Well... things are not slowing down. The Supremes effectively killed the Unions this morning, Trump will be sitting down with Putin, Little Kimmy has killed all anti-USA propaganda in North Korea, a Trade War is about to begin, US GDP is projected to hit 5%, and Justice Anthony Kennedy is retiring, paving the way for Trump to add another Gorsuch to the Supreme Court before the 2018 midterms...

 

I'm not at all tired of all this winning, but the left is throwing out their old Trump haters and nominating young Socialists to run in November... they are losing their collective Progressive minds. Time to start talking about the upcoming 2018 midterm elections. This is a fine place to start.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFRHX6glTSM

I just finished watching the Republican debate for Florida Governor. It's not my state but I do like Ron DeSantis. I will support him from Nevada, which means nothing really, but he'll work well with current Governor Rick Scott, as he shows that useless, squishy, Democrat, Senator Bill Nelson the door. I already hear him crying, "I'm a centrist... really". He will be retiring along with Justice Anthony Kennedy.

 

Speaking of Justice Anthony Kennedy... I'm hearing all kinds of whining and blaming about Mitch McConnell, Merrick Garland, Trump, and how Schumer can stop it, and if this happens the world is coming to an end.

 

Okay, reality has to sink in. Merrick Garland is not a Supreme Court Justice today, because Republicans had majority in 2016... that's it. Mitch McConnell will get Trump's choice confirmed before the midterms, because Republicans have the majority in 2018. That's it. Schumer cannot do anything to stop it because he tried to filibuster Neil Gorsuch in 2017, which forced McConnell to change the filibuster rules to get his confirmation. That's it. Mitch McConnell changed the filibuster rules because Harry Reid changed the filibuster rules in 2013. That's it.

 

Nothing can be done by anyone that will prevent this from happening. This is what holding the majority in the Senate means. Everyone whining about it needs to look at everything that has happened in the past decade, and come to terms with it. There is only one person that can be blamed for Justice Kennedy retiring. That is Justice Kennedy. He has chosen President Donald Trump to replace him when he knows for sure he has the majority to replace him properly. It was a well thought out decision.

 

My only advice to anyone that doesn't like it, is to do what you legally can to change it... if you can.

We did it between 2010-2014, and we earned it.

Whoever replaces Justice Kennedy will likely be a more ardent supporter of the Constitution and Conservatism. So that is a big win for us as it firmly plants the Supreme Court in conservative hands. I am hopeful this will finally mean the Supreme Court will finally start hearing 'Assault Weapon Ban' Cases. The theory has been the Court refused to take it on due to Justice Kennedy's tendency to flip flop. And if Kennedy voted with the liberal Justices, it could take decades for the Supreme Court to take up the argument again in attempts to reverse it. Better to play it safe then lose it all in one bad ruling.

 

My opinion is that the alleged 'Blue Tidal Wave' is going to be a gigantic flop. Not only do Democrats get low turnout in Midterm Elections, but their aggressive tactics are alienating middle America. Just look at Maxine Waters, she practically went rouge against party lines encouraging harassment against Republicans (if you preach violence and toxic behavior I highly doubt God is on your side ). So Schumer had to go into damage control mode to shut that down fast. It doesn't matter too much what the Democrat voter base heard. Because everyone else heard the thinly veiled threat, We know who you Trump Supporters are, we are going to hunt you down, and we are going to use mob mentality to harass, threaten, and if necessary use violence against you. I distinctly remember reading about Kristallnacht (Night of the Broken Glass) in history class. The difference between that event and now, is that we have the armament to defend ourselves.

 

Its still way too early to call, but using the raw numbers, there are 35 Senate seats up for election, 9 are held by Republicans. So that automatically puts the Democrats on the defensive of having to defend a large majority seats. Its still a distinct possibility the Democrats could regain control of the Senate but it wouldn't be by much. We might see a 50-50 split, or 51-49 in favor of the Democrats. I think that is the absolute best they can do. The numbers just aren't in their favor this election. As for the House, I expect the Republicans to lose a few seats but not enough to make much of a difference.

 

What does everyone else think? Will we see a Blue Tidal Wave or a Red Dawn?

I believe the one determining factor that elected Trump was the open court seat, and there are a few that are saying we should keep the seat open to drive Republicans to vote in the midterm... I myself do not support that strategy. It's way too risky with something way too important to gamble with. We really need the safe move right now. Fill that seat with a solid supporter of the Constitution right away.

 

Democrats will have a big day in November. The problem is, they will vote much stronger in areas they already have. In other words... the blue will get much bluer. Republicans have always ruled the midterms because we are more serious about voting. I heard some Democrat talking about how big their tent is. The tent has a side on the west coast, and a side in the northeast. They don't think about that vast red space in between. I think we will pick up seats in the Senate... the House will be close, but I believe in our voters.

Hello there.

 

Mind if I drop in?

Hello there.

 

Mind if I drop in?

Of course you can post Rafay. Everyone from all over the world can participate on the IRON forum... I always want to hear what's on your mind... doesn't mean I will agree with it though.

All I can say is... wow. There is power behind this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Pjs7uoOkag

Watching the Kavanaugh hearing today, and I have to say, I was absolutely amazed with Senator Ben Sasse.

 

Senator Ben Sasse is a Never-Trump Republican from Nebraska. He absolutely hates Donald Trump, because Trump is not a real Conservative Republican, and we all know Trump has not lived the life of one. Ben is the first one to call out Trump for not living "Presidential". I myself... I am all for Trump's re-election in 2020... but when Trump is done, I will support Ben Sasse for President, if he decides to run. I know him well, but this has sold me completely that he has what it takes to build off Trump's accomplishments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJK2JveCAbI

All I can say is... wow. There is power behind this.

-#walkaway video-

"There is power behind this." < Yeah, like Putin? xD

 

Or maybe some conservative group. Because while the guy's story is relatable to many Dems.. it's oddly late and oddly specificly designed to hurt Democrats while leaving Republicans alone. There are people on both sides that are disgusting. One example we'll all know is the guy who drove over the Charlottesville protestors. And if you talk to both sides you undoubtably will hear Republicans saying dumb or hateful stuff. 

 

I mean, when you tell someone to #walkaway from the Dems many would naturally look towards the only other major party. That there was absolutely no disclaimer at all that Repubs have their own issues smells fishy to me. Too one-sided.

 

 

 

Senator Ben Sasse is a Never-Trump Republican from Nebraska. He absolutely hates Donald Trump, because Trump is not a real Conservative Republican, and we all know Trump has not lived the life of one. Ben is the first one to call out Trump for not living "Presidential". I myself... I am all for Trump's re-election in 2020... but when Trump is done, I will support Ben Sasse for President, if he decides to run. I know him well, but this has sold me completely that he has what it takes to build off Trump's accomplishments.

 

Good speech. Would love to see him run. 

 

 

 

One example we'll all know is the guy who drove over the Charlottesville protestors.

Charlottesville happened because a hate group held a permitted rally, and the opposite hate group decided to crash their rally. When this scenario was allowed to take place, I believed people would be killed. I'm utterly shocked that only one died. The blame for Charlottesville rests solely on the city officials that allowed those people to walk on the same ground. A Mayor that would allow something like that to happen in their city should be immediately, and unceremoniously, thrown out of office.

 

 

Or maybe some conservative group.

No... nothing to do with Conservatives. I posted this when Brandon Straka first started his Walk Away Campaign. I'm not too interested in it because I'm a lifelong Republican, I never walked away because I was never there, and I don't do Facebook... but my wife has followed it since the start because she is absolutely amazed by all their stories. I don't believe his campaign will have much impact, because the last update I heard was around 180,000 people have joined his "movement"... I don't think that's enough.

This is a hilarious way for a heckler to be dismissed from a Congressional hearing. Rep. Billy Long from the great State of Missouri.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WolVEMFbUcs

Cynthia Nixon, from "Sex and the City" fame, is running for Governor of New York against sitting Democrat Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo is a staunch Progressive... Cynthia Nixon is running to Cuomo's left as a stone Socialist. I have no idea why Cuomo was stupid enough to debate this woman. He was 30 points ahead of her in those unreliable polls, but even unreliable polls can't be that wrong. So, it boggles the mind why Cuomo would be so utterly brain dead to allow her on the same stage... oh sorry, he's a Progressive, that explains it.

 

Oh well, on with Nixon's new idea... she is calling to pass Universal Single-Payer Healthcare for the State of New York... She has no idea how to pay for it, but they should just pass it and figure out how to fund it later. This would turn New York City into the largest ghetto in America inside one year. Now Cuomo has countered saying that it's too expensive, he wants the U.S. Congress to pass Federal Universal Healthcare instead. I get it... it's too damn expensive for New York to pay for their own healthcare, so brilliant, Progressive, Andrew Cuomo wants all the rest of us to pay for it. That'll work. Geez...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/09/05/cynthia-nixon-on-getting-single-payer-health-care-in-new-york-pass-it-and-then-figure-out-how-to-fund-it.html

It was quite interesting watching two rotten to the core Democrats claw eachother to pieces in that debate. Regardless of which one of them gets the nomination, NY still ends up with a loser. This year will mark the first time I am voting Libertarian, as I am voting for Larry Sharpe for Governor. Sharpe is a great man and I prefer him over our RINO nominee. Voter turnout in NY is abysmal for both Republicans and Democrats. So if we can actually get enough New Yorkers to stop complaining and go out and vote, we have a slim shot at getting Sharpe in.

 

I was just informed by my job 2 days ago we are all getting a large raise this year, the biggest single increase in decades. And was then promptly told your health insurance will go up in January, the cost estimated to be roughly half of your raise. My insurance is still semi decent but the upfront weekly cost is starting to get ridiculous. The strategy seems to be, everything stays exactly the same you just have to pay more and more and more....

 

 

Regardless of which one of them gets the nomination, NY still ends up with a loser.

Good luck my friend, congrats on the raise, but I know New York is a state that heavily abused that tax loophole with writing off State taxes on Federal returns. I'm in Nevada... we don't have State taxes here. I think you're gonna need that raise, and your employer knows it too. A Libertarian Governor in New York would be a welcome change, because all you have within the two major parties are different shades of blue. It was very telling when Nixon tells Cuomo to stop lying, and he comes back with "As soon as you do".

A Libertarian Governor in New York would be a welcome change, because all you have within the two major parties are different shades of blue. It was very telling when Nixon tells Cuomo to stop lying, and he comes back with "As soon as you do".

We do have a few very strong conservative politicians and supporters in Upstate NY. But the majority of NY Republican politicians are spineless and afraid of taking too strong of a stand. They fear losing their elections and what little control of the NY government they possess. For a bunch of people that claimed it was time to kick out our corrupt government, infringing on our rights, and taxing us into oblivion. Those who complained the loudest stayed home on election day in 2014, for our last Governor election. With barely any upstate Republican voters, NYC alone was responsible for reelecting Cuomo.

 

This is why I largely stopped attending political rallies. New York voters rarely follow through on their speeches and grandstanding. Everyone loves to talk tough and loudly proclaim "their days are numbered, things are finally going to change in a couple months", well I'll believe it when I finally see it. If the past is any indication, absolutely nothing in NY government will improve.

Well, here they come...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKUlrfCWSQQ

Another example of Progressives that are horribly dishonest. I wake up this morning and turn on the news, and here's a clip of Barack Obama speaking to the collective. Now this is the very same Obama that for 8 years blamed George W. Bush for his shitty economy, now trying to take credit for the first 2 years of Donald Trump.

 

I get it. Barack Obama was not responsible for anything while he was President, but he's responsible for everything since he left office. What a bunch of bullshit. There are 2 reasons the economy has exploded... tax cuts and deregulation... period, and it will explode again when Trump finishes the trade deals with Canada and the EU. Shameful Democrats have to turn to him for help.

 

More shameful is the lost media hacks that continue supporting the lies.

Another example of Progressives that are horribly dishonest. I wake up this morning and turn on the news, and here's a clip of Barack Obama speaking to the collective. Now this is the very same Obama that for 8 years blamed George W. Bush for his shitty economy, now trying to take credit for the first 2 years of Donald Trump.

 

I get it. Barack Obama was not responsible for anything while he was President, but he's responsible for everything since he left office. What a bunch of bullshit. There are 2 reasons the economy has exploded... tax cuts and deregulation... period, and it will explode again when Trump finishes the trade deals with Canada and the EU. Shameful Democrats have to turn to him for help.

 

More shameful is the lost media hacks that continue supporting the lies.

Well of course he wants to take credit.  That guys ego is insanely huge.  I mean you are talking about the guy who said 'I killed bin laden"

 

 

Also, I saw arguably the lowest political add of my life last night.  Tammy Baldwin ran an add with just some woman who is battling cancer speaking... how low is that to try to take advantage of that woman's suffering and potential death just to try to move some numbers at the polls. 

Too funny

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/maxine-waters-halloween-billboard-made-by-la-street-artist-sabo-1153715

hahahahahahahahaha

 

I cant stand that woman.  she is bat shit crazy

What are your predictions for mid terms? I'm really excited and can't wait till Tuesday.

 

I think Dems win lower house and GOP keeps senate and governors.

What are your predictions for mid terms? I'm really excited and can't wait till Tuesday.

 

I think Dems win lower house and GOP keeps senate and governors.

It's really hard to say. I can't get away from my bad habit of following polls. I thought Hillary Clinton was going to win by a large margin in 2016, because I follow polls. My wife on the other hand, does not follow polls and said Trump was gonna win when he came down the escalator, and she never wavered, not once, from her support. I was all prepared to be the shoulder for her to cry on when he lost, but it turned into an all night celebration. The polls, and all the talking heads on TV and the papers, were all miserably wrong.

 

I haven't seen any of them make a correction. They are doing everything the same way they have always done it. So if something was wrong in 2016, it's still wrong today. It seems that most polling is done by Trump haters, and they tend to only talk to each other. Plus, I know for a fact that a lot of Republicans, and Trump supporters, keep their personal views private, because they know they will get bashed for it, and lead to arguments.

 

Early voting is a Democrat thing, Republicans are traditionalists and like to stick to election day. This was the very first time in my life I voted early. Republican numbers for early voting is very strong, and I really expect them to be just as strong on Tuesday.

 

That being said, I do expect the statewide elections to favor Republicans. The House is all local, and I expect Blue to just get Bluer, and Red to just get Redder. So prediction wise, I will stick with my bad habit and say the Democrats take the House, and Republicans will expand their majority in the Senate. My wife, on the other hand, is a true believer... she says Red Wave all the way. I will not make the same mistake by telling her she is not living in reality. The economy is real, but the hate for Donald Trump is just as real.

After 2016 I too have lost belief/faith in the polls buddy. But I'm going mostly on gut feeling. You see that Dems are bringing out the big guns like Obama and Hillary for campaigning and the rallies have shown good crowd response/attendance. So it just seems to me that Dems make take 220-225 in lower house while senate will be 52-48 GOP.

 

And yes the country will get further split along party lines with every election, I wholeheartedly agree with you on that note.

Most of the people going with "I don't belief the polls/predictions" generally don't understand what actual polling or predictions are. Couple this with some idiotic click-bait sites that went for ludricous "+95% Hillary" stuff and you indeed get bad faith in it.

 

For Polling: the metrics and adjustments behind polling are ever changing and ever updating, no respectable polling place wants to keep missing the obvious, like no kitching will keep forgetting to add salt.

 

For Predictions: take everything both with a grain of salt BUT also understand what an actual prediction means. For instance 538 (which got mentioned here and is only an aggregator!) had a Trump win more likely then you flipping a coin and get heads twice. Predictions are run in "big numbers/volumes" and are percentages, they aren't a "50%+1 WINS!" type deal.

 

And lastly, don't underestimate the November Surprise and its impact on still undecided voters.