655 replies to this topic

[KevinH]

Euclid of Alexandria, on 14 May 2013 - 16:15, said:

Voting helps to get the discussion going. Voting helps the town to get reads on you. Voting provokes reactions and scum slips.

 

Vote: Xx Karl xX

 

Until Rafay votes, then I'll switch if necessary.

[Commander Shepard]

I'd suggest you don't start voting on a wagon until I make a post tomorrow.

It's late and I would like to see more development before I force something.

[KevinH]

Euclid of Alexandria, on 14 May 2013 - 22:06, said:

@KevinH: No you didn't answer all the questions. Why did you not claim before Rafay had announced his block?

Euclid of Alexandria, on 14 May 2013 - 10:45, said:

And there's another thing, KevinH, why did you wait with your claim until after Rafay had disclosed his Nerau block? If you are the SK I can see the reason. You'd have one-shot RB immunity and wouldn't know if Rafay had blocked you or not as your night kill would have succeeded in either case. You would therefore have risked getting caught if you claimed before Rafay disclosed his block. If you are the vig you would not have that concern and you have just as well claimed before Rafay disclosed his Nerau block.

I wasn't waiting until after Rafay announced his block. I was thinking about making the claim for all the reasons that I gave and finally got some time to make a longer post. So I did.

Why have Rafay and Nerau each only made 2 posts during Day 2? Players post when they get a chance.

To be honest, I didn't even consider that the Serial Killer would want to wait until after the block was known. When you're a townie, you think like a townie.

[Chaplain of death]

Karl is inactive and has asked for a replacement, I'm working on it but am not having much luck. 

[Chaplain of death]

Vote count 2.1

 

 

Quote

 

 

Nerau (0) - 

KevinH (0) - 

Rafay (0) - 

Commander Shepard (0) -

Lyner (1) - Euclid of Alexandria,

Imran Ehsan (0) -

Euclid of Alexandria (0) - 

Xx Karl xX (1) - KevinH,

 

Not Voting - Nerau, Rafay, Commander Shepard, Lyner, Imran Ehsan, Xx Karl xX

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Nobody is the current wagon leader.

Deadline is Saturday, May 25th, 2013 @ 11:00 PST

 

 

 

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@KevinH

Although you have cleared up a few minor things I'm still not convinced by most of your answers about your claim.

From my perspective there are two possibilities:
1) You are indeed the vig. In this case I consider it a bad play that you claimed. I can see how someone that advocates no lynch on a regular basis could make a bad play though so it doesn't necessarily mean that you are scum.

2) You are a scum and Martino was the vig. In this case, given that you almost got lynched yesterday, if you are the SK I think you made an smart play (as I explained before). If you are a goon I don't see that much benefit in it though.

I guess either option is possible and I'm treating them as equally likely. That means that in my assessment there is a 50% chance that you are scum, most likely the SK. Other players have a considerably lower chance to be scum. Hence, my scum read on you.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Also, KevinH, would you care to explain why Rafay gets to decide what you vote?

[Nerau]

Euclid of Alexandria, on 14 May 2013 - 11:39, said:

@Nerau

 

You posted and commented on Rafay blocking you. Why did you not also comment on my case against Lyner and on KevinH's role claim? Share your thoughts please.

 

I was doing a quick comment so I didn't lose it b/c I was catching up with other stuff

 

KevinH's roleclaim is werid as I didn't see it as have to more as a want to

 

You voted for lyner b/c he basically posted bs am i right?

 

I would see that vote be justified

[KevinH]

Euclid of Alexandria, on 15 May 2013 - 00:22, said:

would you care to explain why Rafay gets to decide what you vote?

I believe he is the only almost confirmed townie. Nobody counter-claimed and nobody even voted for him at the end of the day yesterday. I could be wrong but this is a game of taking chances and I'm deciding to take a chance and believe him. My scum suspicions of him were based on Martino being a scum buddy but that didn't turn out to be true.

Anybody else that I choose to follow has a better chance of being scum and I would therefore have a better chance of targeting a townie.

[Nerau]

if i may i believe its a follow the cop type strategy but since we lack said cop he is going with someone who is the next best 

[KevinH]

Nerau, on 15 May 2013 - 01:08, said:

KevinH's roleclaim is werid as I didn't see it as have to more as a want to

Euclid of Alexandria, on 15 May 2013 - 00:20, said:

I consider it a bad play that you claimed.

Commander Shepard, on 14 May 2013 - 08:19, said:

this is a horrible play

 

Weird.
Bad.
Horrible.

How about calculated risk?

Would I have had a lynch mob after me like on Day 1? Especially if maybe the Dietician discovered I'm a Cannibal ...
If I didn't speak up, would Rafay be under suspicion because he survived the night?

So now the scum among us have to take a calculated risk.

Act like you disbelieve me, be proven wrong with when I am proven townie by lynching, and face the rest of the townies who will eventually believe me.
Act like you believe me, don't lynch me, and take a chance on my vigilante shot tonight.

[Nerau]

Everything thing is a risk tho so its always best to make the best move possible so lets roll the dice 

[Lyner]

I believe Kevin is vig, I saw the hints that he is one since the first day

 

 

On today's lynch, I propose:

1. Karl if he/his replacement doesn't show up, I don't think he will be night-killed, and if he passed to day 3 that would be bad.

2. Follow Kevin's judgment, taking the odds that rafay says the truth, that leaves out: Euclid, Imran, Karl, & Shephard (leaving me of course ), if this is true I can see Euclid's pairing with Shephard and Imran being SK, but that's only my hunch based on the premises

3. Rafay, if he lied, means that he is a SK or one of the goon, if he is SK then good, if he is mafia I have no clue who is his partner, except Nerau has higher probability

4. Kevin, if he is SK that has killed Martino the vig, and gamble that the townies will believe him, pretty unlikely though

 

What do you guys think?

[Euclid of Alexandria]

KevinH, on 15 May 2013 - 01:12, said:

I believe he is the only almost confirmed townie. Nobody counter-claimed and nobody even voted for him at the end of the day yesterday. I could be wrong but this is a game of taking chances and I'm deciding to take a chance and believe him. My scum suspicions of him were based on Martino being a scum buddy but that didn't turn out to be true.

Would everybody please stop calling Rafay confirmed town. He's likely town, obvtown if you will. It's not the same thing. The real RB may not have CCd yesterday because he didn't want to get NKd and subsequently got NKd nonetheless, i.e. Kazio or RoT may have been the real RB.
 

KevinH, on 15 May 2013 - 01:12, said:

Anybody else that I choose to follow has a better chance of being scum and I would therefore have a better chance of targeting a townie.

Even if Rafay is the real RB. That just means he knows just as little as any other townie. Since he already made a mistake in soft claiming prematurely and then again probably in blocking Nerau, following him isn't necessarily your best move.

So here's a suggestion: instead of following anybody at all. Just use your own best judgement.
 

KevinH, on 15 May 2013 - 01:32, said:

Would I have had a lynch mob after me like on Day 1? Especially if maybe the Dietician discovered I'm a Cannibal ...
If I didn't speak up, would Rafay be under suspicion because he survived the night?

As I said before, the dietician may have investigated any of 10 players. Since you had quite a wagon on you yesterday there was a good chance you were gonna get NKd. I doubt that the dietician would target you. If he is any good that is.
 
Would you have a mob after you? Probably not. I was voting for you yesterday but I'm voting Lyner now. And I started doing so even before you claimed. Martino is dead. You killed him. Killgor is dead. We lynched him. That leaves only Xarastiers's random vote from yesterday's wagon on you. If you were calculating a risk, then your calculation should have been that there probably wouldn't be another wagon on you.
 
Would Rafay be under suspicion? Everyone is under suspicion. Rafay least of all though, as he wasn't CCd.
 

KevinH, on 15 May 2013 - 01:32, said:

So now the scum among us have to take a calculated risk.

Act like you disbelieve me, be proven wrong with when I am proven townie by lynching, and face the rest of the townies who will eventually believe me.
Act like you believe me, don't lynch me, and take a chance on my vigilante shot tonight.

Had you not claimed they would have risked your vigilante shot too. They would have also risked not killing you in that case. Sure the scum have to take risk. Your claim just improved their odds though.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Nerau, on 15 May 2013 - 01:08, said:

You voted for lyner b/c he basically posted bs am i right?

I'd call it fluff, but yeah that's about all he posted.
 

Nerau, on 15 May 2013 - 01:08, said:

I would see that vote be justified

Then join the wagon.

[Imran Ehsan]

I will post my take on things. But first I would to quote one of my earlier posts:

 

Quote

Why didnt the Vig hit kevinH when he was the second most popular person voted as scum?

 

If Martino was the Vig, I have no doubt he would have used his NK ability on kevinH. He looked pretty convinced about kevin being scum. If kevin was scum masquerading as the Vig, both kevin and Martino would have been killed last night. I dont see Martino hitting kazio or RoT over kevinH. This means kevin is not false-claiming.

 

So who are the scum and the SK?

 

Previously, I had also posted that they are amongst these 5: Euclid, CS, karl, Lyner and Nerau.

 

We have a great probability of hitting one if we lynch one of these 5. CS seems to be about to roleclaim..so lets see what he has. But otherwise I will go with a lynch on karl. I have a strong feeling that he is one of the scum. We can have no read on him since he or previously Xarastier never posted much. The others who posted dont really give off that much of a scum like feeling, so theres a possibility that one of the scum is being really clever making it hard for us to id him. But two scum being very clever seems unlikely. Who his partner is I am not sure yet..it can be either Euclid or Nerau. Lyner is a possibility but my hunch is saying he is townie. So for now:

 

Vote: xx karl xx

[Commander Shepard]

Imran Ehsan, on 15 May 2013 - 06:22, said:

 

We have a great probability of hitting one if we lynch one of these 5. CS seems to be about to roleclaim..so lets see what he has. But otherwise I will go with a lynch on karl. 

 

I knew I made it too obvious.

[Commander Shepard]

Nerau, on 15 May 2013 - 01:48, said:

Everything thing is a risk tho so its always best to make the best move possible so lets roll the dice 

I think we should go with my move.

[Commander Shepard]

KevinH, on 15 May 2013 - 01:32, said:

Nerau, on 15 May 2013 - 01:08, said:

KevinH's roleclaim is werid as I didn't see it as have to more as a want to

Euclid of Alexandria, on 15 May 2013 - 00:20, said:

>I consider it a bad play that you claimed.

Commander Shepard, on 14 May 2013 - 08:19, said:

this is a horrible play

 

Weird.
Bad.
Horrible.

How about calculated risk?

Would I have had a lynch mob after me like on Day 1? Especially if maybe the Dietician discovered I'm a Cannibal ...
If I didn't speak up, would Rafay be under suspicion because he survived the night?

So now the scum among us have to take a calculated risk.

Act like you disbelieve me, be proven wrong with when I am proven townie by lynching, and face the rest of the townies who will eventually believe me.
Act like you believe me, don't lynch me, and take a chance on my vigilante shot tonight.

 

 

I think you just risked the game for the wrong reason.

Not all that much will change as the scum will still have to choose between you and the role blocker. 

Your speaking alerts us to who you're or might be, which could be a benefit for the person we want you to kill based on them being suspicious.

And it could be a reason to lynch you on Day 3 if we feel you're deceiving us.

[Commander Shepard]

KevinH, on 15 May 2013 - 01:12, said:

I believe he is the only almost confirmed townie. Nobody counter-claimed and nobody even voted for him at the end of the day yesterday. I could be wrong but this is a game of taking chances and I'm deciding to take a chance and believe him. My scum suspicions of him were based on Martino being a scum buddy but that didn't turn out to be true.

Anybody else that I choose to follow has a better chance of being scum and I would therefore have a better chance of targeting a townie.

Quote

 

Rafay role-claimed as the Roleblocker and finished the day with no votes on him. If he was lying, the real Roleblocker probably would have kept a vote on him but that didn't happen. I was suspicious of him even after the role claim.

 

First you think he should not have come forward if it was you and then you think he should have left his vote on him.

Both scenario's would result in scum known who the roleblocker was or a good idea.

If he left the vote on Rafay then everyone might not of even catched on and even if they would have to choose between two people.

I don't think any of the two would have been lynched.

And then the role blocker dies during the night because the scum knows he was the role blocker. 

Does the first person who claimed the role get lynched or not on Day 2? there are multiple argument going each way.

The Dietician would have to come forward as the dietician would of investigated the first person to claim the role.

How awful would it be if the vig, dietician and the roleblocker were all known on Day 2.