866 replies to this topic

[Rafay]

Tony would be stupid to kill LWW. I think mafia are trying to frame him.

[KevinH]

Yes, we are officially open.

I opened the thread but didn't finish the post when I was called away.

All roles have been notified of results.

[brewersalliance]

What was LWWs role/alignment

[lilweirdward]

Dangit, I was excited to play this game

[brewersalliance]

It sucks to be killed night 1, doesn't it? Lol

[Finster Baby]

Yes, we are officially open.

I opened the thread but didn't finish the post when I was called away.

All roles have been notified of results.

OOC:  I saw the thread open with no update from you Kev, so I erred on the side of caution and closed it back, as there were posts starting and no real commentary.

 

IC:  Lets not try and end the day early this time, please?  We should be sure of what we're doing and use a little situational awareness when it comes to voting. 

[Tony Maurice]

Tony would be stupid to kill LWW. I think mafia are trying to frame him.

Of course lmao. Next they’ll kill finster and it’ll be obvious they are framing me.

[KevinH]

What was LWWs role/alignment

 

Man, I'm off my game ...

 

Lilweirdward, Vanilla Townie,  has been killed in the night.

edited into the Day 2 post. (I can edit because I'm the mod!)

[Tony Maurice]

Probably a silly question but will the first post be updated too? 
 

and i wonder, who is the one person that would want to frame ME.

[Lord MK]

So Lww is dead.

Your d2 post hasn't been edited, Kevin.
Your quote was the one edited.

[KevinH]

More edits made.  Hopefully correct this time.

[Lord MK]

Yeah, it's correct now.

We don't really need the alignment of the Nked player, they are going to be town.
The role is more important.

[Lyner]

What's the optimal strategy for JoAT if they tracked a scum? Reveal it straight away?

[Torres951]

We don't really have any other thing to go on, so I think it'd be most beneficial to share it with everyone. 

[Lord MK]

What's the optimal strategy for JoAT if they tracked a scum? Reveal it straight away?

In my opinion, yes. But there's a few caveats
waiting might be a good strategy too.
Like if you tracked say, me visiting lww.
That might mean 2 things,
1) I'm scum.
2) the other joat also tracking/ motion detection.

To the Joat who tracked me, there's a 50% chance that one of the 2 was the one which happened.

But if you rc and I'm in fact the joat, then we are both exposed.
On the other hand, you catch me as the scum and you might get protected tonight.

So anytime you RC, it's a game changing moment.

Now, something i have been thinking of.
If you don't RC immediately, and instead wait another night.
And stay on the same target, if you Tracked first night, then motion detection the next night and vice versa and you catch them visiting the night kill target again.
Then it's in all likelihood, scum.

If they visit anyone else, then they are joat.
If they don't visit anyone, then they are scum, this time they are not carrying out the kill.
In order to maximize their potential, Joats should be using actions every night.
So anyone who was seen visiting anyone on one night and not visiting anyone the next night, is pretty much guaranteed to be scum.

[Ferastical]

We don't really have any other thing to go on, so I think it'd be most beneficial to share it with everyone. 

 

We have 10 pages of D1 posts to go off of... and it would be longer, if someone here wouldn't have done what he did   

 

Also siding with MK here, it would take at least 2 nights to get some form of confirmation, unless a JOAT happened to track the person that killed LWW tonight, the odds for that being astronomical. The best we can hope for is that the JOATs got any result at all the previous night.

[Lyner]

That means we can't really rely on JoATs

 

I suggest we force everyone to just vote whoever they think is scum, and see what happens

[Ali bin Turban]

Like if you tracked say, me visiting lww. That might mean 2 things, 1) I'm scum. 2) the other joat also tracking/ motion detection. To the Joat who tracked me, there's a 50% chance that one of the 2 was the one which happened.

 

 

It's not 50%. Probability works other way: 

 

- Scum is making a kill. So if JOAT follows scum he'll always get to the crime scene. Therefore we have that 1/14 chance (roughly 7%) 

- For JOAT to follow other JOAT, that went to the crime scene we need an unlucky align: first 1/14 chance for JOAT to follow JOAT and then 1/14 chance for followed JOAT to stumble into crime scene. Therefore its' (1/14)*(1/14) = 0,5% chance

 

So if JOAT follows someone the the crime scene, there's 93% probability (assuming 15 players in game) that he followed scum. 

[Finster Baby]

More edits made.  Hopefully correct this time.

Rough night mate?

 

We don't really have any other thing to go on, so I think it'd be most beneficial to share it with everyone. 

 

We have 10 pages of D1 posts to go off of... and it would be longer, if someone here wouldn't have done what he did   

 

Also siding with MK here, it would take at least 2 nights to get some form of confirmation, unless a JOAT happened to track the person that killed LWW tonight, the odds for that being astronomical. The best we can hope for is that the JOATs got any result at all the previous night.

 

It's not impossible, though. 

[Lord MK]

Tony would be stupid to kill LWW. I think mafia are trying to frame him.

Tony ended d1 4 days early, so Tony isn't the best authority when it comes to smart decisions.

And so,
Vote: Tony.

This is not for lww, it's for yesterday's hammer.
Sure, i wanted no lynch, but i didn't want it to be 4 days early.