341 replies to this topic

[Lachiton]

Correct me if I am wrong but if you're getting both guilty and non-guilty results then you cant be naive or paranoid. So the next thing to figure out would be whether you're sane or insane.  

[The Warrior]

 

Wolfpacks, when you are back please clarify what your result was on Mandarijn. I don’t understand how you got no result.

Sorry my bad Didn't read it fully I got not guilty on Manderijn.

Eveybody seems to pointing figers at one anouther. We can't jump to conclusions so easily.

You can only go with the results your given mine said TW is guilty,

Sorry MK I misread I thought you was guilty on me.

 

 

 

Correct me if I am wrong but if you're getting both guilty and non-guilty results then you cant be naive or paranoid. So the next thing to figure out would be whether you're sane or insane.  

I believe you are correct.

 

A naïve cop will only return town results. Wolfpacks got a "guilty" result on me so he cannot be naïve.

A paranoid cop will only return non-town results. Wolfpacks got a "not guilty" result on Mandarijn so he cannot be paranoid.

 

I know that I am town so it stands to reason that Wolfpacks is an Insane Cop. This re-affirms my belief that Mandarijn is scum. My vote will stand on Mandarijn.

 

Just to re-iterate my point on Mandarijn when I first voted for him:

 

 

So Brewers ended up being a role cop. Well, that sucks.. I think that we might at least have something to work with now though.

 

When I first pressed Brewers and voted for him for not reading the game rules he ended up making a comment about how he was town and could "prove it". The only real way that Brewers could strongly indicate his towniness in this game (especially so early in the game) would be for him to out a scum. While this wouldn't 100% make him town since it could be a long game play if the scum sacrificed someone early, the odds are that Brewers outing a scum so early would more likely indicate that he was town since the mafia can't really afford to lose 1/3 of their team on day 2.

 

So what did Brewers do on day 2 that could help? He voted for Mandarijn.

 

He said that his vote on Mandarijn was because he was joking and adding another "no lynch" vote on day 1. I think it's possible that Brewers investigated Mandarijn on night 1, received a "goon" result on him, and then voted for him saying that it was for Mandarijn's joke on day 1 when really he knew Mandarijn was a goon and was just trying to pass the information to the town without having to role claim in case he died.

 

i suppose I should take my troll/lulz vote off mandy now lol

 

unvote

 

vote:  no lynch

 

we have enough cops that we dont need to really lynch someone yet until we have something more concrete to go on, and all scum are goons, so they have no power roles

 

 

I'm not asking you to share it yet but I am curious about what proof you could have that would clear you unequivocally.

 

 

i guess it wouldnt 100% clear me, but with this format for the game it is probably as close to 100% clearing someone as possible

Brewers eventually doubled down on his play here too. He ended up unvoting for Mandarijn, again saying that his vote was a joke. This could have been Brewers way to try to make sure that he survived night 2 by not going too hard after Mandarijn when it was unlikely that he would be able to get anyone else to vote for him. Had Brewers survived night 2 my guess is that he would have returned to the Mandarijn discussion at some point.

 

Vote: Mandarijn

 

Think about it honestly. We've already had a now known role cop (Brewers) investigate Mandarijn. The day after the now known role cop did his only investigation he only voted for one individual -- Mandarijn.

 

The only possible way that Mandarijn isn't scum is if Brewers was an "insane" role cop. 1) I'm not sure a role cop can be insane, 2) I would think that Brewers insane modifier would have become known upon his death.

 

@iSocialism - If players with modifiers such as "insane" are killed, will their modifiers become known upon their death?

 

If the answer to this question is yes, then we know for sure that Brewers was sane and it's likely that Mandarijn is scum. If the answer to the question is no, then we don't know for sure that Mandarijn is scum but I am still reasonably confident that he is.

[Wolfpacks]

Look at the evidence im pretty sure im sane so I get back a guilty on The Warrior, who also voted for Brewers and now has switched his attention on Manderijn, in the meanwhile he is now trying to convince you im insane, not being able to read the thread most of the day gets you thinking, my gut feeling says he's scum and my head says he's scum, together with my investigation of him, I made the mistake of not listening to my feelings before this time i know im right, you know by MKs investigation I'm town my vote stays with The Warrior.

[iSocialism]

Modifiers will be known upon that person death.

[The Warrior]

Modifiers will be known upon that person death.

Bam.

 

Brewers was sane -> Brewers was a role cop who got in one investigation -> Brewers voted for one person after his investigation -> My money is on Mandarijn being scum -> My vote is for Mandarijn.

 

Look at the evidence im pretty sure im sane so I get back a guilty on The Warrior, who also voted for Brewers and now has switched his attention on Manderijn, in the meanwhile he is now trying to convince you im insane, not being able to read the thread most of the day gets you thinking, my gut feeling says he's scum and my head says he's scum, together with my investigation of him, I made the mistake of not listening to my feelings before this time i know im right, you know by MKs investigation I'm town my vote stays with The Warrior.

What evidence do you have of your sanity? How is a guilty result on me and a not guilty result on Mandarijn lead you to believe you're sane? You are speculating based off of only your results.

 

I can say with 100% certainty that I am town so therefore I can say with 100% certainty that your results were modified. You got two different results therefore you can only be insane. Your insanity returning a "not guilty" result on Mandarijn coupled with my suspicion that Brewers investigated him and received a "Goon" result on him makes me 100% sure that Mandarijn is scum. If I was scum, a 1-for-1 trade with Mandarijn would be one of the dumbest moves I could make. Lynch Mandarijn today and you will see me proven right.

 

@Everyone - Deadline is Saturday. Anyone else want to chime in on this discussion or add anything of their own to consider?

[Rafay]

Brewers was a role cop who got in one investigation -> Brewers voted for one person after his investigation -> My money is on Mandarijn being scum -> My vote is for Mandarijn.

 

But how would brewsers know he was sane? 

[The Warrior]

I'm sure that he assumed that he was and voted accordingly. We now know for certain that Brewers was sane so if he truly investigated Mandarijn and received a goon result, we know that Mandarijn is scum.

[Wolfpacks]

If you ask any con what they are in for they will say they are innocent, even 100% for sure, we can all take someone's word to say they are not guilty. You The Warrior are a very skilled player and can turn any bad press to your advantage, so i counter, you have two differing opinions at the moment I see 2 ways to go, lynch Manderijn who so far as far as I can know has not yet argued TWs accusations or lynch The Warrior who has been investigated and found guilty and who has protested his innocence maybe a little too vigorously.

[The Warrior]

A role cop would want to make sure his result was known before dying, especially one that found scum.

[Wolfpacks]

Brewers voted no lynch Day 2 not manderijn
It was a lolz vote not though any evidence

[Colonel Medved]

Role Cop

Sane Cop \

Insane Cop \

Paranoid Cop > Players will only be told they're cops, not if they are; Sane, Insane, Paranoid, or Naive.

Naive Cop /

1-Shot Cop

Day Cop

Publishing Cop

 

 

From what the OP says, it looks like the Role Cop would know if they are a Role Cop. Am i correct in assuming this? (since there isn't a "\" next to Role Cop) 

[The Warrior]

If you ask any con what they are in for they will say they are innocent, even 100% for sure, we can all take someone's word to say they are not guilty. You The Warrior are a very skilled player and can turn any bad press to your advantage, so i counter, you have two differing opinions at the moment I see 2 ways to go, lynch Manderijn who so far as far as I can know has not yet argued TWs accusations or lynch The Warrior who has been investigated and found guilty and who has protested his innocence maybe a little too vigorously.

Listen mate, I can lead you to water but I can't make you drink it. Far too often mafia players overlook the obvious because they feel like they are being mislead. That isn't happening here.

 

Let me ask you this, if I was scum what do I really gain from going after Mandarijn? Do you believe that I believe that a 1-for-1 proposition is worth it? Really? If I am as skilled a player as you claim to believe you would realize that this play would not be worthwhile for me.

 

And it's not that I'm just going after someone to try to divert attention away from the guilty result you got on me in hopes that I could take a townie with me. I made my original argument against Mandarijn 12 hours (and 15 posts) BEFORE you revealed your guilty result on me. I had no idea that I had been investigated at that point so that argument wouldn't even be valid.

[Wolfpacks]

As I've always said I can only go by the results that are given to me, until proven wrong I'm not insane so using that logic you must be a goon,(Sorry don't like the scum context that is given to a more personal grievance then here)

yes mate you can lead me to water doesn't mean I have to drink, but if you dangle a carrot in front of a donkey you can lead him anywhere you like

[Mandarijn]

Wow, this day has finally gained some momentum it seems, but it seems TW is trying to get me lynched...

 

1st he tries with a 'soft' reason using brewers' lol vote, just to see if he can get some traction. If it didn't work he probably wouldn't have cared that much, but at least he tried with some kind of reason. If it had worked he could've just said: "Well, maybe it was indeed a lol vote..." The thing is brewers didn't give any clue at all of his night result, he literally could've investigated anyone and he didn't know his sanity and if he should trust the result. So he kept quiet, like most of us did to see what the next night would bring. Unfortunately he got killed that night. He did indeed vote for me, but he gave a clear reason for that when he took his vote off: "i suppose I should take my troll/lulz vote off mandy now lol". You didn't go further into this 'reason' after I posted, as you knew that pushing this further would only compromise yourself when you did get me lynched and pushed to hard, because no one was buying into it...

 

Then Wolfpacks comes out with his results and TW realizes that those results indicate that TW and I can't be on the same team (before or after Lachiton posted), so he just tries to use the lol vote from brewers, to get at least some kind of evidence on me. He got lucky he already brought this up before Wolfpacks posted his results it seems. Otherwise it's just 50/50 on who'll get lynched 1st. Because he also knows that if I get lynched 1st and I turn out to be town, that he'll be lynched tomorrow, so now he just tries to get 1 more mislynch before he gets lynched himself.

 

Vote: The Warrior

 

Now I'm off to bed.

[The Warrior]

Oh goody! The scum has come out to play.

Now, unlike how I mentioned that me going after Mandarijn wasn’t just me trying to take a townie with me, it is exactly the opposite for Mandarijn. He knows that I’ve got him at this point and won’t let go. So of course he votes for me. Taking me out first would be a win for him as a scum because it’s probably me or him now. If he goes first, the mafia loses a player without gaining anything in return. He knows the only “win” he can extract from this situation is to see me go first since then he at least managed to take a townie out with him.

So I’ll go ahead and ask for it. Since all townies are cops (granted they are different types of cop) it wouldn’t hurt for Mandarijn to post his nighttime results. So, let’s hear it mate. Who did you investigate on night 1 and night 2 and what were the results?

Also, please chime in on this situation everyone. If you are a townie you are invested in the outcome here. You are guaranteed to find a scum between Mandarijn and Myself (hint: it’s mandarijn) due to wolfpacks getting two different results. That is a 50/50 chance. Think logically through the arguments and ask yourself who you believe more.

And for the rest of the town, pay close attention to anyone who tries to avoid this particular conversation. This is exactly the type of argument that mafia like to avoid who aren’t under the gun.

[SeaBeeGipson]

Well, I investigated TW on N1 and got "Not Guilty", and My second one was on brewers cause the town was adamant on him being investigated and I got nothing. 

If that is true, then I'm possibly an insane cop or along those lines.

If you can investigate, you're a town cop and my guilty result on you gives me a good idea of my sanity if this is true

[SeaBeeGipson]

Oh goody! The scum has come out to play.

Now, unlike how I mentioned that me going after Mandarijn wasn’t just me trying to take a townie with me, it is exactly the opposite for Mandarijn. He knows that I’ve got him at this point and won’t let go. So of course he votes for me. Taking me out first would be a win for him as a scum because it’s probably me or him now. If he goes first, the mafia loses a player without gaining anything in return. He knows the only “win” he can extract from this situation is to see me go first since then he at least managed to take a townie out with him.

So I’ll go ahead and ask for it. Since all townies are cops (granted they are different types of cop) it wouldn’t hurt for Mandarijn to post his nighttime results. So, let’s hear it mate. Who did you investigate on night 1 and night 2 and what were the results?

Also, please chime in on this situation everyone. If you are a townie you are invested in the outcome here. You are guaranteed to find a scum between Mandarijn and Myself (hint: it’s mandarijn) due to wolfpacks getting two different results. That is a 50/50 chance. Think logically through the arguments and ask yourself who you believe more.

And for the rest of the town, pay close attention to anyone who tries to avoid this particular conversation. This is exactly the type of argument that mafia like to avoid who aren’t under the gun.

It makes sense that if Wolfpacks had two different results, one is scum, one is town. I have to read back to see what about Brewers voting him. It could've been a lulz vote, or a hinted vote (like me voting Robert before I even claimed to have got a guilty on him).

Why wolfpacks is so adamant about his sanity is weird, as if he knows his sanity, which none of us do. 

[The Warrior]

I am 100% certain that Brewers vote on Mandarijn was serious and was only played off as a lolz vote when he knew that he wasn’t going to get the traction necessary to lynch Mandarijn yesterday. If you were a role cop (arguably the most important role in this game setup) and knew a scum on day 2 but also knew that you weren’t going to be able to convince enough people to vote for him that day, what would you do? Probably the same thing Brewers did. Play it off as lolz, hope the scum believed that it was just a lolz vote, and live to investigate another day.

Unfortunately Brewers was killed anyway that night. And why was he killed that night? Because the scum figured out the only way that Brewers could nearly “prove” his townieness. Only one role in this game could do that so early in the game — a role cop who had already investigated a scum and could hand him over to be lynched. Brewers struck gold with his investigation. The scum knew it and killed him before he could investigate further or officially make his case against Mandarijn today.

Brewers did the one thing that a good town power role would do with such damning evidence. He left a trail for the town in case he died. I picked up that trail and coupled it with Wolfpacks results, and my own knowledge that I am town and can now prove the alignments of wolfpacks, Mandarijn, and myself in addition to being able to tell the town what wolfpacks full role is. Even though wolfpacks is so sure that he is sane the funny thing about it is that the only two people who actually know his true insanity are myself and Mandarijn. Wolfpacks got guilty on me and I know I’m Town. Wolfpacks got a second different result of not guilty on Mandarijn (and he knows he’s scum) which only leaves two choices for wolfpacks’ role. Since I know I’m Town I also know that wolfpacks is insane which means Mandarijn is scum.

So what are the scenarios we’re facing now:
1) Lynch Mandarijn today. If he is scum (he is) then the town has killed 1/3 of the scum team. I will then die tonight because I will be the only confirmed townie in the game. The town then knows wolfpacks is also town going into day 3 and knows that he is insane moving forward so all of his results will be opposite of what they really are. The scum gets 1 kill for 1 after the night kill.
2) Lynch me today. I will be revealed as a town Publishing Cop and the mafia will have managed to take me out today and kill a second townie tonight before Mandarijn is lynched tomorrow. The scum gets 2 kills for 1 after I’m lynched and the night kill.

By the way if I am lynched today I guarantee you the night kill tonight will be wolfpacks. Wolfpacks will become the only other confirmed townie after my role is revealed and since it will be proven that he knows he is insane going forward, the town will know exactly how to interpret his results to their benefit. By lynching me today and the scum killing wolfpacks tonight, the town will be in no better position than we are today, there will not be any confirmed townies at that point, the town will be missing a vocal and active voice (me), and will be losing the real knowledge that wolfpacks’ results bring going forward.

The worst case scenario for town if I’m lying and you choose to Lynch Mandarijn today is that you will be down one person and can Lynch me tomorrow.

But the worst case scenario for town if Mandarijn is lying and you choose to Lynch me today is that you lose me and wolfpacks back to back and have nothing to work with moving forward other than knowing Mandarijn is scum then.

If Mandarijn is lynched today the scum will have to choose who to kill at night — me a confirmed townie, or wolfpacks a now 100% guaranteed insane cop. At least this way they don’t get both of us in one day/night. And whichever of us they don’t kill tonight will get to investigate and hopefully have something to share tomorrow.

[Robert2424]

Well, We need to figure out peoples sanity. only way we will learn is either by lynch or by mafia killing somebody we've investigated and we can only control one, who we actually lynch. 

 

If I am to follow Wolfpacks logic, I must believe TW is town. I wish we had more from Brewers, but its our best bet. 

 

It makes the most sense to at least try it, since we have nothing else to go on. The only way we will know is if we go down this path. 

 

Vote Mandarijn

 

I don't wish to lynch TW cause I believe he is town up to this point. I have my investigation on him, and we have Brewers vote from yesterday that points towards Mandarijn.  If he investigated him, he should of just said he is a role cop and found scum. But I don't see another option right now thats Viable. 

My only thing is we need to decide who to investigate tomorrow. If TW is Scum, then I'm getting the wrong result. 

[iSocialism]

Vote count: Day Thrice

1. Lord MK (0);
2. Colonel MedVed (2); Rafay, KitKat16
3. Brewersalliance Killed Night Two
4. Robert2424 (0);
5. The Warrior (2); Wolfpack, Mandarjin
6. SeaBeaGipson (0);
7. KevinH killed night one
8. Lachiton (0);
9. Rafay (1); Colonel Medved
10. Canik (0);
11. Mandarijn (2); The Warrior, Robert2424
12. KitKat16 (0);
13. Wolfpack (0);

14. No Lynch (0);

Not voting: Lachiton, Canik, Lord MK, SeaBeaGipson


With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch, or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is Saturday, July 7th , 2018 at 10:00 CN Time