860 replies to this topic

[Chaplain of death]

Its not that there is irrefutable evidence against you Rhizo, that was never my point and i don't think anyone else has tried to say that. But there IS evidence. Id rather act on that evidence than ignore it since that's how mafia works.

We arent defending d3mon. We are trying to use the towns lynch on what we see as the towns most valid target. The only reason we are arguing against lynching d3mon specifically is because a wagon sprouted up out of nowhere trying to lynch him instead of you, which is very suspicious since it only really got momentum once you were at risk of being lynched at deadline.

[Rhizoctonia]

Its not that there is irrefutable evidence against you Rhizo, that was never my point and i don't think anyone else has tried to say that. But there IS evidence. Id rather act on that evidence than ignore it since that's how mafia works.

We arent defending d3mon. We are trying to use the towns lynch on what we see as the towns most valid target. The only reason we are arguing against lynching d3mon specifically is because a wagon sprouted up out of nowhere trying to lynch him instead of you, which is very suspicious since it only really got momentum once you were at risk of being lynched at deadline.

 

 

There's evidence I could be as likely a VT as a Scum that you want to claim.  There's as much evidence to believe I'm scum as there's for everyone else, besides Kevin and Mandarijn.  Basically Mandarijn's information proves I'm either Vanilla Town or I'm a no role scum...which literally can be said for you and everyone else at this point, because no one else is verified.  You're defending him, you're doing everything within your power to shift votes off him.  There's nothing more you can say or do since D3mon hasn't said anything or voted to use as a reason to say he's town or to keep him.  

 

The only people who have spoke out in "defense" of me is merely disputing what you'll are trying to use against me.  Not everyone has to feel Mandarijn's evidence he presented has to mean I have to be Scum like some believe.

 

And to correct you, the first vote on D3mon was not when I was in risk of being lynched.  In fact, at that time, it was 3 Canik, 2 Avatar, and 2 me.  Canik then, in an obvious move to look to save himself jumped on my train, followed by a pretty much proven townie in Kevin voting D3mon, and Roq voting D3mon and who I believe is likely town if his slip up in PM'ing his night action in wrong PM is any inclination of his true role.  I was at much risk as the likes of Canik at the time...and that was only because Canik latched on to the only person who could save him and chose me.  

[Canik]

with 16 people left, 5 assumed scum. That gives us a 68% chance of lynching town, 32% scum. (I think, my math isn't the greatest but pretty sure that's right)

Now assume this is a role madness game with only 1-2 vanilla town. Let's assume 2. Now let's assume there are 2 vanilla scum.

2-2, clearly that's 50%.

Only 1 VT, and 2 VS (vanilla scum), that's a 75% chance you, Rhizo, are scum.

1 VT/ 1 VS, back to 50%.

50% still isn't that great, but it's better than 32%.

-----

btw, I still don't care that much, but you were my preferred choice then and still are.

I also discouraged the lynch on Kazio, and he turned out to be town.
 

Only 1 VT, and 2 VS (vanilla scum), that's a 75% chance you, Rhizo, are scum.

correction: that would be 66.6%, obviously xD

[Chaplain of death]

Also highly probable that scum have a god father. Variations on the god father role have total investigation immunity and would show up as vanilla to a role cop. So its more likely that you would be scum than townie.

Everyone else's roles for the most part are a complete mystery, yours has only a select few things it could be.

[Canik]

Canik then, in an obvious move to look to save himself jumped on my train

You of all people should not be criticizing someone for trying to save themselves, when it's damn near all you've done, and you don't even have an important town role. (If you're town at all)

You do realize you win if town wins right? Whether or not you die.

[Rhizoctonia]

Canik then, in an obvious move to look to save himself jumped on my train

You of all people should not be criticizing someone for trying to save themselves, when it's damn near all you've done, and you don't even have an important town role. (If you're town at all)

You do realize you win if town wins right? Whether or not you die.

I really don't care you jumped on it, I don't blame you for it, but I'm going to point it out when I wasn't even with the most votes prior to you joining since it was claimed D3mon wagon was only when I was in danger. I already stated in me reasoning for D3mon it was for his inactivity as well as its my only option if I am to survive. Rather have an active townie then a possible one doing nothing nor doing his roles if he has any, or he's scum.

I see the lynch wagon off you has sure seemed to boost your confidence though. Suddenly become outspoken after you didn't care and all.

[Chaplain of death]

Canik then, in an obvious move to look to save himself jumped on my train

You of all people should not be criticizing someone for trying to save themselves, when it's damn near all you've done, and you don't even have an important town role. (If you're town at all)
You do realize you win if town wins right? Whether or not you die.

I really don't care you jumped on it, I don't blame you for it, but I'm going to point it out when I wasn't even with the most votes prior to you joining since it was claimed D3mon wagon was only when I was in danger. I already stated in me reasoning for D3mon it was for his inactivity as well as its my only option if I am to survive. Rather have an active townie then a possible one doing nothing nor doing his roles if he has any, or he's scum.
I see the lynch wagon off you has sure seemed to boost your confidence though. Suddenly become outspoken after you didn't care and all.

Id rather have a good chance at lynching scum and getting information for the town to move forward with than lynching an inactive and praying someone finds the needle in the haystack with a night action.

[Rhizoctonia]

I'm done replying to the same crap over and over at this point....it's getting no where. Mandarijn has posted his results, for which explains nothing nor is evidence of anything besides having no role which I don't being a VT. Anyone using that as anything more is purely trying hard to push a lynch and pure speculation. No one knows what roles are out there or how many other VT's are out there if any besides me. COD already proved my point earlier, that it really doesn't matter to him. To him I'm scum because he believes there isn't any VT, and then goes so far to say if another VT is found, I am even more likely scum. So there's no point in arguing, he is going to continue to assume what he feels like assuming with no evidence one way or the other.

[Chaplain of death]

Im going to keep coming to the same conclusion based on the available evidence*

You havent made a good counter argument because there isn't one to be had. That isn't your fault and i bet its frustrating, but it doesn't change the fact that you are statistically more likely to be scum (or at the very least 50/50 which is still far more likely than anyone else given what information we have. )

[Rhizoctonia]

Im going to keep coming to the same conclusion based on the available evidence*

You havent made a good counter argument because there isn't one to be had. That isn't your fault and i bet its frustrating, but it doesn't change the fact that you are statistically more likely to be scum (or at the very least 50/50 which is still far more likely than anyone else given what information we have. )

Again there's a 50/50 chance anyone besides Mandarijn and Kevin are scum, including yourself. There's two outcomes, a person is town or Mafia. Mandarijn evidence didn't change this or increase the chances, all it proved is I could be town or I could be scum...which I could say for you or anyone else. It doesn't disprove or verify one way or the other, it merely told us what everyone already knows.

Please tell me....what are the odds say Imran is scum? I see only two outcomes, he's either Town or he's Scum, he has a 50/50 chance of being either...there's no 3rd option.

i have the same chance of being scum or town as the next person. So anything besides that is purely speculating what roles the admin used in this game, for which I don't know, you don't know, he only knows. You can surely use that as your reasoning, but all it is is pure speculation and absolutely nothing more. Without knowing what roles are in the game or how many, all you have is a guess....which anyone can do. Go off your guess, that's fine. But if you're going off available evidence, the evidence is I have a 50/50 chance of being town or scum, and you have a 50/50 chance of being town or scum...Mandarijn's evidence didn't change that nor swing it one way or the other

[Chaplain of death]

Im going to keep coming to the same conclusion based on the available evidence*
You havent made a good counter argument because there isn't one to be had. That isn't your fault and i bet its frustrating, but it doesn't change the fact that you are statistically more likely to be scum (or at the very least 50/50 which is still far more likely than anyone else given what information we have. )

Again there's a 50/50 chance anyone besides Mandarijn and Kevin are scum, including yourself. There's two outcomes, a person is town or Mafia. Mandarijn evidence didn't change this or increase the chances, all it proved is I could be town or I could be scum...which I could say for you or anyone else. It doesn't disprove or verify one way or the other, it merely told us what everyone already knows.
Please tell me....what are the odds say Imran is scum? I see only two outcomes, he's either Town or he's Scum, he has a 50/50 chance of being either...there's no 3rd option.
i have the same chance of being scum or town as the next person. So anything besides that is purely speculating what roles the admin used in this game, for which I don't know, you don't know, he only knows. You can surely use that as your reasoning, but all it is is pure speculation and absolutely nothing more. Without knowing what roles are in the game or how many, all you have is a guess....which anyone can do. Go off your guess, that's fine. But if you're going off available evidence, the evidence is I have a 50/50 chance of being town or scum, and you have a 50/50 chance of being town or scum...Mandarijn's evidence didn't change that nor swing it one way or the other

The odds of a random person being scum is 20-25%. Adjusted for lost townies its probably slightly above 30 now. Just because there are only 2 possibilities doesn't make it 50/50, good effort on skewing the facts in your favor though.

10/10 effort.

[Rhizoctonia]

 

 

Im going to keep coming to the same conclusion based on the available evidence*
You havent made a good counter argument because there isn't one to be had. That isn't your fault and i bet its frustrating, but it doesn't change the fact that you are statistically more likely to be scum (or at the very least 50/50 which is still far more likely than anyone else given what information we have. )

Again there's a 50/50 chance anyone besides Mandarijn and Kevin are scum, including yourself. There's two outcomes, a person is town or Mafia. Mandarijn evidence didn't change this or increase the chances, all it proved is I could be town or I could be scum...which I could say for you or anyone else. It doesn't disprove or verify one way or the other, it merely told us what everyone already knows.
Please tell me....what are the odds say Imran is scum? I see only two outcomes, he's either Town or he's Scum, he has a 50/50 chance of being either...there's no 3rd option.
i have the same chance of being scum or town as the next person. So anything besides that is purely speculating what roles the admin used in this game, for which I don't know, you don't know, he only knows. You can surely use that as your reasoning, but all it is is pure speculation and absolutely nothing more. Without knowing what roles are in the game or how many, all you have is a guess....which anyone can do. Go off your guess, that's fine. But if you're going off available evidence, the evidence is I have a 50/50 chance of being town or scum, and you have a 50/50 chance of being town or scum...Mandarijn's evidence didn't change that nor swing it one way or the other

The odds of a random person being scum is 20-25%. Adjusted for lost townies its probably slightly above 30 now. Just because there are only 2 possibilities doesn't make it 50/50, good effort on skewing the facts in your favor though.

10/10 effort.

 

 

 

It doesn't matter whatever way you want to cut it, Mandarijn's information didn't suddenly increase my odds compared to any other random person.  I have the exact same chance of being town or scum as you're.  His evidence he revealed didn't up my chances of either, no matter how you want to spin it.  All it supplied was that I have no role, this does nothing to make me have statistically higher odds of being scum.

[Chaplain of death]

 

 

 

Im going to keep coming to the same conclusion based on the available evidence*
You havent made a good counter argument because there isn't one to be had. That isn't your fault and i bet its frustrating, but it doesn't change the fact that you are statistically more likely to be scum (or at the very least 50/50 which is still far more likely than anyone else given what information we have. )

Again there's a 50/50 chance anyone besides Mandarijn and Kevin are scum, including yourself. There's two outcomes, a person is town or Mafia. Mandarijn evidence didn't change this or increase the chances, all it proved is I could be town or I could be scum...which I could say for you or anyone else. It doesn't disprove or verify one way or the other, it merely told us what everyone already knows.
Please tell me....what are the odds say Imran is scum? I see only two outcomes, he's either Town or he's Scum, he has a 50/50 chance of being either...there's no 3rd option.
i have the same chance of being scum or town as the next person. So anything besides that is purely speculating what roles the admin used in this game, for which I don't know, you don't know, he only knows. You can surely use that as your reasoning, but all it is is pure speculation and absolutely nothing more. Without knowing what roles are in the game or how many, all you have is a guess....which anyone can do. Go off your guess, that's fine. But if you're going off available evidence, the evidence is I have a 50/50 chance of being town or scum, and you have a 50/50 chance of being town or scum...Mandarijn's evidence didn't change that nor swing it one way or the other

The odds of a random person being scum is 20-25%. Adjusted for lost townies its probably slightly above 30 now. Just because there are only 2 possibilities doesn't make it 50/50, good effort on skewing the facts in your favor though.

10/10 effort.

 

 

 

It doesn't matter whatever way you want to cut it, Mandarijn's information didn't suddenly increase my odds compared to any other random person.  I have the exact same chance of being town or scum as you're.  His evidence he revealed didn't up my chances of either, no matter how you want to spin it.  All it supplied was that I have no role, this does nothing to make me have statistically higher odds of being scum.

 

 

Actually it DRASTICALLY changes your odds. You could be a vanilla scum, a completely investigation proof godfather, or a VT. Chances scum have a god father? Pretty damn high, higher I would say then the likely hood of there being VT's in the game though we don't know if hes immune to the role cop or not. Chances of vanilla scum despite role madness? high, there's likely 5 scum since there doesn't appear to be a SK and giving all 5 of them special abilities would be stupidly powerful.

 

Therefore theres likely 2 vanilla scum, with a godfather who potentially would show up vanilla. At most 2 VTs IMO. Therefore 3/5 chance of being scum. even if we just assume 50/50 thats still WAY higher than anyone else in the game. 5/16 chance for everyone else to be scum at this point. So even if we are assuming that your chances of being scum are less than what they most likely are, they are still higher than everyone else in the game currently. Add to that the scummy reaction that Lyner had to your lynch wagon and it only makes it worse.

[Ali bin Turban]

Wouldn't you agree that Rhizo an easy lynch or no lynch once we actually find out more about him or the possibility of a VT? As I see it now is that lynching d3mon, or any other inactive, could potentially prove Rhizo's innocence (because someone else is a VT as well), or we find out via night actions that he is or is not scum. Best case scenario is we do lynch inactive scum. Worst case scenario is we do lynch someone with a power role, but that person wasn't going to use that power to benefit the town anyway, especially if d3mon is already on so many votes, so close to deadline. Putting Rhizo to the side just for now is in my book the right play, maybe it's because I'm more leaning towards him being innocent.

I'm wrapping my head around this post and I really cant.

1 How the hell can lynching d3mon prove Rhizo innocence? There can be 0,1,2...VT in this game. D3mon turning out VT or PR does not prove anything.

2. Who in his right mind would expect getting results off Rhizo via night action? If he's a VT you'll get nothing. If he's scum he'll sit on his hands just in case and you'll get nothing too.

3. Best case scenario is lynching an active scum with some leads that can be used to determine who's the scum and who's townie. Lynching inactive scum is just postponing the game. It's good because it gets us one more night action, but nothing more. Hardly a best case scenario.

 

Yeah we're close to the deadline, so I'll make it easier (or harder?) for you and everyone else that are hesitating:

 

unvote

 

vote Rhizoctonia

 

Now we have 5 on d3mon and 5 on Rhizo. I'm getting back on him because:

1. Noone but Lyner likes Finster and Finster's scuminess begins to dwarf when compared to Rhizo's.

2. Rhizo's responses are getting scummier and scummier:

     I asked him not to lie here http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/56759-tw-01-cybernations-mafia-day-3/page-27#entry854958 .

     He didn't even bother to respond, just continued spinning, like in here http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/56759-tw-01-cybernations-mafia-day-3/page-29#entry855208

     At this point it's clear to me he's not interested in discussion. It's simply a spam to cover the track.

 

For the record my initial theory is here: http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/56759-tw-01-cybernations-mafia-day-3/page-26#entry854496 . Everyone can compare it with Rhizo's nitpicking. It was born due to KevinH suggestion (that I find quite possible) that it were all townies arguing while scums took less active approach and enjoyed the show. I wasn't really convinced then, just probing and also baiting (especially Finster), but Rhizo proved to be non-rational in this discussion increasing my suspicion each passing day.

 

- I also don't like the fact he's trying to save his "presumably" VT's life by sacrificing someone's else.

- Finally as CoD has mentioned and it's rational from logical point of view, by pure mathematic there's much higher chance of Rhizo turning out to be a scum (50%: assuming there's an equal chance for VT and VG to appear in game), than d3mon (30%).

 

...oh and Rhizo has also tried to spin that fact into some bullshit (here: http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/56759-tw-01-cybernations-mafia-day-3/page-30#entry855263) which earns him another scummy point.

[Ali bin Turban]

I'll just add one simple thing:

 

 

Targeting Rhizo is the lowest risk - highest reward move we can make today.

 

Out of all players he has the highest chance of turning out to be scum (just by math, not to mention his acting). At the same time if he turns to be a scum it'll confirm a lot of townies and point to another suspects. And that will be a turning point. We won't gain anything like that out of d3mon lynching.

[Canik]

So what happens if it's tied 5-5?

KevinH get in here and change your vote to Rhizo

[KevinH]

First to the most is the typical mod choice for half-majority lynch. (we should spell that out as a rule somewhere)

So D3mon is still the candidate at the moment.

 

I'm leaving my vote on D3mon, because that's the best for the town.

[Canik]

I'm leaving my vote on D3mon, because that's the best for the town.

Surprised you still feel that way, but okay. We'll see. Hope you're right.

TW if you aren't following the tie rule KevinH suggests, let me know. I'll change my vote to d3mon to ensure someone gets lynched.

[Antoine Roquentin]

 

 

It'd be interesting for two to get lynched.

[The Warrior]

Vote Count

d3mon (5): Rafay, KevinH, Roquentin, Rhizoctonia, Yehom

Rhizoctonia (5): Chaplain of Death, Canik, Imran Ehsan, Mandarijn, Ali bin Turban

Canik (1): Finster Baby

Finster Baby (1): Lyner

Imran Ehsan (1): iSocialism

Ali bin Turban (0):

Avater (0):

Chaplain of Death (0):

iSocialism (0):

KevinH (0):

Lyner (0):

Mandarijn (0):

Rafay (0):
Robert2424 (0):

Roquentin (0):

Yehom (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: Avater, d3mon, Robert2424

 

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch or 5 at deadline.
Deadline is Saturday, May 14th, at 9:00am CN Server Time.