926 replies to this topic

[Finster Baby]

Based off Kevin's Role claim:

VOTE: Ali bin Turban

Why? Because in this game, I don't like you and I want you dead.

[legoboyvdlp]

Alright then, Kev I believe you.

Unvote
vote: Rafay

[Chaplain of death]

I'm at L-1.
 
One more vote and I'm lynched so I want everyone to notice how wrong they are.
Remember this in future games when the "scum-hunters" think they know so much, but they don't.
 
Fact: Day 1 lynches are bad.  
We didn't lynch on Day 1 and that's good.
Yet the "evidence" against me is that I voted for no-lynch but pointed out inactivity by Rafay.
 
Fact: The town needs to start lynching Day 2.  
Investigations have happened so there's a bit of an invisible hand helping the town make a better choice.
If all the players are active, then the town takes a chance and hopes to get lucky.
 
Fact: Rafay has the same odds of being scum as anyone else.  He might be town but if so his vote might not be there when needed.  The fact that a few are defending him makes me think he has a greater chance to be scum.
 
It's an obvious choice, but half of you are not making it.
 
Time to role claim.  I'm Professor Sprout, a Hogwarts Tracker.  Night 1 I tracked Sister Midnight and I didn't see anything.
 
Believe me?  If not, you will.  And look to those that claim to see a "difference" in my play style.  You'll probably find your scum there.

You're behavior has been suspicious and out of the ordinary, but it would appear that it isn't caused by being scum.

unvote

I think i speak for many of us when i say we understand your feelings about not lynching on day 1 kev, however, not lynching day 1 and then lynching an inactive day 2 is kind of stupid. You knew how he would play. If you're willing to lynch him day 2 for it, then don't waste a day.

I'm at L-1.
 
One more vote and I'm lynched so I want everyone to notice how wrong they are.
Remember this in future games when the "scum-hunters" think they know so much, but they don't.
 
Fact: Day 1 lynches are bad.  
We didn't lynch on Day 1 and that's good.
Yet the "evidence" against me is that I voted for no-lynch but pointed out inactivity by Rafay.
 
Fact: The town needs to start lynching Day 2.  
Investigations have happened so there's a bit of an invisible hand helping the town make a better choice.
If all the players are active, then the town takes a chance and hopes to get lucky.
 
Fact: Rafay has the same odds of being scum as anyone else.  He might be town but if so his vote might not be there when needed.  The fact that a few are defending him makes me think he has a greater chance to be scum.
 
It's an obvious choice, but half of you are not making it.
 
Time to role claim.  I'm Professor Sprout, a Hogwarts Tracker.  Night 1 I tracked Sister Midnight and I didn't see anything.
 
Believe me?  If not, you will.  And look to those that claim to see a "difference" in my play style.  You'll probably find your scum there.

You're behavior has been suspicious and out of the ordinary, but it would appear that it isn't caused by being scum.

unvote

I think i speak for many of us when i say we understand your feelings about not lynching on day 1 kev, however, not lynching day 1 and then lynching an inactive day 2 is kind of stupid. You knew how he would play. If you're willing to lynch him day 2 for it, then don't waste a day.



Ew double post

[Canik]

@ Rhizo & CoD, you two realize we got a free no lynch day 1 right? That makes no lynching even more clearly favorable. If it wasn't for scum getting lucky with killing the watcher we could have more info to work with today and lynching day 1 would've been ultra stupid. That is why I didn't push for the lynch on Rafay D1.

To reiterate - it's almost like that was D0 and this is actually D1.

Also:

You've been
pushing for Rafay's lynch for no concrete reason other than he's
inactive from his post count

That's literally the only 'concrete' thing we have.

The only good argument I'm hearing for lynching someone other than Rafay is that we'd have more to analysis afterwards. I will give that some thought and check in again before the deadline. Also might post an updated suspect analysis if I have time.

[Sister Midnight]

Based off Kevin's Role claim:

VOTE: Ali bin Turban

Why? Because in this game, I don't like you and I want you dead.

WTF?  That's a total spam vote. 

 

UNVOTE:  RAFAY

VOTE: FINSTER BABY

[Preston]

We certainly had a rush of people voting mid-day, which is more than I expected and confirmation that Kevin's behavior was catching a lot of peoples' attention. People piled onto Rafay to try and hammer that wagon - seemingly to prevent Kevin's lynch. Then more people piled onto Kevin until he roleclaimed.

Kevin's roleclaim is interesting; it is basically a "no result" roleclaim that provides no provable knowledge and could be falsified - however it would carry some risk. It hinges on two things: lack of a tracker counter-claim and Sister Midnight's confirmation that she didn't do anything last night as Kevin reported.

Let's go through the possibilities.

1: Kevin's claim is real and SM did nothing last night - the obvious, and what everyone seems to be responding to based on all the unvotes.
2: Kevin and SM are scum together, and SM just bailed Kevin out with that confirmation. If scum has daytalk like last game this is certainly something they could coordinate, but it would still risk a potential counter-claim if there is a real town tracker - and we have no guarantee one is in the game at all.
3: Kevin is scum and SM is not, but he either knows SM has no role (scum investigation on their side, etc) or otherwise he guessed correctly on a townie without a role. Same caveat about risking a town tracker counter-claim.

We need to be VERY careful about ruling out either scenario 2 or 3, because the payout for scum making a *SUCCESSFUL* fake-claim like this is practically immunity from suspicion until the end of the game.

At this time there is no means to test Kevin's claim further short of directly lynching him, and if he is telling the truth that would be a SECOND power role lost - which we really can't afford.

So on the sheer *potential* that Kevin's roleclaim could be the real thing, we can't risk lynching him right now - however I would STRONGLY suggest we get a cop of some variety to verify Kevin and SM ASAP - I don't want to give scum a free pass as 'proven' town if this really was an orchestrated claim per scenario 2.

Unvote

Kevin: in the scenario that you really are town, you really need to work on how you respond to criticism - because in addition to the fact of you supporting wagons while not voting for them, your responses are what kept my vote on you until now. Twice you chose to call peoples' opinions "lies" instead of dealing with or even acknowledging the substance of their argument. That that this many people jumped on your wagon means that your actions were objectively concerning for very nearly a literal majority.

So we had quick wagon jumpers on both sides - voting for Rafay, and voting for Kevin. There is no guarantee that one of them must be scum - Rafay hasn't even voted yet - so I don't know if we can say that one side is mostly scum defending their own or not.

At this point I am not sure whom to vote for, with a few hours remaining in the day.

* Lyner was second on my list of suspects, but his association with and support of Kevin has me tying them together - so I am less certain of Lyner now.

* Lego no longer appears to be as valid of a suspect in the wake of the observation that if he got a warning about mass claiming, his VT claim is more likely legitimate.

* If we finish the lynch on Rafay we will likely remove an inactive townie - since if Rafay were lurking scum instead of just inactive and Kevin is truly town, Rafay's vote on the wagon would have ended the day just now. The question is whether at this point lynching an inactive would be in the town's interest, despite the higher odds of him being town and knowing that the list of Rafay votes will not give us much information, if any. My theory is that anyone with a power role (and scum counts as that) is less likely to just give up on the game like that. The only/main thing that stands out to me about Rafay is his activity at the start of D2; that's the only premise where I might see him as potentially scummy enough to warrant lynching on suspicion instead of just his silence.

I'll do some more reading after I hit post here and hopefully have more of an answer before I go to work in the morning.

Also, Finster... I have no idea what this is:

Based off Kevin's Role claim:

VOTE: Ali bin Turban

Why? Because in this game, I don't like you and I want you dead.

Right now Ali's wagon looks to have NO chance of finishing, so either you are registering your suspicion (which your rationale doesnt seem to support) or just putting your vote somewhere? I've seen some of your back-and-forth posts with Ali, but I still don't get this.

-Preston

[Sister Midnight]

Also, Finster... I have no idea what this is: Finster Baby, on 18 Aug 2016 - 21:51, said: Based off Kevin's Role claim: VOTE: Ali bin Turban Why? Because in this game, I don't like you and I want you dead. Right now Ali's wagon looks to have NO chance of finishing, so either you are registering your suspicion (which your rationale doesnt seem to support) or just putting your vote somewhere? I've seen some of your back-and-forth posts with Ali, but I still don't get this.

 

And that is why he has my vote.  I really want to lynch Rafay because of inactivity, but that was too scummy to ignore.

[Lyner]

This sudden increase of activity is suspicious

 

Kevin's roleclaim can be confirmed on the next days, doesn't necessarily mean that he is town though. In fact, when the wagon started on Kevin, people started to pour down on Rafay when they're hesitant to do so a while ago. If Kevin actually turned out scum we should look at those jumpers.

 

At this point Rafay will be killed. If he actually cares to win this game he should come and roleclaim or something. He won't be replaced since he is actually active but not posting.

 

 

If I were cop, I would check: Preston/AbT/SM/Mazu/D34th/Icecream

If I were watcher, I would check Kevin/Canik/iSoc/myself

If I were doctor, I would check low profile but townie looking people

[Rhizoctonia]

I'll unvote Kevin for now.  I'll give Kevin the benefit of the doubt that his RC is true (still very well could be made up), but I'll give him another day, and if he's alive tomorrow, I'll wait to see who he tracks and if he finds anything or the other person confirms his action.  If we have a doctor, maybe worth saving him, though that's your choice since if scum know you're 100% they will just pick someone else.

 

If Kevin is town, I'll apologize for my push his way.  I'm sorry, but I don't like you're analysis, as I think it's quite flawed.  I for one believe D1 is the best day to take out an inactive or a habitual lurker/non player like Rafay if you're going to.  You have played with Rafay enough to know his playstyle Kevin, your vote early on D2 wasn't going to spark his activity, votes on him don't matter nor does he respond to it.  I much rather knock off him D1 and have D2 focused on actually more posts and scum hunting, as someone may know something.  I don't agree with your analysis of No Lynch being worth townie points, as I stated, you've been scum many times and used it to hide, King Hitler did last game, and others have in the past.  To be frank, I don't think that's a legitimate analysis to really go off of. 

 

I also found it quite odd that once you started gaining steam, the votes really started coming in on Rafay like people wanted to save you.  There were many in quick succession.  But I'll take your word today about ur RC for now.

 

So new likely Town in no real order:

 

1.  Lego

2.  D34th

3.  Samus

4.  Lyner

5.  Preston

6.  Kevin

 

With counting myself, that means if I was 100% right on all my feelings, that leaves 10 others left with 5-6 likely scum.

 

I still think Rafay is likely Town.  The 7 votes on him he got today before others changed over makes me very suspicious they were all town.  I thought it was suspicious when he got 5 pretty quick votes D1, now it's up to 7.  So there's scum on the Rafay wagon, and possibly some that switched over to Kevin.

 

Whose left

 

1.  Rafay - Think it likely town do to high numbers of votes and effort 2 days in a row

2.  1cecream - Contradicted himself D1 from basically saying we should lynch to no lynch and stayed that was through D1, is involved on Rafay Vote.  He's currently suspect #1

3. Canik - Involved on Rafay vote.  Don't like his latest comment about "concrete" evidence.  Just because Rafay is inactive and that's known doesn't mean scum, nor does it mean he can't be replaced.  This is a habitual action of Rafay which isn't new this game, so it's not like he has tried to be inactive due to his role.  There's a whole lot of "concrete" statement's I could make, they all mean as much as Rafay being inactive.  Suspect #2

4.  FB - Has switched votes a whole lot.  Not necessarily a scum sign, seems to at least be reading people's analysis of others and impacting his thoughts.  Votes ABT at the end for simply not liking him this game

5.  SM - Bouncing around votes, similar to FB.  Now has voted FB for his vote on ABT

6.  ABT - Him and FB have been back in forth.  Is this a staged little fight to make sure they're not connected?  This whole game something has not let me really feel comfortable with ABT.  Wanted Lego who I believe is town, then switched to Kevin after I and others directed steam that way whose RC says town now.  Two votes on townies today IMO...him and FB going at it.
7.  Wolfpacks - Votes No lynch, then goes Maz.  Agree Maz hasn't helped much, but could be said for many.  Pressure vote should of happened earlier in day.  Besides that hasn't been real helpful.  Made a comment that he wanted to be hard to read...if you're town you really don't want to be that hard to read, you want people to read that you're town, only a scum would want to make it hard to tell if he's scum or town.  Def suspicious

8.  Maz - Not actively helping.  I know is pretty new, and seems to be playing like he did last game.  Same excuses, "nothing to say to help town," "don't want to say something to hurt town," etc.  He was town last game in acting like this.  Needless to say, you looking to not participate or really say your feelings is going to get you a scum feeling every time.  Know you're newer, but you should really start looking at what people do and not play hesitant 24/7 if you're town.  You may mistep and say something that is taken wrong way and get a lynch on you...but continuing to play as you do will just as well.  Suspicious

9.  Isocialism - Been quiet most of this game.  Last game I was very pleased with him, he was very active, more activity then I seen out of him before.  This game, not so much.   Feels Rafay and Lego are town so that takes less of my eyes on him

10.  CoD - Originally was on Lego's wagon for awhile on D2 (which i feel lego is town), then jumped on Kevin after some pressure started going Kevin's way, and Kevin looks to be town at this point.  So he's voted 2 town's this day the way I look at it, but jumped off Lego when there was 4 votes on him and still had a chance of being lynched, so his jumping off early when it was still a possibility means he's not got my attention too much.

 

So way my list is now:

 

1.  1cecream

2.  Canik

3.  Wolfpacks

4.  Maz

5.  3 way tie...seems SM/ABT both after FB, FB is after ABT.  

 

I will admit that my suspect list of 10, many I haven't focused as much on.  Looked back briefly, but need to go back more and analyze some of them more.  Many on this list of 10 are posting a lot less then others.  Not saying my 6 people I feel are more townish is 100% right, but it's my analysis so far of today and what's come out.

I cannot and will not be part of a lynch of Lego or Rafay.  I've said multiple times I believe Lego's RC after Lyner pointed it out for me D2, and I was suspicious of the quick votes on Rafay D1, and with him getting all the way up to I think 7 today...it makes it harder for me to believe it's 7 town on the wagon.  Not saying he can't be, as I don't have much from him to tell me one way or other, and am upset as everyone else with him never actually playing the game.  

 

You'll can call my vote pointless, but I am voting for who I think is most from my list, and 1cecream is next.  I think he's who people should look into, but at this point I don't see enough time to get enough people on that wagon.  But he's my number 1 at this point with Canik #2

 

Vote:  1cecream

[Preston]

Not much else new posted since my last, and after reading back posts I'm no closer to a vote choice - not that it seems it will matter with Rafay's wagon where it is. SM's vote jump onto finster does not seem to serve much purpose, even if Finster's vote was not very clearly spelled out - I would like to hear more on that at least.

And as for Lyner's post, much of that I can agree with - the surge of votes at the end was VERY peculiar as the two wagons tried to push against each other. Problem is determining what it should mean - I doubt we will be so lucky as for Rafay to flip scum (which would explain the surge in Kevin votes), but it's possible. And in the likely case that Rafay flips town... was Kevin merely another target, or scum protecting their own? We REALLY need to verify his claim more.

So I would put emphasis on a cop verifying KevinH sooner than later - if his result tomorrow is similarly "no result" as from N1, doubts will still linger - and even then it will not rule out the potential scenario of a third scum validating all three of them (Kevin, SM, third 'verifier'). We need someone independent to do the job.

Also we've lost our watcher already, remember? And as for doctors "checking" people... personally I would expect the doctor to be all over Kevin on the /chance/ he is a genuine claim - because if he is, he needs to be protected and not lost.

This day has certainly been very interesting in the last 24 hours...

-Preston

[Chaplain of death]

Mandy was the watcher unless there is multiple =(

I think finster is having a bit of fun since its unlikely another wagon will materialize. I wouldn't chalk his behavior up as scum. He was pretty blatent with the sarcasm by listing a reason of "i don't like you this game"

[Rhizoctonia]

Not much else new posted since my last, and after reading back posts I'm no closer to a vote choice - not that it seems it will matter with Rafay's wagon where it is. SM's vote jump onto finster does not seem to serve much purpose, even if Finster's vote was not very clearly spelled out - I would like to hear more on that at least.

And as for Lyner's post, much of that I can agree with - the surge of votes at the end was VERY peculiar as the two wagons tried to push against each other. Problem is determining what it should mean - I doubt we will be so lucky as for Rafay to flip scum (which would explain the surge in Kevin votes), but it's possible. And in the likely case that Rafay flips town... was Kevin merely another target, or scum protecting their own? We REALLY need to verify his claim more.

So I would put emphasis on a cop verifying KevinH sooner than later - if his result tomorrow is similarly "no result" as from N1, doubts will still linger - and even then it will not rule out the potential scenario of a third scum validating all three of them (Kevin, SM, third 'verifier'). We need someone independent to do the job.

Also we've lost our watcher already, remember? And as for doctors "checking" people... personally I would expect the doctor to be all over Kevin on the /chance/ he is a genuine claim - because if he is, he needs to be protected and not lost.

This day has certainly been very interesting in the last 24 hours...

-Preston

 

Posted some thoughts right before yours

[Lyner]

Oh I forgot about Manda

 

If we got Tracker and Watcher it is possible that there will be another ninja on scum side.

 

If Kevin is truly a tracker, he will be able to provide us with information for the next days.

[Sister Midnight]

Not much else new posted since my last, and after reading back posts I'm no closer to a vote choice - not that it seems it will matter with Rafay's wagon where it is. SM's vote jump onto finster does not seem to serve much purpose, even if Finster's vote was not very clearly spelled out - I would like to hear more on that at least.

 

I jumped on Finster because I think his levity is odd at this late moment of the day.  I don't have a lot to work on here.  I'm looking for weirdness, inactivity, and any clue about anyone.  What it boils down to is that I don't have a lot to work with and Finster's jump and his reasoning/sarcasm was the only flag I could point to.

[Ali bin Turban]

Pretty much what I told him on CN's game, KevinH is getting bitten back by his playstyle again and again. And again he's saved by a PR.

 

Still, he's to smart to let himself getting lynched just like that. If he were a scum he would make a roleclaim, I've no doubt about it. Maybe he's gambling (does he have anything to lose? worst case if he's challenged, he gets lynched anyway, but scum will know who has PR) but obviously he can be speaking truth...probably the best answer is not to rush anything(see on the next day if we have other tracker challenge his vote or if someone else has investigated him).

Worse thing about this situation is that we can't expect him to share his findings unless he's lucky and finds a mafia performing a kill, because otherwise he'd be letting everyone know who also has PR.

 

6.  ABT - Him and FB have been back in forth.  Is this a staged little fight to make sure they're not connected?  This whole game something has not let me really feel comfortable with ABT.  Wanted Lego who I believe is town, then switched to Kevin after I and others directed steam that way whose RC says town now.  Two votes on townies today IMO...him and FB going at it.

@Rhizo, you're being unfair now. That others in "after I and others directed steam..." were me too. I've posted 7 minutes after you, and those posts actually take a bit to write (at least for me). I could also sit and do nothing because I was not on Rafays bandwagon. At the same time you don't have any suspicion about Lego, who (correct me if I'm wrong) I don't remember talking about KevinH yet he jumped of the Rafay to KevinH the moment he felt some heat. He must truly be a confirmed townie in your eyes and can get away with anything.

At least you're voting on my other suspects.

 

unvote

vote 1ceCream

[Finster Baby]

Based off Kevin's Role claim:

VOTE: Ali bin Turban

Why? Because in this game, I don't like you and I want you dead.

WTF?  That's a total spam vote. 
 
UNVOTE:  RAFAY
VOTE: FINSTER BABY

It is not a spam vote. I have a beef with Ali, and I intend on pursuing it, unless PRs prove he's town.

[legoboyvdlp]

So... it is hard to know what to do. I still feel 1ceCream is just a rookie town. But...
Well, We have a few hours more yet.

[Finster Baby]

6.  ABT - Him and FB have been back in forth.  Is this a staged little fight to make sure they're not connected?  This whole game something has not let me really feel comfortable with ABT.  Wanted Lego who I believe is town, then switched to Kevin after I and others directed steam that way whose RC says town now.  Two votes on townies today IMO...him and FB going at it.

This is absolutely not a staged fight. I've been receiving the same bad vibes from AbT all game, and his not so subtle digs at me and baseless accusations against me have finally rubbed me the wrong way to the point were I'm voting for him. He's gone after 2 townies as well, Lego and now Kevin (who, even tho he's RC'ed Tracker bears watching), and I think will target me next. Samus also said he was abandoning a vote against AbT as nobody else was joining him. Samus must have more info, or more of a vibe.

If a PR investigates AbT and finds him town, I'll back down and offer apologies. Until then, I don't like him and I want him dead.

(Nothing personal of course. )

[Canik]

Canik - Involved on Rafay vote. Don't like his latest comment about "concrete" evidence. Just because Rafay is inactive and that's known doesn't mean scum, nor does it mean he can't be replaced. This is a habitual action of Rafay which isn't new this game, so it's not like he has tried to be inactive due to his role. There's a whole lot of "concrete" statement's I could make, they all mean as much as Rafay being inactive. Suspect #2

I didn't say it was evidence just that it was concrete (that he is inactive). What I meant to get at is that we have nothing concrete on anyone at all, so it's silly for Samus to criticize people voting for Rafay because there's nothing concrete on him. It's not like there are other people with concrete evidence against them to be voted on. If you're voting for anyone right now, you're doing it without concrete evidence.

As for it being D2, we have the same amount of mislynches we did yesterday. Thanks to the no-lynchers we got a whole extra day we wouldn't have had otherwise. I'm still not convinced you read & understand the free day math AbT posted. Either that or you're intentionally ignoring it because it throws a big kink into some of your arguments. It is still quasi-D1 for all intents and purposes.

[legoboyvdlp]

Lets just get rid of Doctor Rafay (see topic in Stargazer area), and get it over with. It's too late to start all these arguments now. You had all of Day 2 to do it and you start now?

Anyway, Day 3 we can expect PR RC... or maybe not as it is such a big game? That will help a lot.