Players 12/12

1. reign of terror

2. Kaziocore

3. Nerau

4. killgor

5. KevinH

6. Martino

7. Rafay

8. Commander Shepard

9. Lyner

10. Imran Ehsan

11. Euclid of Alexandria

12. Xarastier Xx Karl xX

 

Alive 4/12

Nerau

Commander Shepard
Imran Ehsan
Xarastier Xx Karl xX Alternate Tree

 

 

Missing

 

reign of terror

 

 

Dead

Killgor

KevinH

Rafay

Lyner

Euclid of Alexandria

Martino

Kaziocore

 

No CC means Rafay is town. I knew there's something different with the way he defends himself when town.

welp, call me selfish, but i want to live. on top of that, i don't know why kevin wanted to keep his vote on rafay after he roleclaimed.

 

vote: KevinH

i don't know why kevin wanted to keep his vote on rafay after he roleclaimed.

Because I'm skeptical of the role-claim being true.

 

If I was the real Roleblocker, I wouldn't counter-claim.

First, it would put a target on me.

Second, Rafay could only come from one scum faction.

The other scum faction would kill him (eventually) so there's no need to counter-claim to force a lynch.

Vote count 1.08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

reign of terror (0) -

Kaziocore (1) - Rafay,

Nerau (0) - 

killgor (4) - Imran Ehsan, Kaziocore, KevinH, Lyner,

KevinH (4) - Xx Karl xX, Martino, Euclid of Alexandria, Killgor, 

Martino (0) – 

Rafay (0) - 

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (0) -

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (0) - 
 

Not voting (3) - reign of terror, Commander Shepard,  Nerau,

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

KevinH, and Killgor are tied for current wagon leader at L-3

Deadline is Thursday, May 9th, 2013 @ 21:00 PST

 

I would prefer not to extend the day AGAIN. His inactivity is regrettable, and I will prod him, but I'm not going to extend the deadline. If enough of you guys are upset about Karl's vote and it ends up being what decides who will be lynched, then I can randomize between the wagon leaders.

 

Also, deadline in 3 hours 45 minutes. 

Vote count 1.08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

reign of terror (0) -

Kaziocore (1) - Rafay,

Nerau (0) - 

killgor (4) - Imran Ehsan, Kaziocore, KevinH, Lyner,

KevinH (4) - Xx Karl xX, Martino, Euclid of Alexandria, Killgor, 

Martino (0) – 

Rafay (0) - 

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (0) -

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (0) - 

 

Not voting (3) - reign of terror, Commander Shepard,  Nerau,

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

KevinH, and Killgor are tied for current wagon leader at L-3

Deadline is Thursday, May 9th, 2013 @ 21:00 PST

 

I would prefer not to extend the day AGAIN. His inactivity is regrettable, and I will prod him, but I'm not going to extend the deadline. If enough of you guys are upset about Karl's vote and it ends up being what decides who will be lynched, then I can randomize between the wagon leaders.

 

Also, deadline in 3 hours 45 minutes. 

Please don't randomize. Just follow what's in the rules.

 

i don't know why kevin wanted to keep his vote on rafay after he roleclaimed.

Because I'm skeptical of the role-claim being true.

 

If I was the real Roleblocker, I wouldn't counter-claim.

First, it would put a target on me.

Second, Rafay could only come from one scum faction.

The other scum faction would kill him (eventually) so there's no need to counter-claim to force a lynch.

If Rafay was the real roleblocker and scum night killed him,

they would use it to claim later. They will then convince the

players who suspected Rafay that they're the real roleblocker.

 

reign of terror (0) -

 

Kaziocore (1) - Rafay,

Nerau (0) - 

killgor (4) - Imran Ehsan, Kaziocore, KevinH, Lyner,

KevinH (4) - Xx Karl xX, Martino, Euclid of Alexandria, Killgor, 

Martino (0) – 

Rafay (0) - 

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (0) -

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (0) - 

 

Not voting (3) - reign of terror, Commander Shepard,  Nerau,

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

KevinH, and Killgor are tied for current wagon leader at L-3

Deadline is Thursday, May 9th, 2013 @ 21:00 PST

 

Killgor, Vanilla Townie, has been lynched.

 

Night actions are due by 20:00 PST (an hour earlier than this) on Sunday.

As the sun comes up, the town discovers that several people are missing. 

 

Martino, Kaziocore, and reign of terror have gone missing during the night.

 

Day 2 begins!

 

Vote count 2.0

 

 

 

 

Nerau (0) - 

KevinH (0) - 

Rafay (0) - 

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (0) -

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (0) - 

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Nobody is the current wagon leader.

Deadline is Saturday, May 25th, 2013 @ 11:00 PST

 

 

I don't know what to make of it, I just hope we got at least one scum.

It's hard to make anything of it. However, since Rafay survived, he can at least tell us who he blocked.

The person he blocked doesn't not necessarily prove they're town, they could be a part of either of the scum factions.

We should not simply trust this person, but I guess it does limit possibilities.

 

 

I have no reading on Lyner or Xx Karl xX.

I hope in this day we can hear more from them.

We lost one good scum hunter who I believe was most likely townie, Kaziocore.

The person that was blocked cannot be the killing goon, the SK or the vig, nor can he be the RB himself. Therefore that person is more likely town than anyone else. Unfortunately we can only trust that assessment as far as we trust Rafay and that's where I still have a bit of a problem to be honest.

 

Anyway, I think Rafay should tell us who he blocked without delay. We need that info to properly get the Day 2 discussion going.

So Rafay didn't get killed.  What does that tell us?

 

I'm willing to go with the assumption that he's telling the truth for now.

And whomever he blocked has a good chance of being a townie (non-killing goon being the one exception).

 

The interesting twist is that with 4 players gone, we don't know if 3 of them were scum or not.

 

 

With the assumption that Rafay is honest, then the mafias and sk were afraid they might lynch the same person(rafay) so neither lynched him

 

And yeah agreed we need the infos before we can start the discussion

With the assumption that Rafay is honest, then the mafias and sk were afraid they might lynch the same person(rafay) so neither lynched him

 

And yeah agreed we need the infos before we can start the discussion

 

 

So Rafay didn't get killed.  What does that tell us?

 

I'm willing to go with the assumption that he's telling the truth for now.

And whomever he blocked has a good chance of being a townie (non-killing goon being the one exception).

 

The interesting twist is that with 4 players gone, we don't know if 3 of them were scum or not.

 

This is not correct. We know 3 kills were performed in the night. Which means all kills went through and neither the Vig nor the SK got killed (as they were able to send in their kills). There is a probability that one of the scum got killed but I wont bet anything on that. I would say 3 town aligned roles were killed..we dont know if we lost any more power roles.

 

Also we dont actually have to wait for Rafay to start discussion. I see a lot of interesting info from the night kills anyway. For example, why was Martino killed? Why didnt the Vig hit kevinH when he was the second most popular person voted as scum? Why was RoT targetted? Did the scum target him or the SK or the vig? If we start looking for answers to these questions I think we will be able to start seeing patterns. I will post more detailed thoughts on these later on.

 

But for now, I would say we are 4 townies down. So instead of 9 vs 3 we are down to 5 vs 3. We need to hit gold on the lynch this day or we are in a really bad position.

The vig probably didn't hit KevinH because he knew we had flawed reasons for voting, hence a townie got lynched.

If I was vig I sure as hell would not back that voting.

RoT was not lynched for his voting anyway.

If I had to guess Kaziocore was the main one killed for a reason other than a random choice and I don't think it was the vig.

Which perhaps would mean that the vig and 1 scum faction targetted RoT and Martino.

If I was to guess the vig targetted RoT because he wasn't all that vocal.

No Imran, you are incorrect. There is no rule that says that the vig's kill wouldn't go through if the vig got killed himself.

If the SK had been targeted we wouldn't have 3 missing persons due to his one-shot NK immunity. Therefore the SK must still be alive and his NK immunity must still be intact. Other than that though, nothing is for sure about the 3 missing persons. We could now be anywhere between 5 vs 3 and 7 vs the SK and we may have lost anything between none or all three of our power roles.

I had a large town read on Kazio and I can't imagine the vig having killed him so I think the vig killed either Martino or RoT. I would guess Martino as given Martino's vote for KevinH and his exhaustive plea to not force Rafay to claim, knowing Martino's alignment would shed some light on them as well. RoT on the other hand had not posted much and he wasn't even voting at the end of the day.

The vig probably didn't hit KevinH because he knew we had flawed reasons for voting, hence a townie got lynched.

There were (and are) excellent reasons to vote for KevinH. It is interesting to see for instance that both Martino and killgor, the latter a known townie, were voting KevinH at the end of the day and are now dead.

 

@Lyner

Since your vote was decisive in lynching killgor rather than KevinH... what are your thoughts about KevinH exactly? Your motivation for that vote was "Feel the pressure a bit." Pretty lame wouldn't you say?

No Imran, you are incorrect. There is no rule that says that the vig's kill wouldn't go through if the vig got killed himself.

.

 

The rules dont state it, thats correct. But I think the standard procedure (in previous MAFIA games) is that if a role gets killed his actions that night will have no affect. Maybe the MOD can clarify this point.

 

Also good point that the SK didnt get targeted this night. If he did we would have seen 2 nks not 3.

 

I dont see the Vig hitting Martino..as he looked pretty townie to me. He either hit RoT because he was inactive or he hit Kazio because Rafay (the only probable confirmed townie) was voting for him. If its the 2nd case then it was not a good decision imo. Kazio looked townie to me too. But then again Kazio may have been scum.

 

So who did the SK/ scum target? Martino was pushing pretty hard for a kevinH lynch. If kevinH is scum, he may have NKed Martino to take out his biggest threat. On the other hand, the SK may have targeted Martino to throw suspicion on KevinH. The SK is in a unique position as he wants both the scum and the townies eliminated so it wouldnt matter for him if kevinH turned out to have been scum or townie.  So in a way kevinH may have been setup to be lynched on this day (either by SK or by scum => which would imply kevinH is not scum). Any case, who Rafay role blocked during the night may also shed some light on this situation.

Actually just re-read the rules and although its not too clear but I think its enough:

 

 

If a Cannibal night-kills another Cannibal, they take all of the bodies their target had, learning all the role/alignment information their target knew. This will include their target's night-kill target from that same night, if applicable.

 

So I guess night kills can be done even if the Cannibal himself is killed that night.

Since he had the deciding vote in killgor vs KevinH I decided to have a look at all of Lyner's posts so far. This is what I found:

 

#16: RV killgor.

#19: Fluff.

#48: Defending KevinH. Attacking inactives.

#92: Fluff about the vig. Attacking inactives.

#107: Fluff. Avoiding to say who he suspects, even when prompted to do so.

#109: Fluff.

#118: Vote Xarastier for being inactive.

#132: Fluff.

#192: Defending KevinH again. Attacking inactives. Does this by quoting Imran and adding the word seconded.

#256: Unvotes. Says he will be away for 3 days. Promises to give his opinions when he returns.

#286: Fluff.

#328: Fluff.

#346: Fluff.

#374: Fluff.

#380: Defending Rafay. Attacking inactives.

#401Vote killgor to pressure him thus saving KevinH.

#415: Fluff.

 

A couple of things to note:

- Most of Lyner's posts are fluff.

- Not once does Lyner express suspicion of anyone specific. He just attacks inactives.

- Lyner never really questions anyone.

- Lyner attacks those that 'stay under the radar' but seems to pretty much stay under the radar himself as well.

- Lyner never keeps his promise in #256 to give his opinion, posting 4 fluff posts instead.

- At the end of the day Lyner suddenly votes for VT killgor giving no good reason and thus saving KevinH.

 

Would a townie act like this? I think not.

 

Vote: Lyner

Sorry I was late guys.......RL!!!

 

Well now here's a problem.....Its either a brilliant strategy by the mafia or a blunder that they let me live. Anyway I wanna thank them......

 

As for the question whom I roleblocked, it was Nerau.

Correction. In #192 Lyner was defending Rafay rather than KevinH. That does not change the overall picture of his behavior though.

 

It still looks like a scum posting fluff and attacking inactives to appear active himself. Meanwhile he never specifically suspects or questions anyone or anything. And where he defends KevinH and Rafay he mainly does so by quoting others and agreeing with them, i.e. not by actually saying anything substantial himself.

 

The vig probably didn't hit KevinH because he knew we had flawed reasons for voting, hence a townie got lynched.

There were (and are) excellent reasons to vote for KevinH. It is interesting to see for instance that both Martino and killgor, the latter a known townie, were voting KevinH at the end of the day and are now dead.

 

I thought the first reasons were terrible when Kaziocore tried to defend them so I seriously don't think they're better now.

However KevinH could be scum as could others, the only logically reason I can find for voting KevinH is that he could be scum based on the scum %.

Nothing is clear with Kev.

 

1 of the 4 people voting KevinH were nightkilled, hardly remarkable and the town(not entirely KevinH's fault) killed Killgor.

I would not draw conclusions from that.

Sorry I was late guys.......RL!!!

 

Well now here's a problem.....Its either a brilliant strategy by the mafia or a blunder that they let me live. Anyway I wanna thank them......

 

As for the question whom I roleblocked, it was Nerau.

 

Did you have any suspicions of Nerau or was it a random choice to block him?