my hypothesis until the mod fixes the "typo" or I'm proven wrong by a night kill. Time will tell.

After night 1:

It seems my hypothesis now carries a little more validity considering no one was night killed.

Here's what I believe we are up against.

Werewolf

He can turn other town folk into werewolves and when the werewolves equal or outnumber the townies, the original werewolf and all who were turned will win.

I'm guessing if we lynch the head werewolf, we win.

Very specific ideas you have there EM... But what is this all good for, why would a theory like this help you in the first place (besides the obvious confusion and concealing of the truth)?

I believe the town needs to start lynching before the majority of us get turned.

Vote: Nerau

Reason: He's quiet, too quiet

And there starts the bandwagon on poor Nerau. So come on town, get lynching! Vigilantes, fire away! it's just one werewolf, if we get him then we win! Kill now, before the infection spreads!

I would also like to know the role as well. You brought it up ccabal86, so let's hear it.

Also, I doubt that was a vigilante kill last night. Nerau has been inactive and I find it highly unlikely he sent in for a night kill but never posted in game.

Of course, you did say that your theory was wrong after the night kill on Night 2, but it would have been mighty suspicious if you hadn't. You have already managed to confuse several people who even now are hesitant to let go of the idea.

Now, let's look at how you reacted to my roleclaim after Night 1. Your inquery started a bit late, I believe you took this time to formulate your approach:

ccabal86, why did you come out and say you have a power role? You said you were surprised that no one has asked you more about your role, but what more would you tell us? It seems you were hesitant to give more information about your role, that is why I did not press you further. I have to ask again, why come out in the first place?

So ccabal86, do you plan on giving us more information on your role tomorrow?

Ever so slight pressure on me to reveal more, without looking like you're pushing for info too strong. Have you considered joining the Diplo Corps?
After Night 2:

As for my role: I am NOT a cop, and there is another person that can confirm my identity.

This is basically all the info the town had to know, without giving too much info to lurking scum. But now you're desperate to find out more, gotta assess the threat my role may pose for you:

So you're saying you're a mason? I'm assuming you don't have a power role and can only talk to your partner at night?

I would also like to know the role as well. You brought it up ccabal86, so let's hear it.

Not going to reveal more at this time, as it will not benefit the town. I can paraphrase part of my role PM if you guys really want, might reveal more later if it's beneficial.

So to recap:

1, There is at least 1experienced player in the mafia team
2, Kevin is playing too well to be mafia
3, Rafay is playing too badly to be mafia
4, EM made up the vampire scenario to confuse town, possibly to get a lynch on day one
5, Seeing my post about a no-night kill, scum agreed not to lynch to cause further confusion.
6, EM starts the "lynch now!" bandwagon, despite us having no more info than on Day 1
7, Tries to pressure me to reveal more about my role than necessary

In light of these, I am going to Vote: Electric Mango

[ccabal86]

Holy hell, that's long!

[KevinH]

I can't be mafia, I'm playing too well
It's a long post, holy hell!

Both those statements happen to be true
And I like analysis fingering you-know-who!

[Eva999]

What made you believe that I though we had a cop? Nowhere did I say anything of the sort. I find it very possible that we have a doc, or at least that scum believe that. Why is that?

Let me dig through the posts again later. I thought it was you that said it, but it might have been someone else. That or I'm just stupid and imagining things.

[Eva999]

Nor do they react to my claim of poet and bard
Although believing should not be hard

I'm sure that somebody has a role
They're just quiet to avoid a hole

The question really is this:
Was no night kill just a miss?

Another no-lynch might be bad
Because a side-switch might be had

But since we have no clue who's scum
A random lynch might too be dumb

I'm leaning toward the cop and chance
another night the town will dance

This is the post I was thinking of, sorry. Kevin seems to be suggesting here that there is a cop, though it could just be an off hand comment, having a cop of some sort is fairly common.

I agree with you that a mafia turning instead of killing scenario seems unlikely. Just reading the intro again, it doesn't seem to fit that there would only be 1 scum.

[ccabal86]

KevinH always likes to follow the cop

[Electric Mango]

1st of all, ccabal86, that was a very well thought out and put together analysis, and I'm flattered to be the subject you have shone your spot light upon but you sir, are incorrect. I believe the main parts of your argument are that I introduced an incorrect game theory, convinced the town to vote for Nerau, and pressed you for information about your role.

So as far introducing the werewolf theory, I took an educated guess on an incorrect, but plausible scenario. Kazio obviously put a lot of though and effort into preparing this entire game judging from the scenes and very elaborate role PM's, but it wasn't until I read the part about the "killer" that made me think of that. Plus, I fail to see how introducing this idea would hurt the town.

As far as my vote on Nerau goes, I never asked or coerced anyone to vote for him. I have always been pro-lynch and Nerau was the best choice at the time, he was inactive and not helping the town. Many others would have to agree with me judging by how fast everyone hopped on the train.

Perhaps these things would have been forgivable in your eyes if I had not of been pressing you for information about your role and I'll tell you why I did. When you stated that you had a power role and that someone else could verify that, I immediately thought you were claiming that you were a mason. If that is what you had claimed to be then I would know that you were scum and would push for your lynch. My role PM told me that I was Marcus the Mason but no one was interested in laying bricks and that I was all alone. Since my character is a mason, your role claim was highly suspicious to me.

[ccabal86]

Well, if you are indeed a mason as you claim, then that would explain the very direct inquiry you made of my role, and why you pressed me so hard to reveal more information. But if you are alone, then you're basically a vanilla townie? In that case you should paraphrase your own role PM for us.

But that doesn't explain why you chose to come forth, (and stick to rather persistently) with the werewolf theory, which was based on one word and and in spite of my pointing out several times why such a scenario would be highly unlikely.

How a misconception of the mafia faction would hurt the town is easy to see: If there is ONE scum, who spreads infection over time, then obviously the best strategy is to get lynching ASAP to contain the infection, and no lynching is a losing strategy (as KevinH pointed out earlier).

It is a common pattern in games, that Day 1 ends with no lynch. For mafia, 2 deaths are better than one, so day one lynching usually favors them more than not. But what happens if mafia don't submit an action and no night kill happens? It's pretty much Day 1 all over again. Town is still in the dark due to the lack of a night kill. Now, if people believe there is a werewolf loose, then they will start lynching, and you'll get a very similar scenario than if people actually lynched someone on Day 1. Two dead, same amount of public info.

Furthermore, people will simply be confused (WTF, there's no werewolf? Or is there?), and will have more difficulty reaching a consensus - something scum can greatly exploit.

[ZincoX]

I'm fairly confident that KevinH is not mafia. My reasoning has to do with my role, which I would prefer not to expose to the scum, so i will keep it secret for now. I am still not completely convinced that ccabal86 isn't scum; however, his case for EM being scum makes sense. Also, assuming ccabal86 is telling the truth as far as his princess role, I would prefer not to lynch him. My belief is:
1. Either EM or ccabal86 are scum. I'm not sure which, but both of them have good arguments against them. ccabal86 exposed himself as a power role, possibly bluffing in order to avoid us lynching him, and EM has been throwing around suspicion since the beginning and started the lynch of Nerau.
2. I think it is also possible that both of these people are scum and are putting up a display so we kill one of them, lionizing the other for starting suspicion on scum.
3. KevinH is not scum, and is probably hated by the scum.

[ZincoX]

^ For those reasons, I will
Unvote: ccabal86
Vote: Electric Mango

[Electric Mango]

So basically you guys think I'm guilty because I gave us something to discuss on Day 1 vs the usual lynch/no lynch thing. I'll try to be more boring from now on.

[Kaziocore]

Theo is immediately replaced by Emmanuel

[Imran Ehsan]

I must admit I kind of bought the Werewolf/Vampire scenario. ccabal86's alternative theory seems plausible also. This would mean that its a very well thought out and orchestrated move by the Mafia. Still not clear why ccabal86 role claimed in the first place though? It seems one of the basis for you to suspect EM is because he wanted you to reveal your role. But as far as I remember a lot of others also wanted you to reveal your role...it is curious why you would come out so early in the game. How are you sure that only the mafia will push you to reveal your role...maybe the doc (as an example) will also be interested to know who you are actually claiming to be before protecting you.

[Emmanuel]

WARNING: The following is a long post where a lot of BS is thrown around. Viewer discretion is advised.

My thoughts from what I've seen so far...

Opening Setting:
The opening to the game has two guards hearing a loud roar before one of them finds the king dead. Then a single robed figure approaches them, another loud roar, and presumably the men are killed by this robed figure (it only says that they screamed although they could have had a Shaggy/Scooby moment and ran away). Combine this loud roar sound and how the king died (mangled) with the ways the first two townies died (burning and hanging) it would look like some kind of werewolf scenario (mafia can be this horrifying monster or a human). No night kills on day 1 could either mean it took the opportunity to convert someone (so that a lucky lynch didn't end the game for him) or that killing makes him tired and he has to rest and cant kill every night (or the mafia were MIA by the time the night actions came around).

Player Suspicions:
Rafay comes off as an inexperienced player. He jumps down people's posts and accuses them of things because of minor oversights or accusations. He accused KevinH of being scum because he asked a lot of questions and didn't know who the king was (KevinH we know is a poet but could just be a wandering bard who happened to be here when the murder happened, or he could just be a traveling serial killer, who knows?). Hating poetry is hardly a reason to suspect someone though and he could be new to playing scum so he doesn't know how to stay anonymous.

BeeBs also seems to hate poetry for some reason but his hostility at the beginning could have been temporary/bipolar. Although he could have killed the king as a monster/been possessed, and just can't remember (this is grasping at straws on the other side of the world though).

I'm pretty sure EM is a townie, he was the first to propose werewolf but he had a pretty good point in the use of singular culprit. Although he could have been reading too much into the words (as I did in my analysis of the opening) it does seem like the mod put a lot of work into this and probably took his time carefully using words. His role as a Mason is questionable as it says he is lonely (therefore nobody to talk to and that he is just a brick maker) but no bricks to lay would stand to reason that he is a mason along with someone else (or that he sucks at his job). When the results of the first day are posted, it is mentioned that a cow is killed,either the mod is being very detailed (thus making us throw a lot of bs around trying to straighten it out) or that it is in fact some kind of monster

I'm not sure about ccabal, he claims his role is the princess and that someone can confirm this (possibly a bodyguard/queen/prince of some sort). What if the princess killed the king to take the throne though? The person who can confirm his role would be an assassin or a noble who wants power. I don't know how his role could be "special" though because other than someone being able to confirm his identity (like a mason) he doesn't say anything else (and odds are he isn't the doc/cop role as the princess probably wouldn't have anything to do with those roles).

KevinH seems to be a townie but while rhyming he mentions the possibilty of a wizard and "Upon the scum I put a curse!" could mean he is a wizard himself (although good or bad can't be said). He could have possessed Beebs in the beginning to kill the king (but it would be unlikely that the mod went to such an extreme I would think). He keeps mentioning the cow in his rhymes, hinting that he thinks its some kind of monster?


Anyways... thats just my two cents from what I've seen so far, I think it is either a werewolf variation where he can change back and forth and may need to wait between kills to rest or perhaps ccabal's princess killed her father so that he and another character (assassin/boyfriend/husband/wizard) want to take over the kingdom. Of course I'm reaching on some of these observations but I thought I'd throw out some possibilities so we'd have more than, "I think it's a werewolf"/"I think your wrong" convos. EM should explain his role a little more (whether he is an actual mason or that is just his job and ccabal should describe the type of "special" role the princess has because just saying someone else could confirm your identity, it doesn't mean your not scum.

[KevinH]

Don't put too much faith on any one word
It's hard to make a rhyme be heard

I'm just the bard and from the town
Trying to take away the frown

I know nothing more than what you see
No powers here, no diety!

[Electric Mango]

The only power I have is my vote. My role pm though said I was a mason and came to the kingdom to find work but no one is interested and that I am all alone.

[ccabal86]

When you stated that you had a power role and that someone else could verify that, I immediately thought you were claiming that you were a mason. If that is what you had claimed to be then I would know that you were scum and would push for your lynch. My role PM told me that I was Marcus the Mason but no one was interested in laying bricks and that I was all alone. Since my character is a mason, your role claim was highly suspicious to me.

The only power I have is my vote. My role pm though said I was a mason and came to the kingdom to find work but no one is interested and that I am all alone.

Then there is a problem with your logical reasoning here. You're trying to blur the line between "mason" as a mafia game role, and your in-game occupation. In your case "mason" is just a flavor for "vanilla townie", you might as well had been "Frodo the Forester" or "Pippin the Pervert". You clearly asked if I was a "mason" in the game-role sense and not by flavor. I would understand if a newbie made that mistake, but from you, I find it hard to believe. My vote remains.

I must admit I kind of bought the Werewolf/Vampire scenario. ccabal86's alternative theory seems plausible also. This would mean that its a very well thought out and orchestrated move by the Mafia. Still not clear why ccabal86 role claimed in the first place though? It seems one of the basis for you to suspect EM is because he wanted you to reveal your role. But as far as I remember a lot of others also wanted you to reveal your role...it is curious why you would come out so early in the game. How are you sure that only the mafia will push you to reveal your role...maybe the doc (as an example) will also be interested to know who you are actually claiming to be before protecting you.

Simple: the town desperately needed some information, and I provided. The reactions to the roleclaims also proved very informative, and as we know, information for town is everything. I took a risk and revealed myself. I also wanted to see what would happen at night. Since I wasn't targetted, I believe scum may have tought the town had a doctor...

Stuff

You seem to be reading an awful lot into flavoring, and give little attention to anything else, like the points I raised in my analysis. I already said that revealing more at this time would not benefit the town, yet you too are pushing for more.

FoS: Emmanuel

[ccabal86]

Btw: My role PM (which I am ready to - partly - paraphrase should anyone ask) clearly states that I am a gentle and fair princess. Can you not feel my charm guys!?

[reign of terror]

Welcome to the game Emmanuel!

So we have two roleclaims

1. ccabal as the Princess

2. EM as a mason with no powers

So I want to hear from the people who haven't responded yet if they think these guys are telling the truth or not. Right now I'm inclined to think both claims are true, but I'm not entirely convinced yet.