278 replies to this topic

[Imran Ehsan]

Rafay: Mostly posting fluff, not really posting much content but does seem to be reading the posts at least somewhat and he has voted for Kaz(although it's a really short explanation, it isn't a bad one necessarily. He's simply needs to explain that Kaz is trying to hard to lynch Imran based on little to no real info). This could be a case of apathy, scumminess or both.

 

Kaz: Posting content, and whatever fluff he posts is outweighed by the analyses he posts. That said, his analyses contain a lot of him just grasping at straws, pointing out small, sometimes irrelevant details to try and convince others of his suspect's scumminess. That said(again), he does make some good points.

 

thats neither here nor there. who are you nominating to get lynched today?

[Montosh]

Actual content(albeit suspicious content at times) > fluff

 

Vote: Rafay

[Kaziocore]

I thought I was lynched already D:

 

Kaz: Posting content, and whatever fluff he posts is outweighed by the analyses he posts. That said, his analyses contain a lot of him just grasping at straws, pointing out small, sometimes irrelevant details to try and convince others of his suspect's scumminess. That said(again), he does make some good points.

If you're not paranoid, then how could you catch scum?
Knowing nothing, where will you start?

 

Also it's always a shame here when the only reason a player is being lynched is

because they are inactive or they are posting fluff.

[Preston]

Day 2 Final

Rafay (4) - d3mon, Imran Ehsan, Kaziocore, Montosh

Electric Mango (0) - 

Montosh (0) - 

Kaziocore (3) - KevinH, Electric Mango, Rafay

Imran Ehsan (0) - 

KevinH (0) - 

d3mon (0) - 

 

Not Voting (0) - 

 

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to reach majority and 2 to reach half-majority.

 

The day had seen the town divided as far as it could go, and a lull of silence followed... until at the end there were only two on the ballot. Such decisions are never made easily - everyone had to have their say before the day's ghastly ritual could be concluded. 

 

In the end it was Rafay who had to die - the day's votes tallied and his fate administered by shovel to the back of the head. The hesitant town crowded around his still-twitching form and started emptying his pockets...

 

Only to find a strangely ornate dagger with recent bloodstains, looking a little too real to have been a prop from the just-past Halloween!

 

Rafay, Mafia Goon, was Lynched

 

...

 

It is now Night 2. Consider the thread locked until I post the start of Day 3 (whether someone locks it for me or not!)

 

Night actions to me by Wednesday, 5 November 2014 @ 23:00 EST

[Preston]

Day 3 Start

Electric Mango (0) - 

Kaziocore (0) - 

Imran Ehsan (0) - 

KevinH (0) - 

d3mon (0) - 

 

Not Voting (0) - 

 

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to reach majority and 2 to reach half-majority.

No one is the current wagon leader at L-3

Deadline is 14 November 2014, 21:00:00 EST

 

Jubilant that their harsh justice was actually producing results, the town gathered the next day to continue their (literal) witch hunt. Surely the invisible powers of their chosen would bring them victory! But the festive mood is tempered as the town discovers that yesterday's kingmaker is today's fresh corpse... less ritually carved and more simply butchered this time, as though in a rage. It would seem there's a price to pay for opposing evil, and last night Montosh ended up paying it. 

 

Montosh, Vanilla Townie, has been killed

 

Day 3 has begun!

[Montosh]

A simple Bah! will suffice 

[Electric Mango]

Well its up to everyone to decide whether to lynch me or Imran. I suggest Imran.

[Imran Ehsan]

Well its up to everyone to decide whether to lynch me or Imran. I suggest Imran.

 

Thats a strange thing to say when Kazio would have been lynched and Rafay would have been alive if I hadn't switched my vote from Kazio to Rafay.

[d3mon]

I believe the last scum has to be one of EM or Kevin. Though I would love to see Kazio's comments on it.

 

@EM, why do you think we should be suspicious of Imran?

[Electric Mango]

My bad, I was going off the voting records of who voted for Kaz. I should have said its between Kevin and me. Imran and everyone who voted for radar seem pretty protown if you ask me. I would be very surprised if wedding win this game very quickly.

[Imran Ehsan]

who is this radar you refer to? wedding? who's getting married? why am i not invited?

 

on a serious not, my analysis will be in the next post, once I go through last days posts.

[Imran Ehsan]

OK before I start, I must say that before the night's kill was posted I was about 70% sure the 2nd scum is Montosh. He posted that neither here neither there post right before the deadline and only took a stand when I asked him to vote. I was thinking, if he voted Kazio and kazio turned up townie he will look pretty scummy, so he made a calculated move to get his scum partner killed so he could look townie. Anyway thanks scum! you killed him and made this day easier.

 

OK. so today, we have the following left alive:

 

d3mon, Imran, Kazio, KevinH and EM

 

I think we can apply a process of elimination and identify the scum.

 

d3mon - first on the Rafay lynch wagon. If he was scum he could have easily jumped on the Kazio wagon or started a wagon on me. He didnt and instead went for Rafay. scum will have no motivation to do so. d3mon - confirmed town

 

me- I could have easily stuck to my kazio vote and got him lynched instead of Rafay. I had support from kevin and EM and montosh might have probably joined me as well. If i was scum i would have no motivation to switch my vote to Rafay and get him lynched. Me - confirmed town.

 

kazio - this is a bit tricky. he was getting lynched if I didnt switch my vote and montosh didnt vote for Rafay. He had his vote on me instead of on Rafay and only switched when it became obvious he will get lynched if Rafay was not getting lynched. If he is scum, he might have calculated that as both scum were under the spotlight, it is better for him to survive instead of Rafay. However, I find that unlikely for the moment. so. Kazio - Most probably town

 

so it comes down to kevin and EM. the remaining two on the Kazio wagon. To see what Mr. Scum, Rafay, thought of out 2 suspects, lets scrutinize some of his posts:

 

 

@Kev: I already said I'm against random voting but judging by your gameplay your aching to get 2 kills 1 in the day an another in the night but with whom.......?

 

 

ATM I'm getting suspicious readings from Kev n Lyner.

 

Maybe Lyner's just having fun but Kevin.....

 

 

Sad that it has come to this. I'm kinda stuck here don't you think??? If I vote to save myself, I'll be blamed for abandoning my strategy of no lynch on 1st day and declared scum. If I don't, the town loses a townie........ 

 

I'll vote if we can lynch KevinH or Lyner as I suspected them from the start so I'll pick either just wait....

 

 

Vote: Lyner

 

It was either Kevin or Lyner so I went for some1 who could be lynched easily....

 

 

Interesting NK.

 

Only Kevin voted for Robert.....

 

We see numerous posts from Scum Rafay against Kevin. The last post also seems to indicate that he was trying to imply that robert was night-killed because kevin was against robert and had voted for him (this may be the reason they killed robert -> he wanted kevin to look scummy based on robert's death for some reason).

 

That makes me think kevin is one of the chosen and Rafay is trying his hardest to get him lynched. Who else was trying to get kevn lynched? well EM of course. So it seems like a clear-cut case of EM being the second scum.

 

However, there are also posts like the following from EM:

 

Usually when people preface their sentence by saying, to be honest or Im not gonna lie, it usually means that person is lying or is a generally dishonest person.

 

That was posted in reply to Rafay. He knows Rafay is lying if he is his scum partner. Why is he putting a spotlight on his partners amateurish post? He has also at times commented on Rafay being a lurker and not contributing much.

 

But then EM is a very experienced player and knows that if he is not pointing out flaws in Rafay's game style, he himself will look suspicious. So he is covering his bases, in case Rafay gets exposed as scum. Unfortunately for him, Rafay's lynch, being switched from an almost sure lynch of Kazio put him into a very bad position and comments like those against Rafay is not enough to acquit him.

 

So in summary, it comes down to kevin or EM. Rafay's posts indicate he was strongly against kevin which gives kevin townie points.

 

Vote: Electric Mango

[d3mon]

Imran, thats pretty good analysis and it is very likely that you are right but there is also this post.

 

 

 

Just an observation but both EM and KevinH went to L-1 but nobody hammered. Doesn't that mean that it is very probable that one of them is scum? At least, it is a strong indicator that neither of them is chosen as scum would've put the hammer vote if that was the case.

 

The scum would've voted earlier on them and may be then try to persuade everyone against them. No scum would like to be the person hammering the final vote. 

 

 

 

And then we know that Rafay hammered a townie. Also, a lot of the posts that Rafay made against Kevin came when he was pretty close to getting lynched, so it is possible that they were just moves to distance himself. Also, iirc, he never voted for either of them.

 

I have a question for Kevin and EM. Do either of you have a power role? According to the game mechanics, we should have one.

[Imran Ehsan]

Thats a very good point. kevin went to L-1 and rafay posted after that (and before montosh unvoted) and he didn't hammer. But he had no problems hammering Lyner later on in the game. So either its pretty bad play by Rafay or his posts against kevin were fluff (he never voted against him).

[KevinH]

That makes me think kevin is one of the chosen and Rafay is trying his hardest to get him lynched.

 
 

I have a question for Kevin and EM. Do either of you have a power role? According to the game mechanics, we should have one.

 

OK, time to role-claim. I am the witch doctor.
The first night I stole juju from Electric Mango.
The second night I stole juju from Montosh.

I tried to leave hints by taking about juju and making townie lists in order of juju. That way if I got lynched later and was shown as chosen, the remaining townies could have hints about from whom I got the chosen status.

Why role-claim now? I will hopefully convince others that I'm townie with this post and I think we can use the attempts at stolen juju to narrow down the lynch candidates.

I didn't start chosen so that won't explain Rafay's targeting of me.

There are 4 townies and 1 scum left. 2 of the townies are chosen. I don't think Montosh was chosen since the scum targeted him for night-kill and they had no assurance that there was a witch doctor and that the juju would be stolen.

So if I am chosen, then I got it from Electric Mango.

If I am lynched and turn up chosen, then that will confirm Electric Mango as townie.

If Electric Mango is lynched and turns up vanilla townie, then either I stole his juju or he never had it to begin with.

However, we should not make the assumption that the scum would not lynch their own.

If I had not made this claim, a clever scum could have been in on the lynch of Rafay, pointed to Electric Mango and me claiming one of us had to be scum. After the first mislynch and another night-kill, that same clever scum claims that it must have been the other one. Another mislynch and it's game over with a scum win.

That scenario existed even before Rafay had a wagon on him so it could have been a scum plot all along. I wouldn't give a free pass to anyone at any position in the wagaon.

Discuss ...
 

[d3mon]

Thanks Kevin. I was hoping that this would be the case. Now, the strategy looks pretty easy

 

Step 1: Give everyone time to make sure that Kevin is not lying i.e. If anyone else has a power role, its time to come forward.

 

Step 2: If Kevin is not lying then we lynch EM. He is very likely scum but in the worst scenario is a vanilla townie.

 

Step 3: With 3 townies left in the game and 2 being chosen, the scum will kill a vanilla townie in the night which will leave 2 chosen townies vs 1 scum. i.e. Town win

 

Step 4: Celebrate town win.

[KevinH]

That's laying it out nicely.

 

The worst thing we could do is lynch a chosen townie.  Since I stole Electric Mango's juju, there is no way he could be a chosen townie.

[Electric Mango]

Plot twist, Im an under cover cop/doctor/jester. If you lynch me the. You will lose the towns most valuable power role plus the mafia will automatically win. Your only option is to lay down your lynch ropes and pray I show mercy. You have 24 hours to discuss.

[KevinH]

Oh, OK.

[Imran Ehsan]

erm yes. Sounds good EM.

 

Let's put Mr. Mango out of his misery.

 

or we can wait for Kazio to to show up I guess