894 replies to this topic

[Falzis]

want more Narsis?

to be honest this is similar to a few games ago where everyone seems to be playing it close to the chest. except for maybe Falzis, but i've got mixed feelings on the guy.

Yes we want more Narsis!

Could you tell me why you have mixed feelings? So I could know and others would know. Would help the town a lot.

VOTE COUNT
Falzis (3): Martino, Theophilos, KevinH
KevinH (2): Electric Mango, Narsis

Not Voting (7): sojourner, Nerau, Sir Jesus, partyin01, Falzis, Kaziocore, Aquinas

With 12 alive, 7 votes are needed to lynch.

Edited by molestargazer, 19 June 2009 - 04:10 PM.

[Falzis]

Wrong - I didn't say It's a scum tell because he's aggressive or because he's posting a lot. I said it's a scum tell, 'cause he's posts are often contradictory and more time than not confusing. I'm not sure how that can help us townies - ergo scum.

You're repeating assertions. Back it up with a blow by blow account. And you're the only one confused.

Yeah, that might be true if he didn't FoS or vote for half of all surviving players. So what does he think? Basically that every second person in the game is guilty or probably guilty!? That could as well be a tactic to draw attention away from him and his scum buddies ... My point is this - you can't claim a particular tactic of playing only for one side or the other.

If you think about it, why shouldn't I be suspicious of everyone? I don't know anyone's alignment except my own. I am sure I am townie. I'm not so sure about anybody else. Even if EM has defended me, I can only lean on the side of caution that he is more likely a townie than a scum.

He might be scum playing on the other side of scums that are breathing on my neck. I should know it can happen, since Kevin and Narsis did just that in the most recent previous Mafia game (though I died early but I did keep tabs on what was going on).

So what if I FoS people even half of the players? It's about putting pressure. It's about me saying hmm you look suspicious, defend yourself.

You can claim a particular tactic as playing for one side or the other, in terms of the probability and reasonableness of a scum or a town doing it.

[Theophilos]

You're repeating assertions. Back it up with a blow by blow account. And you're the only one confused.

Offcours I'm repeating my self, 'cause you keep missing the point ... 'nuff said.

I can't tell you how happy I am and will continue to be if I'm the only one confused ...

[Falzis]

I keep missing the point because you keep on escaping the fact that you haven't shown me what my "confusing" and "contradictory" posts are. I've explained the one pointed out by Martino and pointed by you on page 17. Are there any other posts you'd like me to explain?

Repeating your accusations without giving the opportunity for the accused to respond is unfair and untownie.

[KevinH]

It would be the fault of people who didn't post, react, and vote. And you are most certainly one of them.

I'm posting. I'm reacting. I'm voting.
This seems like another attempt to mislead.

Two more points

• Don't believe everything you read.
• If you reference something, reference it accurately.

"The appropriateness of this strategy has been much debated, but it generally comes down to two things: preserving favorable voting ratios ... or waiting for investigations." No Lynch on Mafia Wiki

My strategy of keeping more votes and waiting for an investigation is recognized as valid. Hmmm

[Martino]

I'm posting. I'm reacting. I'm voting.
This seems like another attempt to mislead.

Two more points

• Don't believe everything you read.
• If you reference something, reference it accurately.

"The appropriateness of this strategy has been much debated, but it generally comes down to two things: preserving favorable voting ratios ... or waiting for investigations." No Lynch on Mafia Wiki

My strategy of keeping more votes and waiting for an investigation is recognized as valid. Hmmm

And a few lines later it is shot down:

It has been argued that in the early stages of the game, if it is known that the Mafia has fewer members than the town, it can be a valid tactic, for those with a good knowledge of math at least, to let the night phase go and handle investigations. For example, if it is known that there are 15 Town and 4 Mafia, the odds of lynching a townie on day one with limited information are much higher, therefore giving an extra kill to the Mafia. However, this is not the case. Voting No Lynch in the early game causes the town to lose one possible lynch, so instead of having 3 chances to find the mafia, they only have 2 chances.

[molestargazer]

I'll do a vote count, then send out necessary prods. Look to the top of the page for your vote counts, which will continue there as they did D1.

PRODS ARE BEING SENT TO:
sojourner
Sir Jesus
partyin01
Kaziocore
Aquinas

Seriously, people, that's crap. Get posting.

Edited by molestargazer, 19 June 2009 - 04:14 PM.

[Electric Mango]

And a few lines later it is shot down:

Kevin blamed Falzis for trying to mislead. Looks like the pot calling the kettle black.

[Falzis]

I don't know Kevin's previous way previous games if when he voted No Lynch on D1, that he kept on continuing the discussion about its merits on D2. Can anyone who played with Kevin before tell me?

[Narsis]

Yes we want more Narsis!

Could you tell me why you have mixed feelings? So I could know and others would know. Would help the town a lot.

i like that you are posting a lot...but some of the things you are saying/how you are reacting is coming off as a little...off. maybe i'm just reading into too much. hence the mixed feelings.

as for Kevin...i know he has advocated his follow-the-cop strategy after day 1, but i don't really understand why he would continue to do so now. we lost our cop so what's the point of debating the no lynch strategy?

[Theophilos]

I think Kevin mentioned somewhere that there might be more than one cop or something along those lines. I think he didn't explain his thoughts further than that ...

[Narsis]

might being the keyword...

[sojourner]

This whole thing still is confusing to me but after reading and reading a couple of things seem to stick out...

Junkaholic said that we shouldn't lynch any body til the cop gets info on them, which looking back seems to make a strong case that we should have picked up the cop vibe from him. Junkaholic was against Kevin but wanted to lynch me. Knowing I am Town he did not obviously know who the scum were.

Nerau has said nothing one way or the other. Except for a couple of posts to explain game things and a 48 hour notice and a "Wow it was lucky " to kill the cop, there is nothing at all to go on. Very very quiet. It seems it may be that since Nerau knows about the game that silence is a way to not give anything away.

[KevinH]

Don't believe everything you read.

My point was that it's recognized as a possible strategy. It's debatable whether it is optimal.

I'm voting to lynch now. I will vote to lynch for the rest of the game.

I don't think there is a second cop. That was a failed attempt at humor.

I'm not playing follow the cop. I don't have strong feeling about anyone being scum but we haave to lynch somebody and I think Falzis is as good a choice as any. Convince me differently and I'll change my vote.

[Nerau]

Nerau has said nothing one way or the other. Except for a couple of posts to explain game things and a 48 hour notice and a "Wow it was lucky " to kill the cop, there is nothing at all to go on. Very very quiet. It seems it may be that since Nerau knows about the game that silence is a way to not give anything away.

ok ok enough said i have a little time to read the falzis kevinH argument

a few things i see
1. KevinH seems to be playing a very familar strategy and that is fine, since it has worked in the past, while jumping on falsiz with little reasoning may seem scummy, but with little to no evidence pressure voting may be the way to go at this time

2. falzis on the other hand counters Kevin saying that is reacting to votes, which seems to be a good thing in my opinion since if the player shows that they r not scummy then the player should react

i am sticking with kevin as his strategy seems to involve pressure forcing the opponent to slip up

that is just wat i got

correct if i am wrong

[Sir Jesus]

My gut feeling tells me that Falzis is not scum, for the simple fact that he has brought a lot of heat on himself by being active in his accusations. I really feel that this is townie-like, he is using our only source of power (discussion+voting) as townies to bring information to the fore-front. This will...
a) Reduce his survivability
Assist the town / his faction

Point is ridden with the WIFOM effect, simply because all of his conversation could be an effort to mislead the town as EM has been known to do in the past. However, point a) is simply not compatable with a scummy mindset, simply because the mafia's numbers are smaller and their members' lives are more precious to their faction. All in all, I would peg Falzis as a townie.

I can't quite put my finger on in, but Theophilos gives me a bad feeling. If I can pinpoint what it is, I'll share it.


By the way, sorry about my lack of posting. I've had several MRI's and CT scans, there's an abcess in my sinus cavity and I recently had a (first) seizure.

[sojourner]

Sorry to hear that ...sounds painful. Hope you feel better soon...and this is just a game not important enough to worry about..just get well. sojourner

[Electric Mango]

Get well soon Sir Jesus. Mango is rooting for you all the way!

I'm glad someone else agrees with my Falzis theory. I just think he's giving up way too much information and putting too much of himself out there to be scum. I've always thought that scum would try to just hang back and lurk in the shadows, hoping to avoid the glaring spotlight until the time was too late to stop them. Of course Falzis may be playing me for a fool but I just get a good feeling about him.


Falzis and Kevinh are scum.

I did this in case there is a psychologist. If there is, he will be able to ask the great mod Mole if this statement is true. As it stands now, Kevin and Falzis have the only votes. As it's going now ( no it's not set in stone) one of them will be lynched and if there is a shrink than we will know the identity of the other as well. Never hurts to cover your bases.

[Falzis]

Narsis is still a bit vaguer than I'm used to from him so I'm not enlightened any further from his recent postings. But he asks good questions though.

Nerau is just as shadowy as ever. His statement saying "i am sticking with kevin as his strategy seems to involve pressure forcing the opponent to slip up" is completely laughable as I don't see Kevin's strategy as one of putting pressure to force opponents to slip up. If ever, his current strategy is to capitalize on anyone's slip up that he wasn't the cause of (due to his "pressuring" which I definitely don't see) and to lie low.

Martino is the one I would consider who is using pressure voting as a strategy. He was the one who brought the heat on me BUT he hasn't bought Kevin's statement hook, line and sinker (by pointing out disputable things) unlike...

Theophilos. He hasn't brought anything new to the table and just seems to be a yes man of Kevin.


******


My most likely to be scum list right now would be:

1. KevinH
2. Theophilos
3. Nerau
4. Narsis
5. sojourner
6. Martino
7. Aquinas
8. Sir Jesus
9. Electric Mango

KevinH has been muddling the discussion with the No Lynch debate since D1 and trying to portray Pro-Lynch on D1 townies as scums, which is misleading if not disingenuous to say the least. Plus jumping on my wagon putting me at a L-1 vote (if no majority, half majority which is 4 - kevin knows this). And he is the veteran player I've been alluding to in my past posts. I think he correctly guessed junk as the cop due to his role fishing posts.

Theophilos because of walking step by step with KevinH with little added value, if any. Lied low in D1. Jumping on my wagon with little ambiguous reasons (which makes it hard for me to defend, if you are town putting pressure on people you give them opportunity to defend themselves).

Nerau is very mysterious. His recent (incorrect) assessment of KevinH's is off. Call it gut feel or intuition but the main reason I'm suspicious of him is because he auspiciously posted right after the Night Kill, and with a nonchalant reply ("wow that was lucky" instead of "oh my god our cop is dead that was one lucky kill"). It suggests to me that maybe he was active when the NK was sent and that his reply is not indicative of concern for townie welfare. I know it might be a stretch but I'm just putting this out here.

Narsis is unusually not as talkative and articulate as before so I'm putting him here due to meta game suspicions. He has been keeping his opinions close to his chest and even when prodded is a bit vague.

sojourner because of my original suspicions of him. Not much to go by but that's also the reason I think he's scum due to playing under the radar. New players to Mafia would be very interested and participative in the game.

Martino is actually more townie than scummy in my perception. His voting for me is both townie and scummy since it could be a strategic pressure on me (which I appreciate btw since I've been the one putting the pressure before his post) or it could be an opportunistic jump on an easy person to argue voting for (since I have lots of posts to analyze). But the clincher is his engagement of not only my posts but others as well. He has consistently called out KevinH since D1 on disputable statements. Not giving a free pass to KevinH is definitely pro townie for me.

I peg Aquinas, Sir Jesus, and EM as most townie because of their agreement and defense of me since I know I'm townie and it's unscummy to not jump on my wagon right now because I am an easy pick with all the posts they can use to argue for my head. But I'm not giving them a free pass so I'm still cautious. Their activity is good and have substance too. I'd like for Aquinas to post more though.

This is not full proof since statistically one of the top four people I've listed could still be townie and I am reading them wrong. But nevertheless I think that at least two of the top four people I've listed are scum.

(no reads on party01 and Kaziocore, nothing really to get by)

Sorry for the long post.

tl;dr

Kevin and those in his camp are suspicious (except for Martino), Narsis is cryptic, sojourner is lying low, Aquinas, Sir Jesus and EM are doing fine. party01 and Kaziocore need to get here immediately!

[Kaziocore]

(no reads on party01 and Kaziocore, nothing really to get by)

Then it turns out that one of us were mafias

I can't believe how hard this game could be. I think most of the time you win this game through luck.