381 replies to this topic

[Kaziocore]

Unvote: No-Lynch

 

That was a vote to avoid the accusation that there's "something different" about my style.

 

Now for some real analysis.

 

We have 16 players. I'm going to guess 4 scum.

First a scum lynch candidate needs to be proposed (4/16ths probability).

Scum will not get on a bandwagon against one of their own.

So we need 9 of 12 townies to agree on the 1 scum lynch candidate to be successful.

This is very unlikely.

 

Alternatively, a townie lynch candidate gets proposed (12/16ths probability).

A few scum will join the bandwagon and we might be successful in getting up to the 9 votes required to lynch.

But then we have a dead townie and not much knowledge about which of the lynchers were well-intentioned townies and which were scum.

 

So considering the situation, the best course of action for a townie is ...

 

Vote: No-Lynch

For 10102012044th time, No-Lynching on D1 is a bad idea

[Kaziocore]

iSocialism's self-vote is probably related to his role.

 

FOS: killgor

 

What's your reason for voting iSocialism? Are you aware that you'll be the 4th person to vote him?

[killgor]

yes i am. and the reason is that he had 3 votes on him already, why not another one? besides, there's a long way to go until the 9 votes required for a lynch quota is met.

[Commander Shepard]

My activity won't be all that good either as I will be on a holiday until the 8th of September.

I'll try to get online if I can and post a reply.

[KevinH]

For the n+1st time, lynching when the odds certainly favor losing a townie is a bad idea.

 

That's not even mentioning the possibility of losing a power role.

[MutedFaith]

 

Unvote: No-Lynch

 

That was a vote to avoid the accusation that there's "something different" about my style.

 

Now for some real analysis.

 

We have 16 players. I'm going to guess 4 scum.

First a scum lynch candidate needs to be proposed (4/16ths probability).

Scum will not get on a bandwagon against one of their own.

So we need 9 of 12 townies to agree on the 1 scum lynch candidate to be successful.

This is very unlikely.

 

Alternatively, a townie lynch candidate gets proposed (12/16ths probability).

A few scum will join the bandwagon and we might be successful in getting up to the 9 votes required to lynch.

But then we have a dead townie and not much knowledge about which of the lynchers were well-intentioned townies and which were scum.

 

So considering the situation, the best course of action for a townie is ...

 

Vote: No-Lynch

For 10102012044th time, No-Lynching on D1 is a bad idea

 

 

Lynching against the odds is an even worse idea.

 

 

(Not going into the whole math thing again after I fucked that up last time)

[im317]

votes:

iSocialism: 4 (Alternate_Tree, Commander Shepard, iSocialism, Kilgor, Lyner)

 

Electric Mango: 0 (Killgor)

 

Commander Shepard: 1 (iSocialism, Ogaden)

 

No Lynch: 2 (KevinH, KevinH, D3mon)

 

Imran: 1 (Iron Helix)

 

KevinH: 2 (Kaziocore, Zacch, Mango)

 

Lyner: 1 (iSocialism)

[iSocialism]

yes i am. and the reason is that he had 3 votes on him already, why not another one? besides, there's a long way to go until the 9 votes required for a lynch quota is met.

Vote Kilgor

Why not make it a race to see who gets 9 first?

[killgor]

 

yes i am. and the reason is that he had 3 votes on him already, why not another one? besides, there's a long way to go until the 9 votes required for a lynch quota is met.

Vote Kilgor

Why not make it a race to see who gets 9 first?

 

 

it's certainly better than sitting around idle and waiting for stuff to happen

[Iron Helix]

Kaziocore is afraid of both my chess-playing and mafia-playing skillz.

Superior intellect will prevail!

 

^ a feeble attempt at trash-talking

 

Khan... I'm laughing at the superior intellect.

 

 

 

 

(Not going into the whole math thing again after I fucked that up last time)

 

 

[Commander Shepard]

Jesus christ, it is a perfect gif that has no clear end and is not nyan cat. 

[Lyner]

 

 

Unvote: No-Lynch

 

That was a vote to avoid the accusation that there's "something different" about my style.

 

Now for some real analysis.

 

We have 16 players. I'm going to guess 4 scum.

First a scum lynch candidate needs to be proposed (4/16ths probability).

Scum will not get on a bandwagon against one of their own.

So we need 9 of 12 townies to agree on the 1 scum lynch candidate to be successful.

This is very unlikely.

 

Alternatively, a townie lynch candidate gets proposed (12/16ths probability).

A few scum will join the bandwagon and we might be successful in getting up to the 9 votes required to lynch.

But then we have a dead townie and not much knowledge about which of the lynchers were well-intentioned townies and which were scum.

 

So considering the situation, the best course of action for a townie is ...

 

Vote: No-Lynch

For 10102012044th time, No-Lynching on D1 is a bad idea

 

 

Lynching against the odds is an even worse idea.

 

 

(Not going into the whole math thing again after I fucked that up last time)

 

 

You can't force out information by declaring that you won't lynch anyone

Especially in this game where we don't even know the rest of the roles

 

 

 

And vote: Imran for not posting yet

[im317]

I
will be out of country for the next 10 days or so. I should still be
able to check in now and then and be back in full force from Day 2
onwards probably...s dont lynch me for inactivity on Day 1

[MutedFaith]

Bad Lyner.

[Lyner]

oops

 

Vote: Ogaden then

[Kaziocore]

For the n+1st time, lynching when the odds certainly favor losing a townie is a bad idea.

 

That's not even mentioning the possibility of losing a power role.

For the 120391203912309 time, the odds will always favor losing a townie. This is mafia, deal with it.

That is why as much as possible, we try to vote someone based on who we find suspicious not randomly

so that the odds will look better. Not voting right now will also have a detrimental effect on the "odds" of voting

the scum in the succeeding days because we will lose the valuable vote records we need to analyze.

We also don't know the exact setup of the game so for prudence sake, we should not rely on the PRs to win.

Don't play as if the cop will save us all from our terrible play.

[killgor]

i guess some peps like to take initiative and others go go with the flow... like sheep to the slaughter

[Imran Ehsan]

Very limited time online and its a bitch typing on my phone.....but I am around....kinda

Vote: kazio

Errr...cant bold it on my phonr. So lets make it a vote in spirit :/

Ps: kenya is awesome. Going on a safari trip on sunday too

[Imran Ehsan]

Very limited time online and its a bitch typing on my phone.....but I am around....kinda

Vote: kazio

Errr...cant bold it on my phonr. So lets make it a vote in spirit :/

Ps: kenya is awesome. Going on a safari trip on sunday too

[im317]

votes:

iSocialism: 3 (Alternate_Tree, Commander Shepard, iSocialism, Kilgor, Lyner)

 

 

Electric Mango: 0 (Killgor)

 

Commander Shepard: 1 (iSocialism, Ogaden)

 

No Lynch: 2 (KevinH, KevinH, D3mon)

 

Imran: 1 (Iron Helix, Lyner)

 

KevinH: 3 (Kaziocore, Zacch, Mango)

 

Lyner: 0 (iSocialism)

 

Kilgor: 1 (iSocialism)

 

Ogaden: 1 (Lyner)

 

Kaziocore: 1 (Imran)