1091 replies to this topic

[The Warrior]

No one here is in danger of being lynched today except for Rhizoctonia. That means that the town still has 8 real days left (assuming no one hammers Rhizo early) in this game day to continue to discuss what tomorrow might look like. Come tomorrow the town will no longer have a gifted lead to go off of unless new information comes to the table. That means that all players need to be actively contributing, especially if you expect those of us who are to not look at those who aren't first. Being busy irl is fine but we are getting down to crunch time now and need all the activity we can get. If you aren't actively contributing you better be ready to answer questions about why you aren't.

 

We had one night where 0 kills occurred. We could chalk that up to our various power roles doing a great job but that would mean that we had a whole lot of luck. It's at least equally likely (and probably more likely) that one of our scum factions might have been inactive and could have missed the deadline to submit a kill. Therefore, looking at players who have not been very active isn't an awful strategy. I'm not saying with 100% certainty that everyone who has claimed a role so far is town. I can only guarantee you that I am and then make educated guesses about everyone else, but I believe it's likely that at least 1 werewolf lies within the "unhelpful" category of ABT's list. That means that we have a much greater chance of identifying someone there before potentially identifying someone else elsewhere.

 

I'm looking forward to hearing more of Yehom's and Lachiton's thoughts when they can provide them.

[The Warrior]

@Brewers - You've been active all over the forums today. Care to weigh in here at all?

[Kitkat16]

No one here is in danger of being lynched today except for Rhizoctonia. That means that the town still has 8 real days left (assuming no one hammers Rhizo early) in this game day to continue to discuss what tomorrow might look like. Come tomorrow the town will no longer have a gifted lead to go off of unless new information comes to the table. That means that all players need to be actively contributing, especially if you expect those of us who are to not look at those who aren't first. Being busy irl is fine but we are getting down to crunch time now and need all the activity we can get. If you aren't actively contributing you better be ready to answer questions about why you aren't.

 

We had one night where 0 kills occurred. We could chalk that up to our various power roles doing a great job but that would mean that we had a whole lot of luck. It's at least equally likely (and probably more likely) that one of our scum factions might have been inactive and could have missed the deadline to submit a kill. Therefore, looking at players who have not been very active isn't an awful strategy. I'm not saying with 100% certainty that everyone who has claimed a role so far is town. I can only guarantee you that I am and then make educated guesses about everyone else, but I believe it's likely that at least 1 werewolf lies within the "unhelpful" category of ABT's list. That means that we have a much greater chance of identifying someone there before potentially identifying someone else elsewhere.

 

I'm looking forward to hearing more of Yehom's and Lachiton's thoughts when they can provide them.

 

You are not a confirmed townie. Just sayin'. 

[brewersalliance]

I dont really have anything earth shattering to add.  I still dont trust yehom from our interactions last month.  obviously rhizo is the next lynch.  if something else jumps out at me, ill make sure to share it, but i honestly havent read all those posts, there are pages and pages ill have to read through and i keep forgetting to do so lol  lachiton is in india for work so I would not be shocked if his focus on this game has greatly diminished, so thats probably why he has been so silent  

[Yehom]

I will start of by saying that I agree with most of the sentiments that are lingering this day. Yes Rhizo is a dead man walking, defending him would be absolutely stupid as he himself has already given up. No i do not believe that every person that hasn't role claimed should be seen as 'unhelpful', whatever that may entail. I personally believe that not everybody that has role claimed so far is telling the truth. Regarding Roberts death I think that that's Werewolves playing safe. They want to keep everybody that town even slightly considers not town alive so they are potential lynches and they also had to consider Rhizo's and town protective role's potential target, so they don't waste a kill. Killing Robert in that scenario would probably be optimal, as Rhizo was not probably not going to target him, nor would a town protective role as Robert's power wasn't extremely powerful. Regarding the Samus discussion, I honestly am not completely buying the fact that he is a Vig and managed to kill MK in a lucky attempt during N2. As of right now these are my thoughts regarding everybody still in this game

 

The Warrior: I've seen some people doubt the fact that he's a town cop. I personally think that he's probably not a werewolf cop trying to play it off like a townie. Given the game design and the multiple factions, it's highly possible that a town cop exists and since nobody has counterclaimed this, I'm inclined to believe that TW is cop and also town

Lachiton: I have absolutely no read on this guy, he's been inactive for the most part, barely participating in discussions which makes it hard to get a read on him. Could be town, could absolutely be werewolf as well

Canik: claims to be a Miller, has been checked by Jazzy and came up guilty I think if I remember that correctly. I can't remember if TW already checked him or not, but if he did come up as guilty on his investigation as well, it's probably true that Canik is the Miller and therefore town

Brewers: I went hard on his ass for not fully role claiming and I still feel that I'm in the right on that one. The fact that Rafay tried to role claim Yoda, while Ali was Yoda is only a testament to this. However since Rafay already came up as the SK, it's likely that Brewers is what he claimed he is, which means he's most likely town

Jazzy: roleclaimed to be FBI agent and found out that Rafay was the SK. However given the list of possible roles and the fact that werewolves have access to FBI agents too, it makes you wonder whether Jazzy is a townie or a werewolf. I'm still 50/50 on this one. 

LordSunday: same as with Lachiton, absolutely no read on him

Rhizo: mafia, done deal

Samus: claimed to be nurse first, then claimed to be 1-shot Vig and asked to be reloaded by Ali, claimed to have used his first and only shot on MK during N2. What I don't understand is why there were only 3 kills during N2 if this is true. If someone can enlighten me on what exactly happened during that situation, I'm more inclined to believe Samus' story, but for the moment things don't really add up entirely in that situation  

Ali: claimed Reloader, confirmed by Robert, 100% town

Kitkat: has been active, but very on the fence in my eyes, hardly ever really participating in discussions, just pinches his thoughts right in when he needs to, hard to get a clear read on him, but suspicious nevertheless

SM: same as with Lachiton and LS

 

I may have missed some things here or there, which you all are welcome to add for me, but for the moment this is what I got

[Canik]

A solid wall of analysis by Yehom. +1 town point for him. Look forward to reading a lot more analysis (from everyone) when I get back!

​I should be back before the next game day so long as the day isn't ended early. So plz don't end it early. <3

Good hunting, town!

[Ali bin Turban]

Lachiton and Kitkat, we indeed have little confirmed townies and quite a few in the shadow zone. But it does not change anything when it comes to my opinion about you.

True, Jazzy is not doing any scumhunting and is not confirmed. But I feel the same about you. And lack of strong or easy confirmable role is no excuse.

 

Also I'm not the only one here that can ask questions and I'm not obliged to press every unknown player equally. If you feel someone is flying under the radar it's your obligation (if you're town) to hunt him on your own. It's your obligation to ask questions and show your doubts (and no, just mentioning "there are other unknown players, not only me" is not scumhunting. It's diverting attention).

 

 

 

 

The Warrior: I've seen some people doubt the fact that he's a town cop. I personally think that he's probably not a werewolf cop trying to play it off like a townie. Given the game design and the multiple factions, it's highly possible that a town cop exists and since nobody has counterclaimed this, I'm inclined to believe that TW is cop and also town

I don't think counterclaiming is the issue here, as I don't find it possible for the KevinH to put both Werewolf Cop and Town Cop in game (it would be unfair for mafia). So If TW is a Werewolf Cop, there will be no Town Cop in game and noone will counterclaim him.

 

In fact Jazzy is in exactly the same situation as TW, so I wonder why do you think TW is town and Jazzy is just 50/50?

Edited by Ali bin Turban, 10 March 2018 - 05:18 PM.

[Ali bin Turban]

One thought from the morning:

 

- I think Samus is indeed a Vig. If he was a scum, he'd be gambling 2 times - first when claiming a nurse, then when claiming a Vig (werewolves can't have those roles). It just looks as a bit reckless action of a townie...and a to much gamble for a scum. There's a controversy connected to MK kill, but we can't do anything about it now.

- I assume we have doctor around

 

What i propose we do: We lynch Rhizo (obviously). Then doctor protects my ass, I go and reload Samus and Samus shoots one of the unknown 5 we find the most scummy. It's literally the same situation as if I reloaded him last night (then he'd shoot Rhizo and we'd lynch today one of the unknown 5 we find the most scummy).

 

We could vote normally on Rhizo and vote unofficially on Vig target (I'd count the votes on Vig wagons), like:

 

vote Rhizo

Vig Yehom

 

unvote (lets not end the day to early)

[Kitkat16]

One thought from the morning:

 

- I think Samus is indeed a Vig. If he was a scum, he'd be gambling 2 times - first when claiming a nurse, then when claiming a Vig (werewolves can't have those roles). It just looks as a bit reckless action of a townie...and a to much gamble for a scum. There's a controversy connected to MK kill, but we can't do anything about it now.

- I assume we have doctor around

 

What i propose we do: We lynch Rhizo (obviously). Then doctor protects my ass, I go and reload Samus and Samus shoots one of the unknown 5 we find the most scummy. It's literally the same situation as if I reloaded him last night (then he'd shoot Rhizo and we'd lynch today one of the unknown 5 we find the most scummy).

 

We could vote normally on Rhizo and vote unofficially on Vig target (I'd count the votes on Vig wagons), like:

 

vote Rhizo

Vig Yehom

 

unvote (lets not end the day to early)

 

I think this is a pretty good plan. But I don't think we should collectively agree whom to kill because if the werewolves *DO* have a roleblocker or any sort of PR role which can interfere with the kill, it will prevent Samus from killing the person we settle on.

[Sister Midnight]

I have some concerns about Ali’s plan, which I suppose was Samus’s plan. I still find Samus’s choice to fake claim, recant, and new claim of a power role, to be a flag. He may be telling the truth, and to be honest, I don’t have a strong scum vibe from him, but it is dicey. Assuming Samus is truthful, he will be guessing at scum, as opposed to last night when he could have been sure to take out scum. If he guesses wrong and kills a townie, he will look super scummy. However, I think Samus can easily convince (or manipulate if he is scum) a lot of people into forgiving the bad guess, I’m not saying I think Samus is scum, but I am concerned.

On another note, I don’t understand why people are finding me unreadable and/or unhelpful. I have shared my thoughts, I have not role claimed, TW has cleared me of being mafia, if not werewolf.

[The Warrior]

 

One thought from the morning:

 

- I think Samus is indeed a Vig. If he was a scum, he'd be gambling 2 times - first when claiming a nurse, then when claiming a Vig (werewolves can't have those roles). It just looks as a bit reckless action of a townie...and a to much gamble for a scum. There's a controversy connected to MK kill, but we can't do anything about it now.

- I assume we have doctor around

 

What i propose we do: We lynch Rhizo (obviously). Then doctor protects my ass, I go and reload Samus and Samus shoots one of the unknown 5 we find the most scummy. It's literally the same situation as if I reloaded him last night (then he'd shoot Rhizo and we'd lynch today one of the unknown 5 we find the most scummy).

 

We could vote normally on Rhizo and vote unofficially on Vig target (I'd count the votes on Vig wagons), like:

 

vote Rhizo

Vig Yehom

 

unvote (lets not end the day to early)

 

I think this is a pretty good plan. But I don't think we should collectively agree whom to kill because if the werewolves *DO* have a roleblocker or any sort of PR role which can interfere with the kill, it will prevent Samus from killing the person we settle on.

I don't dislike ABT's plan but this is a good point and highlights a glaring hole in the plan.

 

I am about 80% convinced that there is a roleblocker in play and I find the likelihood higher than not that it is a werewolf roleblocker. If a werewolf roleblocker does exist, the werewolves will still have a decision to make though. They will probably only choose to block Samus' shot if they believe there is a high likelihood that Samus actually chooses one of them. So, if we decide that Samus takes a shot at one of 3 or 4 people for example, if there is a werewolf name or even both werewolf names in that list the chances are that the werewolves would choose to block him. Otherwise they could let the shot go through if they believe Samus would be more likely to hit a townie.

 

If the roleblocker is a werewolf roleblocker, this plan can basically be nullified completely though. The only reason that the werewolves might not stop Samus via roleblock would be if they'd prefer to find the town doctor and roleblock him to guarantee their kill. But if we send the doctor to protect ABT to make sure that he gets to reload Samus, the werewolves can just easily choose to kill someone else at night with almost 0 chance that the town can prevent it. In this case, they would just block Samus and the whole thing was for nothing.

 

On the other hand, if a town roleblocker exists then they should go along with the plan that it looks like the majority of people agree with, especially if they see people that they believe are townies guiding that decision making process. Then the question becomes: is it worth having the roleblocker role claim so that we know he/she is a townie and actually exists and that there is a very small chance that a werewolf roleblocker exists to thwart the plan?

[Ali bin Turban]

I think this is a pretty good plan. But I don't think we should collectively agree whom to kill because if the werewolves *DO* have a roleblocker or any sort of PR role which can interfere with the kill, it will prevent Samus from killing the person we settle on.

 

That's a very good advice, but isn't Samus your #1 to lynch tomorrow? I mean he's your top suspect and here you go talking like you believe he's indeed a Vig.

[Yehom]

I just noticed that there are still 5 days left till deadline and I honestly don't see this discussion going anywhere other than town and 'townies' following Ali's strategy, which I could care less about, but since I feel that my power would be more productively used, I'll come forth. Town already had a suspicion that there was a role blocker in play, which is only half true. I'm Lieutenant Kaydel Ko Connix, a Town Jailkeeper. 

 

I've used my ability every night and these were my targets:

N1: Kitkat

N2: Rhizo

N3: Samus

N4: Rhizo

 

Note: I do not get a result from Kevin, so there is no way of determining whether or what I blocked from either side.

 

N1 I just fished, seeing how Kitkat was acting kind of fishy D1 (which he has been doing the entire game). Seeing as there were 3 kills nevertheless, it's safe to say that Kitkat didn't kill anybody, but it doesn't rule him out from a scum perspective. N2 I targeted Rhizo as I saw that he called some inactive people out, so I guessed he'd be a viable target to be killed (this was also before it was really confirmed that there were multiple anti-town factions). D3 there were still 3 deaths, but Samus said he Vig-killed MK which could be possible if I blocked the mafia kill that night, but Rhizo already dismissed that theory (which is why I brought it up in the first place, seeing as I knew I blocked Rhizo that night whilst protecting him). N3 is the most tricky one to figure out. I targeted Samus because he came out as the Nurse, so I decided it would be best to keep him protect him. My reasoning would be if he was telling the truth, anti-town factions would probably want him dead, even though he's just a Nurse, he's a protective role nonetheless. If he was lying and he was scum, I would block him anyway and maybe block a kill. Lo and behold that night nobody died. We already know that the mafia kill bounced off of Rafay, but that leaves us with 2 other kills. It leaves us with couple of scenarios: 1) both Rafay and werewolves targeted Samus and I successfully blocked 2 kills at once, 2) l only blocked the kill from one source and the other kill was either on Rafay again or something else prevented it in another way, 3) Samus is a werewolf and I blocked a kill that way. It's food for thought, but it at least dismisses again the claim that Samus would be a Werewolf PGO as I've visited him before, however it doesn't completely rule him out as a werewolf just quite yet. N4 was a no-brainer, stopping the mafia's kill means at least 1 person more to survive the night and most likely more time for town to figure out the werewolves. 

 

So Ali are you still on board for your plan, or do you really want me to just block the supposed vig, or even you from reloading? I know for a fact that werewolves are coming for me after this, so I really hope that there is a doctor in the room.

 

Also just going back to Ali's comment about TW and Jazzy having equal chance of being werewolf, reading back I kind of agree with the sentiment, however I do feel more that a SK is so much more niche and anti-everything that it would make more sense for an anti-town faction to have the FBI agent, as it also serves as a kind of cover townie role. The same could said for the Town/Werewolf Cop, but I personally think that it would make more sense seeing for the cop to be pro town as there has been also been a Town Seer, town kind of needs all those investigate roles to stand a chance against the onslaught.   

[Kitkat16]

 

I think this is a pretty good plan. But I don't think we should collectively agree whom to kill because if the werewolves *DO* have a roleblocker or any sort of PR role which can interfere with the kill, it will prevent Samus from killing the person we settle on.

 

That's a very good advice, but isn't Samus your #1 to lynch tomorrow? I mean he's your top suspect and here you go talking like you believe he's indeed a Vig.

 

 

yeah but then everyone disagreed with me and I just didn't know what to think

[KevinH]

Snoke: [Rey's restraints are undone] Come closer, child. So much strength. Darkness rises, and light to meet it. I warned my young apprentice that as he grew stronger, his equal in the light would rise. [uses the Force to take Rey's lightsaber] Skywalker... [laughs] I assumed. Wrongly. Closer, I said. [uses the Force to slowly move Rey toward him]
Rey: You underestimate Skywalker. And Ben Solo. And me. It will be your downfall.
Snoke: Oh. Have you seen something? A weakness...in my apprentice...is that why you came? [laughs] Young fool. It was I who bridged your minds. I stoked Ren's conflicted soul. I knew he was not strong enough to hide it from you, and you were not wise enough to resist the bait! [moves Rey closer and looks face to face with her] And now, you will give me Skywalker. Then I will kill you with the cruelest stroke.
Rey: No.
Snoke: Yes. [forces Rey into the air] Give...me...everything.
[Rey screams in agony]
 

Vote count:

Rhizoctonia (3): Kitkat16, Canik, Sister Midnight,
The Warrior (0): 
Lachiton (0): 
Yehom (0):  
Canik (0):
Brewersalliance (0):
Jazzy95 (0): 
LordSunday (0):
Samus (0):
Ali bin Turban (0):
Kitkat16 (0):
Sister Midnight (0):

No Lynch (0): 

Not voting:  Rhizoctonia, Yehom, Jazzy95, Lachiton, LordSunday, Brewersalliance, The Warrior, Samus, Ali bin Turban,

 
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is Saturday, March 17, at 12:00 EDT.

[Lachiton]

I am going to be AWOL for next 2 days with no internet connectivity. So before I go I just wanted to quickly drop in my thoughts. There will be still couple of days before deadline for me to post so I will still have time to post more of my thoughts later, possibly with more information.

Looking closely at Yehom's RC, it seems very believable to me. Rhizo said he was blocked both last night and on N2 from his tracking, so Yehom did block him. Now we dont know whether Yehom blocked mafia's kill as well, as iSoc could've been doing the kill. So there's still mystery why 3 kills took place and whether Yehom or our supposed doctor saved a kill. N3 is even more shrouded in mystery. First of all Samus, who votes for CoD during the day, claims a lucky shot on MK at night, claims nurse the following day, and supposedly gets saved from possible 2 scum attacks on him (Rhizo said he targeted Rafay). If Samus did get saved by Yehom, isn't it strange and funny that Samus fake claimed to get out of scum's radar but in turn scum said "Screw it lets target him anyways"? . Now it is possible that other kill was saved by doctor or Yehom stopped the WW kill by blocking Samus. I have said it before that if Samus is indeed ww, he is unlikely to be PGO. Infact he may not be 1 shot anything, just wants to use AbT's PR to confirm himself town, like it was done with Robert, and use ww faction kill on his intended vig targeted. Ofcourse I am not exactly sure that Samus is scum or not, but due to so much of inconsistencies in his play, it does make it hard to believe him atm. 

Also glad someone else thinks Jazzy should be on our suspects list. And now with Yehom coming out, he becomes a viable target for ww as he may be the reason that we have such advantageous position. So I believe either doctor should protect him or Yehom has to block the ww kill. Unfortunately I think he cant use his power on himself, so he has to find out likely scum and block him.

[Jazzy95]

Posting both so people know that I'm not AFK, and also to express my frustration that I'm still on a "suspect" list for some. Why would I take the step of confirming Canik's role last night? The consensus was to lynch Rhizo today, so I wasn't going to be in any danger today and could've just stayed quiet.

[Sister Midnight]

Posting both so people know that I'm not AFK, and also to express my frustration that I'm still on a "suspect" list for some. Why would I take the step of confirming Canik's role last night? The consensus was to lynch Rhizo today, so I wasn't going to be in any danger today and could've just stayed quiet.

OOC, Jazzy, sometimes I forget that the goal isn’t just to not be lynched, but for your faction: town, mafia scum, werewolf scum, sk, etc. to win. If I am town and I am wrongly lynched it will suck, but my goal is for town to win, so if I do not die in vain and town wins, I win.

That said, I’m thinking the only proven scum on the curr3nt roster is Rhizo and I have already voted to lynch him. However, my list remains the same. Everyone is a suspect for me, except Ali and Canik. Now, we have yet to find a duel role werewolf (granted, we’ve only found one werewolf), and I’m thinking it is a good chance that all the wolves are power players, but not dual ww/doctor.

So:

Ali bin Turban, Finn, Town Jack-of-all-Trades was killed Night 1
Vgmmaster, General Armitage Hux, Mafia Cupid, was killed Night 1.
The Warrior, Poe Dameron, Retired Werewolf Hunter, was killed Night 1
Imran Ehsan, Luke Skywalker, Town Seer, was lynched Day 2
Chaplain of Death, Lieutenant Tallissan "Tallie" Lintra, Town Cop-of-all-Trades, was killed Night 2
iSocialism, Kylo Ren, 1-Shot Mafia Governor, was killed Night 2
Lord MK, C-3PO, Werewolf Supersaint, was killed Night 2
Rafay, The Master Codebreaker, 2-Shot Bulletproof Serial Killer, was lynched Day 4
Robert2424, Vice Admiral Amilyn Holdo, Town One-shot Gladiator, was killed Night 4

confirmed town:
Ali/LEGO
Canik

Probably town, but could be WW (even though we have no WW evidence it can’t be ruled out entirely):
TW - cop, I believe him
Yehom - jailer, I believe him
Jazzy - fbi, I believe him

Leaning toward town (though could be ww):
brewsky role claimed, but I can’t find it
Samus - vig? weird roleclaiming raises questions

Crap I gtg, will finish this later.
also I need to review wh Robert seemed to be suspecting because that’s what got him killed. No time atm.

[Canik]

Annnnddd I'm back!

Hmm.. now, to support Ali's plan or not? That is the question. Although it may not matter if Yehom won't allow it but I'd still be interested to hear ideas on it. If there's a sound plan maybe Yehom will change his mind.



 

[Ali bin Turban]

Also just going back to Ali's comment about TW and Jazzy having equal chance of being werewolf, reading back I kind of agree with the sentiment, however I do feel more that a SK is so much more niche and anti-everything that it would make more sense for an anti-town faction to have the FBI agent, as it also serves as a kind of cover townie role. The same could said for the Town/Werewolf Cop, but I personally think that it would make more sense seeing for the cop to be pro town as there has been also been a Town Seer, town kind of needs all those investigate roles to stand a chance against the onslaught.

 

Yehom, I believe you. And what you post here is a very good point. Werewolf cop would be less inclined to show his findings to the town, so mafia would have it a little bit easier. 

 

Posting both so people know that I'm not AFK, and also to express my frustration that I'm still on a "suspect" list for some. Why would I take the step of confirming Canik's role last night? The consensus was to lynch Rhizo today, so I wasn't going to be in any danger today and could've just stayed quiet.

 

If you were town, it would be obvious for you to confirm Canik, wouldn't it?

Now, if you were scum, would you deny to confirm Canik knowing that town will perceive it as a very scummy move and will lynch you?

I think that should answer your question why you are still on the suspect list.

Annnnddd I'm back!

Hmm.. now, to support Ali's plan or not? That is the question. Although it may not matter if Yehom won't allow it but I'd still be interested to hear ideas on it. If there's a sound plan maybe Yehom will change his mind.

We may still support it, although shooting Yehom would not be the most elegant thing for town to do. Also Samus should decide himself who to chose.