655 replies to this topic

[Imran Ehsan]

OK so the situation is whether CS is the real role blocker or the SK masquerading at the RB..which would mean RoT was the RB as he was killed by the SK on Day 1. I know I am a VT and I think my posts from the last 2 days will show that too. The situation has been maneuvered into such a position that we need to have complete belief in CS as the Real RB or town loses. Will the real RB want this to be the case on Day 3? I dont think so.

 

If CS is the SK and we lynch one of the remaining townies, that means town loses as he can easily kill one more townie at night and win. Lets look at N2 assuming he is the SK. He knows Rafay is scum and as there were no counter-claims to Euclid, that would mean Euclid was the cop that means Lyner is the second goon. What will the SK do in this situation? He will kill the only threat remaining to him, which is the Cop.

 

I was confused why CS did not block Lyner on N2. If he was the real RB, I am almost positive he would have blocked Lyner on N2, which would have meant there were 4 townies left today. Instead he chose to RB Nerau and bring the situation to today were we HAVE to believe that he is the RB or town loses. Lets say he convinces the 2 VTs to lynch the 3rd VT. Its a sure win for him...a perfect situation for the SK. The real RB is dead so only one mislynch means the town loses. If he was the real RB why would he chose such a scenario? He would have IMO blocked Lyner. So unless Lyner was the SK that would have prevented this complete dependance on believing in CS's role.

 

CS gave the reason that kevinH was high on his list as the SK thats why he didnt attempt to block Lyner. My question is 1) How did you know that Lyner will target kevinH and not Euclid? It seems to me like you are making up justifications for not blocking Lyner last night as you go. You had no way of knowing he will target kevinH or are you saying that Lyner killing Euclid would also have been OK? Was he on you list as a possible SK too?

 

2) I made the argument on Day 2, that it is VERY unlikely kevinH is the SK because that would have meant Martino was the real Vig and I dont see why Martino will for no reason nightkill Kazio or RoT on Night 1 instead of kevinH. kevinH was the only confirmed powerrole before this night and I find it hard to believe that you are still arguing that he may have been scum.

 

There are many discrepancies in your arguments and while I was leanng towards believing you on Day 2, my feelings on you have changed after this night.

 

Vote: Commander Shepard

[Nerau]

I wanted discussion to continue so I held my vote

 

the way it looked as lyner and kevinh took each other out

 

I have a high suspicsion that elucid was the sk

 

again blocking me was worthless as I have no power role

[Alternate_Tree]

After rereading a lot of CS's day 1 posts, I have come to believe that he is nooby at the game of mafia, but an honest nooby.  A lot of his actions and reactions are suspicious to me because I've always played with the same people.  Imran has been lurking too much for me to trust that he is a VT, while CS has made roleclaims and been one of the more active people despite a lot of suspicions directed his way.

for better or worse;

Vote: Imran

[Commander Shepard]

I was confused why CS did not block Lyner on N2. If he was the real RB, I am almost positive he would have blocked Lyner on N2, which would have meant there were 4 townies left today. Instead he chose to RB Nerau and bring the situation to today were we HAVE to believe that he is the RB or town loses.

 

It was always going to end this most likely after Rafay got lynched.

If I did block Lyner we would be 5 and then we would be most likely be down to 2 going into Day 3 and the town loses.

If it went down to 3 going into Day 3 then you would probably still have to trust me.

 

 

Lets say he convinces the 2 VTs to lynch the 3rd VT. Its a sure win for him...a perfect situation for the SK. The real RB is dead so only one mislynch means the town loses. If he was the real RB why would he chose such a scenario? He would have IMO blocked Lyner.
So unless Lyner was the SK that would have prevented this complete dependance on believing in CS's role.

 

Even if I didn't bother coming out with this strategy and I was the SK it would still be a sure win.

It would take a lot for 3 VT's to challenge me and it would be a big risk for each, they would have to trust 2 other players.

In the end your trusting of me was the most likely outcome.

 

 

CS gave the reason that kevinH was high on his list as the SK thats why he didnt attempt to block Lyner.

 

No, I blocked Nerau for reasons built over the course of Day 1 and Day 2 based on everything including his voting and non voting as well as his views and other players relations with him.

Because Rafay was a Mafia Goon I blocked Nerau instead of Lyner.

If Rafay was the SK I would have blocked Lyner as I implied in my last post in Day 2

 

 

My question is 1) How did you know that Lyner will target kevinH and not Euclid?

I had no idea who would get killed by Lyner, I'm not sure why you think I do.

I figured if Lyner was the SK then KevinH would die and Lyner would live, however it didn't work out that way.

 

 

It seems to me like you are making up justifications for not blocking Lyner last night as you go. You had no way of knowing he will target kevinH or are you saying that Lyner killing Euclid would also have been OK? Was he on you list as a possible SK too?

 

Then you overlooked this post by me 5 days ago.

#594 below

 

 From my persepective

 

A)If Rafay is the Serial Killer then for me the most likely people to be scum are KevinH + Lyner

However the flip to this is that Euclids and someone else could instead be the Mafia Goons or perhaps Euclids partner already died.

But perhaps Lyner's partner already died and KevinH is the vig.

 

 

B)If Rafay is a Mafia Goon then the person most likely to be the other goon is Nerau and the person most likely to be the SK is Lyner.

However Euclid could be lying and he could be the SK.

There again Lyner could be the other goon and Nerau could be an innocent person named to make Rafay seem more legit.

 

 

My night actions depend greatly on Rafay's true identity. 

I prefer outcome A as it is easier for me to call.

 

So yes Euclid was a viable SK if Rafay was a Mafia Goon as Rafay and Euclid could not be on the same sign.

However extremely unlikely and not someone I would attempt to block.

I decided that if Lyner and KevinH were both to die then I would would come out against Euclid because I would have felt it tied that situation up to tidy for my liking.

 

 

 

 

2) I made the argument on Day 2, that it is VERY unlikely kevinH is the SK because that would have meant Martino was the real Vig and I dont see why Martino will for no reason nightkill Kazio or RoT on Night 1 instead of kevinH. kevinH was the only confirmed powerrole before this night and I find it hard to believe that you are still arguing that he may have been scum.

 

I can't make assumptions based on Martino.

I'm not arguing that KevinH is still scum, I said that if KevinH was still alive and we didn't know his identity then he would still be high on my scum list but not enough to vote against as he claimed power role.

KevinH was not a confirmed town power.

 

 

 

There are many discrepancies in your arguments and while I was leanng towards believing you on Day 2, my feelings on you have changed after this night.

 

I can't say I agree.

While you may be the SK, if you're the 2nd VT then I suggest you don't vote anyone and let the SK vote to his own accord on whoever he chooses even if it is you.

Sacrifice yourself for the town if there is a tie in the voting.

[Commander Shepard]

I meant Day 4 in my first paragraph.

[Commander Shepard]

Blocking a person still alive paid off as I can be sure not to vote to lynch them.

However I would still have to put my trust in one other player, the role which Alternate_Tree stepped into was always a VT in my mind, though his initial post really made me question my strategy, however I fully believe in the strategy now after thinking about it for longer.

 

Realistically Imran and Alternate_Tree were never going to earn my block last night, I would not change it if I could.

So fear not there is benefit in Nerau being the person I blocked.

[Commander Shepard]

I made a mistake in the fourth paragraph, I meant to say....

 

I did not know who Lyner would kill,  I'm not sure why you think I did.

I figured if Lyner was the SK then KevinH would die and Lyner would live, however it didn't work out that way.

Lyner as the SK killing KevinH was likely but I also thought Lyner would have known his time was about up and would have targeted Euclid as a revenge act.

I was open to both KevinH been the SK and Lyner being the Mafia Goon, but not enough to act on it.

[Imran Ehsan]

It was always going to end this most likely after Rafay got lynched.

If I did block Lyner we would be 5 and then we would be most likely be down to 2 going into Day 3 and the town loses.

If it went down to 3 going into Day 3 then you would probably still have to trust me.

 

Not necessarily. If kevinH was alive today that would have meant we avoid the scenario that we are in today. We HAVE to believe your roleclaim and then lynch correctly amongst me and Alternate_Tree. This is a very poor situation..as we can already see as I am being lynched while being a VT. If Alternate is the SK and not Nerau then the game is lost. I get lynched, you block Nerau and A_T kills you. Game over.

 

So the situation you have created today is not a good place for the townies to be in. This is a toss-up between you chosing who should be lynched amongst me and A-T and you are basing lynching me on 0 to no evidence at all..and as expected getting it wrong. If you are the real RB and you are right about Nerau..then you would pull it off but if not..town loses.

 

Even if I didn't bother coming out with this strategy and I was the SK it would still be a sure win.

It would take a lot for 3 VT's to challenge me and it would be a big risk for each, they would have to trust 2 other players.

In the end your trusting of me was the most likely outcome.

 

Yes it is. So thats why I am saying if you are SK you pulled it off nicely. You created a situation where the VTs have no option but implicitly trust in you that you are the real RB and THEN trus you in lynching me over A-T. Being wrong in one one of these situations means Town loses.

 

 

B)If Rafay is a Mafia Goon then the person most likely to be the other goon is Nerau and the person most likely to be the SK is Lyner.

However Euclid could be lying and he could be the SK.

There again Lyner could be the other goon and Nerau could be an innocent person named to make Rafay seem more legit.

 

You point to it as justification. But you are talking of all possible ways here. You are saying Nerau is the most possible goon and Lyner is the SK, and then you say Euclid may actually be the SK and again you say Lyner could be the 2nd goon. So pretty much you are saying all scenarios are possible and covering your bases. I dont see how you are pointing to this post for justification when it is clear here that you are saying all different things could be possible.

 

While you may be the SK, if you're the 2nd VT then I suggest you don't vote anyone and let the SK vote to his own accord on whoever he chooses even if it is you.

Sacrifice yourself for the town if there is a tie in the voting.

 

Sacrifice myself for the town? Again thats assuming you are not the SK which I am starting to get very convinced off.

[Commander Shepard]

 So the situation you have created today is not a good place for the townies to be in. This is a toss-up between you chosing who should be lynched amongst me and A-T and you are basing lynching me on 0 to no evidence at all..and as expected getting it wrong. If you are the real RB and you are right about Nerau..then you would pull it off but if not..town loses.

 

I'm basing lynching on you on not lynching Alternate_Tree, the more I think about the more I think the role is definitely that of a VT.

It is a choice between you and Nerau for SK, the safe option is picking you.

 

 

Yes it is. So thats why I am saying if you are SK you pulled it off nicely. You created a situation where the VTs have no option but implicitly trust in you that you are the real RB and THEN trus you in lynching me over A-T. Being wrong in one one of these situations means Town loses.

The difference between me and everyone else is that you have to trust more than 1 person, I only have to trust a single person.

I prefer the odds of only trusting one person, give me your trust and I will use it as a weapon against the SK.

If you give me your trust the town would only lose if Alternate_Tree is the SK, if so I would take full responsibility.

However I don't there is must of a chance of him been the SK.

 

 

You point to it as justification. But you are talking of all possible ways here. You are saying Nerau is the most possible goon and Lyner is the SK, and then you say Euclid may actually be the SK and again you say Lyner could be the 2nd goon. So pretty much you are saying all scenarios are possible and covering your bases. I dont see how you are pointing to this post for justification when it is clear here that you are saying all different things could be possible.

The first example in both outcomes is the most likely option I would have went with.

The second examples are just to let people know that I am keeping an eye on them, I was never going to act against Euclid in the night but I was still somewhat suspicious.

The third examples are things things I would take into account during the night and in Day 3.

[Commander Shepard]

 

Sacrifice myself for the town? Again thats assuming you are not the SK which I am starting to get very convinced off.

 

This is a quote from you in Day 2

#541

 

 

And we should plan the night with our power roles such that the SK can be identified if Rafay and Lyner are goons and neither is the SK.

 

I have the means to identify the SK in one of the best situations for doing so, give me your trust. 

[Imran Ehsan]

You are pushing for lynch on a VT so no I dont trust you. The game is over if you are the SK and you dont have any proof that you didnt kill the real RB and claim it as your own.  The process you are defending to win the game for the town also involves everyone believing that A-T is not the SK and if that is true the game is over as well. A-T was active last night so he could have easily sent in the kill. On N1 I am not sure but Xarastier was still around..although he wasnt posting so he could have easily sent in the NK then too. Xar has been known for going silent and ignoring all questions at him in the last couple of games too..so him not posting doesnt mean he was inactive.

 

All these could have/should have been avoided if you blocked Lyner last night if you are the real RB. The fact that you did not so todays situation arises looks pretty straightforward to me that you are the SK.

[Imran Ehsan]

After rereading a lot of CS's day 1 posts, I have come to believe that he is nooby at the game of mafia, but an honest nooby.  A lot of his actions and reactions are suspicious to me because I've always played with the same people.  Imran has been lurking too much for me to trust that he is a VT, while CS has made roleclaims and been one of the more active people despite a lot of suspicions directed his way.

for better or worse;

Vote: Imran

 

You are basing your vote on Day 1? When everyone was posting random votes and arguing for the sake of arguing. If you want the town to win you need to look at todays situation. CS has been posting a lot yes, but I can guarantee that I lurked a lot less than Nerau. Its interesting you think I am the SK while you think Nerau is not, if you are basing your votes on who posted most. In any case, I think I made some valid posts in both the last 2 days and that you claiming that I was lurking is wrong. You need to go back and read through the whole thread and read my posts..I didnt post fluff like Lyner and Rafay or been almost absent like Nerau.

 

Keeping that aside, lets say you had the RB ability. Who would you have blocked last night? Block the identified cannibal, Lyner (id'ed by Euclid) or let him have a free shot at killing a townie before he dies? If I had the RB role I know I would have blocked him and saved an extra townie from being killed.

[Commander Shepard]

There is a misconception that KevinH being alive is a good thing and makes us closer to finding the SK.

It would not, we would be in a worse position than we're now.

If I blocked Lyner then there would be 4 other people I would have to trust, all of us would have to trust for other people.

Trusting 3 of the 4 doesn't help a lot in finding the SK, the SK prefers numbers to hide in.

I would not be able to find the SK out of the 5 people that would be alive, I guess I could trust KevinH based on the fact the SK would have to of targeted Euclid which would mean the vig would have to be still alive because only the Vig could have killed Lyner if we didn't know Lyners identity.

However KevinH could not trust me and probably would be against me because he was suspicious of me pointing out the obvious about his claim.

 

If KevinH held the power as to who got lynched then I would most likely earn his wrath as he got nothing on the other players.

If we lynched a townie such as me and then the SK killed a townie and KevinH killed another townie which would be very likely to happen, then the town would lose.

The only way we would have a chance of the SK being pinned to a limited possibility was to be if only one person died during the night which would leave 3 left alive and KevinH would definitely not be one of them.

That would leave 2 VT's and 1 SK, each incapable of separating the possibilities.

And yeah I think it is very likely KevinH would have been against me if he was still alive, it would be counterproductive for the town if anything.

And the SK would only be all too willing of helping to depose of the two town power roles left after he already killed the Dietician.

I think there is a good chance KevinH would have voted me, it doesn't help the town.

As for me during day 3, I would not be able to separate players from eachother like I did now.

Either way one of the three of you're are the SK and it would have been hard to single out the SK and guide town into a game winning position if KevinH was still alive.

You could argue I would have made it into Day 4, me making it into Day 4 would still require people to trust me.

And I could possibly convince the VT as to who was the SK, but that is not much different from what it is currently.

There is however no guarantee we would have made it into Day 4 and the VT would have trusted me.

 

 

Blocking Lyner is ultimately a worse position for the town from my view as the RB.

I didn't know for sure what role Lyner has and if I could go back, I would not change who I roleblocked. 

The current position is acceptable.

I will however be no longer trying to get your trust for obvious reasons, it ultimately depends on Nerau and Alternate_Tree.

They will decide who wins, the town or the SK.

[Commander Shepard]

 

Keeping that aside, lets say you had the RB ability. Who would you have blocked last night? Block the identified cannibal, Lyner (id'ed by Euclid) or let him have a free shot at killing a townie before he dies? If I had the RB role I know I would have blocked him and saved an extra townie from being killed.

 

The difference is that you would have the knowledge of each persons roles and and what would happen if you don't.

It is easy to look in the past and say what you would do differently.

 

And the other difference is that I stand by my decision and I see it as a better position to find the SK.

Looking back into the past and saving KevinH is counterproductive imo, KevinH had nothing to add in finding the SK and he would be the first one dispatched by the SK.

Saving a townie doesn't necessary put us in a better position for finding the SK, as confusion as to who is the SK is exactly what the SK wants everyone to think.

I have a method to get the SK it in efficient manner.

[Chaplain of death]

Vote count 3.1

 

 

 

 

Nerau (0) - 

Commander Shepard (1) - Imran Ehsan

Imran Ehsan (2) - Commander Shepard, Alternate

Alternate Tree (0) - 

 

Not Voting - Nerau

 

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

Imran Ehsan is the current wagon leader at L-1.

Deadline is Tuesday, June 13, at 7:00 PM PST.

 

 

[Imran Ehsan]

 

Vote count 3.1

 

 

 

Nerau (0) - 

Commander Shepard (0) -

Imran Ehsan (2) - Commander Shepard, Alternate

Alternate Tree (0) - 

 

Not Voting - Imran Ehsan, Nerau

 

With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

Imran Ehsan is the current wagon leader at L-1.

Deadline is Tuesday, June 13, at 7:00 PM PST.

 

 

 

This is wrong. I have already voted for Commander Shepard.

[Chaplain of death]

This issue was corrected 4 days ago and now nobody has posted. Do I need to start Prodding?

[Alternate_Tree]

I mean, we've made choices, the main thing is for Nerau to decide where he stands and give a vote

[Nerau]

Vote: AlternetiveTree

 

I am leaning towards Ihman but I want to hear more from the other

 

I am inclinced to believe CS so we will see

[Commander Shepard]

I don't have much more to add to it.

This is a wait and see post.