271 replies to this topic

[Preston]

 

Yeah, EM claiming to have 3 investigations in 2 days indeed seems to confirm him as scum. With Xarastier starting the day by voting for EM, I would lean towards Rafay being the other scum.

 

As for roleclaiming. If we have a real cop that has any information on Rafay/Xarastier, I think he should come forward today. Otherwise, I would be inclined to say that the powerroles should not come forward. We already know who to lynch, so a doc/roleblocker claiming now won't change our lynch. It will just provide the remaining scum with a target for tonight.

 

It's not going to change our lynch regardless; rather if we HAVE both a doc/jailer and a cop, then both being known can mean that the cop can claim and safely do their investigation tonight on Rafay/Xarastier.

 

If we have a doctor + cop, doctor protects the cop. If the cop still dies then the doctor lied.

If we have a jailer + cop, the jailer can jail one of Rafay/Xarastier while the cop investigates the other. If the night kill ISNT blocked, then the one jailed was not scum (or the jailer lied). If the night kill is blocked or scum chooses NOT to kill to try and mess with us, cop will have an investigation result. 

 

So I think having the info out here now to coordinate these tests is in our favor.

 

-Preston

Hmm it is actually an interesting point. It really depends on what our powerroles are. If we have a cop+doc combination, it is clearly in our best interest if they claim today. If we have a roleblocker, it is also in our best interest if he claims today. He could publicly state which of Xarastier/Rafay they are going to roleblock. If there still is a kill, that means the other of those two is scum and we win. If there is no kill, we lynch one of them and, should that turn out to be a townie, roleblock the other one the next night and win the next day.

 

However, if we have either only a cop or only a doc, they should most definitely not roleclaim since it would simply end in their death. 

 

So, it kind of depends on what you prefer. I think I would still favor waiting another day before roleclaiming. If we have a roleblocker, he can still do his job without roleclaiming. We will only get into trouble if he gets killed tonight, since in that case we would not know who he roleblocked. However, that can easily be remedied by all of us listing who we are going to roleblock if we are the roleblocker. Then if he gets killed tonight, we would know who he roleblocked and thus we would know that that person was not scum and we lynch the other of Xarastier/Rafay.

 

 

Basically, that means that we only gain something by roleclaiming today if we have both a cop and a doc. However, we would lose our powerrole if it turns out that we have only a cop or only a doc. The tricky part here is that the scum has had two opportunities to investigate a townies role. It seems unlikely that they investigated Imran, so I would say they investigated two people who are still alive. Evidently, the first one was a townie (he would have gotten killed otherwise), but we don't know about the second one. In any case, with 4 townies alive, even if they have found two townies so far, they have at least a 50% chance of killing off our powerrole tonight. So that actually makes me lean more towards a roleclaim. I think I need to consider this for a bit longer, since I have been flipflopping between pro/against roleclaiming while typing this post. 

 

 

My problem with waiting til tomorrow is that we'll be at LYLO then, and unable to act on what we learn from people having claimed and then testing their claims. Technically we're at LYLO today, but since we have EM to lynch that will buy us another day. To reiterate my previous post:

 

Today we're at 4 town, 2 scum.

Lynch EM today: 4 town, 1 scum

Night kill happens: 3 town, 1 scum.

 

So tomorrow if we lynch the wrong person we will be at 2 town, 1 scum

Night kill: 1 town, 1 scum and scum wins. 

 

So unless we are able to block a night kill, failure tomorrow is game over. Hence I would prefer to get roles claimed today so that they are testable tonight to inform our LYLO decision tomorrow. 

 

As for losing a power role when they claim; you were correct in your post when you said that scum has had two nights to investigate people, and odds are good they are both still alive - which means that the scum have either already found a role, or among the two left tonight they will kill one and investigate the other. So the chances are good that a power role will die tonight whether we claim today or not. 

 

I think it's cards-on-the-table time for us to figure out the best way to finish the game. Maybe we'll get lucky and EM is their scum role cop.

 

Also, with both Xarastier and Rafay voting for EM, it's distancing votes - question is if Xarastier doing so immediately was planned by scum at night, since EM was clearly going to be today's lynch regardless. 

 

-Preston

You are right that Xarastier's and Rafay's votes could be distancing votes. But there is also the matter of EM calling me out yesterday when I made a post assuming Xarastier was a townie (posts #195 and #196). I don't think EM would have called me out for that post if Xarastier was his partner. I would think he would have been happy with me implicitely stating Xarastier was town. Still, I am not ready to conclude that Rafay must be the second scum, but he is higher on my list than Xarastier.

Combined with Rafay's sudden vote for me with EM, that does indeed have me wondering. I need to look back, but my memory is of Rafay having a lot of posts where he sorta supports EM or in general doesnt do more than agree with others - either he's a timid townie or he's trying to follow EM's lead and make EM's case seem better. 

 

 

Well we can risk killing Preston. If he turns out innocent then EM is a sure lynch.

 

unvote

 

Vote: Preston.

Per above Rafay - today is LYLO (LYnch or LOse). That means we cannot 'risk' another townie death - if we dont get scum today, it's game over and town loses. Your sudden change is extremely suspect, especially with yourself and Xarastier being decided between to see which of you two is EM's partner.

 

-Preston

[Kaziocore]

Votecount 3.02

Electric Mango (1) - Xarastier
Rafay (0) -
Xarastier (0) -
Martino (0) -
Preston (2) - Electric Mango, Rafay
Chaplain of death (0) -

Not Voting (3) - Martino, Preston, Chaplain of death

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Preston is/are the current wagon leader/s at L-2
Deadline is Wednesday, April 24, 2013 @ 22:33 EDT

[Chaplain of death]

Agreed. Rafay's actions are quite suspicious. I think it would be best that if we have a cop they investigate Rafay tonight, and if we have a jailer they should jail Xarastier so that we will know which of them is scum tomorrow. If there is no night kill its Xarastier, and if we have a cop they will tell us if its Rafay. 

[Preston]

Agreed. Rafay's actions are quite suspicious. I think it would be best that if we have a cop they investigate Rafay tonight, and if we have a jailer they should jail Xarastier so that we will know which of them is scum tomorrow. If there is no night kill its Xarastier, and if we have a cop they will tell us if its Rafay. 

 

What are your thoughts on everyone roleclaiming as I've described?

 

It would be good to not be relying on "If we have" today so that we can better plan tonight. You and Martino are town, so whatever you two say about your roles will be the truth and we can make plans with that information. Rafay/Xarastier's claims will be something we can review and test, depending on what they say. If they dont roleclaim *today* then tomorrow at LYLO whichever of them is scum can claim they 'were' the doctor or something and didnt protect the right target, etc etc. We need the info today while we can set up tests for what they claim. 

 

Come to think of it, I would prefer Rafay/Xarastier post their roleclaims before CoD/Martino/Myself - the two being tested before the rest of us. Easier to catch scum in a lie that way. May as well ask for it now while we've got over an actual week left; no excuse for them to suddenly go inactive and avoid the question during the final days. 

 

How about it you two? Rafay, Xarastier - You're both going to claim you're really town, so now's an opportunity to prove it. What roles do you have, if any? Options are Vanilla Townie, Cop, Doctor, Jailer; which are you? 

 

-Preston

[Martino]

I am still not convinced everyone should roleclaim, but I agree with Rafay and Xarastier having to roleclaim.

[Rafay]

Fine by me go ahead investigate but really you'd be throwing away an investigation that could've been used to find a scum. Nonetheless since I'm innocent I've nothing to worry. Other than scum killing me tonight.

[Electric Mango]

sounds like Preston and Martino are our two scum partners.  After we lynch Preston we should go after Martino left.  Game over.

[Xarastier]

Votecount 3.02

Electric Mango (1) - Xarastier
Rafay (0) -
Xarastier (0) -
Martino (0) -
Preston (2) - Electric Mango, Rafay
Chaplain of death (0) -

Not Voting (3) - Martino, Preston, Chaplain of death

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Preston is/are the current wagon leader/s at L-2
Deadline is Wednesday, April 24, 2013 @ 22:33 EDT

Unvote Electric Mango.  Vote Preston for obvious reasons.  Btw, I'm a townie. 

[Chaplain of death]

Vote: Preston

[Preston]

 

Votecount 3.02

Electric Mango (1) - Xarastier
Rafay (0) -
Xarastier (0) -
Martino (0) -
Preston (2) - Electric Mango, Rafay
Chaplain of death (0) -

Not Voting (3) - Martino, Preston, Chaplain of death

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Preston is/are the current wagon leader/s at L-2
Deadline is Wednesday, April 24, 2013 @ 22:33 EDT

Unvote Electric Mango.  Vote Preston for obvious reasons.  Btw, I'm a townie. 

 

And now we have EM, Xarastier and Rafay *all* voting for me. Which of Xarastier and Rafay is town just gets harder to determine - they both are saying they are town but neither is actually roleclaiming to back up the statement. Rafay voted first saying we could 'risk' a mislynch today, and now Xarastier is voting "for obvious reasons" - aka no reason. So is Xarastier the scum jumping on after Rafay voted, or is Xarastier town joining an existing bandwagon started by the two scum EM and Rafay? I'm a little surprised EM's fake Cop roleclaim is actually convincing whichever of the two is actually town; doubly so since I'm the only one who was NOT voting for a townie yesterday!

 

The three known town at present are myself, Martino and CoD; so long as none of us applies the hammer then they cant end the day fast. We still have ten days to work out how we're going to test Xarastier and Rafay's towniness for tomorrow. I'd rather we not be stuck *guessing* between them tomorrow. 

 

We've asked Xarastier and Rafay to roleclaim, and so far they havent done so and both have posted. They need to roleclaim today so that we can have something to work with tomorrow - I was hoping whichever of the two is actually town would have been willing to come forward and claim since they really ARE innocent. A townie has should have no reason to lie in a roleclaim at this stage; whatever they say should be the truth. CoD, Martino - if you 

 

As for the rest of us claiming - again I think scum already knows who has a role at this point through past investigations and process of elimination for who's left. I'd like to see all three of us claim, and I know we're hesitant to do so on our own. 

 

-Preston

[Preston]

... Ah. So it was EM and CoD huh. Damn. You really did have me fooled CoD :-/ Good game.

 

-Preston

[Preston]

Since it's done with at this point, I'll throw it out: I was the cop this game. I investigated EM on night 1, saw him as scum. From that I drew that CoD *must* be town because EM was voting for him, since I thought he wouldnt vote for a scum buddy on day 1. 

 

Knowing EM was scum, I waited a while on day 2 until I saw who he pushed for - and hence concluded Imran was town along with CoD, since whoever EM voted for had to be town. Thats why I suddenly shifted suspicion to EM on day 2, figuring Imran and CoD had to be innocent - and why I was saying it could not be BOTH CoD and someone, since I knew EM was scum. 

 

But it seems CoD *was* scum... which pulled the premise out from under a lot of my analysis :-/

 

I didnt want to roleclaim on day 2 even though I had a positive match, since not knowing if we had a doc would keep me from investigating on night 2 if they killed me. I investigated Martino on night 2, proved he was town. 

 

When EM fakeclaimed at the start of today, I figured he HAD to have investigated me last night and saw I was the cop - but I didnt want to immediately claim, again. Perhaps I should have... ah well. First time with an actual power role for me :-p

 

-Preston

[Preston]

One more addendum: the reason i was looking for roleclaims from other town was to hope that we DID have a doc or jailer, so that I could 'safely' claim and not be the only power role out there. A doc would've been helpful... but if I was choosing between Rafay and Xarastier and one turned up not town, we would have lynched the other... and that'd be game over anyway since it looks like CoD was it. Bah. 

 

I guess in retrospect we might have hope... if we DO have a doctor or jailer among those of us left and they can block the night kill, then we know it's EM and CoD for tomorrow. If we dont block... then it's game over. 

 

-Preston

[Preston]

Bleh, sometimes its annoying you cant edit posts! Just one more addendum then I'm done.

 

Martino/Rafay/Xarastier - if any of you is a doc or a jailer, DONT claim now! If you're a doc, block someone else and hope you get lucky. If you're a jailer, then you can block either EM or CoD and hope with 50% odds you blocked the right one. If we dont have either and I was the only power role, then town has no means to prevent a scum win at this stage. 

 

It's funny... CoD could have gone along with lynching EM today, and then had us lynch either Rafay or xarastier tomorrow - and noone would have really suspected him. He tipped his hand by hammering today the way he did, a little earlier than a 100% assured win. I'll be quite amused if we DO manage to block a night kill tonight and now know exactly who the scum are for tomorrow. 

 

-Preston

[Chaplain of death]

Yes, if you do block the kill it will be quite annoying. However if EM had been lynched, I stood a chance but not an amazing one. It would have come down to you would investigate one tonight, and if there was a jailer then they would jail the other one. I would have then night killed Preston, setting up whichever one you investigated for a lynch. However, there is also the possibility that there was a doctor, which would have made it quite difficult. As it is, I like our chances.

[Chaplain of death]

Also you were right Preston, we found out you were a cop 2 nights ago, (didn't want to kill you last night cause it would have guaranteed a lynch on EM), and last night we found the other power role. So its an even smaller chance that they will block the night kill than you may have thought.

[Electric Mango]

Well I guess the cat is officially out of the bag now   Good game everyone.  

[Martino]

Wth. There is no way we should have lost this game. Certainly not today already.

[Chaplain of death]

You haven't lost quite yet. Tonight will decide the game.

[Preston]

Hm. Well your having found the other power role and us still having a chance at ALL would mean that it's a jailer instead of a doc, and their only chance is to jail one of you two and play the 50% odds game since they cant protect themselves. Leaves things quite up to chance!

 

Also, I'm curious - objectively, do you all think I should have roleclaimed on day 2 when I'd found EM on night 1? I was hoping to swing votes that way without claiming, so that I could investigate SOMEONE on night 2... I figured that a day 2 claim would all but guarantee me being killed on night 2. 

 

I probably could/should have claimed earlier in the day today after EM fakeclaimed, but I figured doing so immediately would weaken my position.

 

Really, the main thing that threw me off was EM's going with CoD on day 1... very misleading indeed. Well played. 

 

-Preston