Players 12/12

1. reign of terror

2. Kaziocore

3. Nerau

4. killgor

5. KevinH

6. Martino

7. Rafay

8. Commander Shepard

9. Lyner

10. Imran Ehsan

11. Euclid of Alexandria

12. Xarastier Xx Karl xX

 

Alive 4/12

Nerau

Commander Shepard
Imran Ehsan
Xarastier Xx Karl xX Alternate Tree

 

 

Missing

 

reign of terror

 

 

Dead

Killgor

KevinH

Rafay

Lyner

Euclid of Alexandria

Martino

Kaziocore

 

Oh gawd I missed 2 people who were not voting....... I would say sorry, but the lack of relevance is apathy inducing. Regardless, I will 1.06 to reflect that neither Lyner or Commander Shepard have voted even though it already reflects such by their votes having been taken off.

That's an interesting vote count, I don't have any strong feelings for voting one player or another of the ones that have the votes.

I would not vote Rafay for the fact he will probably be killed during the night.

I would have unvoted Rafay if he had really claimed a power role. He has not done so though. He just said that he is important to town.

 

It is nowhere near sure that someone that falsely claims a power role would be night killed. He might very well convince the real power role to protect him and/or not kill him. That would especially work well if he would suggest to have a power role but not claim a particular one. As in that case he would avoid the real power role from knowing that he is lying. If you wish to interpret #156 as a power role claim then that is exactly what Rafay has done.

In addition, that ploy:

1) would prevent us from lynching a scum on day 1

2) would cause us to waste 1, 2 maybe 3 power role actions in night 1

3) would, if the false claimer is the SK, probably cause us an extra loss during the night

 

Since I think Rafay is lying, I do not want to risk all of the above. If he makes a proper claim I will remove my vote though.

Also if Rafay is in fact the SK he can not even be night killed as he wold have one time immunity.

Good point, if he has nothing further to add then I may vote him later.

Furthermore, if he is night killed we would still not know if he lied or not. Unless 1) he is killed by the vig, 2) the vig is not also night killed, 3) the vig is willing to role claim over it on Day 2.

 

All in all, the gains for scum in falsely claiming a power role without saying which power role it is are enormous IMO. Hence my not being impressed at all by Rafay's #156. In fact, I think #156 is kind of scummy.

On top of that, the vig killing him or us lynching him requires the same amount of disbelief in his #156. Therefore, with a policy of not killing half hearted claimers such as Rafay, he would as best be killed by the other scum faction and tomorrow we'd be none the wiser about what his real alignment and role were.

Given all of the above. If a power role were to claim, the townish thing to do would be to claim a particular role. The scummish thing to do on the other hand would be to be non-specific as Rafay has so far been. And, may I add, unless he was trying to be funny, in which case I'm missing the punch line, so has KevinH been in #300.

Anytime anyone says they're important to the town, to me that implies they're more important than the other townies.

Which suggests they're claiming an unspecific power role.

I'd prefer if no one use made claims like this but it does make it more interesting.

Oh gawd I missed 2 people who were not voting....... I would say sorry, but the lack of relevance is apathy inducing. Regardless, I will 1.06 to reflect that neither Lyner or Commander Shepard have voted even though it already reflects such by their votes having been taken off.

 

Of course, there's always Killgor's extra vote on himself which appears to bring his vote count up to 2 which indeed could be relevant.

My point is that a scum would have plenty of reasons for an unspecific claim, while a townie power role should always be specific when claiming. Therefore I will not accept unspecific claims and in fact I see them as a scum tell. Rafay can rectify this matter with a proper claim if he wishes to.

And, may I add, unless he was trying to be funny, in which case I'm missing the punch line, so has KevinH been in #300.

Let me explain the punch line.

 

Martino says he wants to vote for me because Rafay made the following claim:

But plz understand, rethink and re-vote.

I made the exact same claim:

Please understand, rethink, and revote.

 

By the transitive property, we should vote for Martino because he's voting for me after I made the same claim as Rafay.

Ah, okay. You were faking a false unspecific claim.    It had slipped my mind that Martino has his vote on you. Now that you've pointed that out though, yeah, I can see the humor of the transitivity.

 

Anyway, Martino, are my recent posts reason for you to reconsider your stance on unspecific claims? Or do you maintain that accepting unspecific claims is in the interest of the town?

 

i haven't been dodging it, i've been ignoring it.

Dodging, ignoring, same difference.

 

actually there is a dfference. dodging implies for me that i try and answer that but not really answer it because i think it'll put me in hot water. ignoring it would though be me going like: "i'm not even gonna bother answering that"

 

 

i'm too comfortable of a person to go back and reread all the pages i had to read to come up with that impression.

Still dodging. You don't need to reread all the pages. Just tell us in your own words how you came to have that impression. If you have already forgotten how you came to have that impression then it must have been a pretty weak impression.

 

 

i already did that. i can't say i have another explination. if you don't like it or if think it's not good enough, i can't help you much.

In the future KevinH, try just saying what's wrong (the fact that I put Kazio's vote as Killgor by accident) rather than being a smart ass. Please and thank you. Fixed.

if Rafay was what he says he is why be so vague upon it? The mafia would surely kill b/c he becomes a known townie. So I believe he did so to mislead

Ah, okay. You were faking a false unspecific claim.    It had slipped my mind that Martino has his vote on you. Now that you've pointed that out though, yeah, I can see the humor of the transitivity.

 

Anyway, Martino, are my recent posts reason for you to reconsider your stance on unspecific claims? Or do you maintain that accepting unspecific claims is in the interest of the town?

Most definitely not. Typically you want as little to be known about our powerroles as possible. The more the scum knows, the easier it is for them to make the right play. Since we haven't even had a night yet, we don't need to know whether he is a cop or a doc. In either case we don't want to lynch him. However, the right play of the scum depends a lot on whether he is a cop or a doc.

 

Besides, if he is scum, specifically claiming cop/doc might tempt the real cop/doc to counter claim. We don't need that. Rafay is dead. At some point or another one of the scum factions needs to kill him off. They can't risk him nightkilling them instead (or if he is the cop investigating them). They need him dead, there is no reason for us to do their work for them. Especially not since we could very well kill off one of our powerroles.

Softclaiming is a null tell. Rafay is probably telling the truth.

Softclaiming is a null tell. Rafay is probably telling the truth.

 

I'll have to agree with Euclid on this.

The Scum now somewhat know Rafay is probably a power role, he should come out as to which power role he is because we already know he is as good as dead, so if he dies we will not know what he was and the scum could use this to their advantage. 

And to counter the claim of Rafay dragging an actual power role out, I urge the actual power role to not come out if Rafay is indeed lying.

I don't want to role-claim especially so early on in the game. I think I can affect the night today. If by my understanding of CoD's mechanics at least the town won't be at a disadvantage tonight.

What exactly are we going to do with that information? What difference does it make whether he is going to claim Dietician, Vigilante or Roleblocker? I know it would make a difference as to what the scum might do. They can't allow the dietician to live, but might be willing to let the roleblocker live another day in the hopes of us lynching him.

The Roleblocker has the same chance of blocking the Dietician or Vigilante as he does of blocking the Killing Goon or the Serial Killer. A case could be made for the scum letting the known Roleblocker live while they would rather take a chance on finding the other power roles. Also, the Mafia and Serial Killer can't communicate. It's in both their interests to kill 2 townies rather than 1, so each faction might hope the other kills the known townie and target somebody else. In fact, they would ideally like to eliminate each other.

 

All that is to say that I don't think an unspecific townie role claim guarantees that player will killed in the night.

 

On the other hand, if you are scum with a few votes accumulating, what would you claim?

Martino, if this were a regular game where we would find out Rafay's role and alignment if he is night killed I would agree with you and I would have already removed my vote. This isn't a regular game though. If Rafay does not claim a specific role then there are four possibilities.

 

1a. He is a lying scum and we don't lynch him. In this case we would be short of a scum lynch today, we would likely waste power role actions tonight and we would if he is the SK have an extra town loss tonight as well. He might still very well survive the night, especially if he is the SK, and whether he dies tonight or not, tomorrow we would still not know for sure whether he is lying or not.

 

1b. He is a lying scum and we lynch him. This is simply the best possible result we could hope for on Day 1, especially if he happens to be the SK who cannot be night killed tonight.

 

2a. He is telling the truth and we don't lynch him. He could perform his night action. However if he is killed tonight we would still not know for sure that he was telling the truth, while the scum that killed him would know and would certainly use that to their advantage. Neither would we get the result from his night action as he would not be around to tell us. And even if he does survive the night, since the town gets no information about role and alignment of the night kills, we would tomorrow still have no way to be sure about anything Rafay would claim happened during the night, nor about his own claim of role and alignment. The scum would have to use their night action on Rafay giving some protection to others, but I'd say the scum would happily do so to kill a power role.

 

2b. He is telling the truth and we lynch him. We would be short of one night action, lose his power role, and the scum would be able to use their night actions for something else. On the other hand we would prevent that the scum gain a valuable information advantage that they would use against us.

 

Now how to evaluate this. Of the options 1a and 1b where he is a lying scum lynching him would be most excellent and not lynching him would be most horrible. The two options 2a and 2b where he is telling the truth on the other hand both have there pros and cons. I guess its a matter of opinion how to evaluate those, but I would say that 2a where we don't lynch him still has some serious cons even when he is telling the truth.

 

Conclusion: when presented with these options, the best play is to lynch him.

 

This conclusion is especially valid as Rafay could change the option we have to our advantage by claiming a specific role as in that case no matter what happens during the night, if he is lying at least one of us will know and most of the cons of not lynching would evaporate.

 

So I ask you, if Rafay is indeed a power role, why would he put us in this predicament by not claiming a specific role? As Shepard noted, there is no point in keeping the specific role a secret as scum will know anyway when they kill him tonight. There is on the other hand plenty of reason to be specific as only then will town also have that information.

 

If Rafay is lying though, it is pretty obvious why he would not want to make his claim specific. If he would then their would after all be at least one of us that would know that he is lying.

 

There simply is no town motivation for not being specific.

 

Add to this the following. Rafay claimed very early in the day. If he was a true power role trying to keep his role secret he would have been much more likely to wait and see what happens. As the day progresses some people could very well have unvoted him for other reasons than him claiming or a larger wagon could have come up with someone else. So, why in the hell did he not wait with his claim until the dead line was much closer? I can so no reason for it and thus it just adds to my feeling that he is a lying scum.

 

Addi

Hmm. I accidentally hit post before I was completely done editing that. I think my case is clear though.