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[TW-06] Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix Mafia - Mafia Win!

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Ok - lessee here.

 

Chaplain of Death: I have no idea, really.

Finster Baby: Town - RC Hagrid, 2-shot Roleblocker. I used my 2nd shot on KevinH last night, no result.

FS108: Was neighbor with MK and WP. Could potentially be scum, but I give him 60% town for now.

KevinH: Lean scum based on inactivity, but only a bit, as if he had a night role I suspect he would have run with it and I'd have blocked him.

LordSunday: Town - Investigated by cop, was framed by KitKat.

Lyner: Lean town. He's been scum hunting, lead wagon on KitKat

Rhizoctonia: Town. RC Cop. I believe him.

SeaBeeGipson: Not sure. Lean scum, based on posts and voting, but could flip flop.

Wolfpacks: Town - Investigated by cop

Yehom: I have no idea, really.

 

So based on 4to 5 scum, and 2 dead, the remaining scum are between CoD, KevinH, SBG and Yehom. My educated guess is 2 or 3 of those 4 are scum.

 

Not ready to FOS yet.

 

Also, I will likely need to be replaced. I leave for vacation on Saturday and won't have much access.

 

 

I RC doctor, not cop fyi

 

Also, you bring up an interesting point.  I have believed you are town, and if I go off that, that means Kevin likely isn't scum if you're telling the truth you RB'd him.  I except town to have a Ninja (has every game), and the only scenario that I can think of on how my protection wouldn't of worked is I was RB'd.  So, if we are going off the idea there is 2 scum left, if you RB'd Kevin and he was the ninja, no kill would happen, if he was the person who RB'd me, then my action would of went through and no kill would of happened. 

 

So that leaves a few scenario's

 

1.  Kevin isn't scum

2.  There's more then 2 more scum and you RB'd the scum who didn't do the kill or stop my action

3.  You're lying about your role and are scum

 

Why did you pick Kevin?  Just curious, as he did RC, though as I stated, I'm not sold on his backup doctor role.

 

So that leaves me with you're both town or you're both scum and this was a last ditch effort with things not going your way to try to eliminate you both from suspicion and put it elsewhere.  What worries me in this scenario is not really you, but the fact you're not linked to Kevin who just a post before was my number 1 suspect.  It's worrisome a bit.

 

Unless someone has another idea how my protection couldn't of worked, the only one I can think of with the strongman gone is a RB ability.  So again, if you RB'd Kevin and he was scum, there shouldn't of been a kill if there's 2 scum left, because you would of either blocked the ninja or the person who prevented my kill.  

but the fact you're now linked to Kevin who just a post before was my number 1 suspect.

 

My sentence was meant to say now instead of not, can't edit so posting correction here

So those who have yet to RC anything.

 

CoD

Yehom

Lyner

 

 

Recent ones from end of yesterday

 

Kevinh - Nurse, backup role if doctor is killed

SBG - Hider

 

Both Kevin and SBG's roles are easy for a scum to use tbh.  

 

I need to look back and see interactions as well with Kitkat and others.

 

Though I believe LS for time being, so far everyone has had a role.  Though there very well could be a VT, it seems like a pretty role mass game.  

 

Lyner has been on my radar for awhile, but gains some town points starting the lynch of Kitkat.  I said that at least one of the people adamantly trying to defend the kill on Isocialism was a scum trying to gain town points as they knew he was town, and I was right with Kitkat.  Would 2 scum do the same thing?  Not sure, but as I type right now Lyner has gained some town points in last day.  Though he still tried to help Kitkat force a RC from me near end of the day.  

 

 

Though I believe LS for time being, so far everyone has had a role. Though there very well could be a VT, it seems like a pretty role mass game.

 

If you're insinuating you still think I may be scum, then you're trying to say that scum has both a tailor and framer. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I'm pretty much on the confirmed list. Speaking of, I agree with the lists above about who the confirmed townies are versus not.

 

Yesterday I started with my suspicion divided between Yehom and KevinH. I didn't vote, but that was because I didn't want the day to end early though it already had. Today I'm going to wait to hear from these two before I get too ahead of myself. If there are only 2 scum left and Kevin was one, then we either shouldn't have had a kill or Rhizo shouldn't have had a fail protecting KC.

 

Though I believe LS for time being, so far everyone has had a role. Though there very well could be a VT, it seems like a pretty role mass game.

 

If you're insinuating you still think I may be scum, then you're trying to say that scum has both a tailor and framer. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think I'm pretty much on the confirmed list. Speaking of, I agree with the lists above about who the confirmed townies are versus not.

 

Yesterday I started with my suspicion divided between Yehom and KevinH. I didn't vote, but that was because I didn't want the day to end early though it already had. Today I'm going to wait to hear from these two before I get too ahead of myself. If there are only 2 scum left and Kevin was one, then we either shouldn't have had a kill or Rhizo shouldn't have had a fail protecting KC.

 

 

 

I stand corrected.  I wasn't insinuating you were scum, just that wasn't sure.  But as you point out, since you did come up with two different results and we now have removed the framer I would agree you're confirmed town since scum wouldn't have both a framer and tailor.  

 

I want to hear from Kevin as well.  Like I mentioned in first post today, he was my first thought for scum, but now with FB's reveal it makes it impossible for him to be scum unless there's a 3rd scum or both him and FB are both.

 

Going off the idea that FB is saying the truth which means Kevin is town likely, we have at least 1 scum who was part of lynch of Kitkat, as that only leaves the 2 neighbors and CoD who didn't, so CoD imo is the only one who didn't vote that has the possibility of being scum (not saying he for sure is however). 

 

So my confirmed town:

 

Me

FS108

LS

Wolfpacks

 

Only counting confirmed, we have a 1/3rd chance of picking right today not calculating anything else into the number.

Ok - lessee here.

 

Chaplain of Death: I have no idea, really.

Finster Baby: Town - RC Hagrid, 2-shot Roleblocker. I used my 2nd shot on KevinH last night, no result.

FS108: Was neighbor with MK and WP. Could potentially be scum, but I give him 60% town for now.

KevinH: Lean scum based on inactivity, but only a bit, as if he had a night role I suspect he would have run with it and I'd have blocked him.

LordSunday: Town - Investigated by cop, was framed by KitKat.

Lyner: Lean town. He's been scum hunting, led wagon on KitKat

Rhizoctonia: Town. RC Cop. I believe him.

SeaBeeGipson: Not sure. Lean scum, based on posts and voting, but could flip flop.

Wolfpacks: Town - Investigated by cop

Yehom: I have no idea, really.

 

So based on 4to 5 scum, and 2 dead, the remaining scum are between CoD, KevinH, SBG and Yehom. My educated guess is 2 or 3 of those 4 are scum.

 

Not ready to FOS yet.

 

Also, I will likely need to be replaced. I leave for vacation on Saturday and won't have much access.

 

So based off what you we just mentioned and discussed, I would say these are the most likely lynch options for today:

 

CoD

Lyner

SBG

Yehom

 

Given the reveal that KitKat was indeed a framer and that KC was indeed the cop, that confirms WP without a doubt.

Technically, I would say that means the only 100% beyond-a-shadow-of-a-doubt towns are him and I.

Those who have RCed with no counter and are thus in the very high town percentile (80%+ chance of town) are Rhizo and FB.

FS gets town points because of his neighbor role and we already found the scum among the neighbors. There's a chance that there could've been 2 neighbor scums, and with WP confirmed that means if it is that way he'd have to be the scum. On D2 when that entire event unfolded keep in mind both FS and MK were on WP's wagon. Scum team perhaps? Unlikely, but that's why I hesitate to confirm town him.

Kevin is on hold because of the events of last night (Finster's block)

I didn't target anyone last night.

I didn't fear id be targeted as scum have their hands full with a cop and doctor. I view my role was fairly pointless. The only benefits it has is the somewhat confirmation ability it can have if I don't die and I can hide myself if I'm targeted.

I honestly didn't want to risk hiding behind the wrong person and ending up dead. Hiding behind WP would've been pointless as I already confirmed him in my mind and neither of us i felt would've been a target.

Hope my thought process makes sense. This is a very new role for me.

I got nothing. was a little suspicious of kitkat since his activity shifted so heavily but honestly wasn't sure. I can claim if thats what you guys really want but we've pushed the "no mass roleclaiming" rule to the breaking point and beyond in this game with the amount of random claiming that has taken place. As for moving forward, I'm honestly surprised by the revelation that Kevin is town considering how inactive hes been. Leaves me wondering about Lyner and Yehom, though I know I'm likely high on peoples lists as well. 

Now that Kitkat has been revealed to be a Framer, I'd like to revisit something that we've discussed before. I personally feel that scum wouldn't successfully frame a random person and then not frame that person again after word got out that he was suspected of being scum. Think about it, say LS is a VT like he claimed and got framed successfully. Once that information got out, wouldn't it be logical for scum to continue to frame LS to ensure that the results would be consistent? Especially seeing how the first inspection that LS got was from a JOAT, so scum could easily predict that the cop would probably double check. To me it's more logical that LS got caught with his pants down by iSoc and scum tried to cover up by framing their scum buddy to come out as innocent if a cop would inspect him. 

@Rhizo: Yes, you're the doc, not the cop. I my fingers didn't do what my brain told it. I blocked KevinH because I honestly never saw his RC. Your mention of it is the first I recall seeing it, and if I had I'd have likely picked someone else to attempt to RB.

 

That doesn't remove him from my suspect list, tho.

 

As for my town bona fides, I would expect that my active scum hunting and RC are enough to put me on anyone's town list.

Now that Kitkat has been revealed to be a Framer, I'd like to revisit something that we've discussed before. I personally feel that scum wouldn't successfully frame a random person and then not frame that person again after word got out that he was suspected of being scum. Think about it, say LS is a VT like he claimed and got framed successfully. Once that information got out, wouldn't it be logical for scum to continue to frame LS to ensure that the results would be consistent? Especially seeing how the first inspection that LS got was from a JOAT, so scum could easily predict that the cop would probably double check. To me it's more logical that LS got caught with his pants down by iSoc and scum tried to cover up by framing their scum buddy to come out as innocent if a cop would inspect him. 

 

We've visited this already. The role of KitKat is what confirms me a townie.

 

A framer can only produce negative results, meaning KitKat can only make people look like scum, but cannot in any way make someone look town.

A lawyer can only make people look town, but cannot make someone look scum.

A tailor will flip any result, meaning they can make a scum look town and a town look scum.

 

Since KitKat came out as a framer, it is now known they can only make negative results. This means, since I have received two differing results, that I had to have been framed N1 when iSoc investigated me. The only way this isn't the case is if the scum team has both a framer and a tailor,  which is impossibly unlikely.

 

With WP though, it's worth noting he "could" have a deceptive power attached that makes him look town as scum. However I don't think this is substantial enough at the moment to give him any suspicion over.

We've visited this already. The role of KitKat is what confirms me a townie.   A framer can only produce negative results, meaning KitKat can only make people look like scum, but cannot in any way make someone look town. A lawyer can only make people look town, but cannot make someone look scum. A tailor will flip any result, meaning they can make a scum look town and a town look scum.

 

You haven't been playing recently then, because last time there was a scum Framer, he could frame a scum member to turn up innocent he could investigated by a townie role. So no, Kitkat didn't clear your name, he incriminated your more if anything 

 

@@The Warrior Can we get a confirmation how the Framer works in conjunction with framing other another mafia member? Do they still turn up innocent if the mafia member is framed?

  • Author

Assume the following from the mafia wiki:

 

 

A Framer may choose to frame a player during the night, causing that target to investigate as Guilty (or whichever result is unfavorable) to Cops. For obvious reasons, this role is almost always aligned with scum.

 

 

Variations

The most common variant of Framer is Tailor, which can also target scum to have them investigate favorably to Cops. The name comes from the role tailoring investigative results to the user's liking.

Assume the following from the mafia wiki:

 

 

 

A Framer may choose to frame a player during the night, causing that target to investigate as Guilty (or whichever result is unfavorable) to Cops. For obvious reasons, this role is almost always aligned with scum.

 

 

Variations

The most common variant of Framer is Tailor, which can also target scum to have them investigate favorably to Cops. The name comes from the role tailoring investigative results to the user's liking.

 

Hence Yehom why I make the very legitimate claim that I am the only person who with solid proof is 100% confirmed town. Care to lynch me still?

whoa im sure i voted last day and was about to check and someone had already hit the hammer, good kill though, LS you questioning my role is that a little payback for my vote on you, i was cleared by a cop and a known scum voted for me, but i gotta say im still a little suspicious of my other nieghbour who also voted for me

Trust me, I'm a bit suspicious of his comments and actions, but they seem rather of a confused player then anything.  I just doubt TW would have 2 out of 3 neighbors as scum...possibly if there was 4 neighbors.  I could be wrong, but I don't see it, and the fact I highly doubt there isn't a ninja, and they must have someone who can block roles, assuming may a JOAT, which worries me if they a vig still left to use.  So given those facts, unless there's another neighbor scum who also has a second role, then he's not really on my radar though every time he posts he makes me wonder.


I didn't target anyone last night.
I didn't fear id be targeted as scum have their hands full with a cop and doctor. I view my role was fairly pointless. The only benefits it has is the somewhat confirmation ability it can have if I don't die and I can hide myself if I'm targeted.
I honestly didn't want to risk hiding behind the wrong person and ending up dead. Hiding behind WP would've been pointless as I already confirmed him in my mind and neither of us i felt would've been a target.
Hope my thought process makes sense. This is a very new role for me.

 

 

Though your reasoning is outragious, I still am still not sold on the role being in this game

I want to believe FB, and doing so he basically proves Kevin is town.

 

That leaves in my mind,

 

Yehom

CoD

Lyner

SBG

 

 

So if I take FB for his word, we have a likely 50% chance of being right today, up from the 1/3 I mentioned earlier.  I want to believe FB.

 

These all have had things I've felt suspicious of, and things they've gained some town points.  But at these point, it's down to these 4 in my eyes.

I'm doing some reviewing of those 4.  This popped out a bit to me.  SBG switched his vote to SLMK very close to the end.  At the time he switched, the vote was 6 SLMK 6 WP, and SLMK was the one who would be lynched anyway because he was the first to 6 votes.  Could very well be a scum realizing there was no saving him or worth staying on the lynch of a town so we switched right at the end to lynch his partner.  His vote didn't change the outcome of the day, SLMK would of been lynched with reaching 6 first.  

 

 

Woah, SbG shifted at late moment.

Possibility of scum slip.

 

 

This was posted by SLMK right after SBG changed.  It's odd for SLMK to make such claim right near the end.  To me this can look like SLMK wanted to put distance between each other, and him calling SBG out would maybe help less suspicion put SBG's way later on.

 

 

Just some snipits I'm gathering as I get time to read back.  

 

 

LS you questioning my role is that a little payback for my vote on you, i was cleared by a cop and a known scum voted for me, but i gotta say im still a little suspicious of my other nieghbour who also voted for me

 

I wasn't as much questioning your role as just posting out possibilities. At this point I would be very surprised if you were scum, and I trust your word because of exactly what you stated. Don't think it was payback, in the post above that I had you in my 90-100% town bracket.

 

 

 

I want to believe FB, and doing so he basically proves Kevin is town.

 

That leaves in my mind,

 

Yehom

CoD

Lyner

SBG

 

So if I take FB for his word, we have a likely 50% chance of being right today, up from the 1/3 I mentioned earlier. I want to believe FB.

 

I agree with this assessment and this list. At this point we're down to most likely 2 scum. Though it wouldn't be preferred, a mislynch won't cause the town to lose, unless:

 

 

 

I could be wrong, but I don't see it, and the fact I highly doubt there isn't a ninja, and they must have someone who can block roles, assuming may a JOAT, which worries me if they a vig still left to use.

 

When I voted iSoc, it was because I thought he a scum JOAT. This possibility is very real and the scum may be saving that power for later if it can turn the tide in their favor. So today we should have some extra caution with voting habits and not hammer someone 48 hours before the actual deadline. That was 2 days of info we lost out on...

 

 

I'm doing some reviewing of those 4.  This popped out a bit to me.  SBG switched his vote to SLMK very close to the end.  At the time he switched, the vote was 6 SLMK 6 WP, and SLMK was the one who would be lynched anyway because he was the first to 6 votes.  Could very well be a scum realizing there was no saving him or worth staying on the lynch of a town so we switched right at the end to lynch his partner.  His vote didn't change the outcome of the day, SLMK would of been lynched with reaching 6 first.  

 

 

Woah, SbG shifted at late moment.

Possibility of scum slip.

 

 

This was posted by SLMK right after SBG changed.  It's odd for SLMK to make such claim right near the end.  To me this can look like SLMK wanted to put distance between each other, and him calling SBG out would maybe help less suspicion put SBG's way later on.

 

 

Just some snipits I'm gathering as I get time to read back.  

 

I don't know if I had quoted that before, but I had noticed that and though technically it would give SBG town points as you made note it could easily have been a scum partner trying his best to make sure a fellow scum was seen as town. We have a lot of time to decide however, and I still am waiting to hear from Kevin, perhaps even FS given the possible (yet unlikely) neighbor situation.

 

 

Leaves me wondering about Lyner and Yehom, though I know I'm likely high on peoples lists as well. 
 

 

Can you elaborate more? 

 

 

 

This was posted by SLMK right after SBG changed.  It's odd for SLMK to make such claim right near the end.  To me this can look like SLMK wanted to put distance between each other, and him calling SBG out would maybe help less suspicion put SBG's way later on.
 

 

Could also be a scum trying to bring a town down upon his death. Depends how you look at it.

 

Though your reasoning is outragious, I still am still not sold on the role being in this game

Can you rephrase this? I don't quite understand as I'm reading it "My reasoning is outrageous, but you are sold the role is in the game." I think its the "but" that is throwing me off.

 

 

 

I want to believe FB, and doing so he basically proves Kevin is town.
 

 

So, with this logic; we would assume KevinH's RC is legit. A nurse would confirm a doctor's existence. Therefore, without a counterclaim, you would be 100% confirm town. Alongside Lord Sunday (unless scum JoAT had a tailor ability); and Wolfpacks. 

 

As far as FS possibly being scum; with how Role-Heavy this game is, I could believe 2 scum,1 town neighboring roles. Though unlikely, the possibility exists. I would put FS near the bottom of my suspect list, but still on it.

 

 

 

We have a lot of time to decide however, and I still am waiting to hear from Kevin, perhaps even FS given the possible (yet unlikely) neighbor situation.
 

 

One has been extremely quiet, the other makes zero sense. Myself, however, am more concerned with hearing from CoD on his slight unannounced FoS to Lyner and Yehom.

 

Leaves me wondering about Lyner and Yehom, though I know I'm likely high on peoples lists as well. 
 

 

Can you elaborate more? 

 

 

 

This was posted by SLMK right after SBG changed.  It's odd for SLMK to make such claim right near the end.  To me this can look like SLMK wanted to put distance between each other, and him calling SBG out would maybe help less suspicion put SBG's way later on.
 

 

Could also be a scum trying to bring a town down upon his death. Depends how you look at it.

 

Yes, but find it strange you were the only one called out, and you were very late to come off WP wagon when it looked like it was over for SLMK.  It could be looked at either way, but I tend to look at it more of a scum trying to help out another scum by mentioning/suspecting them before they die.  I'm not saying I'm sold you're 100% scum, but I've been pretty vocal you're one of a few top suspects and this is something I picked up on as I try to catch things.  I don't see any new evidence likely to be brought forward today outside of what has already been said, so it's analyzing everything of the people left I think is scum

 

Though your reasoning is outragious, I still am still not sold on the role being in this game

Can you rephrase this? I don't quite understand as I'm reading it "My reasoning is outrageous, but you are sold the role is in the game." I think its the "but" that is throwing me off.

 

It should say, though your reasoning ISN'T outrageous, I am still not sold on the role being in game.  What I mean is that if you're telling the truth about your role, your explanation you've said for not using your role last night isn't outrageous, I think it was logical for you not to since it was likely going to be me or the cop who was targeted.  They had an ability to allow them to go after the cop, otherwise I expect I would of been dead.  That being said, you're role in itself is another example of a easy role for a scum to RC.  You revealed yesterday you visited WP the night before who you knew at the time of your RC that was investigated by KC and found to be town, and he  was pretty much a confirmed town before that.  

 

 

I want to believe FB, and doing so he basically proves Kevin is town.
 

 

So, with this logic; we would assume KevinH's RC is legit. A nurse would confirm a doctor's existence. Therefore, without a counterclaim, you would be 100% confirm town. Alongside Lord Sunday (unless scum JoAT had a tailor ability); and Wolfpacks. 

 

As far as FS possibly being scum; with how Role-Heavy this game is, I could believe 2 scum,1 town neighboring roles. Though unlikely, the possibility exists. I would put FS near the bottom of my suspect list, but still on it.

 

Yes, if I go with believing FB which I've been pretty comfortable with for a few days now that he blocked KevinH, then it pretty much confirms Kevin is town because 2 roles had to be used last night to kill KC as I mentioned the strongman is dead.  The only way that couldn't be is if there's a 3rd scum still remaining, or FB is lying.  Basically it's either FB/Kevin are both town or both Scum IMO.  And leaning more town simply because of FB.

 

If he is a confirmed Nurse, that technically doesn't confirm me as town.  There could be a nurse without a doctor present, whereas he's basically a VT townie.  That being said, I don't think anyone's going to challenge the idea there's no doctor unless a scum's last ditch effort.  There's been a doctor in every TW's game, and it's a pretty much standard role in every game I've played outside of known setup games that Kevin has ran.  

 

If you're suggesting that FS108 could still be a scum neighbor then you would have to be saying there's a 3rd scum, or not only is he a neighbor but he also has another role as either a Ninja or another role like a RB or a JOAT that also blocked me.  There has to be someone who prevented my kill, and another who killed KC...so that means a scum neighbor with a bonus role or another scum which means 3 scum are left.  

We have a lot of time to decide however, and I still am waiting to hear from Kevin, perhaps even FS given the possible (yet unlikely) neighbor situation.
 

 

One has been extremely quiet, the other makes zero sense. Myself, however, am more concerned with hearing from CoD on his slight unannounced FoS to Lyner and Yehom.

 

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