494 replies to this topic

[brewersalliance]

 

It did.  There's one more townie alive than otherwise.

can't prove it, it's probable but not 100% true. We could have gotten a scum

 

yeah there would be about a 23-30% chance we would have gotten scum if we lynched someone randomly d1

[iSocialism]

You would have to know the number of scum to get the true chance/probability. The chance is high of hitting town, but you can't 100% say that you would be down a town player if you lynched. You would only be down a player if you lynched.

If you want to go off the chance theory we shouldn't lynch today either because we have a higher chance of hitting town.

It's playing the retrospective card.
- no one is lynch, you can say. See we didn't lynched a town.
- town is lynched, you can say. See we shouldn't have lynched. Then deflect to the idea that scum is on the wagon.
- mafia is lynched. Lesser chance and you can say luck.

Kevin is only protecting himself during a d1 NL. For if voted for anything else he would be lynched. You can add that we did t lynched a town, but we also didn't lynched a scum or developed wagons analysis.

[brewersalliance]

can we get a vote count?  we have what, 2 days until deadline?

[KevinH]

We might as well rehash the D1 no-lynch theory since nobody has anything else to say.

 

• The "random" candidate won't be random because scum will try to influence the choice of candidate to be town.
• If the candidate somehow is scum, the scum won't vote for their own so it take more townies to actually effect a lynch.
• Analysis of the lynch wagon isn't particularly useful because if a townie gets lynched, you can't assume it was scum that did it.
• If a scum gets lynched it's very easy to have one of his buddies on the wagon and then look like a townie for the rest of the game.

[brewersalliance]

the last 7 or so games have all been no lynch d1

 

there is almost no point to even having a d1 if all we are ever going to do is no lynch and fluff post.  might as well just start our games with a night start

 

D1 is basically just a waste of time in our recent games since no lynch has seemed to take over the community for thoughts on what to do no matter the set up

[The Warrior]

We have three days until the deadline. Here is where I think we are as of now:

 

 

Unofficial Vote Count

Colonel Medved (3): SeaBeeGipson, KevinH, The Warrior
Jazzy95 (2): MsShawdi, Robert2424
Wolfpacks (2): brewersalliance, iSocialism

Robert2424 (2): Wolfpacks, Jazzy95
MsShawdi (0):
The Warrior (0):
Canik (0):
SeaBeeGipson (0):
Rafay (0):
Brewersalliance (0):
KevinH (0):
iSocialism (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting: Colonel Medved, Rafay, Canik

with 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.

Deadline is on 30th August, at 11 pm CN time.

[SeaBeeGipson]

We have three days until the deadline. Here is where I think we are as of now:
 
 
Unofficial Vote Count

Colonel Medved (3): SeaBeeGipson, KevinH, The Warrior
Jazzy95 (2): MsShawdi, Robert2424
Wolfpacks (2): brewersalliance, iSocialism
Robert2424 (2): Wolfpacks, Jazzy95
MsShawdi (0):
The Warrior (0):
Canik (0):
SeaBeeGipson (0):
Rafay (0):
Brewersalliance (0):
KevinH (0):
iSocialism (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting: Colonel Medved, Rafay, Canik

with 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.

Deadline is on 30th August, at 11 pm CN time.

Based off this count it looks like we might end with a no lynch anyway

[The Warrior]

Current post count:

brewersalliance 34

Robert2424 32

KevinH 19

Rafay 12

The Warrior 12

Jazzy95 11

Lord MK 11

Wolfpacks 10

iSocialism 10

Canik 9

SeaBeeGipson 9

Colonel Medved 8

MsShawdi 7

Lachiton 4

 

@SBG/Colonel MedVed/MsShawdi - Any other thoughts to share?

[Lord MK]

there is almost no point to even having a d1 if all we are ever going to do is no lynch and fluff post.

“Sometimes you gotta run before you can walk.”
- Tony Stark

Vote Count

Colonel Medved (3): SeaBeeGipson, KevinH, The Warrior
Jazzy95 (2): MsShawdi, Robert2424
Wolfpacks (2): brewersalliance, iSocialism
Robert2424 (2): Wolfpacks, Jazzy95
MsShawdi (0):
The Warrior (0):
Canik (0):
SeaBeeGipson (0):
Rafay (0):
Brewersalliance (0):
KevinH (0):
iSocialism (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting: Colonel Medved, Rafay, Canik


with 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch or 4 at deadline.

Deadline is on 30th August, at 11 pm CN time.

[Robert2424]

Not neccercarly, I could move my vote to Col Medved before deadline. 

[SeaBeeGipson]

Current post count:

brewersalliance 34

Robert2424 32

KevinH 19

Rafay 12

The Warrior 12

Jazzy95 11

Lord MK 11

Wolfpacks 10

iSocialism 10

Canik 9

SeaBeeGipson 9

Colonel Medved 8

MsShawdi 7

Lachiton 4

 

@SBG/Colonel MedVed/MsShawdi - Any other thoughts to share?

Not too much I'd like to share at the moment, waiting to see some final movements from people. We have a wagon NEAR a lynch, and 3 that are equally placed, all pretty close to lynch.
I think if I share anything, it's were in a pretty decent spot to get some information. How, depends on what moves certain people make. 

[Colonel Medved]

@SBG/Colonel MedVed/MsShawdi - Any other thoughts to share?

 

As I've said the other day, i have no information to share that will help sadly. As for my thoughts on recent actions, it doesn't seem anything has changed since i last posted. It seems we are still hoping we hit scum. I'm not saying its a bad thing, it is literally the only thing we can do until more information arises but as of right now there is a high chance of hitting town imo. I don't feel comfortable voting unless we know a shred of information pointing that someone is scum, because if i voted and it was town, then i would be accused of being scum and i rather not have to go through that. 

 

If we vote and hit town, then that gives scum the upper hand. 2 townies in one night possible (Then everyone on that wagon will be accused of being scum, when it is probably town just random voting which wastes time on finding scum)

 

If we vote and hit scum, then we got lucky and come out on top. 1 townie can still die during the night

 

Not neccercarly, I could move my vote to Col Medved before deadline. 

 

That would not be good for town, like i said before i rather not have to role claim this early. But if this does end up happening, give me enough time to rebuttal on it. I've been on a work/sleep schedule as of late, and if you put it in last minute i may not have a chance to say anything before deadline.

[brewersalliance]

@SBG/Colonel MedVed/MsShawdi - Any other thoughts to share?

 
As I've said the other day, i have no information to share that will help sadly. As for my thoughts on recent actions, it doesn't seem anything has changed since i last posted. It seems we are still hoping we hit scum. I'm not saying its a bad thing, it is literally the only thing we can do until more information arises but as of right now there is a high chance of hitting town imo. I don't feel comfortable voting unless we know a shred of information pointing that someone is scum, because if i voted and it was town, then i would be accused of being scum and i rather not have to go through that. 
 
If we vote and hit town, then that gives scum the upper hand. 2 townies in one night possible (Then everyone on that wagon will be accused of being scum, when it is probably town just random voting which wastes time on finding scum)
 
If we vote and hit scum, then we got lucky and come out on top. 1 townie can still die during the night
 

Not neccercarly, I could move my vote to Col Medved before deadline. 

 
That would not be good for town, like i said before i rather not have to role claim this early. But if this does end up happening, give me enough time to rebuttal on it. I've been on a work/sleep schedule as of late, and if you put it in last minute i may not have a chance to say anything before deadline.

Yes there is a high chance we might hit town but we cannot win the game if we don't Lynch.

And okay let's say we have a couple PRs. We already lost the cop, and more PR roles could die so if we just sit her and do nothing, the only side it helps is the scum
I'm considering to move my vote into Colonel MedVed

[Robert2424]

I understand where you are coming from col medved. I myself wouldn't want to rc so early as well.

[MsShawdi]

@SBG/Colonel MedVed/MsShawdi - Any other thoughts to share?

Not at this current moment. I'll need to go back and read thru and see if I spot anything that sticks out. Being that this is only my second game, I am kind of comparing the way people have acted in the other mafia threads. (By reading thru them, getting the person posts read, and checking to see what their role came out as). I also might have (maybe) stalked the Pokemon game, as a learning experience type thing.

[Wolfpacks]

At the moment I see no clues, no one's giving anything away

[The Warrior]

We are roughly 36 hours away from the deadline at this point. If you have not voted for anyone up to this point you should consider whether you're going to vote at all today. No we don't have any more information to go off of yet but we have to lynch at some point to win the game.

 

If you are one of the people who currently has 2 or 3 votes on them (MedVed, Jazzy, Wolfpacks, Robert) you might want to make sure that you're active before deadline in case you need to attempt to keep yourself from being lynched incorrectly.

[Jazzy95]

We are roughly 36 hours away from the deadline at this point. If you have not voted for anyone up to this point you should consider whether you're going to vote at all today. No we don't have any more information to go off of yet but we have to lynch at some point to win the game.

If you are one of the people who currently has 2 or 3 votes on them (MedVed, Jazzy, Wolfpacks, Robert) you might want to make sure that you're active before deadline in case you need to attempt to keep yourself from being lynched incorrectly.

I have nothing to say. I said we needed to no lynch a week ago to not waste our time. Now it looks like peer pressue will lynch medved. If by random chance he IS scum, town will act like it was a smart move and not a lucky one.

[Colonel Medved]

 

We are roughly 36 hours away from the deadline at this point. If you have not voted for anyone up to this point you should consider whether you're going to vote at all today. No we don't have any more information to go off of yet but we have to lynch at some point to win the game.

If you are one of the people who currently has 2 or 3 votes on them (MedVed, Jazzy, Wolfpacks, Robert) you might want to make sure that you're active before deadline in case you need to attempt to keep yourself from being lynched incorrectly.

I have nothing to say. I said we needed to no lynch a week ago to not waste our time. Now it looks like peer pressue will lynch medved. If by random chance he IS scum, town will act like it was a smart move and not a lucky one.

 

 

I can guarantee that i am town, and being this early in the game there is no one to confirm and i don't plan on role claiming unless its a for sure thing. Even then i will probably die anyway.

 

I think Jazzy is the only one who can understand what i was saying, since we both shared the same opinion on not wanting to random lynch. I would rather lose 1 town instead of 2 due to a random lynch. But i guess we will see what happens, i hope i'll be on again before deadline.

[KevinH]

We have to get lucky to win and it needs to start soon.