462 replies to this topic

[Shahenshah]

Waiting on Lys to tally up everything and tell us what that means (from his world view )

[Niels]

Waiting on Lys to tally up everything and tell us what that means (from his world view )

 

Trump remains favored to win the Republican nomination, and had a decent night overall, but it was not as good as some had predicted he would have.
(1) Lost states other than Texas: Cruz was always expected to win Texas, but Cruz also won Oklahoma (and as of this very moment, is leading in Alaska).  Trump also not only lost Minnesota, he came in 3rd behind Rubio and Cruz (his first non-1st or 2nd finish).
(2) Had some closer-than-expected finishes: Trump beat Rubio in Virginia by ~3%, and Kasich in Vermont by ~2%.

 

However, as mentioned, Trump is still very much on path to win the nomination.  He did 7 contests (and is still in the running for Alaska, which would make 8) out of 11.  Importantly, Rubio appears to have missed delegate thresholds in Alabama, Texas, and Vermont (needed 20% in each, got 19, 18, and 19, respectively).  This makes the preferred "establishment" candidate's path harder - particularly since Cruz did well (winning one or two more states than expected, depending on how Alaska goes) and will therefore not have impetus to exit the race.

This is borne out in the betting markets, where people put actual money on the line:

• Trump is the safe bet by a large margin for the GOP nomination: Paddy Power Republican Presidential Nomination (bet 7, get 8 if he wins the nomination)
• Though, looking forward, we see that Clinton is favored to win the eventual general election (though as less of a favorite than Trump is to get the GOP nomination): Paddy Power US Presidential Election 2016 (bet 15, get 23 if she wins the presidency)

[Icewolf]

Did Trump win a majority (rather than plurality) in any state?

[Blade 619]

Doesn't really matter at this point, first past the post.

[Icewolf]

Doesn't really matter at this point, first past the post.

Most states are still proportional at this point I believe. Which is why Cruz got so many delegates despite only winning three states.

The answer is no Trump didn't. Which ties into my point that despite the media obsession the guy really isn't that popular.

[Lysistrata]

I fell asleep waiting for Alaska. It was more competitive than I thought it would be, on both sides, but still on track for the same result. Let me figure out what happened and how to post all this. I know I'm trimming it down, there's too much.

[Lysistrata]

Anyway you look at it, Trump had a good night. The big news is Marco Rubio won a state!

The second biggest news is Donald Trump actually got knocked down to third in a state!

The third biggest news is John Kasich almost won a state!

The fourth biggest news is Ben Carson still hasn't come close to winning any state!

 

My high five of the night goes to Oklahoma. Oklahoma is where a lot of my roots come from. All my Grandparents came from there, and I still have a ton of family that I have not seen in years, and probably never will again. Oklahoma is pretty much the most Conservative state in the country, and they stayed true to themselves on both sides. They gave Ted Cruz, the most Conservative, the win, and at the same time gave Hillary Clinton a big 'fuck you' by gifting their few Democrat delegates to Bernie Sanders. That was telling Hillary that she is not welcome in Oklahoma. I'm so proud of Oklahoma.

 

Donald Trump won - Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont, Alabama, and Arkansas

He came second - Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska

He came third - Minnesota

 

Ted Cruz won - Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska

He came second - Tennessee, Minnesota, Alabama, and Arkansas

He came third - Georgia, and Virginia

 

Marco Rubio won - Minnesota

He came second - Georgia, and Virginia

He came third - Texas, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Vermont, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Alaska

 

John Kasich came about 1,400 votes short in Vermont. It doesn't matter. Many of the thirds don't matter, I just put them there for perspective. The big losers of the night were Marco Rubio, and Bernie Sanders for the Dems. It's all coming down to winning states now, and Trump has control of that.

 

What will be coming now is truly disgraceful. Every Washington DC establishment Senator, Congressman, Lobbyist, Donor, Crony, and Lackey... on both sides... are shoveling millions of their dirty money into a single Super-Pac for the sole purpose of destroying Donald Trump. They don't understand that this is the whole reason they have Donald Trump to deal with today.

 

Donald Trump has won 10 states, Ted Cruz has won 4 states, Marco Rubio has won 1 state. Nobody appears to be leaving the race. I think Ben Carson is having too good of a time spending all that donation cash to even think about quitting. Rubio believes he will make a comeback on March 15th... I don't believe that will happen. Currently Donald Trump is still a lock for the nomination. Now I have to go make fun of the Democrats.

[Niels]

 

Doesn't really matter at this point, first past the post.

Most states are still proportional at this point I believe. Which is why Cruz got so many delegates despite only winning three states.

The answer is no Trump didn't. Which ties into my point that despite the media obsession the guy really isn't that popular.

 

 

The states voting yesterday were a mix of proportional and what would be better described as "winner-take-most."  More extensive details on the allotment calculations are here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-preview-republican-presidential-election-2016/

 

If you go to the Wikipedia article for the primary now, you can see the aggregate vote totals for each candidate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

At the moment they are:
TRUMP: 3,320,055 (34.25%)
CRUZ: 2,710,180 (27.96%)
RUBIO: 2,105,918 (21.72%)

 

You're right that Trump has not run away with the vote total - in aggregate he isn't even up to 35%.  However, in the upcoming states, which are increasingly winner-take-most, or winner-take-all, a plurality is all that is needed.  Cruz and Rubio do not lead in most such states, which is why the mathematics are running against them.  For example, in Florida, yes, Trump is only at ~40% in the polls, but that is comfortably ahead of Rubio's 21% and Cruz's 16%.

[Shahenshah]

The only path to counter Trump would be there to be only one opponent to Trump, no other path.

This is a perfect storm for establishment. Their boy Rubio is no where near and is falling behind, they hate Trump and they equally loathe Cruz.

Cruz will not get out, Rubio wont either. Carson doesn't matter, Kasich can be a spoiler, probably hoping for some deal from Trump or establishment. Trump has no need to thin the field, establishment is in paralysis.

[Mandarijn]

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/how-to-move-to-canada-google-search-donald-trump-super-tuesday-a6906741.html

[Icewolf]

 

 

Doesn't really matter at this point, first past the post.

Most states are still proportional at this point I believe. Which is why Cruz got so many delegates despite only winning three states.

The answer is no Trump didn't. Which ties into my point that despite the media obsession the guy really isn't that popular.

 

 

The states voting yesterday were a mix of proportional and what would be better described as "winner-take-most."  More extensive details on the allotment calculations are here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-preview-republican-presidential-election-2016/

 

If you go to the Wikipedia article for the primary now, you can see the aggregate vote totals for each candidate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

At the moment they are:
TRUMP: 3,320,055 (34.25%)
CRUZ: 2,710,180 (27.96%)
RUBIO: 2,105,918 (21.72%)

 

You're right that Trump has not run away with the vote total - in aggregate he isn't even up to 35%.  However, in the upcoming states, which are increasingly winner-take-most, or winner-take-all, a plurality is all that is needed.  Cruz and Rubio do not lead in most such states, which is why the mathematics are running against them.  For example, in Florida, yes, Trump is only at ~40% in the polls, but that is comfortably ahead of Rubio's 21% and Cruz's 16%.

 

It is noteworthy that Trump is actually getting less of the Republican vote than Romney got in Super Tuesday 2012. 

[Lysistrata]

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/how-to-move-to-canada-google-search-donald-trump-super-tuesday-a6906741.html

Well he told us he would make America great again.

[Shahenshah]

Objectively speaking, it's still great. Or did I miss something?

[onbekende]

 

sssshhhhhh, haven't you heared, Trump is abolishing "PC".

Means Political Capital

 

To be fair, he abolished both

 

Objectively speaking, it's still great. Or did I miss something?

you aren't the only one wondering Shah, you aren't te only one

[Lysistrata]

It's not real clear, no official announcement yet, but Ben Carson will not attend the debate tomorrow. John Kasich said during an event that Carson told him he's out... and I believe him. So I'm saying, Ben Carson is out of the race. I don't see how this affects anyone else.

[emudevelopment]

It's not real clear, no official announcement yet, but Ben Carson will not attend the debate tomorrow. John Kasich said during an event that Carson told him he's out... and I believe him. So I'm saying, Ben Carson is out of the race. I don't see how this affects anyone else.

Carson's out. His not going to the debate announcement was basically a suspension. He said he cant see a politically feasible way for him to win.

[ccabal86]

Interesting article on the BBC - It ranks candidates based on their stances on a number or things from moderate to extreme, and in this regard Trump is only really radical on immigration.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-35703300

[Lysistrata]

Interesting article on the BBC - It ranks candidates based on their stances on a number or things from moderate to extreme, and in this regard Trump is only really radical on immigration.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-35703300

That's what I've been trying to tell everyone. He's not a Conservative, and that's the reason why the establishment Republicans are trying so hard to destroy him. Trump will deal with the illegal immigration problem, and do what Congress has never been able to do... immigration reform. How will he do it?... by enforcing the immigration laws that are on the books that have been horribly ignored for decades. If Congress doesn't like the enforcement of our laws... then they will be very motivated to change them. Just think like Trump, and you can see the method behind his madness... or is it genius?

 

The law to build the wall was signed by George W. Bush in 2006... it was never built because they didn't fund it. So he doesn't need to pass a new law to build the wall, he only needs to fund it and enforce the current law. They are trying so hard to get Trump to talk specifics, but he's too smart to show his hand. I really want to know what things would be like if we didn't have a politician in charge.

[Lysistrata]

They used to call this the "silly" season... I'm renaming it... it's now called the "insane" season.

 

I'm so confused about how much is happening, I don't really know how to begin to explain it. The Republicans began this election process with the strongest field of candidates in history. They are now left with the people's choice... an eccentric billionaire that has a knack for saying anything that comes into his head.

 

The Republican establishment are so desperate to stop Trump, that they are talking about taking the nomination from him through a brokered convention, or letting him have the Republican nomination, and running a third party Conservative candidate. If they follow through with either of these options, the party blows up, and Hillary Clinton will be President, unless of course she's forced out because she's a criminal. Then we will have whoever they want.

 

The smart thing to do is to put lipstick on your pig and take it to the pageant... but politicians are an unusual bunch of idiots. They are so full of themselves, and believe they know so much better than everyone else, that it is their civic duty to deny the people of their choice, and accept failure in glorious, spectacular, splendor. There is still time, and great hope, that they will pull their heads from their over-sized rectums and just do what needs to be done... but these morons allowed Obama a second term, and there is nothing they are capable of that will surprise me.

 

Ben Carson spoke at CPAC yesterday, and is officially out. They are calling this Super Saturday... 4 states for Republicans. Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Maine will decide on what to do... support Donald Trump, or try to block his nomination. That's pretty much the choice that is left, and it's causing so much infighting in the party, more than I have ever seen. If they didn't want Trump, they should have never allowed him to run. We shall see...

[onbekende]

Could they have stopped him from running? Probalby they could have technically, but could they have just come out and say "no"?

 

And offcourse Trump isn't conservative, he is radical, there is a difference