684 replies to this topic

[Colonel Medved]

 

 

 

Can't argue with that logic lol

[Wolfpacks]

Happy with that Lynch Robert because logic doesnt always work

[iSocialism]

I know KK isn't playing that's what my post is about. Also I haven't seen him for a few games too.

[KevinH]

More possibilities of how results could be wrong:

• Deflector
• Redirector

[Robert2424]

 

More possibilities of how results could be wrong:

• Deflector
• Redirector

 

if you want to be technical, Transporter as well. 

[Lachiton]

WP already confessed that he visited SBG last night, so where does deflector/redirector fit in? Only way WP is town is if a ninja performed the actual kill and Kverst of course couldn't see it.

Kverst is confirmed watcher now. He still can be mafia watcher but that would mean WP has to be SK. If WP turns out mafia, Kverst will be confirmed town.

[Kverst]

 

Brewersalliance, you are Hillary Clinton, a mafia email deleter. Once per day you may delete someone's post off your private email server

Throwing stones is dangerous. One might be tempted to chant lock her up at Ivanka. Just saying.

@Kverst, what made you decide to watch SBG?

 

I went through old game threads and looked at who was killed first and how active they were. I also took into account how players were acting and didn't watch those who I thought could be scum.

 

Also, I am indeed a watcher, as it seems some people didn't get my claim

[brewersalliance]

So its more likely than not that WP is indeed scum, as Lachtion said, WP admitted to visiting SBG, and the only way that WP isnt scum is if scum had a ninja preform the kill

 

Obviously, without a list of roles, we dont know if their is even a ninja in play, so we need to go with the hard evidence,which is SBG died, and SBG was visited by WP.  If WP flips town, the obviously the real killer is still out there, and is probably a ninja.  If WP flips scum, then hopefully we have a doc or BG that can protect our watcher and keep him alive.  So If WP is scum we will basically have two confirmed town-Isoc and Kvrest 

and yes the PM thing does not guarantee town, but im guessing that would be treated as a rules violation if he was scum and posted in the group PM chat to try to trick everyone about his role, as that would be doing something outside the game, while it was closed to influence the game, so I dont see it as a possibility that it was a gambit, and in my eyes that accidentally makes him confirmed town, since thats what it clearly was, an accident

[brewersalliance]

*If WP flips mafia scum*

 

the current votes stand as follows.  I am going to highlight and green our confirmed town

 

  Wolfpacks (5): Brewersalliance, Kverst, Lachiton, Colonel Medved, Rafay  

 

 Not Voting: iSocialism, Lord MK, Nadarr, Robert2424, Rhizoctonia, Sister Midnight, Wolfpacks

 

 

We currently do not know the total number of scum in this game.   So I am guessing we have either 3 or 4 scum.  Maybe a mafia team of 4 or a team of 3 plus a SK.  Either way, their are currently 5 people on the wagon and 7 off it.  I am guessing we have at least one scum on the wagon for sure.  I wouldnt be shocked if scum split there votes to make it harder to find them (instead of being lets say 2 or 3 out of 7 votes for a lynch, or two or 3 people not voting).   If there are 3 total scum my guess is 1 of them is on the wagon and one isnt on it.  We can take Kvrest out and isoc out cause they are basically confirmed town to me.  That means I think we will find at least one scum in each of these two groups

 

On Wagon: Brewersalliance,  Lachiton, Colonel Medved, Rafay  

 

Off Wagon:   Lord MK, Nadarr, Robert2424, Rhizoctonia, Sister Midnight

 

If their are four scum in this game, I would guess that means there would be 1 on his wagon and two off it.  With 14 players, 4 scum would be 28% so I think that is a very likely scenario.  While I did vote for medved on d1, after re reading his posts, I get a town feel from him, so I think he is most likely town.  I also get the same feeling from Robert, something he said earlier today gave me a really strong town feel for him as well,  so if we eliminate those two we are left with

 

On Wagon: Brewersalliance,  Lachiton, Rafay  

 

Off Wagon:   Lord MK, Nadarr, Rhizoctonia, Sister Midnight

 

Assuming their are 4 scum in this game, that gives us a 33% chance of getting scum if we go on the wagon and a 50% change if we go off the wagon.  If there are 3 scum in this game, its a 33% change on the wagon, and 25% chance off the wagon.

 

Obviously we will still have n2 actions that could potentially change the odds/give us more information as to whom our remaining scum are.  But if I am right about robert and medved, which I am fairly sure I am, we have pretty good odds of finding our next scum and winning this game

edit:  I just realized I left KevinH off that list.  He voted MK, so he isnt not voting, nor is he on the WP wagon.  I am not sure what to make of that.  That feels like it would draw a lot of attention to him and if he is scum that could be a huge risk, but at the same time, I nearly missed him with my post, so it could be a near successful attempt to hide.  I dont know how I feel about this at the moment. 

[Sister Midnight]

I would love to know who WP thinks is scum at this point.

[KevinH]

The simplest solution is the best solution.

 

I think Wolfpacks is a serial killer and was caught in the act.

[Wolfpacks]

Redirect by Kevin I think he is the SK, just wish I investigated him instead of SBG, would have save me loads of aggro, by lynching in me you lose your cop, kverst has got it wrong, if there is a ninja then I'm being framed

[Kverst]

No matter what you say, it doesn't change the fact that you were the only one to visit SBG last night and he died. 

[Robert2424]

Reguadless. I can hammer if need be.

[brewersalliance]

Redirect by Kevin I think he is the SK, just wish I investigated him instead of SBG, would have save me loads of aggro, by lynching in me you lose your cop, kverst has got it wrong, if there is a ninja then I'm being framed

 

 

if he is the SK then how did he redirect you?  

 

Also, here is what the re-director does:  A Redirector is a role that causes all actions taken on a particular Night by a specific player to target a specific second player instead of whatever their original target was.

 

This would mean if you targeted player A, your action would happen to player B instead.  You straight up said you targeted SBG, so a redirection would have switched you from SBG to someone else and then Kvrest never would have seen you.  You are just trying to throw misinformation at us.  I still am not sure what to make about Kevin's vote on MK, and then the fact that Kevin was actually the one to suggest the redirector in the first place is interesting.  Is this maybe WP trying to bus from one of his potential partners to make Kevin look like town?

[Lachiton]

WP is digging his grave more and more. His posts reeks of desperation. Not sure what to make of this Kevin thing, maybe WP is blaming him so that after the lynch Kevin looks town, or it's just scum trying to create confusion by turning town against another.

[Nadarr]

I would just like to say, the only reason I am not on the wagon is because we didn't want to hammer the lynch through. I am slightly confused by all the roles being thrown around, but would like to say it is possible we have a ninja. I still think WP is a good vote though because we don't know the roles and we have strong evidence against WP.

[Lord MK]

It's being some time since i saw a vote count. Can we get a vote count please?

[Colonel Medved]

It's being some time since i saw a vote count. Can we get a vote count please?

 

I don't think there has been any movement since the last update, we are 1 vote away from hammering WP.

[KevinH]

I still am not sure what to make about Kevin's vote on MK

 

Unvote.

Nothing to see here. My vote would be on Wolfpacks but I don't want to hammer him yet.