I was initially going to wait to I saw an obvious time to use it.

 

Nothing specific about him that I couldn't say about others.

 

My suspected list of scum were the ones that voted for Imran with no real context apart from "YEAH I AGREE WITH SBG. VOTE!". And when he was eventually killed and found not to be scum, I knew I was going to use my action on one of them.

The question that stands is then whether a kill on either Ali or Samus goes before or after their night actions. If we want to make that strategy work, we need to see what actions go first @@KevinH

The question that stands is then whether a kill on either Ali or Samus goes before or after their night actions. If we want to make that strategy work, we need to see what actions go first @@KevinH

Kevin said they all hit at the same time.

If Kevin said that a reloaded action can be used in the same night it is loaded then I would presume that a "reload" of Samus would technically occur before all kills resolve since all "shots" are fired at the same time.

 

Can you confirm Kevin if that is indeed the case?

So the situation with Samus looks the following way:

 

N1 - we got 3 kills

 

N2 - Samus, takes a wild guess on who might be a scum. Out of the (Brewersalliance, Lord MK, Robert2424, Legoboyvdlp) he gets lucky to chose MK. At the same time someone from mafia faction gets unlucky and got blocked, so 3 kills remain.

 

D3 - He claims to be a nurse in order to preserve his supposedly precious role, which now is out of juice however.

Let's assume for a moment that he's indeed a PGO Werewolf ... could he assume that making such claim would attract investigative roles to check him out? I'm not sure, maybe.

 

N3 - Unrelated to Samus, strange thing happens - there are no kills. There are many possibilities and we won't know why. I'm pretty sure, however that SK could deliver a kill that night - there were 3 kills on N1 (so SK was not delayed) and both N1 and N3 are odd numbers (so a rules like "kills only on odd/even nights" do not apply ... unless its something more fancy, but why would it be?).

 

D4 - now Samus asks for a reload, albeit it's well motivated (on the other hand if he's PGO he could react the same way)...and his supposed partner in crime (if and that's a big if they're scum), TW is the only one that's encouraging me to do it.

 

 

 

 

Now assuming Samus is a Vig,

 

Scenario 1: if I reload him:

 - He'll shoot Rhizo

 - Rhizo will still kill someone

 - Werewolves will kill someone

 - On D5 there will be 8 town, 2 scum and we'll have 2 misslynches available

 - If we miss both lynches we lose on D8 with 2 towns vs 2 scum

 

Scenario 2: If I don't reload him:

 - Rhizo will still kill someone

 - Werewolves will kill someone

 - On D5 there will be 8 town, 3 scum we'll lynch Rhizo

 - On D6 there will be 7 town, 2 scum and we'll have 2 misslynches available

 - If we miss both lynches we lose on D9 with 1 town vs 2 scum

 

We actually don't gain anything from Samus shooting Rhizo...unless scum slips once again and we get a chance to block a kill, then we'll have one more misslynch chance.

 

Scenario 3: Samus is PGO and I visit him:

- I'm dead

- Rhizo kills someone

- Werewolves kill Rhizo

then Samus can claim he Vig'ed Rhizo, while me and someone else were scum NK victims. Situation is similar to scenario 1 (8 towns vs 2 scum on D5).

And one more thing, Lachiton's right. Samus and TW cannot be confirmed to be a Town. We can make assumptions, but we can't be 100% sure.

So basically tldr is you don't trust Samus enough to work this strategy out? Or at least you feel that the odds and consequences of him lying outweigh the potential good it does for town

TLDR is "I don't know"

 

 

Night 1, there were 3 kills - supposedly 1 mafia, 1 werewolf & 1 SK? Night 2, there were 3 kills. But I used my action to target MK and kill him and so that means either 1 of the 3 scum faction were either inactive, an x shot SK or a faction's action was blocked. Night 3, inclined to think Rafay is an x shot as I don't believe all 3 actions got blocked last night

 

 

Can I assume from this that you are a 1-shot Vig and only used your power on N2 when you killed MK?

 

Night 1, there were 3 kills - supposedly 1 mafia, 1 werewolf & 1 SK? Night 2, there were 3 kills. But I used my action to target MK and kill him and so that means either 1 of the 3 scum faction were either inactive, an x shot SK or a faction's action was blocked. Night 3, inclined to think Rafay is an x shot as I don't believe all 3 actions got blocked last night

 

 

Can I assume from this that you are a 1-shot Vig and only used your power on N2 when you killed MK?

 

yes.

 

and ABT how don't we gain anything?

 

If Rhizo dies tonight, we have an extra day to lynch scum?

In addition, you don't think your third scenario is a VERY risky move to make from the point of view of a werewolf?

Reading back Ali's scenario I feel that if a Vig kill by Samus doesn't prevent Rhizo from killing, then it's kind of wasted (not to mention the potential dangers of Samus being a Werewolf PGO). Yes town gains a potential extra lynch, but Rhizo has already done his damage if his kill goes through. Given the fact that all kills last night were prevented, I'm fairly confident that town still has at least one PR left that can prevent kills from happening. Now that Rhizo is 100% confirmed scum, it makes it easier to prevent at least one kill

"You think you can turn him? Pathetic child. I cannot be betrayed; I cannot be beaten. I see his mind, I see his every intent. Yes. I see him turning the lightsaber to strike true. And now, foolish child, he ignites it, and kills his true enemy!" -Supreme Leader Snoke

"Do all the assigned roles match exactly as given in the Greater Idea Mafia wiki?"
Yes, all roles are from the Greater Idea Mafia list with no switching of alignments.
There is some room for mod interpretation so I can't exactly say exactly.

"We need to see what actions go first"
I am not confirming anyone's roles but will say that Natural Action Resolution is used.
 
Vote count:

Rafay (6): Jazzy95, Lachiton, LordSunday, Kitkat16, Brewersalliance, The Warrior,
The Warrior (1): Rafay,
Yehom (0):  
Canik (0):
Brewersalliance (0):
Jazzy95 (0): 
LordSunday (0):
Rhizoctonia (0):
Samus (0):
Robert2424 (0):
Ali bin Turban (0):
Kitkat16 (0):
Sister Midnight (0):
Lachiton (0):

No Lynch (0): 

Not voting:  Rhizoctonia, Ali bin Turban, Yehom, Sister Midnight, Canik, Samus, Robert2424,   

 
With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch, or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is Saturday, March 3, at 07:00 EST.

Samus' explainations aren't bad. I lean, slightly, towards him being Town Vig right now. I don't envy the choice AbT has to make on whether or not to try to reload him tho and wouldn't blame him if he didn't.

Well I hate to just give up, but honestly, with the game setup already being told of possible roles in this game, and me going through such list, I don't see any roles really that I could use as an explanation of TW's reveal.  I know there's two possible ways I could play it, from claiming to be a miller to calling out TW as a liar and pinning it between us.  Problem is, one if I call miller, as ABT already revealed, one should claim that early on to let people know.  Me claiming that now is not going to do anything, it may prolong my death maybe one day, but not likely, and doubt I'd make it til the end anyway as I'd be fighting this for so many more days.  I could also call out TW for lying, but then it pins me against him, and even if I were to push a lynch on him and not me, when he's killed it will reveal he wasn't lying and I'll be dead next day.  A lot of work for no further outcome.

 

 

That being said, since my game got blown up, I'm going to throw my final thoughts on things.

 

 

Some possibilities:  

 

TW is a werewolf cop.  Town already lost a seer, and a cop of all trades (still haven't figured out what that means, assuming it's similar to JOAT).  The cop roles have already been revealed, and having so many cop roles for town sounds pretty unlikely when we already have a lot of things going against scum with immunities against certain classes, and 3 classes killing each other at night, which alone puts scum at a disadvantage from just normal town lynches in other games.  I would not be so quick to think TW is town, as all he had to do was find one bad guy and instantly he looks like a good guy by calling out scum.  That's the whole hope for a Werewolf cop, find a scum to laminate yourself has town.

Samus is sketchy as all hell.  First he claims Nurse, now claiming town Vig.  Town Vig is not that important of a role tbh, and to claim nurse to steer possible scum/werewolves/SK away from lynching him is no way beneficial to town as now the 3 bad faction are likely to go after someone else, putting the likes of more important town roles in jeopardy.  Not including the fact that he supposedly already used his ability, was out of shots, and yet still looked to fake RC to save a used up role that he couldn't reuse unless he actually came forward with his real one.  Yet, he didn't come forward when he was out of shots D3 with his real role, he didn't come out D3 saying he killed Rafay, and now suddenly he has. 

You know what's easy to claim.....a werewolf claiming town Vig saying he killed MK.  Whose going to call him out?  If him and his other werewolves killed MK, it's not like scum or SK would come out and say, no he didn't.  Let alone, the mere fact a Vig would use their ability N2, with little to go on besides a wagon on Imran, and risk killing a town member, for which he even admits MK was not anymore suspicious then the 6 other people on the wagon.  A vig, picking 1 out of 7 possible people N2 to kill and risk killing off a good town member?  Who does that.  I bet he's not even a Vig at all, just a 1 shot type Werewolf character.

Now he want's reloaded to what, kill me?  What do you gain?  Even if I didn't come out ending it for me, I am going to be killed tomorrow no matter what I say.  Even if ABT reloads him tonight, I am not sure if he is reloaded that he will also be able to use his ability that night, thus may not be able to kill me anyway.  I don't see how he possibly could use his ability if reloaded unless ABT tells mod very early in the night who he's going to and allows that person to use it, but I wouldn't think that's how that works.  Either way, you don't prevent two kills tonight anyway, as even if he kills me, my action will go through.  You don't save an extra life killing me tonight.  If you kill me tonight, or I'm lynched tomorrow, you still have possible 2 people killed tonight, and 1 kill from that point on.  Easy for werewolves to target me tonight and samus next day claim it was him and that i guess Werewolves got blocked.  

What do risk?  You risk him being a possible 1 shot werewolf.  Maybe he is a 1 shot PGO werewolf who used his role and hopes now that he's in limelight people will target him with PR and be killed, maybe he's a 1 shot bullet proof werewolf that already used it and wants to make sure he gets reloaded again, or maybe he's a 1 shot werewolf ability mod setup, or just wants ABT to waste his night action.  

If Samus is werewolf, that means TW very well could be as well.  TW claims Samus came up not guilty, could be two werewolves working a plan together to win it and look to both confirm one another.  Samus could be a alpha werewolf and why he would come out not guilty to TW, or again TW could be werewolf and know he's alpha werewolf to use that as a fall back.

If TW is werewolf, again Samus could be as well.  

Jazzy also though looks town for coming out about Rafay, could very well be werewolf as well.  All 3, in my eyes, could be werewolves and wouldn't count either out.  I been reading all that's being said, and at first I suspected TW was probably a werewolf cop(still very possible with roles already out there), but more Samus talks, more he looks more suspicious.

I can reveal other information but will hold onto it until I talk to Mod, as I don't want to feel like I'm "ruining" the game or be unfair, though I don't think my revealing it would do so, as I planned on revealing it anyway when I claimed, but in fairness to game I'll ask Kevin first.  Nothing I've said is me ruining the game, as it's my fair input on who I think possible werewolves are for which I was trying to find and my love for the game.

I hate doing this, merely giving up, but I don't have the effort to keep fighting and arguing for days on here when my death is all but set no matter what I claim.  Apologize for my scum team for doing so, but when the possible roles are known and none are possible ways I can spin it like a framer framed me or something, and left with Miller (not going to hold weight), or TW is lying when I know he's a cop (just don't know what faction), and at best I get people to believe me another day and lynch TW instead, I'm still dead next day.  Too many people left and too much against me to sit here and argue a doomed case with no real escape.  I may chime in my thoughts on werewolves as I see what others post and if I'm around tomorrow, but other then that I am just gonna sit back and read.

Rhizo's analysis of TW and Samus is bang on, I think. The only thing I have to add is that I still don't want to lynch Rhizo today. Rafay first, imo. If we wait to leave Rafay til tomorrow, we risk three kills tonight instead of two. We need as many people alive as possible. So my vote remains on Rafay, but Rhizo is dead tomorrow.

 

To be make sure this is not overlooked: imo AbT PLEASE DO NOT RELOAD SAMUS TONIGHT.

 

 

Samus is sketchy as all hell. First he claims Nurse, now claiming town Vig. Town Vig is not that important of a role tbh, and to claim nurse to steer possible scum/werewolves/SK away from lynching him is no way beneficial to town as now the 3 bad faction are likely to go after someone else, putting the likes of more important town roles in jeopardy. Not including the fact that he supposedly already used his ability, was out of shots, and yet still looked to fake RC to save a used up role that he couldn't reuse unless he actually came forward with his real one. Yet, he didn't come forward when he was out of shots D3 with his real role, he didn't come out D3 saying he killed Rafay, and now suddenly he has. You know what's easy to claim.....a werewolf claiming town Vig saying he killed MK. Whose going to call him out? If him and his other werewolves killed MK, it's not like scum or SK would come out and say, no he didn't. Let alone, the mere fact a Vig would use their ability N2, with little to go on besides a wagon on Imran, and risk killing a town member, for which he even admits MK was not anymore suspicious then the 6 other people on the wagon. A vig, picking 1 out of 7 possible people N2 to kill and risk killing off a good town member? Who does that. I bet he's not even a Vig at all, just a 1 shot type Werewolf character.

​Did he really roleclaim Nurse after? Wow..

​He would've already known there is a re-loader so he could say that's why but still.. it's all very odd. Combined with the risks of reloading Samus you laid out, it's an very compelling case for not relading him.

​A little wary of taken advice from scum but it seems like good, logical analysis to me.

 

Military - Delta Officers 1,102 posts Resources: Nation ID:593353 Souls Baptized:∞ Squadron:Alpha Rhizo's analysis of TW and Samus is bang on, I think. The only thing I have to add is that I still don't want to lynch Rhizo today. Rafay first, imo. If we wait to leave Rafay til tomorrow, we risk three kills tonight instead of two. We need as many people alive as possible. So my vote remains on Rafay, but Rhizo is dead tomorrow. To be make sure this is not overlooked: imo AbT PLEASE DO NOT RELOAD SAMUS TONIGHT.

​Lynching Rhizo today eh? Hmm.. that's an interesting idea. He is the only one we absolutely know for sure is scum.. but you do bring up a good point that Rafay could get more kills in. And Rafay not posting isn't helping his case.

​I guess lynching Rafay first is the better thing. I agree. 
​

 

Samus is sketchy as all hell. First he claims Nurse, now claiming town Vig. Town Vig is not that important of a role tbh, and to claim nurse to steer possible scum/werewolves/SK away from lynching him is no way beneficial to town as now the 3 bad faction are likely to go after someone else, putting the likes of more important town roles in jeopardy. Not including the fact that he supposedly already used his ability, was out of shots, and yet still looked to fake RC to save a used up role that he couldn't reuse unless he actually came forward with his real one. Yet, he didn't come forward when he was out of shots D3 with his real role, he didn't come out D3 saying he killed Rafay, and now suddenly he has. You know what's easy to claim.....a werewolf claiming town Vig saying he killed MK. Whose going to call him out? If him and his other werewolves killed MK, it's not like scum or SK would come out and say, no he didn't. Let alone, the mere fact a Vig would use their ability N2, with little to go on besides a wagon on Imran, and risk killing a town member, for which he even admits MK was not anymore suspicious then the 6 other people on the wagon. A vig, picking 1 out of 7 possible people N2 to kill and risk killing off a good town member? Who does that. I bet he's not even a Vig at all, just a 1 shot type Werewolf character.

 

​Did he really roleclaim Nurse after? Wow..

 

​He would've already known there is a re-loader so he could say that's why but still.. it's all very odd. Combined with the risks of reloading Samus you laid out, it's an very compelling case for not relading him.

 

​A little wary of taken advice from scum but it seems like good, logical analysis to me.

 

 

Military - Delta Officers 1,102 posts Resources: Nation ID:593353 Souls Baptized:∞ Squadron:Alpha Rhizo's analysis of TW and Samus is bang on, I think. The only thing I have to add is that I still don't want to lynch Rhizo today. Rafay first, imo. If we wait to leave Rafay til tomorrow, we risk three kills tonight instead of two. We need as many people alive as possible. So my vote remains on Rafay, but Rhizo is dead tomorrow. To be make sure this is not overlooked: imo AbT PLEASE DO NOT RELOAD SAMUS TONIGHT.

 

​Lynching Rhizo today eh? Hmm.. that's an interesting idea. He is the only one we absolutely know for sure is scum.. but you do bring up a good point that Rafay could get more kills in. And Rafay not posting isn't helping his case.

 

​I guess lynching Rafay first is the better thing. I agree. 

​

 

 

Yes, that occurred to me too. (The fact that he's the only one we know with absolute certainty is scum.) But I stick by what I said about Rafay getting an extra kill in.

wow

 

 

Night 1, there were 3 kills - supposedly 1 mafia, 1 werewolf & 1 SK? Night 2, there were 3 kills. But I used my action to target MK and kill him and so that means either 1 of the 3 scum faction were either inactive, an x shot SK or a faction's action was blocked. Night 3, inclined to think Rafay is an x shot as I don't believe all 3 actions got blocked last night

 

 

Can I assume from this that you are a 1-shot Vig and only used your power on N2 when you killed MK?

 

yes.

 

and ABT how don't we gain anything?

 

If Rhizo dies tonight, we have an extra day to lynch scum?

In addition, you don't think your third scenario is a VERY risky move to make from the point of view of a werewolf?

 

There are 10 towns, 4 scums at this moment. Assuming worse case scenario (no kills blocked all lynches are bad):

 

Scenario 1: If you're Vig and I reload you: We lynch Rafay and then 3 people die at night

- D5 there are 8 towns and 2 scums...we misslynch + 1NK

- D6 there are 6 towns and 2 scums...we misslynch + 1NK

- D7 there are 4 towns and 2 scums...we misslynch + 1NK

- D8 there are 2 towns and 2 scums - we lose

 

Scenario 2: If I don't reload you: We lynch Rafay and then 2 people die at night

- D5 there are 8 towns and 3 scums...we lynch Rhizo + 1NK

- D6 there are 7 towns and 2 scums...we misslynch + 1NK

- D7 there are 5 towns and 2 scums...we misslynch + 1NK

- D8 there are 3 towns and 2 scums - we misslynch + 1NK

- D9 there are 1 town and 2 scums - we lose

 

That's the math: worst case scenario we don't gain anything from reloading you. We actually get one more day to think and act if I don't reload you.

In scenario 1, f we manage to block a kill then we'd gain additional  misslynch chance, but getting that block is not something we can count on. 

 

To summarize, there's not much to be gained and I don't like the risk, especially considering your story and the coincidences that happened on N2...unless you can see some benefits?

Samus, on 24 Feb 2018 - 01:33, said:


In addition, you don't think your third scenario is a VERY risky move to make from the point of view of a werewolf?
 

Yeah, w can talk about it too. What are your thoughts about that?

so I havent had the time to read everything since Ive been busy AF, but one thing just does not make sense to me.  I dont get why Samus would lie about being the vig and claim nurse.  It is way to convenient to say "oh I am actually the vig and I rolled the dice and got lucky and killed MK"   

to me it just sounds like bait, and Samus is trying to get an extra kill as a PGO

 

if he was the vig and used his shot, why claim nurse after the shot is used?  He could have just claimed vig and said he killed MK right away and got his shot reloaded.  I do not really see any benefit from lying as town

if he was the vig and used his shot, why claim nurse after the shot is used?  He could have just claimed vig and said he killed MK right away and got his shot reloaded.  I do not really see any benefit from lying as town

 

 

i've explained this already. fake claim was to avoid being early NK'd. Nurse is pretty much just a vanilla town. If I RC'd my real role initially, you don't think I would've been dead earlier on in this game?

 

I mean I get that you guys are trying to be analytical and whatnot, but the PGO scenario and TW being wolf is extremely risky to come out with from the point of view of a werewolf at this point of the game atleast. The whole game everyone's had me in their "townie" book, it would be stupid for me "as a werewolf" to pull a move like that now and change the whole narative. It would be something maybe I would do if there were any heat on me.

 

In addition ABT, you only point out worst case scenario's. I hear you, but the best case scenario is truly to kill Rafay & Rhizo today. Your scenario with mis lynches should be a last resort strategy not the initial. Not realistic, but the primary goal should be to lynch scum daily. Killing Rafay & Rhizo tonight should be the goal.

Personally I am finding it hard to believe you.  You lied about being a nurse, and you admit it, so IMO anything you say becomes suspect and I hold almost no weight to your statements.  Rhizo still needs to die but I think you should be next 

 

I'll say the following. If samus isn't dead by tomorrow we have really dumb scum or he is scum.

 

is the objective of all mafia games to kill samus asap

 

Wait, now your a Vig, your too flip floppity. Samus has landed in my top suspects now. 

Personally I am finding it hard to believe you.  You lied about being a nurse, and you admit it, so IMO anything you say becomes suspect and I hold almost no weight to your statements.  Rhizo still needs to die but I think you should be next 

This sounds scummy as hell. A player lying about their role doesn't automatically mean they are scum, there are other motives to deceiving the players other than to form a wagon.

 

I lied partly because I wanted to stay alive longer, but also to see how that would influence others decisions.

 

So tell me who killed MK? And tell me why what reason I would be asking for a reload, if I were not town vig, other than to kill Rhizo tonight.

 

You can vote for me and push a wagon (doubt it will work though), but you'd just be doing the werewolf's work for them. We're on the same team >_>

 

Well maybe if you do decide to lynch me, then werewolves won't have to waste their kill on me, maybe they'd just kill TW instead and we'll be 2 town down.

 

 

 

I'll say the following. If samus isn't dead by tomorrow we have really dumb scum or he is scum.

 

is the objective of all mafia games to kill samus asap

 

Wait, now your a Vig, your too flip floppity. Samus has landed in my top suspects now. 

 

Maybe if you didn't ignore my posts, and actually read them, you'd understand what's happening

 

This is playing right into werewolves hands, you guys not seeing this. 

Thats just bad play Samus. 

 

 

 

 

Night 1, there were 3 kills - supposedly 1 mafia, 1 werewolf & 1 SK? Night 2, there were 3 kills. But I used my action to target MK and kill him and so that means either 1 of the 3 scum faction were either inactive, an x shot SK or a faction's action was blocked. Night 3, inclined to think Rafay is an x shot as I don't believe all 3 actions got blocked last night

 

 

Can I assume from this that you are a 1-shot Vig and only used your power on N2 when you killed MK?

 

 

yes.

 

and ABT how don't we gain anything?

 

If Rhizo dies tonight, we have an extra day to lynch scum?In addition, you don't think your third scenario is a VERY risky move to make from the point of view of a werewolf?

You still haven’t explained why you targeted MK. If you are a 1shot townie vig why would you use your one shot on night 1?