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Iran Situation


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#21
Lysistrata

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It looks like they intentionally missed their targets, or they're just really bad at this. Trump's talking in the morning.


"It's a good time to remind everybody...

that "dossier" is just a fancy French term for a load of crap"

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"To be honest... I would be more excited to see a Democratic debate if they were all on meth"  -Tyrus

 

"All of us get lost in the darkness... Dreamers learn to steer by the stars" -Neil Peart, RIP old friend


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#22
ccabal86

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Yes, that was a VERY restrained response, I dare say the bare minimum that they had to do without losing face. I hope cool heads will prevail.


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#23
DeathMerchant

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Trump should be addressing the nation very soon. So we will see how this all goes. Although it's plausible nothing about US action will even be mentioned on Live TV, so as not to tip off the Iranians.

Missle attacks, passenger plane crashes in Iran which they claim was a Mechanical Failure before the fire was even out and are refusing to release the Black Box, and a earthquake happens in Iran today.

Thank goodness I don't live in Iran :)

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#24
Lysistrata

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It looks like there will not be a response. No damage done. Economic sanctions are unchanged, but it's possible we will see more. The DOW is exploding. I don't trust them at all, but officially it seems to be over for now.


"It's a good time to remind everybody...

that "dossier" is just a fancy French term for a load of crap"

                                                                                                                                     -Kellyanne Conway

 

"To be honest... I would be more excited to see a Democratic debate if they were all on meth"  -Tyrus

 

"All of us get lost in the darkness... Dreamers learn to steer by the stars" -Neil Peart, RIP old friend


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#25
Rafay

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It was an elegant display of face saving tactics from both sides.

 

Iran silenced their masses yearning for US blood by claiming 80 killed, while USA prevented total war by safely removing all troops before the strike giving Iranians what they wanted. This was a deal struck b/w 2 belligerents to prevent escalation. Job well done I guess.

 

I've also heard that Trump wanted war but Pentagon opposed it and it was Pentagon that struck this deescalation deal w/ Iran govt.

 

I could see this war was never gonna happen. Too many cowards on both sides. All talk no show.


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#26
DeathMerchant

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It was an elegant display of face saving tactics from both sides.
 
Iran silenced their masses yearning for US blood by claiming 80 killed, while USA prevented total war by safely removing all troops before the strike giving Iranians what they wanted. This was a deal struck b/w 2 belligerents to prevent escalation. Job well done I guess.
 
I've also heard that Trump wanted war but Pentagon opposed it and it was Pentagon that struck this deescalation deal w/ Iran govt.
 


I don't think there was a secret backroom deal. How the timeline allegedly goes is Iran notified Iraq a missile strike was imminent, and the US was tipped off by Iraq. US Intelligence claims they acquired radio intercepts that something big was about to happen. US military evacuated their installations and fled to Bunkers as no Missle Defense were present (which explains why no Iranian missiles were shot down), and then the early warning missle launch system picked up the launches along with CIA Spy Satalites.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/01/08/us-officials-warned-missile-launch-iraq-bases-troops/2842200001/

https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-military-iran-iraq-missile-attack-warning-officials

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#27
ccabal86

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The reason why Iran tipped of the Iraqis, is because they didn't actually WANT anyone killed. In truth, they had much to lose on an escalation, and they really wanted to avoid it.


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#28
William Poole

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i really don't understand all this paranoia and fear over  assumed escalation with iran even going as far as war with iran.  i guess maybe it is fun to discuss what if's.  despite rand paul's rhetoric, Trump is not ever going to go to war with Iran, and iran does not want to go to war with the US.  there may be some tit for tat stuff that will go on but that has been happening for over 40 years now.  iran shot down a drone and trump didn't respond except to draw the line on killing Americans.  Iran killed an American and trump responded by killing an iranian; one iranian.  his response wasn't reckless he didn't bomb oil fields, he didn't send cruise missiles into tehran; he killed one iranian who was responsible for hundreds of  American deaths.  now we see Iran's response and it was simply a show to save face with their people.

 

i am curious to what others think especially those not from America, but which do you think would bring the US an Iran closer to war, Trumps attack on solemani, or if the iranian attack on our embassy had been successful and an ambassador was killed?  



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#29
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i wasn't even looking for this but found this posted on a comment board, but here is another opinion on the subject.  https://youtu.be/JVzIkREFmjg



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#30
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i wasn't even looking for this but found this posted on a comment board, but here is another opinion on the subject.  https://youtu.be/JVzIkREFmjg

Quoted because this is an excellent post. This woman needs to speak on the floor of Congress.


"It's a good time to remind everybody...

that "dossier" is just a fancy French term for a load of crap"

                                                                                                                                     -Kellyanne Conway

 

"To be honest... I would be more excited to see a Democratic debate if they were all on meth"  -Tyrus

 

"All of us get lost in the darkness... Dreamers learn to steer by the stars" -Neil Peart, RIP old friend


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#31
HackSlash

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Crap...

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219


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#32
Lysistrata

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Yes... not only do they launch a massive attack on Iraq and blow up some sand, they are so paranoid of retaliation, they flip on their nifty automated Russian made air defense system, probably paid for by Barack Obama, and blow a passenger airline from Ukraine out of the sky... killing 176 innocent people. No wonder they de-escalated so fast. These people are dumber than a coop of chickens.


"It's a good time to remind everybody...

that "dossier" is just a fancy French term for a load of crap"

                                                                                                                                     -Kellyanne Conway

 

"To be honest... I would be more excited to see a Democratic debate if they were all on meth"  -Tyrus

 

"All of us get lost in the darkness... Dreamers learn to steer by the stars" -Neil Peart, RIP old friend


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#33
HackSlash

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Here's the latests from CBC.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/champagne-iran-plane-crash-1.5420398

 

From the article:

 

"We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile," he (Trudeau), said during a news conference in Ottawa, adding that it might have been an unintentional act." (emphasis is mine).

 

There were 68 Canadians on board that flight.  As far as I'm concerned, whether it was intentional or not,  those f##ks just murdered 68 of our citizens.

Lets be honest, a passenger plane takes off from an international airport, on an approved and know flight plan, with its IFF turned on.  It's shot down minutes into its flight.


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#34
ccabal86

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It was obvious from the first minute that they shot down that plane after they tried to hide the black box - no question about it. I'm also pretty sure it was unintentional too, because most of the casualties were their own citizens.


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#35
DeathMerchant

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In a Facebook group deticated to Command Modern Operations (A PC military simulator), someone analyzed the Flight path in FlightRadar24 and modelled it in Google Earth . I can't share the pictures unfortunately but I will post the wall of text here. Their conclusion is that an Iranian missiles did shoot down the jet.

This is MY OWN analysis of the shootdown of flight PS752, which I've not yet compared to anyone else's detailed analyses out there just to avoid having my conclusions possibly influenced. A version to consider, if you will. My analysis is based on the following factual sources:

The aircraft's ADS-B flight track, via FlightRadar24:https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ps752
The video showing the moment of impact, from the New York times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

I used Google Earth for spatial analyisis, comparing various user-uploaded (Panoramio) photographs of buildings in the area and the aircraft's track to determine the location from where it was filmed. I believe my determined location is highly accurate. After determining this, I was able to locate the impact point, in what I think is also a very accurate location.

The point of impact with the aircraft is in fact about 860m further than the last ADS-B data point - but this is consistent with the flight tracker system, since data points are recorded at fairly sparse intervals, both previous points being about 1km apart from each other. So I have a very high degree of confidence that the aircraft was hit at an altitude of about 8200 ft above sea level (however, this is only about 4400 ft above ground in the area of the shootdown), going at a ground-relative speed of 275-276 knots, on a track of 312-313 degrees (northwest).

In the video, it is seen being hit by a missile that arrives from below the aircraft with a flight path in the video, originated somewhere behind and slightly left of the observer. It can be visually tracked for 38 frames in the video which, at 30 frames per second, translates into about 1.28 seconds, at which points it explodes. In this time, though the aircraft cannot be seen clearly in the video before the explosion, it is seen very clearly after being hit. We know it to be going 141.5 meters every second at this point and can get a good sense of scale and relative movement of the missile.

After reviewing a few possible scenarios that could account for this missile's flight path, I was able to rule out all known missile systems operated by Iran, except one: the Russian-built 9M331 Tor M1 (known in the West as the SA-15 "Gauntlet"). This is a short-to-medium range, mobile-deployable, highly-automated system intended for split-second defense against fast, low flying targets in high-intensity combat environments. It has a minimum effective range of 1.5 km, a maximum range of 12 km - but it is worth keeping in mind that for maximum effectiveness, they are usually fired at ranges less than that. The missile operates at a speed of between Mach 2 to 2.8, or around 660 to 920 meters per second.

With this in mind, I traced the path of the missile far behind the camera man, allowing for a margin of error, back about 10 km from the impact point. The area around the camera man is a busy residential high-rise development. Behind that is a stream bed - with unstable soil and, were the missile fired from here, it wold be flying at a much steeper angle upwards than seen in the video. Then up to about 7 km from the impact area, there is an area of major construction (likely more residential housing), then a rail road, what looks to be a recreational race track, and a highway leading south from Tehran. Almost 10km behind the impact point, there is a very large thermal powerplant - a strategic object. The kind of object that, had Iran's military been worried about an air attack, they would be looking to protect - especially since there are many military installations in the area.

Between the highway and the powerplant, there looks to be an interesting feature: a dugout or revetment in the sand, right off the highway, with easy access to the road. Looking through the historical imagery on Google Earth - this little site has been there for the past 20 years with little to no change. It may not necessarily be built for this missile - but it looks to provide a convenient and safe shelter about the right size for a group of vehicles... such as a mobile SA-15 battery.

Modeling out the possible scenarios, I've concluded that it is from this location (35.430496° N latutude, 50.913549° E longitude) that a 9M331 missile was most likely fired. Why I won't speculate, mentioning only that the Tor missile system is carried on vehicles and can go from driving on the road to being able to fire within about 3 minutes.

The missile was launched when the unfortunate airliner was at or just before the last data point registered on the ADS-B flight tracker data. From the launching battery's perspective, the aircraft would have been in view (or radar contact) 8 km away (just within the so-called "no-escape range" for this type of missile), at a slant angle of 10 degrees above the horizon. The missile flew for a total of about 8-10 seconds, only the last 1.27 of which can be seen in the video. The missile, possessing a 15 kg fragmentation warhead, exploded using a proximity fuse, showering the aircraft with shrapnel.

The damage was severe enough that the ADS-B flight tracker - a small and simple device pinging data about the aircraft's position to local receivers on the ground - was knocked out immediately. It appears to have mostly hit the aircraft's mid-section rather than nose (as in the MH17 case, for example), as the aircraft clearly suffered catastrophic damage to engines and fuel tanks, both of them on the wings near the aircraft's center. A large number of passengers were likely also instantly killed by the shrapnel, while the pilots apparently remained in control of the aircraft for some time (and were possibly trying to turn around and go back to the airport when it crashed, though I am not completely certain on that).

See images provided for the visual results of my analysis. At this point, barring further evidence, I am 99% confident that I've identified both the missile system and at least the area from which it was fired to within a high degree of accuracy. Again, I can more or less definitely rule out all other missile systems operated by Iran - except this one.

Thanks for reading, and my condolences to all those lost, or those who've lost someone, in this tragedy.


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#36
DeathMerchant

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Turns out the link is Public so here it is

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10102437409883755&id=90407564

The idea of war is not to die for your country, it's to make the enemy die for his.

 

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#37
ccabal86

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Plot twist: the downing of the plane (and many Iranian citizens) seems to have angered many people in Iran and may have balanced out the sympathy that the government may wanted to have gained from Soleimani's death.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51079965


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