864 replies to this topic

[Lyner]

Good! I want to know your opinion about my curious findings last night, Kevin.

 

 

I'm Arthur Weasley, an Order of the Phoenix Voyeur

 

Last night I'm keeping tabs on Rhizo and I did not see anything.

 

Rhizo claimed that he protected KC yesterday, yet KC was still killed. Mafia's 1 shot strongman is dead, if anything can stop Rhizo's power, I must've seen it

 

One probable scenario is that Rhizo lied, he isn't the doctor. And by extension, Kevin also lied about the nurse role.
 

I've thought this through and there are some believable points and doubts on this senario. The pros:

- As far as we can see, towns have so much powerful PRs: JoAT, Cop, and RB, compared to scums' confirmed ones: Framer and 1-Shot Strongarm. Put doctor and nurse and IMO town's too powerful.

- Everything about Rhizo's behaviour since yesterday makes sense. He and Kitkat are the most suspicious targets beside iSoc. Therefore the best move for him is to discredit iSoc as much as he can, which he did early D3. The next move would probably be to distance himself from Kitkat because the scums know that both iSoc and LS are townies, so one of them can frame the other the next day (Just like Rhizo did to Kitkat).

- I haven't found any other compelling scenario that would lead to my result showing nothing AND how Rhizo failed to protect KC. Strongarm is no more. Even if scum have roleblocks, they can't roleblock both me and Rhizo. If they blocked Rhizo then I'd know it. If they blocked me then Rhizo'd have saved KC. FB roleblocked Kevin so that possibility is also out.

 

The cons:

- Claiming doctor with a flavor name is pretty risky, Nymphadora is one of the highlights in the fifth book, I think?

- Some role modifier I'm not familiar with might be tampering with our results. Tell me if you think up something.

 

 

For those who doubt me, I think I've showed my townieness by doing the best moves for the last 3 days: helping the scum MK wagon rolling, trying to avoid the town vig kill (although failed), and personally starting the kill on scum Kitkat.

 

The simplest scenario would be that both Rhizo and Kevins are scum and the game is solved. If you want to complicate it you could kill me first to ascertain my role. The scum-town ratio is probably 2-8 or 3-7; we can afford some casualties.

[Yehom]

It does explain why Rhizo was playing so aggressively for a Doctor. I already did have suspicions on Kevin, because his role claim was pretty weak and seeing the context of the game, it wouldn't make sense to have both a Doctor and a Nurse like Lyner said. It would make town too powerful, especially seeing how Cankles didn't have a x-shot modifier. At this point I don't know whether Rhizo is in on it or not. Yeah the voyeur thing makes sense, but why risk role claiming Doctor if there is a possibility of a real Doctor in the game? I'm still not sure what to make of that, however Kevin is most likely scum in my book.  

[SeaBeeGipson]

It does explain why Rhizo was playing so aggressively for a Doctor. I already did have suspicions on Kevin, because his role claim was pretty weak and seeing the context of the game, it wouldn't make sense to have both a Doctor and a Nurse like Lyner said. It would make town too powerful, especially seeing how Cankles didn't have a x-shot modifier. At this point I don't know whether Rhizo is in on it or not. Yeah the voyeur thing makes sense, but why risk role claiming Doctor if there is a possibility of a real Doctor in the game? I'm still not sure what to make of that, however Kevin is most likely scum in my book.  

It still doesn't solve the role block.
If Kevin was roleblocked by FB (unless you also don't believe that meaning 3 scum remain; Rhizo, Kevin, FB), the kill couldn't have been the responsibility of Kevin without a strongarm. As far as not seeing anything; we either are at the crossroads of Lyner lying, or Rhizo is a ninja.

Surprisingly you two jumped pretty quick to try and disclaim a doctor role.
For two people in the same boat as me (nowhere near confirmed); you two pick 2 nearly confirmed townies?

Beyond that a Voyeur would see nothing if your target was Rhizo. However if your target was KC you'd have seen. The voyeur finds the target not the one responsible.
Because of that, I can somewhat believer Lyner here but Yehom's quick agreement to this has me concerned with that small unannounced FoS he has. As if he's trying to feel for a wagon to start.

You can't seriously try to make us believe there isn't a doctor?

[Finster Baby]

I used my RB on KevinH, however, I received no indication that my RB succeeded, so I can only surmise that KevinH did nothing last night.

[Yehom]

Surprisingly you two jumped pretty quick to try and disclaim a doctor role.

Where do you see me disclaiming the Doctor? I'm saying there is a possibility that Rhizo is lying, but it doesn't add up either way. If I'm discrediting someone, it's Kevin 

[LordSunday]

 

It does explain why Rhizo was playing so aggressively for a Doctor. I already did have suspicions on Kevin, because his role claim was pretty weak and seeing the context of the game, it wouldn't make sense to have both a Doctor and a Nurse like Lyner said. It would make town too powerful, especially seeing how Cankles didn't have a x-shot modifier. At this point I don't know whether Rhizo is in on it or not. Yeah the voyeur thing makes sense, but why risk role claiming Doctor if there is a possibility of a real Doctor in the game? I'm still not sure what to make of that, however Kevin is most likely scum in my book.  

It still doesn't solve the role block.
If Kevin was roleblocked by FB (unless you also don't believe that meaning 3 scum remain; Rhizo, Kevin, FB), the kill couldn't have been the responsibility of Kevin without a strongarm. As far as not seeing anything; we either are at the crossroads of Lyner lying, or Rhizo is a ninja.

Surprisingly you two jumped pretty quick to try and disclaim a doctor role.
For two people in the same boat as me (nowhere near confirmed); you two pick 2 nearly confirmed townies?

Beyond that a Voyeur would see nothing if your target was Rhizo. However if your target was KC you'd have seen. The voyeur finds the target not the one responsible.
Because of that, I can somewhat believer Lyner here but Yehom's quick agreement to this has me concerned with that small unannounced FoS he has. As if he's trying to feel for a wagon to start.

You can't seriously try to make us believe there isn't a doctor?

 

 

Keep in mind this is the second time that Yehom has jumped after someone rather quickly. Earlier in the day he went for me with the framer thing (yet again). Now combined with going after Rhizo/Kevin, I'm rather suspicious.

 

As for Lyner's comment, I think he's halfway there with sus on Kevin, but Rhizo? If Rhizo's scum that would be quite surprising and would be difficult to work with.

Either way, Yehom has once more moved up a bit on my list. We'll see what Rhizo/Kevin have to say about Lyner's words before I address their reputations in my eyes.

[Lyner]

Voyeur is a kind of watcher, but it sees the kind of action instead of the person, aka investigation, protection, etc.

The dilemma here is that one of Rhizo or me lied, because of the contradicting statements:
1. Rhizo saved KC, but scum kills went through. Either someone blocked his ability or scum strong armed KC. The latter is improbable.
2. If Rhizo got blocked, I'd have seen it. I didn't.

About Kevin, I agree that his RC is suspicious, but that wasn't my point. I'm assuming that Rhizo is scum, and therefore Kevin's nurse role doesn't make sense as there is no doctor

[LordSunday]

Voyeur is a kind of watcher, but it sees the kind of action instead of the person, aka investigation, protection, etc.

The dilemma here is that one of Rhizo or me lied, because of the contradicting statements:
1. Rhizo saved KC, but scum kills went through. Either someone blocked his ability or scum strong armed KC. The latter is improbable.
2. If Rhizo got blocked, I'd have seen it. I didn't.

About Kevin, I agree that his RC is suspicious, but that wasn't my point. I'm assuming that Rhizo is scum, and therefore Kevin's nurse role doesn't make sense as there is no doctor

 

Ok... So if Kevin is lynched today and his role is revealed as nurse, the assumption can and will be made that Rhizo is in fact the Doctor as he claims. If he pops scum or otherwise, we will know the possibility of Rhizo lying will exist. I don't want to jump to conclusions about a doctor lying when there's a secondary role that could be in play which can help to prove or disprove your claims.

[Rhizoctonia]

Well after reading Lyner's post I was surprised I was like damn, the scum really are going all in.  But it didn't make sense to me why a scum would try to pull this off today, as even if Lyner is scum and was able to knock me off, once I'm dead and found to be the doctor, he's dead.  I mean scum are in a bad spot, but sacrificing one of them to just get a single kill today wouldn't be smart IMO.  With 10 left, it's likely 8T-2S, even a misylnch today would leave us 6T-2S with Lyner sure to be lynched tomorrow.  

 

So if Lyner is telling the truth, and he has a voyour role he used on me, then how could my save not happen.  I read through the roles and modifiers possible and the only possibility I could find is we had a Ascetic cop.  

 

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Ascetic

 

When combined with other power roles, the Ascetic modifier creates roles that cannot be tampered with directly, but are immune to beneficial actions as well. For example, an Ascetic Cop cannot be Roleblocked, but also cannot be protected by a Doctor.

 

Or the modifier Macho

 

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Macho

 

 

But then, I would assume after KC was killed, that modifier would show up.  Right TW?  I don't know how to tag him.

 

 

This is the only way Lyner is telling the truth if he really did visit me.  I have gone through the various roles and the modifiers and I don't see any other explanation that Lyner could be telling the truth.  

[LordSunday]

Well after reading Lyner's post I was surprised I was like damn, the scum really are going all in.  But it didn't make sense to me why a scum would try to pull this off today, as even if Lyner is scum and was able to knock me off, once I'm dead and found to be the doctor, he's dead.  I mean scum are in a bad spot, but sacrificing one of them to just get a single kill today wouldn't be smart IMO.  With 10 left, it's likely 8T-2S, even a misylnch today would leave us 6T-2S with Lyner sure to be lynched tomorrow.  

 

So if Lyner is telling the truth, and he has a voyour role he used on me, then how could my save not happen.  I read through the roles and modifiers possible and the only possibility I could find is we had a Ascetic cop.  

 

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Ascetic

 

When combined with other power roles, the Ascetic modifier creates roles that cannot be tampered with directly, but are immune to beneficial actions as well. For example, an Ascetic Cop cannot be Roleblocked, but also cannot be protected by a Doctor.

 

Or the modifier Macho

 

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Macho

 

 

But then, I would assume after KC was killed, that modifier would show up.  Right TW?  I don't know how to tag him.

 

 

This is the only way Lyner is telling the truth if he really did visit me.  I have gone through the various roles and the modifiers and I don't see any other explanation that Lyner could be telling the truth.  

The Warrior could we get explanation on if and how those modifiers would be presented?

[Rhizoctonia]

That's honestly the one two I could find going through everything that would make me believe Lyner, and make his claim make sense to me.  I went through all the roles or modifiers I could find, and knowing I RB'd KC, I don't see how my doctor ability wouldn't work unless someone stopped it, which if Lyner is saying the truth, would of saw, unless they have some multiple ninja roles which wouldn't make sense.  I  don't think if I have modifiers I don't know about like a aestic/macho it would stop me from protecting him.  

 

What I also don't get is if Mafia have no ability to stop me, then why would they target the cop?  The scum had to know who I was going to use my ability on, so if they couldn't stop me they certainly wouldn't of went for the cop, but me and kill the cop next time.  

[SeaBeeGipson]

What I also don't get is if Mafia have no ability to stop me, then why would they target the cop?  The scum had to know who I was going to use my ability on, so if they couldn't stop me they certainly wouldn't of went for the cop, but me and kill the cop next time.  

 

 

This is my problem. Nothing adds together without someone lying. I'm fairly positive a condition like Macho would be revealed upon death. The same way x-shot abilities are revealed upon death. I'm waiting to hear more from other people, and for TW to confirm whether or not that would've been mentioned upon death.

 

At a proposed 10T-2S, it isn't as good a spot as we all think when you look at it. A mislynch today causing a 6T-2S layout doesn't factor in the Scum JoAT possibility with a vig kill. That would leave us 5T-2S, and one more mislynch at 3T-2S. Assuming we don't mislynch afterwards, it goes from 5T-2S to 4T-1S. Then a single mislynch after wards can put us in a spot some of us are familiar with. 1 wrong vote and game is over. 

 

Either way, this game is over by 7 or 8. I'd rather not carelessly mislynch to 'gather' information about a POSSIBILITY of someone else being scum.

 

If scums goal here is to lynch Rhizo, taking the doctor out of play; this would allow them to use 1 scum to kill, and 1 to vig kill. No need for a roleblock. 

I'm not at all saying this is the case, but it definitely would put perspective on the possible motives here.

[Wolfpacks]

Im still around just have nothing to add at this moment.

[Lyner]

Unless TW made a mistake, modifiers are revealed upon death so KC is out of the picture

 

Therefore the only loophole is in the sanity modifiers

 

Let's dig in a little deeper:

- A paranoid investigative role always receives a guilty result. a.k.a paranoid Voyeur targeting a nightkill target receives the "kill" action as a result. Otherwise, they receive a blank result.

- A naive investigative role always receives an innocent result. a.k.a always blank result. Also nope

- An insane investigative role receives the opposite result of a sane role. a.k.a. An insane Follower receives the results of a sane Voyeur, and vice versa. Probable

 

Since I have actually got a result on N1, I might be able to prove my ability is sane by having the other person confirms my result. But I think he is one of those who haven't RCed yet, so I'm not sure about revealing it abruptly

*sanity modifiers on me or Rhizo

[Rhizoctonia]

Unless TW made a mistake, modifiers are revealed upon death so KC is out of the picture

 

Therefore the only loophole is in the sanity modifiers

 

Let's dig in a little deeper:

- A paranoid investigative role always receives a guilty result. a.k.a paranoid Voyeur targeting a nightkill target receives the "kill" action as a result. Otherwise, they receive a blank result.

- A naive investigative role always receives an innocent result. a.k.a always blank result. Also nope

- An insane investigative role receives the opposite result of a sane role. a.k.a. An insane Follower receives the results of a sane Voyeur, and vice versa. Probable

 

Since I have actually got a result on N1, I might be able to prove my ability is sane by having the other person confirms my result. But I think he is one of those who haven't RCed yet, so I'm not sure about revealing it abruptly

*sanity modifiers on me or Rhizo

 

I skipped over the insane/naive/paranoid modifiers as I've only seen them on the role of cop.  Didn't know/have seen they could be used on another power.  

 

So with your result, what result did you get?

 

If you got nothing, an explanation is you're naive.  

 

A naive Tracker, Follower, Watcher, or Voyeur receives a blank result

 

 

I guess you could be paranoid as well if it was nothing or blank

• A paranoid Voyeur targeting a nightkill target receives the "kill" action as a result. Otherwise, they receive a blank result.

 

Or random

 

A random investigative role receives a random result -- normally the result a sane investigation would receive from a randomly chosen living person. The randomly chosen person, if the mod chooses to go this route, cannot be the person doing the investigation in the first place

 

 

 

You can't be insane, because if i read that right, you'd get the results of a sane Follower.  Thus if you targeted me, you should of got a result that I used a protective ability.  

[KevinH]

I don't see why a Nurse would be overpowering.  I haven't done anything all game.

 

While I do believe that Rhizo is probably the doctor, my role as Nurse does not confirm that.  From MafiaWiki:

 

"This role makes no guarantee about the existence of a Doctor in the setup to begin with. If there is no Doctor, then this role is functionally a Named Townie at best."

 

Also, "A Nurse is used to ensure that the Doctor role stays in the game even if the first person holding the role dies. To that end, it is vaguely similar in power to giving a Doctor one shot of death immunity."

[LordSunday]

I can't see the playouts that have been described being that probable (though considering what happened to me was approximately a .5% chance, I shouldn't be saying that lol.

 

Either way, my belief is that one of these two are lying, whether it be Rhizo or Lyner. At this point, I trust Rhizo more than Lyner. If you have results that would prove your role if confirmed Lyner, then that would make me look to Rhizo quite a bit more. I hate to force info, but if you are confident Rhizo is scum and we hit correct, our odds facing off against 1 more scum are definitely in our favor than scratching our heads for two days and letting the scum pick off another 2 or 3 of us.

 

In the meantime, considering Rhizo and his doctor line being questioned, it is worth noting (again) that SBG was RBed on N2, and there wasn't a kill performed... I'm not suggesting we do it, but a lynch of SBG would be able to give some valuable info. If SBG were lynched and came scum, it is very possible he was in fact the RBed killer on N2, which wouldn't exactly hurt/help Rhizo, but it puts the scum team down yet another member which puts us just a tad closer to winning. If he pops up hider as he claimed (which is a weak, easy-to-make RC in my opinion), then Rhizo would have had to have been the savior (unless someone else could have prevented the kill), and we have two more confirmed townies (assuming they both survive the night).

[Lyner]

On the first night I targeted Rhizo and found that he is under investigation

My initial reaction was that cop targeted him, but I confirmed that investigation could mean any investigative actions: any cops, tracker, watcher and such.

That's what my last post on D2 mean, anyway. I didn't see any aggresion towards you from anyone so I assume cop found you innocent. Well that doesn't matter now.


Pick your choice, town.

[Rhizoctonia]

I want to try  to believe Lyner, simply because I think it would be ballsy of a scum to try to push a lynch of a doctor when I don't see it being a wise move if they only have 2 left at this point, and 8 town.  They need to push a mislynch, but at the same point, Lyner has to know if for some reason I'm lynched, he's screwed tomorrow, so it's a trade off and town still is in rather good shape.  But then again, I feel the field of possible scum has been narrowed down enough that scum are going to have to pull something to try to make a chance...especially if I'm right that if the remaining scum are in the small list of 4 that I've listed.  Maybe they're hoping to knock both a the doctor out today and if Kevin is telling the truth, kill him tonight so we're out of doctors.

 

I'm not sure. 

 

I agree that I think if the cop was asectic it would of been revealed upon death.  TW hasn't answered yet, but I believe it would have.  

 

So the only way Lyner isn't lying out his ass is the modifier of random

 

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Sanities

 

A random investigative role receives a random result -- normally the result a sane investigation would receive from a randomly chosen living person. The randomly chosen person, if the mod chooses to go this route, cannot be the person doing the investigation in the first place.

 

 

Where he got a random result D1 of some other living person who got targeted by a investigation ability, and last night, he got the result of a random living person who didn't do anything instead of the person who RB'd me.

 

At this point, no one has come out that they used a role on me D1. 

 

or

Percentage

 

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Percentage

 

Whereas either him or I have a percentage of having our role be successful.  Whereas I didn't get roleblocked, but had an unsuccessful protection, or he didn't succeed on his voyeur.

 

The Warrior is percentage a possible sanity role possible?  I wouldn't classify it as a sanity role personally, but it's in the same webpage as all the others?

 

It's either one of those, or ascetic wasn't revealed upon death of the cop, or Lyner is lying.  With all the claimed PR's out this game, and town having a JOAT, I wouldn't be surprised if scum had a JOAT as well that roleblocked me that prevented my kill.  I don't think scum would target the cop if they didn't have a way to block my role, as they knew I was going there, and instead kill me last night to get a for sure kill and removal of protection.  

 

I'll wait to hear from TW on this.

[KevinH]

Another possibility for the missed kill is that Sister Midnight commuted and they missed her.

 

And a really remote possibility is that the scum didn't submit a kill, either by inactivity (unlikely) or choice (it's a strategy when there are lots of watchers/trackers/followers/motion detectors).