655 replies to this topic

[Commander Shepard]

@KevinH

Although you have cleared up a few minor things I'm still not convinced by most of your answers about your claim.

From my perspective there are two possibilities:
1) You are indeed the vig. In this case I consider it a bad play that you claimed. I can see how someone that advocates no lynch on a regular basis could make a bad play though so it doesn't necessarily mean that you are scum.

2) You are a scum and Martino was the vig. In this case, given that you almost got lynched yesterday, if you are the SK I think you made an smart play (as I explained before). If you are a goon I don't see that much benefit in it though.

I guess either option is possible and I'm treating them as equally likely. That means that in my assessment there is a 50% chance that you are scum, most likely the SK. Other players have a considerably lower chance to be scum. Hence, my scum read on you.

 

KevinH certainly went up on my radar as possible scum.

[Commander Shepard]

It's time for me to step forward and accept my fate.

I didn't want to do this in Day 1 as I felt there was valuable info I could get on 2 scum leads instead of 1.

2 scum leads would greatly help the town.

If I were able to have the two mafia goons player dead going into Day 3, I say it was worth it.

And I wanted to at least make it into Day 2, perhaps me doing what I did caused a chain of events that will 

lead to the town losing such as KevinH coming out as the vig if he even is the vig.

 

Maybe less people would have died during the night.

Maybe I could have guessed right who the other scum was and blocked them.

Maybe Killgor would still be alive, I don't think him still being alive would help him from being lynched though.

So I decided to wait till Day 2, just long enough so I could get better reads on each player during Day 2.

Kaziocore messed up my readings on Day 1 and I don't know for certain if he is town or scum yet.

If the player I know is scum is indeed a Mafia Goon then Kaziocore was likely townie, if not he could have been the mafia who did not kill anyone though.

Obviously if the player I know that is scum is indeed the SK then I feel I would have wasted my time.

I went on with the idea the maybe he is probably a mafia goon, as the odds are it was more likely.

And I felt there was a mafia goons vibe to it.

Even if he is the Sk which is not exactly my preferred outcome, I gathered information that benefited my view and experience.

 

 

Rafay is not the roleblocker, I am the roleblocker.

 

Perhaps I should have came forward earlier but I enjoyed the experience I felt I could possible get a read on the second scum if there is a second scum.

I assumed Rafay was a Mafia Goon and he had a partner, obviously it can not be proved he is the mafia goon until we lynch him.

He could be the SK, in which case my readings on other players would have been in vain.

 

I assumed he was the Mafia goons because I figured the SK would not claim a town power role as he probably 

would not even take the chance of losing if the real power role came forward.

There were plenty of people defending Rafay and there were other possible targets so it's not like he was under that much pressure.

There was an awful lot of people defending him not claiming a role.

I don't feel the Sk would have rushed like that, it would have been a last resort and that was not a last resort moment.

 

 

So anyway I have been trying to find the other scum that I assumed that was his partner based on the odds of him being Mafia goons and his behavior.

I rated all the players who had some sort of relationship with Rafay in day 1.

After rating them all, *** and Martino were the ones I felt were most likely to be that scum.

With Kaz and *** close behind.

But then Kaz made the post where he said because there was no counterclaim Rafay was town and such.

I felt that was unneeded so Kaz was pushed to the top of my suspects and earned my roleblock.

 

I didn't block Rafay because 

A)He knows the roleblocker knows he is lying and he would not be killing if he is the mafia goons.

 

B)I took a risk, I could have been killed during the night but assuming if Rafay was the SK it would not matter if I roleblocked him anyway as he has 1 night roleblock immunity and I was planning to come out on Day 2 anyway if we both survived the night.

 

However as I said earlier Kaz was probably town if Rafay is indeed a mafia goon.

Probably should talk about my relationship with Rafay.

I initially defended him against votes I felt were unjust and then I voted him later which made him claim to be important.

Lots of fluff later Euclid brought up the topic again and I helped to try and get answers, I however had no intention of 

voting to lynch Rafay even if he did not claim a specific role.

Obviously when he did claim my role and I had to rush my ass off from voting him as I would have the only one left voting him.

So I acted like nothing changed too much, just playing it cool and adding mystery as to who the roleblocker might be from Rafay's POV.

[Commander Shepard]

Two of my top suspects in Day 1 are still alive.

*** was at the highest suspect level along with the deceased Martino.

*** was at the next highest level along with the deceased Kaz until Kaz was instantly pushed to the top at the end of Day 1.

Everyone else aside from Rafay who was rated as scum were at the lowest level of suspicion for numerous reasons.

 

 

 

This is mostly concering Day 2.

 

I felt this Day would have been a good day to get more reads from possible scum.

Euclid came off with a good start and asked the Rafay the question as to who he roleblocked.

I didn't want to do something like that myself as I would like to question rafay more later on.

I didn't want Rafay to get the idea as to who exactly the roleblocker was.

 

Eventually Rafay claimed he voted to block Nerau.

This is an interesting development as Nerau could have been the vig or the dietician.

And he chose a person still alive, a SK would have likely chose a dead player.

There were eleven players going into the night.

Assuming Rafay is a mafia goons this would make 9 people that are left.

Which would have been a 22% of picking one of the town power roles left(not including my role).

 

Why didn't he just pick a dead person, he is part of the scum faction that killed one person.

It's a wonder he didn't pick that person.

If he said he roleblocked Kaz who I believe he killed, then I don't think anyone could have said anything against it in terms of insider info.

But maybe he didn't say he blocked the person his scum faction killed because the person was Kaz, and he had no real reason to block Kaz.

Saying he blocked Kaz probably would have made him look bad in front of the town as the town already distrusted his claim.

And if he said he block RoT then that is also a risk as the person who killed RoT would know Rafay was scum if they found 

RoT was indeed the vig, the SK(other scum) would know Rafay was lying for sure.

Whatever he picked would have made him dig the hole a bit deeper, but he picked Nerau.

Which is a risk in itself as if Rafay is a Mafia goon, assuming the vig and the dietician were still alive along with his Rafay's scum partner.

Then he would have a 33% of picking a town power role from the people still alive(not including my role).

 

There again the chances of RoT been the vig were small.

Rafay may have just picked a player still alive at random because he felt it would make the town see him as more legit.

Though I'd really have to wonder about the picking of the player he says he roleblocked is based on.

 

I tried to get more as to the reason for his suppose blocking of Nerau.

Rafay claimed it was her silence but many people were silent.

And that is all as he had nothing else to say.

[Commander Shepard]

However don't start voting Rafay just yet.

Assuming that he is a Mafia Goon and not the SK then we can discuss who might be his partner.

It is very likely his partner survived the night.

 

I made a list of my top suspects and I would like everyone to help discuss as to who might be Rafay's  partner based on their interaction between the various players so far.

I don't want to post my suspects just yet as that will put them under pressure and I feel is counter productive.

I would like opinions on the various players and their relationships with Rafay.

Everything helps and I may have overlooked something.

[Rafay]

Well well a late counter-claim. Nice try Shep but I think you're timing is really off although the text is large. BTW who did you block my friend.

 

And what kind of strategy is that Kevin voting after me. Are you trying to play it safe....or something else...??? 

[Commander Shepard]

If you read my post you would know who I blocked and why I blocked them.

This counter claim is a good timing I feel.

Even if I did counter claim in Day 1 both us would have probably been given immunity from lynching and I would be dead.

Me being dead does not necessary prove you're scum though.

 

I assume you saw what you wanted to see and didn't bother reading anything else which why you asked me a pointless question.

[Commander Shepard]

And to repeat my initial question, what made Nerau's silence stick out more than the others?

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Finally a role claim that actually makes some sense. On my phone now, will post more on this later.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

First of all, we can't be 100% sure that Shepard is telling the truth. I'm inclined to believe him though, as I'll explain below.

There are 3 scenarios:

1) Rafay is the RB and Shepard is a lying scum.
This scenario is extremely unlikely IMO and should therefore be discarded as unrealistic. Shepard would surely be exposed when we flip Rafay, which is exactly what we might do as a result of his false counter claim. He'd be sacrificing himself just to get us to lynch the RB or an opposing scum (as Shepard wouldn't know for sure which of those Rafay is). Such a sacrifice is not gonna help his scum faction win the game, on the contrary. Other than that I don't see any scum motivation for Shepard to claim as he did under this scenario. When he claimed there was no one pushing for his lynch nor were many players suspicions of him. It would have been much better for him to stay under the radar under this scenario.

2) Rafay and Shepard are lying scum of opposing factions.
Rafay screwed up Day 1 with his a false soft claim and was forced to really claim. He claimed RB as that was the least likely to get him NKd or counter claimed. Shepard then NKd the real RB. As a result Shepard now knows that Rafay is a lying scum of the other faction. Shepard then falsely counter claims. As Rafay would be lynched and flip scum Shepard's own credibility would get a huge boost and he would not be at risk of a further counter claim, not a legitimate one anyway. That's a pretty good play for a scum: lynch a scum from the other faction while at the same time boosting your own town cred.

Although this scenario is certainly possible, I'd still say it is unlikely as it requires that Shepard has NKd the real RB which is only a 1 in 10 shot. Shepards claim to have blocked Kaz fits well with this scenario though as even if Kazio was a PR, since he is dead, he can't refute Shepard's block claim.

3) Shepard is the RB and Rafay is a lying scum.
Again, Rafay screwed up Day 1 with his a false soft claim and was forced to really claim. He claimed RB as that was the least likely to get him NKd or counter claimed. Shepard now faced a dilemma: counter claim or not. Counter claiming would most likely have gotten Shepard NKd and what then would he have to show for it? We would probably have lynched a scum in Rafay, which isn't as great a result as you might think since at the time it looked as though Rafay was a dead man anyway. If Rafay is the SK a counter claim would have spared us one NK, but since Shepard only knew Rafay was scum, him being the SK was only a 1 in 3 chance. Not counter claiming carried the risk that Shepard himself would be NKd in which case he would never be able to tell us that Rafay was scum. On the other hand by not claiming Shepard provided us with a chance to see the interactions with Rafay and also with a better chance to block someon again in night 2. In short, from a town perspective a case could be made for either counter claiming or not counter claiming. Obviously Shepard preferred the latter. Also, under this scenario it makes sense that Shepard let Day 2 run along for a while before counter claiming as that provides us with further information about how others interact with Rafay, and also forced Rafay to false claim his night block.

Conclusion
Since scenario 1 is extremely unlikely and Rafay is scum in both other scenarios I think that it is pretty clear now that Rafay is scum. I already explained all that is fishy about his claim on Day 1 and will not repeat it here. He gained some credibility with me today because there was no counter claim. Now that there is though, I really see no reason to consider his claim even the least bit credible. I'm telling you. Rafay is almost certainly scum. As to Shepard, I'm firmly leaning town on him but the possibility that he is a scum that killed the real RB should not be completely discarded.

Now, does that mean that we should lynch Rafay today? We don't know if he is a goon or the SK. Lynching a goon would be good, but lynching the SK would certainly be better. It's just a hunch, but personally I think he might be the SK and that's why I'll vote him for now. I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts about Rafay goon versus Rafay SK though. If we have another likely SK candidate I'd certainly consider it. Shepard seems to suggest that he has more to tell. I'm very curious as to what that is.

Unvote: Lyner
Vote: Rafay

[Euclid of Alexandria]

By the way, we should not just discuss the lynch today, but also KevinH's NK. I think we should lynch Rafay and KevinH should NK Lyner.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I had a look at the Day 1 discussion about Rafay's soft claim. I guess some of it is a matter of interpretation and also I read quite quickly, so if you think something is off, I'll happily adjust my view. For now, as I read it, I found the following:

 

Believing the soft claim:

Yes:           Martino, Kazio, Lyner, killgor, Imran, reign of terror

Neutral:     Shepard, (Xarastier)

No:            KevinH, Nerau, Euclid

 

Demanding a proper claim:
Anti:           Martino

Neutral:     Lyner, killgor, Imran, reign of terror, (Xarastier)

Pro:           KevinH, Nerau, Euclid, Shepard, Kazio
 

Green is confirmed town, strike through is dead, parentheses is inactive.

 

Kazio believed the soft claim but still pushed for Rafay to claim properly. The latter is the more telling of a pro or anti Rafay stance IMO. Taking other events on Day 1 into consideration as well I'd qualify Kazio as anti Rafay.

 

As none of neutrals about demanding a proper claim were putting any pressure on Rafay with their vote I would count them more towards pro than anti Rafay. Especially since that also aligns well with their believe in the soft claim (except for the inactive Xarastier who is neutral on both issues).

 

Assuming Rafay is a goon... it could be argued that his scum buddy would try to distance himself, but I think the goons would seriously dislike getting one of them lynched Day 1. As Rafay was in real danger and the only way to avoid it was to both get people off his wagon and prevent a forced claim, I'd expect his buddy to step up in this case, at least to some extent. Especially since he could do so while hiding amongst a few others that were also defending Rafay.

 

As far as the above can be considered a partner tell it would suggest that Rafay's buddy (if he has one at all) is amongst Lyner, Imran and reign of terror. In light of the other evidence I presented that Lyner is scum I would guess it to be Lyner.

 

Tbh though, I still think there's a decent chance that Rafay is the SK.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@KevinH

 

Would you be willing to subject your NK to a vote? I think that would really help us draw out some information from everyone. Also, I'd be happy to keep track of the votes and post a NK vote count ever so often.

[KevinH]

@KevinH

 

Would you be willing to subject your NK to a vote? I think that would really help us draw out some information from everyone. Also, I'd be happy to keep track of the votes and post a NK vote count ever so often.

 

I would like to see a vote about whom I should night-kill but I'm not sure I want to be bound by it.  I also want to withdraw my idea about posting whom I will kill just before deadline.

 

If the scum see that I'm killing someone other than them, they will be inclined to choose a different target and then we stand a greater chance of losing more townies. 

If I happen to target a townie, it would be best if they targeted the same townie and then we'd only lose one.

 

They may both want me dead but both factions may hope the other kills me.

[Commander Shepard]

It is only applicable if Rafay is a mafia goons.

This just about the two people from your view.

 

Lyner was initially defensive of Rafay, and Lyner not voting also raised my suspicion.

But then after that most of his posts have doubts over Rafay's claim of being the roleblocker, more or less thinking Rafay is scum.

Lyner is certainly suspicious, but because I have a biased view since Lyner is posting so obviously that we should not trust Rafay I'm unsure.

It is hard to make a call wherever he is distancing himself from Rafay or if it is something else.

If they were the Mafia Goons then you can bet they would be cautious of siding together as the odds are the roleblocker was still alive.

 

 

Imran: was somewhat defensive of Rafay and he did try(somewhat) to encourage the vote on killgor and me instead of Rafay in Day 1.

He made a post suggesting Rafay is probably a townie and he suggests Rafay is not scum because he believes he would picked a dead person to block instead of a living one.

And then later said Rafay was a confirmed townie for him for the previous reasons.

Imran could be attempting to validate Rafay's claim while also taking a cautious approach in his relationship with Rafay.

He doesn't want to come to strongly to suggest Rafay is townie as, if he was a mafia goon along with Rafay then they would also know there was a good chance the roleblocker was still alive.

 

 

Karl and the guy before him are probably a VT if you ask me.

I don't have anything to say about them

 

However it is always possibly that the potential scum partner of Rafay's never defended Rafay in anyway.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

We still have a few days to go. We should not be bandwagoning votes on specific people until we have had more posts by the lurkers. The following have been very quite:
 
RoT, Nerau, Xarastier (i notice he will be replaced, lets wait for his replacement before ending this day). Pressure should be put on these people in the form of votes..

 
Seconded

 
This was Day 1 when a wagon on Rafay was first forming, before he soft claimed. Lyner agrees with Imran that we should wagon him at that point.

 

I'm waiting for rafay's response, but oh well here we go:
I'm still not convinced that rafay is a scum, he attracted too much suspicion into himself, and it's still day one  
And there is the possibility that it was a bad play and now he's stuck. I'm uncomfortable with the fact that we only suspect rafay, nobody else.
I think that's all for now, I'll still gunning for the ones that try to stay under the radar

 
This was Day 1 when Rafay's soft claim was being discussed. See the parts I've bolded. Clearly Lyner is defending Rafay here.

 

With the assumption that Rafay is honest, then the mafias and sk were afraid they might lynch the same person(rafay) so neither lynched him
 
And yeah agreed we need the infos before we can start the discussion

 
This was when Day 2 had just begon. Again, see bolded part, looks like Lyner is defending Rafay. Less obviously so then before though.
 

Now that we know Rafay blocked Nerau, we can assume he's a townie, now that leaves us with:
Nerau: neutral, can't get any readings
KevinH: might be a townie
Rafay: not enough information, might be scum
Commander Shepard: probably townie if this is his first time
Lyner: cool townie
Imran Ehsan: might be a townie
Euclid of Alexandria: might be a townie
Xx Karl xX: See what I was talking about?
 
 
Each townies have their own roles, so I hope we can cooperate
Also I'd like hear everyone's opinions of everyone, what do you think of their allegiances?

 
This was Day 2 just after I had made my case against Lyner. See bolded parts. On the one hand Lyner says that "we know Rafay blocked Nerau" thus suggesting Rafay is telling the truth. On the other hand he says Rafay might be scum. Does not compute really. However I'd say that at a point were most are reading Rafay as town due to lack of CC, i.e. Rafay is no longer in dnager, out of nowhere Lyner has some suspicion against him all of a sudden.
 
 

That is the problem, I haven't seen any suspicious behaviour except rafay(and there's meta personality to consider, though I won't count on it)
And yes I'm open to any possibilities, I forgot to say "assuming rafay is honest", my bad there :|

 
Again the contradiction of assuming Rafay to be honest and saying he is suspicious.
 
 

I'm still not convinced that rafay is a scum, he attracted too much suspicion into himself. though I agree that he is more suspicious than the rests, that's all

This is in response to my questioning Lyner about his sudden chance of mind about Rafay. Again kind of contradicting himself (see bolded parts).

 

 

It looks to me as though Lyner was defending Rafay when Rafay needed help and then gradually tried to distance himself from Rafay when Rafay was no longer in danger. That's exactly the kind of behavior I'd expect from a scum buddy.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

EBWODB: Lyner agrees with Imran that we should *not* wagon him at that point.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@KevinH

If you're not binding yourself to it then it is a discussion rather than a vote. I guess the answer to my question is: No, you are not willing to subject your NK to a vote.

Withdrawing your idea to post your NK... hmm.

[KevinH]

Let me start by saying I love this game.

I love Mafia in general and this Donner Party game in particular.

 

My mind keeps fluctuating about whom to believe.

 

At the core, it's Rafay vs Commander Shepard.

 

Yesterday I suspected Rafay the most, with Martino as his scum buddy.

He survived the night which is probably a bit of evidence supporting the scum theory but easily explained away.

Then I don't see any evidence of a counter-claim and decide to trust him.

I'm also in a dilemma because I don't see anybody else as being particularly scummy.

 

Then comes the counter-claim by Commander Shepard, which should give me a reason to put Rafay back at the top of my list.

 

However, there's this little nagging feeling that it's all too easy.

 

I need to post an alternative possibility.  Like I said, it's Rafay vs Commander Shepard.

Remember that mafia have daytalk.  Is Commander Shepard talking to Euclid of Alexandria?

 

1) I role-claim as the Vigilante.

2) Commander Shepard implies that I'm lying

3) Euclid of Alexandria implies that I'm lying.

 

Is this testing the waters to see if they can drum up support and lynch me?

 

4) Lyner believes me.

5) Imran Ehsan believes me.

 

OK, not much traction for the lynch on me.

 

6) Commander Shepard counter-claims.

7) Euclid of Alexandria supports the counter-claim.

 

They both made eloquent and convincing posts, and I may believe them in the end, but I think it takes a little more scrutiny.

 

Maybe, just maybe, their plan goes like this:

 

Town lynches Rafay, roleblocker is gone, 7 players left.

3 kills in the night, 4 players left.

Town lynches Commander Shepard, 3 players left.

2 kills in the night, Euclid survives and the mafia wins.

 

Maybe, just maybe, they thought we wouldn't discover their dastardly plan and chose to take the calculated risk.

 

Is this any less likely than their accusations that I killed the Vigilante and assumed his identity?

 

I don't know if I believe it myself, but that nagging feeling is there.

 

I love this game!

 

 

 

[KevinH]

We should not be bandwagoning votes on specific people until we have had more posts by the lurkers. ... Pressure should be put on these people in the form of votes..

Seconded

I'm still not convinced that rafay is a scum ... I'm uncomfortable with the fact that we only suspect rafay, nobody else.

With the assumption that Rafay is honest ...

 

Now that we know Rafay blocked Nerau, we can assume he's a townie

... I haven't seen any suspicious behaviour except rafay ... I forgot to say "assuming rafay is honest"

 

I'm still not convinced that rafay is a scum ... he is more suspicious than the rests

 

 

In context, I see nothing wrong with any of these quotes. I could have said any of them myself!

[KevinH]

@KevinH

If you're not binding yourself to it then it is a discussion rather than a vote. I guess the answer to my question is: No, you are not willing to subject your NK to a vote.

Withdrawing your idea to post your NK... hmm.

 

If my kill is known to the scum, they won't waste their kill by targeting the same player.

Are you saying you want to know who my kill is? Hmm.