910 replies to this topic

[vgmmaster]

How is it everyone is always able to post so much during the day? Stupid work getting in the way. Evenings are generally when I'll be most active (not always the case admittedly).

 

- brewers

 

vgm is kind of in the same boat as SBG.  Completly absent while we lynched town and put up no resistance to it nor did vgm offer insight into who may or may not be more likely as scum.  Very silent and kind of just sat by and watched as we lynched town, then the second we appear to find scum vgm also shows up and starts giving insight.  then close to the lynch asked canik to role claim, and after canik did claim tracker, vgm kept the vote on canik, but never stated why they felt caniks claim was not believable   VGM even said it made sense that lego roleblocked robert, which in turn would back caniks claim, yet even tho vgm seemed to say caniks claim was probably true the vote stayed the same.  plus, vgm did not even vote or show up until I posted (page 26 post 501) stating that I think either SBG, rafay or vgm is scum.  VGM said "Between the two choices we have available, we have the vanilla Warrior, and the power role (most likely) Canik." So it appears vgm would rather lynch a power role than a VT.  What I find really interesting is that ISoc was on TW and VGM was on Canik.  before that vote canik was only at one vote, but this put him to two votes, and thus in danger of being lynched.  If Canik flipps town it would not shock me if either vgm or SBG flip scum too, since they both together put canik also in danger of being lynched if the wagon shifted off TW

 

 

It's true that I wasn't the most active during day 2, especially during the first half. Preparing for a funeral and traveling between hospitals will do that to you.

 

A couple things though. I didn't exactly ask Canik to roleclaim. I said that he may as well, especially if there's a decent chance he could end up dead that day. Whether or not we believed his claim of Tracker was up to us afterwards. I never said I didn't believe Canik's roleclaim. What I wondered was how do we know he's a pro town tracker as opposed to a scum tracker. With The Warrior going back through the thread to make an effort against Canik, I believed The Warrior to be town at that point. In a normal game, I wouldn't be as willing to lynch a power role, but I think we can agree this isn't a normal game, yes? We know 10 people are alive, and 6 roles are still out there. I think it's reasonable to presume that scum has at least one power role, if not two (I think three would be a bit much, but you never know). All I knew was, it was not in the town's interest to go to night 2 with a no lynch. And as of right now, I don't think Canik is worth trying to lynch as we have scum pinned already between Kevin / Isoc. And if Rafay is alive tomorrow, he's a good candidate for day 4. That said, if Canik is alive when it comes to LYLO and he's one of three remaining people in the game, I think we have to take a real hard look in his direction.

 

In other words, I don't think Canik is lying about his role. If Kevin ends up flipping as scum, it does paint Canik in a more positive light. The only thing that scares me is if this is all a ploy. Sacrifice Kevin to make the scum partner Canik almost non-lynchable. I don't know Canik well enough to know if he could come up with that. But I remember Kevin from the old school days and I could see him as a schemer.

 

You scream scum so much to me. Your just trying to step up the lynch of towns, but the thing that troubles me. Is knowing that Kevin's team mate knows Kevin is lying. And if found out today would clear myself and canik.

 

Referring to the point I made above this quote, how does clearing you clear Canik beyond a shadow of a doubt? Wanting to make sure I didn't miss something here.

 

Kevin can't prove his either. Well, I mean he could have started the day off with it instead of just voting for me purely based on the fact of my two last lynch votes. But... why probe him when you can paint a picture. Also just so people are clear. Again, I have not use any night ability at any given point of this game. I'm now claiming the 1-shot Vig. If the other scum will like to counter claim that role that would be great. But, since no one will. That is the truth, that I, iSocialism, stake claims to be the one shot vigilante.

Now with that, if I were to be scum with a one shot. I would have made the other scum do the killing. I would have stay under the radar, until the double kill would have benefit my team. In other words I would not have done anything last night.

Still no one is acknowledging Kevin late RC'ed. All the focus is on me, or lynching after my death and who to target next. I'll make it easy on all ya. iSoc, then Kevin or Kevin then his buddies

 

Interesting claim here. Of note, nobody has counterclaimed either Kevin or Isoc (or anyone else) at this point. So no reason I think to not believe the role claim itself. That said, I'm wondering if it dug Isoc a deeper hole. What I mean is, if he is truly town, we could hit two scum between Kevin and whoever Isoc targets tonight (he mentioned wanting to shoot brewers). But if Isoc is scum, and he kills tonight, that's three townies down (mislynch, scum vig, scum faction).

 

Lego was asking for who he should potentially roleblock, if we mislynch between Kevin and Isoc, I think the roleblock should possibly be the other person (especially if Isoc is scum and survives the day). While the scum faction can have whoever else send in the factional kill, we would be blocking a confirmed scum at that point and would just have to hope Canik strikes gold. Unless I'm missing something, the strategy sounds solid in my head at least.

 

Hmm that's actually a good defense iSoc. Wonder why you were trying some weird theories to defend yourself earlier. If you're vig and scum, I find it hard to understand that you will do the scum killing unless the plan was to kill two - Frigid and Canik. And if that is true, Rafay is surely scum as lego stopped the scum kill.

Now you can be town vig too. At least we can have some more discussions on that. I am yet to be convinced you're not scum but I can't rule out the possibility entirely.

 

Good point made by Lachiton here. Rafay could have been blocked and Isoc could be lying about not using his one shot. I don't think this was asked yet, but Lego, do you get confirmation if you stopped an action at night, or no? I would presume no, but might be telling information if you did.

 

He doesn't
I rather have the role blocker gone before I used my one shot, but you know for the sake of a mislynch can't take time to think that through.
But, I understand why you need to ensure my lynch brewer. Because your my target tonight

 

While I don't disagree necessarily with the targeting of Brewers, is there anything specific about him that triggers red flags? I get that he could be playing us all for fools, but aside from that? Is it from when and The Warrior were going at it back in day 2?

 

[legoboyvdlp]

Vgn, no, I do not get told if it failed or succeeded, as it is more of a passive role. I learn that from flavor text

[Robert2424]

So really this can go one of 4 ways. I'll put most ideal to less ideal. IDK the likely hood.

1. We Lynch isoc, and he's.........Mafia. if Kevin is telling the truth Lego is likely to survive the next day. Why? Because if scum decide to off Lego, we have Kevin to tell us who killed Lego. So in this case scum would take there chance's and kill Kevin. Preventing the watcher to getting two mafia lynched.

2. Kevin is lynched, and turns mafia. Isoc is now confirmed vig. Lego dies tomorrow, isoc uses either tonight or next.

4. Kevin is lynched, turns town. Lego dies. Possibly isoc uses his one shot extra kill (if he has it) kills CANIK. Power roles down.

3. Isoc is lynched, turns town. Is a unique situation now. Causing confusion. Kevin would of played us for fools. Down a vig.

We also have a interesting situation at night. CANIK needs to try to choose somebody Lego doesn't block without Lego telling him who he's going to block. Scum have 3 choices who to send to kill. If Lego blocks correctly he saves his own life and we get a mafia killed. This is regardless weather it scenario 1,2,3,4. Mafia and town both have to stay unpredictable. It's like a blackjack game. Mafia is the house. They have slightly better odds of winning this exchange coming next night.
Besides number of mafia. * post after rereading my very recent post.

[KevinH]

Because if scum decide to off Lego, we have Kevin to tell us who killed Lego.

 

I used my 1-shot as a watcher last night so I can't watch Lego tonight.

[iSocialism]

Because if scum decide to off Lego, we have Kevin to tell us who killed Lego.

 
I used my 1-shot as a watcher last night so I can't watch Lego tonight.

that's fine just make up the results, you have experience

[Robert2424]

Yeah I forgot goldiron was a one shot watchers. Those aren't common. Well, replace watcher for confirmed Townie. I completely missed that.

[Canik]

@ SLMK - could we get a vote count soon?

​I think I'm gonna go ahead and..

​Vote KevinH

​To encourage more suspicion on him which there really, really should be. Yes his explainations have been great but KevinH is very experienced and intelligent. He could have came up with some of these defenses before the day even began. And yes iSoc has seemed frantic and some of his arguments very questionable but there is a fair chance it is his personality and/or for some reason he hasn't been thinking as clearly. There is also a fair chance he is just scum squirming like many are assuming but I just want to point out it still isn't a sure thing.

​And when I look at things I know are a fact.. I see KevinH visiting Frigid. I see Rafay supporting Kevin's narrative at the start of the day. 

​I do also see iSoc votes for two mislynches. But it is equally damning perhaps that KevinH has been on none and has almost entirely limited his focus to iSoc the entire game. 

If you believe Rafay is probably scum (and his quietness since I posted my tracker result is adding to my suspicion that he is).. and if you believe I am a tracker that is probably town.. then you should be taking a long hard look at Kevin still. 

​If I recall correctly someone earlier something along the lines "It wouldn't make sense for Kevin to lie because we'll find out once we lynch and then would lynch him if he was lying".. normally, that'd be true but after my tracker result maybe he didn't have much choice. When you're scum and your ousted, you do what you can to take out townies with you. Killing a town first before he dies would still be better than him just straight up dying and NOT taking out a town first.




 

[legoboyvdlp]

I'm really happy to lynch either one, although I think iSoc is the scummier of the two. Your arguments make sense though. Particularly "almost entirely limited his focus to iSoc the entire game. " Which fits with his trying to bring down iSoc with him if he is scum. 

[KevinH]

Consider that iSocialism was deserving of some suspicion and then he got caught.

 

I believe Canik is town and can understand the vote in that he saw me visit FrigidInferno but all I can say is that I'm town and that I used the watcher power last night.

[Canik]

In the end all we know for an absolute fact is that KevinH visited Frigid then Frigid died. This is a fact for everyone, not just myself, because KevinH confirms that he did visit Frigid.

​@ Kevin - why did you stay off the TW/Canik wagons yesterday? If not for Brewers it would've ended in no lynch. I didn't realize you were for no lynch on D2 as well.

[legoboyvdlp]

To confirm Kevin you did not use the role night 1? Why not?

[Robert2424]

he did say it was a 1 shot. waiting a night would  give him better odds of guessing correctly. 

[brewersalliance]

So here is what we are looking at for potential roles:

 

1)Night 3 Vigilante OR Vengeful
2)1-Shot Vigilante OR 1-Shot PGO- ISoc claims 1-Shot Vigi
3)Cop OR 1-Shot Redirector-Frigid was Cop
4)1-Shot Commuter OR 1-Shot Watcher-GoldIron was Watchers
5)Doctor OR Roleblocker-Lego is Rb
6)Universal Backup OR Role Cop-KevinH Claims Universal Backup (became watcher)
7)Neighborizer OR Fruit Vendor
8)Jailkeeper OR Tracker Canik tracker

 

so we have Brewers, Lachiton, Rafay, Robert, VGM and SBG left for the last two roles.  The roles that could have visited frigid are: watcher, 1 shot vigi, fruit vendor, role blocker, tracker, and scum

 

We can eliminate the fruit vendor based on flavor, and can eliminate roleblocker based on lego's claim

Canik was the tracker and he tracked Kevin, who confirmed he did visit Frigid.  So that means Kevin can be one of three potential roles:  1 shot vigi (which Isoc claimed), vanilla scum that did the kill, or the watcher.    I dont think its possible for Kevin to be the 1 shot vigi, as if he was, that would mean isoc would not have that role, and the watcher claim would be a lie thus making Isoc town, and he would most likely not lie about what actual town role he has.  So Kevin is either the 1 shot watcher, like he claimed or scum.  Now there is a chance he was the watcher and still preformed the scum kill.  This way, he could claim the role and say someone visited the person he killed, and be able to frame someone else.  Look, we dont know for sure if Isoc visited frigid at all, but we do know for sure if Kevin did.  And Kevin and Rafay teamed up right away to try to plant the seed that Isoc is scum.  I could be wrong about this, but its starting to look like Kevin was trying to plant the isoc seed the entire time, and then when he got accused he said it was Isoc (who he was in favor of lynching d2).  Also on D2, both kevin and Rafay stayed off the bandwagons, as we lynched a townie.  I am still very suspicious of Rafay as well.  I find it odd that he is very quiet on here, but then commented almost immediately after KevinH mentioned the Isoc thing to start the day.  Its almost as if he knew the post was coming and knew he needed to chime in....

 

vote:  KevinH

also, @MK can we get a vote update?

[legoboyvdlp]

Sounds fair to me. Given that Canik found out my role, I definitely know that he is actually the tracker. So yeah, we know Kevin did visit, we don't know if iSoc actually did (though personally I think he did). The Rafay - Kevin on iSoc does make sense too. 

 

Unvote

 

Holding off to the last minute

[Lord MK]

Vote Count:

KevinH(3): iSocialism, Canik, brewersalliance
iSocialism (2): KevinH, Lachiton
Rafay (1): SeaBeeGipson
Canik(0):
SeaBeeGipson (0):
Lachiton (0):
Vgmmaster (0):
legoboyvdlp (0):
Robert2424 (0):
Brewersalliance (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting: Rafay, legoboyvdlp, Vgmmaster, Robert2424

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is Thursday, 1st February, 2018 at 10 am GMT.

[Canik]

Still have 4-5 days till deadline but I hope to hear more from Rafay, VGM, SBG, Robert well before then. I'm pretty certain 1, very likely 2 scum hiding out in there. 

​VGM made a decent post before altho it wasn't very conclusive and the amount of shade VGM keeps trying to cast on me is a little curious (to me at least, tho I'm biased).. and his theories of "I worry this is some big elaborate trap, sacrificing scum to make the other scum seem town" are rather unrealistic.

​SBG voting on Rafay.. not AS suspicious of this because I think there's a good chance Rafay & KevinH are scum partners.. if KevinH flips town tho, maybe SBG is iSoc's partner trying to redirect votes off iSoc.

​Robert.. if I recall correctly came out against iSoc earlier. Potentially part of a Kevin/Rafay/Robert team. He didn't vote tho I guess, or unvoted. Overall he's seemed fairly quiet, not making many waves, staying under the radar. 

​Rafay.. suspicions on him are well documented no need to repeat them again I think.

[KevinH]

Lynching me is lynching a townie. 

 

The facts:

• It's a fact that I was the Universal Backup (no counterclaim)
• It's a fact that I became the 1-shot Watcher.
• It's a fact that Canik saw me visit FrigidInferno.

 

He said-she said:

• I saw iSocialism target FrigidInferno.
• He denies it.

[iSocialism]

Lynching me is lynching a townie. 
 
The facts:

• It's a fact that I was the Universal Backup (no counterclaim)
• It's a fact that I became the 1-shot Watcher.
• It's a fact that Canik saw me visit FrigidInferno.

 
He said-she said:

• I saw iSocialism target FrigidInferno.
• He denies it.

The first two can only be a fact according to you. As to everyone else, it's just a guess. I can pretty much say the same thing. You're really trying to push this narrative. Playing it safe without talking about others. At least I'm not playing safe also why didn't you put the first line as a fact? I mean, I'm just messing with you, but...

[Canik]

I think it's pretty much a fact that Kevin is Backup/Rolecop but since role =/= alignment it doesn't matter much. Makes his argument plausible (that he only visited to watch Frigid) but doesn't prove he's innocent. Rolecop is traditionally a scum role too, what help would that have been to town?

​Anyway Kevin & iSoc both of you should consider posting your final thoughts soon. Who do you think would be scum partners of the other and what-not. If you're really town you should want to leave us with all the info you can even if it's speculative. 

[iSocialism]

I will being trying to make my list when I'm home tonight, but it does take time. In that mean time correct me if I'm wrong.
Current claim roles
Canik - tracker
KevinH - backup/watcher
iSoc - one shot vig
Lego - role blocker
????? - fruit vender

Unclaimed roles
N3 vig...

Dead/past roles
Cop - fridge
Old watcher - Goldiron