53 replies to this topic

[d3mon]

Hm.. since only two people were investigated, we can't have odd number of town results. So one of KevinH/Karl/Imran must be scum.

Since, we would have two chances to get the scum, I believe that we should lynch someone today.

Vote: Imran

[Xx Karl xX]

Hmm... well the way i see it, the probability of investigating the true scum is really low, so i think that one of the scum results has to be from the insane cop.

so if we think D3mon is insane, that means kevin is has to be either sane or naive. this also means that Rafay is the paranoid cop. then this leaves me and Imran. I know for a fact that i'm a cop, so that means i'm either sane or naive depending on what Kevin is, which leaves Imran as the liar and therefore scum.

OR

if Rafay is insane, that means D3mon is paranoid. I know i'm a cop, so that means kevin and I are sane and naive, which leaves Imran as the liar and therefore scum.

this is of course just speculation as i am trying to connect the dots here, but i think that's fairly logical, as long as neither of the scum results were on the actual scum, which i suppose did have a 40% chance of happening...

[Xx Karl xX]

Oh shoot, i just realized something. D3mon has to be a townie! see look:

If D3mon was scum, that means:

Rafay is Insane or paranoid
Kevin is Sane or naive
Imran is Sane or naive
Karl is Sane or naive

and we can't have 3 people that could each possibly be the same 2 roles. therefore D3mon has to be townie. so i'm gonna go ahead and follow d3mon since he's a confirmed townie and for the reasoning in my last post and

Vote: Imran

[Imran Ehsan]

Oh shoot, i just realized something. D3mon has to be a townie! see look:

If D3mon was scum, that means:

Rafay is Insane or paranoid
Kevin is Sane or naive
Imran is Sane or naive
Karl is Sane or naive

and we can't have 3 people that could each possibly be the same 2 roles. therefore D3mon has to be townie. so i'm gonna go ahead and follow d3mon since he's a confirmed townie and for the reasoning in my last post and

Vote: Imran

Whoa..hold up there. this is pretty interesting that you came up with a Town claim on kevinh several hours after I had already posted my investigation. It seems to me like the scum would wait until everyone has posted their investigations and then make a case and make up a claim to get a lynch. I havent had time to do an analysis of the results yet but from what I gather through a quick glance, from your analysis, it seems you are equally as likely to be scum as me. Except that you had chance and time to think up your strategy.

I will post again when I get a chance to go through the permutations, but putting it up here now so hopefully people will not be jumping on a quick lynch by following the scum.

[Kaziocore]

Imran Ehsan (2): d3mon, Xx Karl xX L-1

Not Voting (3): Imran Ehsan, KevinH, Rafay

Deadline: Friday, September 21 (3 days to go)

With 5 Alive, 3 is needed to lynch.
2 is needed to lynch on deadline.

[KevinH]

KevinH investigated Rafay and got town.
D3mon investigated Rafay and got scum.
Imran Ehsan investigated KevinH and got town.
Xx Karl xX investigated KevinH and got town.
Rafay investigated KevinH and got scum.

I agree with Karl's reasoning that D3mon is not scum.

I'm town. (Trust me!)

If Imran and Karl are town, then they use up the sane and naive.
The only way I could get town on Rafay is if I am insane and Rafay is scum.
D3mon would then be paranoid and everything works.

If Rafay is town, then I use up either a sane or naive and either Imran or Karl is scum.
D3mon and Rafay use up paranoid and and insane. Everything works.

I think we can solve this thing.

We should lynch now (see, I don't always advocate no-lynch ...)
Imran and Karl have the same history so one should be lynched.
I'll assume we lynch Imran for now, but feel free to substitute Imran for Karl in the following analysis.

I investigate D3mon:
if I get scum, then I am insane and Rafay is scum
if I get town, then I am either naive or sane with Rafay confirmed town

D3mon investigates Karl:
if he gets town, then D3mon is insane and Karl is scum
if he gets scum, then D3mon is paranoid

Rafay investigates Karl:
if he gets town, then Rafay is insane and Karl is scum
if he gets scum, then Rafay is paranoid

Karl investigates Rafay:
if he gets scum, then Karl is sane and Rafay is scum
if he gets town, then Karl is either naive or sane with Rafay confirmed town

Somebody is going to get night-killed and somebody is going to lie about his result,
but I think there will be enough information for the two remaining townies to make the right choice.

Mod: Will we be told the sanity of those who die?

[Kaziocore]

Mod: Will we be told the sanity of those who die?

Cop Sanity isn't revealed upon one's death.

[Imran Ehsan]

Well thats pretty nice analysis. I think its clear what should be done. Except karl should be lynched and not me.

vote xx karl xx

[Rafay]

Well I'm gonna stick with my investigation.

Vote: KevinH

[KevinH]

Vote: Xx Karl xX

He was the last to post his results and could have figured out the best way to lie.

[Xx Karl xX]

are you kidding? i was the first one to post and asked if we wanted to share our results... i didn't know if we wanted to share the results right away..then all you guys posted either late at night or early in the morning when i'm sleeping. how is that my fault that i was the last to post my result? all i know is that i am a cop and that d3mon is a cop. and now Imran is looking very scummy to me, so please don't make a mistake and vote for me. or at the very least, if you do decide to lynch me, go get Imran tomorrow and then i can say i told you so >.<

[Imran Ehsan]

are you kidding? i was the first one to post and asked if we wanted to share our results... i didn't know if we wanted to share the results right away..then all you guys posted either late at night or early in the morning when i'm sleeping. how is that my fault that i was the last to post my result?

Exactly something a scum will do. It was clear from the beginning of the game that the best way to find the scum, specially as we have an insane cop amongst is, is to post night investigations and look for inconsistencies. But you want to blend in with the crowd so you wanted to see what the strategy of the town will be before making your move. Hence, your inquiry as to what path the town is going to take.

In any case, I will get lynched as both me and karl both have 2 votes each and I reaches the half majority first. So either d3mon has to witch his vote or Rafay has to vote for karl before deadline to get the scum before he gets a chance to make a night kill.

[d3mon]

Exactly something a scum will do. It was clear from the beginning of the game that the best way to find the scum, specially as we have an insane cop amongst is, is to post night investigations and look for inconsistencies. But you want to blend in with the crowd so you wanted to see what the strategy of the town will be before making your move. Hence, your inquiry as to what path the town is going to take.

In any case, I will get lynched as both me and karl both have 2 votes each and I reaches the half majority first. So either d3mon has to witch his vote or Rafay has to vote for karl before deadline to get the scum before he gets a chance to make a night kill.

There are still a few days to the deadline and I am giving karl benefit of doubt because he posted a investigation result that would place him in the list of suspects. I might be wrong but since nobody has placed the hammer vote, I believe that one of you is scum.

[Xx Karl xX]

Exactly something a scum will do. It was clear from the beginning of the game that the best way to find the scum, specially as we have an insane cop amongst is, is to post night investigations and look for inconsistencies. But you want to blend in with the crowd so you wanted to see what the strategy of the town will be before making your move. Hence, your inquiry as to what path the town is going to take.

In any case, I will get lynched as both me and karl both have 2 votes each and I reaches the half majority first. So either d3mon has to witch his vote or Rafay has to vote for karl before deadline to get the scum before he gets a chance to make a night kill.

Oh really, it's "clear from the very beginning" please tell me where it says to post your results for everyone to see. if anyone here is acting scummy it's you. all i did was post my investigation result and then try to come up with a possible reason for all the results. i never even said the scum was you. i just said IF there wasn't a scum investigated then it probably was you. now you're just accusing me on the basis of "he posted his results last! he's scum! derp derp!" no actual reason to vote for me. please, everyone else, if you have any sense you'll see that i am not the scum and the only one acting scummy here is imran...

[KevinH]

Imran Ehsan, Xx Karl xX, and Rafay each have a 1/3 chance of being scum in my opinion.

(I believe Karl could easily be townie and post last.)

However, if we lynch Rafay and he's town then we are faced with a 50% guess between Imran and Karl.

If we lynch either Imran or Karl and are wrong, we could potentially be 100% sure of the remaining scum, depending on investigation results.

I also think there is value in seeing the discussion while two players are at L-1.

[Rafay]

I still think that I ain't insane cop but a sane one and my results were correct. If we lynch KevinH and he's a town then go ahead next day lynch me freely. But I'm a townie.

[Kaziocore]

Imran Ehsan (2): d3mon, Xx Karl xX L-1
Xx Karl xX (2): Imran Ehsan, KevinH L-1
KevinH (1): Rafay

Deadline: Friday, September 21 (2 days to go)

With 5 Alive, 3 is needed to lynch.
2 is needed to lynch on deadline.

Edited by Kaziocore, 19 September 2012 - 11:36 AM.

[KevinH]

I still think that I ain't insane cop but a sane one and my results were correct. If we lynch KevinH and he's a town then go ahead next day lynch me freely. But I'm a townie.

None of us townies know if we are sane or not. Why shouldn't D3mon think that he's sane and that his results are correct?

We need to look forward to tomorrow's knowledge.
Suppose you lynch me and get proof I'm town. Karl and Imran are both alive with the same day 1 investigation history.

[KevinH]

I investigate D3mon:
if I get scum, then I am insane and Rafay is scum
if I get town, then I am either naive or sane with Rafay confirmed town

D3mon investigates Karl:
if he gets town, then D3mon is insane and Karl is scum
if he gets scum, then D3mon is paranoid

Rafay investigates Karl:
if he gets town, then Rafay is insane and Karl is scum
if he gets scum, then Rafay is paranoid

Karl investigates Rafay:
if he gets scum, then Karl is sane and Rafay is scum
if he gets town, then Karl is either naive or sane with Rafay confirmed town

Feel free to substitute Imran for Karl in the following analysis.

Suppose I am night-killed.

If Rafay is scum, Karl will know for sure and D3mon can believe him with 50% confidence.
If Karl is scum, either D3mon or Rafay will know for sure; if D3mon knows, then Rafay will believe with 100% confidence; if Rafay knows, then D3mon can believe him with 50% confidence.

Suppose D3mon is night-killed.

If Rafay is scum, I will know for sure.
If Karl is scum, I will know for sure.

Suppose Rafay is night-killed.

Then Karl is scum.

Suppose Karl is night-killed.

Then Rafay is killed.

I am 100% sure that I will be night-killed. It's interesting that Rafay wants me lynched now. If D3mon is faced with the 50% choice, I think he should choose Rafay as most likely to be scum.

[Kaziocore]

Imran Ehsan (2): d3mon, Xx Karl xX L-1
Xx Karl xX (2): Imran Ehsan, KevinH L-1
KevinH (1): Rafay

Deadline: Friday, September 21 (24 hours to go)

With 5 Alive, 3 is needed to lynch.
2 is needed to lynch on deadline.