"You first state that there are serious cons to letting Rafay live if he has claimed a power role without saying which one. In the next post you say that, if Rafay does not claim his role, it would be an excellent play for the scum to kill rafay and that we should, therefore, lynch him to deprive them of that play."

 

Fixed it for you.

 

FYI, you typically use that phrase when your changes actually make a difference. Lynching a possible power role to deprive the scum of fake claiming is a terrible strategy. It is on par with mass suiciding to prevent the scum from killing us.

 

 

Our work is to lynch the most likely scum and to prevent the scum from increasing their information advantage. Until Rafay claims his role both of these involve lynching him.

 

Our work is to eliminate the scum. It does not matter whether we lynch them or they die during the night. Also, forcing a power role to claim does not exactly coincide with preventing the scum from increasing their information advantage. Who is a powerrole is the only information they do not have yet.

 

 

You claim that scum would want to keep the vig alive because he might accidentally kill townies. But then you also claim that they would want to kill the other scum faction. Need I remind you that the other scum faction might kill townies on purpose. DOES NOT COMPUTE.

 

Yeah, this is where you show that you haven’t even read most of my posts. I did absolutely not claim that they want to keep the vig alive because he might kill a townie. I said that if Rafay is the cop, they must kill him. However, if he is the vig or roleblocker, they might let him live for a while. They might do that to either confuse us or because they hope the other scum faction kills him. 

 

 

It does not make their decision easier because their can not be any easier. Town power roles favor town - scum don't want that - scum kill town power roles (gaining information advantage in the process).

 

As I said, you might want to actually read some of my posts before replying to them. I have already explained this before. Anyway, the main point is that there are two scum factions. Yes they want to kill the powerroles. However, they would prefer to not use both their NK on the same target. If Rafay is the cop, it will definitely be worth two nightkills. So they won’t worry about possible wasting a nightkill and they will target him. If he is the roleblocker or vig, they might not necessarily want to target him tonight. They could hope that the other scum faction kills him while they get rid of another townie. As long as Rafay’s powerrole is not known, it forces the scum to take a guess. Do they target Rafay and risk having both nightkills target the roleblocker/vig or do they target someone else and risk having the cop alive for another night?

 

 

The idea that scum will do our work for us and keep our power roles alive is delusional. In case you didn't know... they have a different win condition.

 

 

Actually, their win condition is only partly different. Just like us, the mafia needs to kill the SK and just like us the SK needs to kill the mafia. As I have explained quite a few times now, no matter whether Rafay is a powerrole or a lying scum, the other scum factions knows that he is one of the more dangerous players out there for them. For us, he is actually beneficial to the town if he is a powerrole, or he is one of the bigger dangers out there if he is scum. That simply means that it is more important to the scum that he dies than it is to us.

So they are not doing our work for us, they are doing their own work. Which might coincide with our work (if he is the other scum faction) or it might be very harmful to our cause (if he is a powerrole).

 

 

We may not be able to completely trust role claims after night 1 but, since there's a good chance that scum does not hit a power role in night 1, we can at least trust them to some extent. If we don't lynch Rafay however, and he dies tonight, then we can no longer trust them at all.

 

 

If you want to trust a role claim after night 1, you are simply taking a gamble. You are praying that the scum did not kill that role. There are 3 powerroles among 12 players. In addition, there are two night kills. That means that the odds of a powerrole being NKed are a little over 50%. Trusting a roleclaim after night 1 is a huge gamble even if it is not Rafay that got NKed.

 

 

This is getting quite out of hand and I know Rafay was online last night.

 

 

 

Yeah, this is where you show that you haven’t even read most of my posts. I did absolutely not claim that they want to keep the vig alive because he might kill a townie. I said that if Rafay is the cop, they must kill him. However, if he is the vig or roleblocker, they might let him live for a while. They might do that to either confuse us or because they hope the other scum faction kills him.

Absolutely ridiculous, the vig is extremely dangerous for the scum, he could kill them without giving them a chance.

The roleblocker is also somewhat dangerous and can protect/save townies from being nightkilled.

What can the Dietician do? His own power could get him lynched.

 

No, if anything the Dietician is the one they will let live, not that they would let him live.

You make it sound as if he is an unstoppable force that can not be stopped, he is not.

 

Rafay could be scum.

He is not definitely town and he has done nothing to help the town yet, don't think about him living through the night confusing us.

This is confusing us and it will only continue to confuse us if he does not make a claim.

 

 

 

Trusting a roleclaim after night 1 is a huge gamble even if it is not Rafay that got NKed.

 

That's why we should not trust them fully, I certainly would not trust them.

If we don't vote Rafay we would be voting someone else who could be town.

Rafay could be a town power role but he could also be scum, if I had to make a statement as to who was the player who was most likely to be scum, it would be Rafay.

 

 

 

Vote Rafay

Wow.The cop is less dangerous for the scum than the vig/roleblocker? Just wow.

I'm not going to discuss the Dietician any further until Rafay decides what he is going to do, for certain reasons.

Though this has little to with those reasons.

The Dietician doesn't have too many plays and if he decides to act on them he opens himself up to been NK or Lynched.

I don't want to role-claim especially so early on in the game. I think I can affect the night today. If by my understanding of CoD's mechanics at least the town won't be at a disadvantage tonight.

 

If Rafay did not false-claim, then the above info is interesting. If he can affect night actions that means he is not the cop, as the cop can only investigate. That means he is either the Vigilante or the roleblocker. Since he also says the town wont be at a disadvantage, that means (to me) he is not the vigilante, as the vig has a good probability of killing a townie or another PR. That means he is the roleblocker. Of course, theres a chance the roleblocker can cause disadvantage to the townies if he picks the cop to roleblock but the chance of that is very slim (1/12). In view of these I will recommend not lynching Rafay as lynching him really does not help the town. Let the scum use their actions to take him out.

 

I also do not think Rafay false-claimed. If he was scum I dont see the benefits of false claiming on Day 1. It is much easier for the scum to false claim on day 2 or day 3 if they happen to kill a PR the previous nights. I think it was very very poor decision to reveal that he is a PR so early and with only .what..3 votes on him...so its just bad play on his part, which does not equal to being a scum.

There was I think 6 votes on Rafay when he revealed.

I don't particularly want to vote for Rafay as I think there is a potential usefulness for the town in keeping him alive.

 

There is too many variables.

I believe the question is how far will someone go to help the town, Rafay may have went all the way.

There was I think 6 votes on Rafay when he revealed.

I don't particularly want to vote for Rafay as I think there is a potential usefulness for the town in keeping him alive.

 

There is too many variables.

I believe the question is how far will someone go to help the town, Rafay may have went all the way.

 

Not clear on what you mean by going all the way to help the town. If there were 6 votes then his hand may have been forced to reveal about the PR. Still poor play as he should have tried to defend himself against the accusations instead of role-claiming. I will go back and check how many votes he had. But still that does not id him as scum, as there are two scum factions. If Rafay is scum and claimed to be a PR that would mean he is doing that with knowledge that he will instantly become a target to be hit at night by the other scum faction. So he is just delaying being killed from the day to night. Not sure how that would help the scum.

This is the post in question. Rafay went up to 6 votes (pretty fast bandwagon there by killgor and CS) but Euclid unvoted almost right away followed by CS. Rafay had 4 votes on him when he roleclaimed. So yeah he should have tried to defend himself without roleclaiming. If anything the sequence of events at that time make killgor and CS look scummier then it does Rafay.

He had 6 but then it went down to 4 which is when he post about him being important, he already had 4 before me and killgor voted him so us voting him were the reason for his revelation.

Perhaps he seen his name mentioned too many times and needed to say something.

 

By all the way I mean, Rafay has no power role and he is just an ordinary townie.

He thought he was close to being lynched or in the process of being lynched so he said something a normal townie could say when under the hammer.

"He is important to the town", saying that could potential save him from being lynched but someone else would need to be lynched instead.

Him not being lynched makes him a high target for scum, all the scum factions use their actions on him, so potentially none of the town power roles are dead going into day 2.

Though the vig could kill a power role and we could lynch a power role.

If anything the sequence of events at that time make killgor and CS look scummier then it does Rafay.

 

Possibly, it doesn't point one way or the other much like many of the things I seen so far.

It is hard to say what is scummy, scummy can be anything and if it is anything how do I determine if it is scummy or not.

Was killgor scummy after he unvoted and then went on to vote as other make out? I don't know, all I know is that found his answers lacking.

Lacking answers could be seen as scummy.

KevinH could be seen as scummy, I don't know if I see anything particular scummy about him.

Your scummy is different than others peoples scummy, Nerau thinks/thought me and Rafay were scummy together much like you.

There many scummy views and none that are conclusive.

 

The only reason I see for Rafay not stating what role he is if he is scum or a normal townie.

Okay, Martino, since the information advantage angle does not impress you, here's another reason to lynch Rafay if he does not claim.

 

Due to his soft-claim we can be pretty sure that Rafay is either scum or a town PR. I at least can't see him being VT after that.

 

That means that with Rafay we have a 3/6 = 50% chance of lynching a scum, while with anyone else we only have 22.7% chance to lynch a scum.

Actually, while I strongly disagree, I can at least understand that you might want him to claim. However, I cannot understand that you still think it is even a decent idea to lynch him. He is a dead man. No matter what we do, he will not make it to the end of this game. If he is scum, then the other scum faction cannot afford to let him live (since they know he is either oposing scum or a powerrole). If he is a power role, then both scum faction cannot afford to let him live. Why would we get rid of our 22.7% chance of lynching a scum to lynch someone who is going to die anyway?

Why would we get rid of our 22.7% chance of lynching a scum to lynch someone who is going to die anyway?

 

One reason would be that in lynching Rafay we would have a 16.7% chance to lynch the SK, which is more than twice the 7.6% chance if we lynch someone else.

 

If you consider how beneficial lynching the SK on Day 1 is to the town those extra 9.1% are an excellent reason to give it a shot.

 

The SK doubles the scum motivated murder rate at night and the SK cannot be killed in night 1. Leaving it up to the night killers to take care of the SK only ensures that he will kill at least twice. Compared to lynching him Day 1 we would probably be 2 townies down, likely including a town power role. I think we should definitely go for a 9.1% extra chance to prevent these horrors.

I've done some number crunching on what happens if everyone believes Rafay's claim, or at least acts as though its true. Specifically, I have looked into the claim that if town does not kill Rafay he is a dead man nonetheless because scum will.

 

I have assumed that:
- Rafay is not VT.

- Town does not lynch Rafay.
- The vig will not try to kill Rafay.
- The RB will not try to block Rafay.
- Scum will try to kill Rafay unless they are aligned to him.
- If Rafay is a goon, unless the other goon is lynched, Rafay will not perform their night kill.
- All else is assumed to be completely random.
 

It turns out that under these assumptions Rafay has a 20.5% chance to survive night 1. 16.7% of that is the chance that Rafay is the SK, 3.4% the chance that he is a goon while the SK gets lynched or blocked, and 0.5% the chance that he is a town PR while the SK gets lynched and the goon gets blocked.

 

Rafay's survival odds for night 1 would be about 1 in 5 so unless we lynch him I would not quite call him a dead man yet.

I've done some number crunching on what happens if everyone believes Rafay's claim, or at least acts as though its true. Specifically, I have looked into the claim that if town does not kill Rafay he is a dead man nonetheless because scum will.

 

I have assumed that:

- Rafay is not VT.

- Town does not lynch Rafay.

- The vig will not try to kill Rafay.

- The RB will not try to block Rafay.

- Scum will try to kill Rafay unless they are aligned to him.

- If Rafay is a goon, unless the other goon is lynched, Rafay will not perform their night kill.

- All else is assumed to be completely random.

 

It turns out that under these assumptions Rafay has a 20.5% chance to survive night 1. 16.7% of that is the chance that Rafay is the SK, 3.4% the chance that he is a goon while the SK gets lynched or blocked, and 0.5% the chance that he is a town PR while the SK gets lynched and the goon gets blocked.

 

Rafay's survival odds for night 1 would be about 1 in 5 so unless we lynch him I would not quite call him a dead man yet.

Well, the game will not end after night one. If he survives N1 because he can absorb a nightkill as the SK, he will die N2. So those 16.7% don't really matter. In the other scenario he survives because we lynch the SK. That seems like a pretty good scenario to me as well.

If he survives N1 because he can absorb a nightkill as the SK, he will die N2. So those 16.7% don't really matter.

By that time we will probably have two more dead townies on our hand, one of which is likely a PR. Those deaths can be prevented by lynching him Day 1.

 

I found an error in my calculations. The correct odds for Rafay surviving night 1 are 23.2%. The following scenarios contribute to that:

- 16.7% that he is the SK

- 3.0% that he is a goon and the SK is lynched

- 3.0% that he is a goon and the SK is blocked

- 0.5% that he is a town PR, the SK is lynched and the goon is blocked

In the other scenario he survives because we lynch the SK. That seems like a pretty good scenario to me as well.

Not as good as you suggest though, as half of that scenario is due to the SK being blocked rather than lynched.

i don't know how you people got those numbers.

2 days and 5 hours until deadline.

From what I've seen, I'm inclined to believe Rafay and I don't think we should lynch him for today.  Maybe wait to see how the night goes before we decide.

i don't know how you people got those numbers.

I calculated them as follows.

 

Under the given assumptions.

 

- 1/6 chance that Rafay is the SK -> 1/6 = 16.7% chance that Rafay survives

- 2/6 chance that Rafay is a goon, in which case

- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK -> 2/6 x 1/11 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives

- 9/11 chance that we lynch neither SK nor RB, in which case

- 1/9 chance that the RB blocks the SK -> 2/6 x 9/11 x 1/9 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives

- 1/6 chance that Rafay is the RB, in which case

- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case

- 1/10 chance that Rafay will block the killing goon -> 1/6 x 1/11 x 1/10 = 0.15% chance that Rafay survives

- 2/6 chance that Rafay is the vig or the dietician, in which case

- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case

- 1/9 chance that the RB will block the killing goon -> 2/6 x 1/11 x 1/9 = 0.34% chance that Rafay survives

 

In all other cases Rafay dies.

That was supposed to have identation. Maybe this will work.

 

* - 1/6 chance that Rafay is the SK -> 1/6 = 16.7% chance that Rafay survives

* - 2/6 chance that Rafay is a goon, in which case

* - 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK -> 2/6 x 1/11 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives

* - 9/11 chance that we lynch neither SK nor RB, in which case

* - 1/9 chance that the RB blocks the SK -> 2/6 x 9/11 x 1/9 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives

* - 1/6 chance that Rafay is the RB, in which case

* - 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case

* - 1/10 chance that Rafay will block the killing goon -> 1/6 x 1/11 x 1/10 = 0.15% chance that Rafay survives

* - 2/6 chance that Rafay is the vig or the dietician, in which case

* - 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case

* - 1/9 chance that the RB will block the killing goon -> 2/6 x 1/11 x 1/9 = 0.34% chance that Rafay survives

This editor sucks. Sorry about that. I think I figured it out now though.

 

- 1/6 chance that Rafay is the SK -> 1/6 = 16.7% chance that Rafay survives

- 2/6 chance that Rafay is a goon, in which case

- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK -> 2/6 x 1/11 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives

- 9/11 chance that we lynch neither SK nor RB, in which case

- 1/9 chance that the RB blocks the SK -> 2/6 x 9/11 x 1/9 = 3.0% chance that Rafay survives

- 1/6 chance that Rafay is the RB, in which case

- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case

- 1/10 chance that Rafay will block the killing goon -> 1/6 x 1/11 x 1/10 = 0.15% chance that Rafay survives

- 2/6 chance that Rafay is the vig or the dietician, in which case

- 1/11 chance that we lynch the SK, in which case

- 1/9 chance that the RB will block the killing goon -> 2/6 x 1/11 x 1/9 = 0.34% chance that Rafay survives

Kazio and Nerau where are you? 

I love the numbers, I really do.

 

However, with 2 scum factions both wanting dead townies, I think there's a large chance that they'd both choose alternate targets hoping the other faction would make the kill on the known townie.  Also, the Mafia will consider that he might be the Serial Killer and not want to waste a shot hitting the immunity.  If he survived, it would be easy to lynch him with the justification that since he survived, he must be scum.