655 replies to this topic

[KevinH]

It keeps getting better and better.

 

Here's the way I see things.

The scum would love to have 3 dead players tonight.

The scum would love to know who I'm going to kill so they can kill somebody else.

So when I get told who I should night-kill, my spidey-sense begins to tingle.

 

Both Commander Shepard and Euclid of Alexandria have made well-written posts, with convincing arguments.

However, it could all be lies.

 

It started with Rafay vs Shepard.

Now add Euclid vs Lyner.

 

The answer at first seems obvious to me.  We lynch the known scum, Lyner.  Why didn't Euclid suggest that?  He posted that Rafay is also a confirmed scum but he doesn't really know that for sure. 

 

If Rafay and Shepard both claim to be the Roleblocker, why not let them both live and the real one can use his ability in the night.  We can sort out their differences later.  Lynch the known scum and maybe we'll get the Serial Killer and prevent a kill in the night.  Seems obvious.

 

But Euclid is not a bit slow in figuring things out.  He knew that given the scenario as presented, we would lynch Lyner.  What's his motive?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chaplain of death]

Vote count 2.2

 

 

 

Nerau (0) - 

KevinH (0) - 

Rafay (2) - Euclid of Alexandria, Imran Ehsan,

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (0) - 

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (1) - KevinH,

 

Not Voting - Nerau, Rafay, Commander Shepard, Lyner, Xx Karl xX

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Rafay is the current wagon leader at L-3.

Deadline is Saturday, May 25th, 2013 @ 11:00 PST

[KevinH]

A hypothetical conversation from the mafia daytalk thread:

 

Commander Shepard: They're on to us.  It's a 50-50 chance that I'll get lynched today.  And even if they lynch Rafay, I'm dead soon thereafter with you next in line.

 

Euclid of Alexandria: It's a good thing we killed the Dietician last night.  I can divert attention away from the Roleblocker debate by claiming to be the Dietician and fingering Lyner.  They'll lynch him and then me, but you'll still stand a chance since your counterclaim to Rafay was very convincing.

 

Commander Shepard: Won't that be too obvious?

 

Euclid of Alexandria: I'll use reverse psychology by suggesting Rafay but they'll eventually figure out that Lyner is the best choice.

[Nerau]

I am giving notice i will most likely not be posting until sunday due to lack of forum access 

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I would like to see a vote about whom I should night-kill but I'm not sure I want to be bound by it.

So when I get told who I should night-kill, my spidey-sense begins to tingle.

Does not compute. I guess it's hard though to keep your story straight when you're scum.

 

The answer at first seems obvious to me. We lynch the known scum, Lyner. Why didn't Euclid suggest that? He posted that Rafay is also a confirmed scum but he doesn't really know that for sure.

Yes, I do really know for sure that Rafay is scum:
- If Shepard is telling the truth then Rafay must be scum.
- If Shepard is lying then he must have killed the real RB so Rafay must be scum.
In either case Rafay is scum. No doubt about it.

The line of reasoning with Lyner is quite similar:
- If KevinH is telling the truth then Lyner can't be the vig so he must be scum.
- If KevinH is lying then he must have killed the real vig so Lyner must be scum.
In either case Lyner is scum. No doubt about it.

With two confirmed scum we should go for the SK. I think Lyner is probably a goon so Rafay is more likely the SK. Also, although from me Lyner is confirmed scum, for anyone else it depends on how much faith they put in my claim. Rafay is the only scum that is confirmed for the entire town.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@KevinH

If I were scum, would I claim dietician to cast suspicion on Lyner and then go on to push for a lynch (Rafay) that was likely going to happen anyway? It wouldn't make sense because:
- Lyner had already attracted quite a lot of suspicion
- Noone suspected me except you and the confirmed scum Rafay
- I put a target on myself for the other scum faction

[Lyner]

Now you've done it, Euclid

 

 

After pondering a bit I thought of 2 hypotheses, he is either a vanilla townie or a very confident mafia goon:

1. Good guy Euclid. Like I said, I think you've been pro-town since the first day, but only as a vanilla. Now maybe you're already convinced and fixed that me and Rafay(and probably Kevin) are the scums, and to save the only power role that hasn't been claimed(dietician) you lied. The merit: The hidden true dietician might escape getting NK-ed and give some useful insights in day 3, we still win even if you get lynched, after all. It also stimulates people to spill more informations so we can read them. If this theory is true then it is bad of me for revealing it, but it's too bad because I'm a townie and we can get into worse situation if another townie get lynched. Pretty wild idea I know, still, a possibility.

 

2. Mafia goon Euclid. You're getting more and more suspicious since Kevin started a possibility that you're a scum. Here we go: You have an advantage for being a newcomer so we can't read if you're trying to misdirect us(you've been trying to lead us since the first day) or being a good townie. You suspected me as scum with reason: too much fluff, sounds like someone which we all agree as a pro-townie #378. And #503 is weird, why did you do that if you decided(or perhaps changed mind) to roleclaim? Maybe you're having a meeting at the daytalk between mafia goons? Maybe you think that you already gained townies' trusts and you believe you can create a bandwagon, or maybe you want to see me claiming something so your friend can target me(or not-me if I claim vanilla) at night?

 

Possible case:

At first you thought you can direct the suspicion to me without role-claiming, then when Kevin started his hypotheses you are getting desperate then claimed you're the dietician. There are 2 reasons:

1. You killed the dietician so you can get away without anyone denying your claim.

2. You want to detect the real dietician and NK him, even by sacrificing yourself for the sake of your undetected partner.

 

Regarding partner, if you went on with the second reason then Shephard is probably a RB, because he showed up too much, and the next suspicious one on my list is Nerau, this is small details but why weren't you include Nerau when asking for opinions? he said your vote is justified, not true. He didn't say he support it and he haven't given his opinion of the current condition, and if he is your partner good for you, he can stay out of the radar If we went with the first reason then the Euclid-Shephard mafia theory sounds good

 

 

 

I don't know about Shephard or Rafay, but what I know is you are not the SK, and probably not the dietician either

What do you guys think?

[Lyner]

@KevinH

If I were scum, would I claim dietician to cast suspicion on Lyner and then go on to push for a lynch (Rafay) that was likely going to happen anyway? It wouldn't make sense because:
- Lyner had already attracted quite a lot of suspicion
- Noone suspected me except you and the confirmed scum Rafay
- I put a target on myself for the other scum faction

 

Oh sweet, pretty consistent with my current hypotheses

[Commander Shepard]

Damn KevinH, you're making me point out what you did.

Before I claimed

 

Quote from KevinH

 

Also, right before the deadline, I will post whom I intend to target.  Then if I'm night-killed, you'll know who pulled the trigger in one of the other deaths.

 

 

First post from KevinH after I claimed

 

I would like to see a vote about whom I should night-kill but I'm not sure I want to be bound by it.  I also want to withdraw my idea about posting whom I will kill just before deadline.

 

 

 

What does this mean?

Well let's say KevinH did kill the Vig and lets say Rafay is indeed the SK which he could well be.

Where would that leave KevinH after I claimed? On a tight edge, that's where.

If only one person dies tonight we will know it is highly likely there is only one faction capable of killing left.

If KevinH was a mafia goon then he backed himself into a corner of death because the SK will probably be lynched in his mind.

Two people dying or the SK blocking someone would not happen now in that situation, which could be problematic for KevinH.

Which could be why KevinH changed his mind when I claimed.

[Commander Shepard]

However I think there is a good chance KevinH is the vig and telling the truth.

It's just the situation looks badly on him much how the Rafay situation looks a bit bad on Nerau.

I am solely out to lynch Rafay as I think this is the make or break point for the town.

[Commander Shepard]

The answer at first seems obvious to me. We lynch the known scum, Lyner. Why didn't Euclid suggest that? He posted that Rafay is also a confirmed scum but he doesn't really know that for sure.

Yes, I do really know for sure that Rafay is scum:
- If Shepard is telling the truth then Rafay must be scum.
- If Shepard is lying then he must have killed the real RB so Rafay must be scum.
In either case Rafay is scum. No doubt about it.

 

I know Rafay isn't that credible here but the 3rd possible option does exist.

It would be a bold move from me to do though, perhaps the 3rd option is unrealistic for scum to do.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Now you've done it, Euclid
 
 
After pondering a bit I thought of 2 hypotheses, he is either a vanilla townie or a very confident mafia goon:
1. Good guy Euclid. Like I said, I think you've been pro-town since the first day, but only as a vanilla. Now maybe you're already convinced and fixed that me and Rafay(and probably Kevin) are the scums, and to save the only power role that hasn't been claimed(dietician) you lied. The merit: The hidden true dietician might escape getting NK-ed and give some useful insights in day 3, we still win even if you get lynched, after all. It also stimulates people to spill more informations so we can read them. If this theory is true then it is bad of me for revealing it, but it's too bad because I'm a townie and we can get into worse situation if another townie get lynched. Pretty wild idea I know, still, a possibility.

This theory is crazy. A vanilla townie couldn't even know whether the dietician is still alive or not unless he is himself the dietician. Also, vanilla townies don't lie.
 

2. Mafia goon Euclid. You're getting more and more suspicious since Kevin started a possibility that you're a scum.

KevinH's theory of me and Shepard day talking doesn't make sense. I already explained why. I'm not surprised that he keeps pusing it though, nor that Rafay joined him in that, and now you as well. It just shows that the scum are getting desperate.
 

Here we go: You have an advantage for being a newcomer so we can't read if you're trying to misdirect us(you've been trying to lead us since the first day) or being a good townie.

I'm easier to read than you are. The reason is that I actually post stuff that can be read. You on the other hand just posted fluff mostly. Although since I started my case on you that has changed. You now post lies instead.
 

You suspected me as scum with reason: too much fluff, sounds like someone which we all agree as a pro-townie #378.

Yes, Kazio had already picked up on you posting fluff. What's your point? Also, we didn't all agree that Kazio was pro-town. Day 1 Kazio definitely caught his share of suspicion and even had a small wagon on him. Furthermore, I made a whole case against you. Your fluff posting was merely one piece of the of evidence.
 

And #503 is weird, why did you do that if you decided(or perhaps changed mind) to roleclaim?

I did that because Rafay and Imran had yet to respond to my case against you and I wanted them to do so before I claimed. I added the part about dropping your case to give them an incentive to read you as town in case they were your buddy (rather than distancing themselves). As it turned out Rafay defended you and Imran did not, which might be an indication that Rafay is your buddy.
 

Maybe you're having a meeting at the daytalk between mafia goons? Maybe you think that you already gained townies' trusts and you believe you can create a bandwagon,

I'm still pushing for a Rafay lynch who was likely to be lynched whether I claimed or not. So what bandwagon are you talking about that I would be trying to create?
 

or maybe you want to see me claiming something so your friend can target me(or not-me if I claim vanilla) at night?

Claim whatever you want. I don't care really. Unless you claim vig or scum I know that you must be lying. And if you claim vig then you or KevinH are lying (or both) and in that case KevinH's claim would still be more credible than yours.
 

Possible case:
At first you thought you can direct the suspicion to me without role-claiming, then when Kevin started his hypotheses you are getting desperate then claimed you're the dietician. There are 2 reasons:
1. You killed the dietician so you can get away without anyone denying your claim.
2. You want to detect the real dietician and NK him, even by sacrificing yourself for the sake of your undetected partner.
 
Regarding partner, if you went on with the second reason then Shephard is probably a RB, because he showed up too much, and the next suspicious one on my list is Nerau, this is small details but why weren't you include Nerau when asking for opinions? he said your vote is justified, not true. He didn't say he support it and he haven't given his opinion of the current condition, and if he is your partner good for you, he can stay out of the radar If we went with the first reason then the Euclid-Shephard mafia theory sounds good
 
 
 
I don't know about Shephard or Rafay, but what I know is you are not the SK, and probably not the dietician either
What do you guys think?

Shepard, Rafay, Nerau, me... you sure have a lot of scum reads all of a sudden. Especially since you had almost none before, only Rafay really, and even him only since Day 2. I guess you've become desperate since my claim outed you as scum and have now resorted to the only play you have left: wildly throwing around suspicions.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@Shepard

The third option, i.e. where you lied and Rafay told the truth, is highly unlikely as it would mean that you as scum would have painted a huge target on yourself for the sole benefit of (possibly) getting the real RB killed and then as Rafay flipped RB everyone would know for sure that you are scum.

A much better play for you as scum would be to just stay under the radar, try to get us to lynch a townie and take care of Rafay during the night.

Therefore, if you are scum, you would only claim as you did if you had NKd the real RB, in which case Rafay is still lying.

I said it before. Rafay is scum. No doubt about it.

[Imran Ehsan]

Euclid's RC sounds very convenient. Interesting that he claims to have investigated Lyner and found him scum right when townies are debating on a short list of suspects. Anycase, I am not convinced about his RC yet. I will need to look through his Day 1 posts and see if they fit in with his posts or contradict.

 

@CS - You havent mentioned wether you think Euclid is really the Dietician or not? What do you think?

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Euclid's RC sounds very convenient.

It does sound convenient. The reason is that it will likely win us the game.

Interesting that he claims to have investigated Lyner and found him scum right when townies are debating on a short list of suspects.

Perfect timing I'd say.

Anycase, I am not convinced about his RC yet. I will need to look through his Day 1 posts and see if they fit in with his posts or contradict.

My play has been pretty much town all around I believe. I did try to hide my PR of course. I targeted KevinH early on and then later Rafay, who since has become a confirmed scum. I'm interested to see your thoughts on my Day 1 posts though.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

this is small details but why weren't you include Nerau when asking for opinions? he said your vote is justified, not true. He didn't say he support it and he haven't given his opinion of the current condition, and if he is your partner good for you, he can stay out of the radar If we went with the first reason then the Euclid-Shephard mafia theory sounds good

 

The part that I've bolded is just another lie.

 

I didn't include Nerau because he had already responded. I asked him in #449 and in #468 he responded saying that my vote on you was justified and, as I read it anyway, he also said there that you posted BS.

 

[Commander Shepard]

Whatever Euclids role, I know sure and have known for some time he is definitely not partners with Rafay.

He was attacking Rafay way too much in Day 1 for me to consider him scum partners with Rafay.

Which would imply if he is lying then he would be the other scum faction that is not Rafay's scum faction.

I do consider the possibility of him being scum.

However such would imply that the Dietician is indeed dead.

We can not say for sure if the Dietician is dead or not.

 

It is similar to KevinH's claim except Euclid's claim has more depth to it.

I felt KevinH's claim came out of nowhere whereas you could see why Eulcid would suspect Lyner if he was the dietician.

And since Euclid went after Lyner from almost the get go of this Day I think adds points as to why he could indeed be the dietician.

I see no particularly other reason to go after Lyner other than the dietician investigating him during the night for justified reasons.

Initially I thought Lyner was the dietician because of his sudden change of tune towards Rafay.

I felt he investigated either me or Rafay but didn't want to spell it out.

However I think I gave up on that lead since he didn't vote for Rafay.

 

 

I think KevinH and Euclid both have good claims but not fully provable claims, perhaps Euclid's a bit more as I get a better judgement on him.

[Commander Shepard]

I did say earlier it would be awful if the vig, dietician and the roleblocker were all known on Day 2.

I don't think it is awful right now, but I am slightly worried.

[KevinH]

Yes, I do really know for sure that Rafay is scum:
- If Shepard is telling the truth then Rafay must be scum.
- If Shepard is lying then he must have killed the real RB so Rafay must be scum.
In either case Rafay is scum. No doubt about it.

 

"If Shepard is lying then he must have killed the real RB"
Isn't it possible that Rafay is the Roleblocker and Shepard is lying?

It might be unlikely, but it is not impossible.

On the other hand, if Lyner is a Cannibal, then he must be scum.
(Assuming one believes that I'm the Vigilante)

[KevinH]

The "sure things" really aren't so sure.

 

Why ought to consider what we will learn from a lynch.

 

If we lynch Rafay and he's scum, we can trust Commander Shepard as the Roleblocker.

If we lynch Rafay and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Commander Shepard is scum.

 

If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's scum, we can trust Rafay as the Roleblocker.

If we lynch Commander Shepard and he's the Roleblocker, we lose the Roleblocker but know that Rafay is scum.

 

If we lynch Lyner and he's scum, we can trust Euclid of Alexandria as the Dietician (or he's a scum that luckily picked another scum)

If we lynch Lyner and he's townie, we lose a vanilla townie and know that Euclid of Alexandria is scum.

 

I'd rather lose a vanilla townie than a roleblocker if we're wrong.