655 replies to this topic

[Imran Ehsan]

One random vote is as good as another. 

 

Is a first vote on the seventh player really any diiferent than the first vote on the sixth?

 

7 - 6 = 1 It's not much but to answer your question: yes there really is a difference.

 

Anyways, you dodge my question about voting for an absentee. The only other players that did that were killgor and Rafay but they were the first two voters so that's different.

 

Normally the inactives get lynched first because the are not helping the town scum-hunt. Also the scum tend to lay low because they dont want to say too much or reveal something that will id them as scum later on the game. When voted on the people who are trying to lie low or being inactive tend to wake up to defend themselves. So I dont really see Kevin's vote on Martino as suspicious.

[Kaziocore]

I'm thinking KevinH is town from what I've seen.  I don't know why all you guys are piling up on him so fast.  Let's keep the discussion going and figure out who to lynch before just randomly voting off someone.  Also I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of the people voting for KevinH are scum trying to rush a kill.

Aren't we discussing? I think this is good because we're not discussing anymore
about random votes and speculating about the setup, and hopefully find out
about KevinH's alignment.
 
I don't see an immediate danger of KevinH being lynched as he's still in L-3.
It's too early after all and it would definitely be suspicious if people tried to
quick hammer KevinH.
 

Normally the inactives get lynched first because the are not helping the town scum-hunt. Also the scum tend to lay low because they dont want to say too much or reveal something that will id them as scum later on the game. When voted on the people who are trying to lie low or being inactive tend to wake up to defend themselves. So I dont really see Kevin's vote on Martino as suspicious.

Then his vote is not random after all

 

Based from a lot of games we've played, the inactive people are always made scapegoats

and most of the time they are town. Though I don't know why KevinH picked Martino over

Nerau. Martino did say in the sign-up thread that he will be busy before Thursday.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

i have no idea why so many people piled up on kevin after he said we should lynch today...

 
1st me: I think I have explained myself.
2nd: Xarastier, seemed random, but 1st to put a 2nd vote on someone, not a scummy thing to do IMO.
3rd: Kaziocore, did not give much of a reason but says it's not RV so I assume he shares my reasoning.
4th: Shepard, also says it's not RV. Tbh I'm not sure what to make of his vote.
 
 

I'm thinking KevinH is town from what I've seen.  I don't know why all you guys are piling up on him so fast.  Let's keep the discussion going and figure out who to lynch before just randomly voting off someone.  Also I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of the people voting for KevinH are scum trying to rush a kill.

 
Nobody is quick hammering KevinH. That would be extremely scummy. His wagon is not random though. In fact the only three players that are not voting random are all on his wagon. KevinH stands out on several issues and his defense has not helped his case.

However there are 3 scum so it would be stupid to focus solely on KevinH. You think he is town. Okay. Care to explain? More importantly, who do you think is scum? Make a case, start a wagon, you might convince me. Currently you are just enjoying the show. Those on the KevinH case have stuck their neck out trying to get us beyond RVS. IMO it is up to someone else to start a second wagon.

 

Normally the inactives get lynched first because the are not helping the town scum-hunt. Also the scum tend to lay low because they dont want to say too much or reveal something that will id them as scum later on the game. When voted on the people who are trying to lie low or being inactive tend to wake up to defend themselves. So I dont really see Kevin's vote on Martino as suspicious.

 

It was way too early to see Martino's absence as a scum tell though. Also, if that was KevinH's reason to vote for him then he should have said so as that would be far more likely to wake Martino up than calling it a random vote. So, not buying this... but yeah, when we get to the end of the day I might join a wagon against an inactive.

[Nerau]

2 days and were already half way to lynch really?

I truely hate quick lynches and have seen nothing that is scummy just his normal right now.

[Commander Shepard]

1st me: I think I have explained myself.
2nd: Xarastier, seemed random, but 1st to put a 2nd vote on someone, not a scummy thing to do IMO.
3rd: Kaziocore, did not give much of a reason but says it's not RV so I assume he shares my reasoning.
4th: Shepard, also says it's not RV. Tbh I'm not sure what to make of his vote.
 

 

 

Slightly deluded and jumping to conclusions, I thought KevinH sounded a bit like a non townie.

When he said " I would probably advocate lynching right away in hopes of the town getting lucky."

He wants to start lynching right away, not waiting to get to grips with everything and possibly ending in the lynching of a townie randomly very quickly.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Slightly deluded and jumping to conclusions, I thought KevinH sounded a bit like a non townie.
When he said " I would probably advocate lynching right away in hopes of the town getting lucky."
He wants to start lynching right away, not waiting to get to grips with everything and possibly ending in the lynching of a townie randomly very quickly.

I don't think that shortening the day is what KevinH meant at all. So... you should probably get off this wagon.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Okay. We all hate quick lynches, obviously. Can we move on now?

[Lyner]

 

Nerau. Martino did say in the sign-up thread that he will be busy before Thursday.

 

You have an amazing power of observation Kazio

 

 

 

 

Slightly deluded and jumping to conclusions, I thought KevinH sounded a bit like a non townie.

When he said " I would probably advocate lynching right away in hopes of the town getting lucky."

He wants to start lynching right away, not waiting to get to grips with everything and possibly ending in the lynching of a townie randomly very quickly.

 

Good point, a mistake on his part, but still not very convincing

I'll vote the inactive(Martino) if he doesn't come back until Sunday, till then, let's continue our discussion

[KevinH]

Correct.  By "right away" I meant during the game's Day 1, not within a short real-life timeframe.

[KevinH]

Post Count:

9 Euclid of Alexandria
8 Kaziocore
6 KevinH
3 killgor
3 Commander Shepard
3 Lyner
2 reign of terror
2 Nerau
2 Imran Ehsan
2 Xarastier
1 Rafay
0 Martino

 

Unvote: Martino

Vote: Rafay

 

Prompting for action!

[KevinH]

The way I see it ...
 
Canibal Mafia Goons will try to kill every night.
Canibal Serial Killer will try to kill every night.
 
When they kill, we won't know which roles they got unless the town gets lucky and they kill each other.
 
Town Dietician will investigate and might find a Canibal.  If he finds a Canibal, it has a 1 in 4 chance of being the Vigilante.
 
Town Roleblocker should try to roleblock every night because at best he prevents the scum from killing a townie and at worst he prevents the Dietician from making an investigation.
 
Town Canibal Vigilante is an interesting situation.  Odds are that he will hit a townie if he night-kills but but maybe he can get lucky at hit scum.  It's a bit analygous to the town needing to get lucky with a lynch. However, there is not the added benefit of the voting patterns.  I'm inclined to think his best play would be to not kill the first night because of the additional chance that he might get the Dietician or Roleblocker which would deprive the town of those chances for "luck".  On later nights, the odds are greater that he'll hit scum and if he does hit scum, he'll get their larder and some information with that.
 
As with other games, there will be a conundrum for the Dietician, Roleblocker, and Vigilante about whether to reveal the information that they know.  If they share the information, they become a target for the night-kills.

[KevinH]

I just realized that I misspelled Cannibal a bunch of times in my last post.

 

One possible scenario:

 

Start:

9 Townies (T), 2 Cannibal Mafia Goons (CMG), 1 Cannibal Serial Killer (CSK)

 

Day 1: Townie is lynched

8T, 2CMG, 1CSK

 

Night 1: 2 Townies are killed (Vigilante doesn't kill)

6T, 2CMG, 1CSK

 

Day 2: Townie is lynched

5T, 2CMG, 1CSK

 

Night 2: 2 Townies, 1 CMG are killed

3T, 1CMG, 1CSK

 

Day 3: Townie is lynched

2T, 1CMG, 1CSK

 

Night 3: Hope that the 2 remaining scum kill each other.

 

 

We can get lucky if the scum kill each other off earlier or if we happen to get a scum in a lynch.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I don't like your scenario... you only lynch townies.

[killgor]

it's the worse case scenario situation. and it is a definite possibility. but there are a lot more possibilities where this one comes from.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

I would rather see the vigilante kill someone come night 1. At least we know he'll try to kill scum. He might get lucky. Our job is to scum hunt today as best we can so as to give him the best possible educated guess. Even if he is unlucky and kills a townie then he can still analyze who was voting for that townie, what that townie said etc. Useful info for the town if you ask me. KevinH is arguing for no vigilante kill just as he usually argues for no lynch.

[Nerau]

Thing is if was determined by luck the mafia can't lose as the odds are stacked for there favor

 

So need to spend the most time determining who is mafia and not go for quick stuff.

[Rafay]

Well I'm here thanks for the vote Kev.....

 

I don't think Kev does look scummy but can't say same 4 Kaz. He just jumped on Kev despite him already having 3 votes on him in a random scenario.

 

So my vote random at first becomes the 1st official scum hunt vote!!!

[Euclid of Alexandria]

It's always gonna be determined by luck. All we can do is improve our odds.

 

Time is on the scum's side. They will most likely kill 2 of us each night. Sitting idly until we are certain is a sure way to lose. Acting on a gut feeling is better than not acting at all. If the vigilante does not kill tonight then tomorrow we might still be 3 townies down (2 NK + unlucky lynch) and scum would have a third of the vote on day 2. On the other hand no scum can vote about the vigilante kill. It's the only 100% town motivated kill we have.

 

If we are unluckily with our day 1 lynch and the vigilante kills completely randomly he already has a 3 in 10 = 30% chance to hit scum. He does not kill randomly though. Suppose that from our day 1 discussion and lynch he can read 2 of us as most likely town. That would already increase his odds to 3 in 8 = 38%. Factoring in his reads of scum tells I would easily estimate his odds near 50/50. The vigilante is simply our best chance to get ahead and we cannot afford to waste it. There is
no telling that he will get another shot in night 2 as he might be killed before then.

 

I would also like to note that KevinH's no vigilante scenario has really bad odds for the town in the final night. The two remaining killers would have to target each other for a town win. Those odds are 1 in 9 (11%) for the town. And that doesn't even take into account that KevinH completely ignored the SK immunity in his analysis. So actual odds are even worse.

[KevinH]

That darn immunity.  Let's hope we lynch the Serial Killer because the mafia would have to kill him twice!

 

Here's another idea.  We can all "suggest" to the Vigilante who he should kill.  If he chooses to follow the most popular suggestion, we could use it as second "voting record".  That way we can get some information on suggesting patterns just like voting patterns.

 

 

 

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Here's my idea. We all do our best to get as much information out off Day 1 and then let the Vigilante make up his own mind. I don't want no scum voting about the Vigilante kill.
 

On another note... I'm done with the KevinH wagon. We have seen his defense. We have seen who jumped on the wagon and who didn't... and why. I don't think we're gonna get any more useful info from this wagon at this point. I still consider KevinH suspect though. I might very well move my vote back to him before the end of the day. However, for now...
 
Unvote
Vote Rafay

 

For saying that Kaziocore jumped on the KevinH wagon when there were already 3 votes on it (it was just me and Xarastier at that point). Kaziocore seems to me to have actually been doing some scum hunting. Now that Rafay's vote is no longer random his voting for Kaziocore seems scummy.