866 replies to this topic

[brewersalliance]

The best thing about this game is Torres can't kill anyone.
If he's mafia, then his other scum mates would statistically be much better than him at making decisions.

There's no redirector or associated roles.
Results and actions are guaranteed to be sane.

Thus any results the joats get are guaranteed to be Scum.

No one except the other Joats and scum can carry out any kind of night actions.

So as soon as any of the Joats get a hit, immediately RC.

There's a 66% chance that the other Joat didn't use their doctor role and can protect you from one more night.

Even if they couldn't protect you, there's just 3 mafia and taking out one scum would be worth it.
And also help us via associative tells to find the other 2.

thats not true.  the joat can hit another joat with the motion detector or tracker role. 

 

early FoS on MK for putting out disinformation.  If the Joat hits the other jote and RCs it right away, the entire scum team will then know who BOTH joats are

so going by MKs logic, we would lynch the player who the JOAT found that day, then the other joat would be 100% exposed to the mafia kill since there is ni more doctor or any role that could bust the scum and scum would cruise to an easy win

[Lord MK]

I told you the post before, 6.67% chance of that happening.
Read my damn posts.

The best thing about this game is Torres can't kill anyone.
If he's mafia, then his other scum mates would statistically be much better than him at making decisions.

There's no redirector or associated roles.
Results and actions are guaranteed to be sane.

Thus any results the joats get are guaranteed to be Scum.

No one except the other Joats and scum can carry out any kind of night actions.

So as soon as any of the Joats get a hit, immediately RC.

There's a 66% chance that the other Joat didn't use their doctor role and can protect you from one more night.

Even if they couldn't protect you, there's just 3 mafia and taking out one scum would be worth it.
And also help us via associative tells to find the other 2.

thats not true. the joat can hit another joat with the motion detector or tracker role.

early FoS on MK for putting out disinformation. If the Joat hits the other jote and RCs it right away, the entire scum team will then know who BOTH joats are

so going by MKs logic, we would lynch the player who the JOAT found that day, then the other joat would be 100% exposed to the mafia kill since there is ni more doctor or any role that could bust the scum and scum would cruise to an easy win

If the Joat found scum, the other joat would be safe.
I don't see how mafia can somehow find the other non RCed Joat.

The best thing about this game is Torres can't kill anyone.
If he's mafia, then his other scum mates would statistically be much better than him at making decisions.

There's no redirector or associated roles.
Results and actions are guaranteed to be sane.

Thus any results the joats get are guaranteed to be Scum.

No one except the other Joats and scum can carry out any kind of night actions.

So as soon as any of the Joats get a hit, immediately RC.

There's a 66% chance that the other Joat didn't use their doctor role and can protect you from one more night.

Even if they couldn't protect you, there's just 3 mafia and taking out one scum would be worth it.
And also help us via associative tells to find the other 2.

thats not true. the joat can hit another joat with the motion detector or tracker role.

early FoS on MK for putting out disinformation. If the Joat hits the other jote and RCs it right away, the entire scum team will then know who BOTH joats are

so going by MKs logic, we would lynch the player who the JOAT found that day, then the other joat would be 100% exposed to the mafia kill since there is ni more doctor or any role that could bust the scum and scum would cruise to an easy win

If the Joat found scum, the other joat would be safe.
I don't see how mafia can somehow find the other non RCed Joat.

[lilweirdward]

also

There have been 11 games played using this set up

All 11 games had a lynch D1

Mafia won EIGHT of those 11 games with a D1 lynch

Town won twice

and there was 1 draw

I hate to say this but going off the game history, a Day 1 lynch has lead to a mafia victory 73% of the time

with that being said... and I cannot believe I am doing this...

Vote No Lynch

Welp. A promise is a promise.

Vote: brewers

Honestly this is fair but my experience playing with the community here is that a day without a vote is effectively a day wasted. There's not enough meta and people don't talk enough to give good reads on their own, so we're a lot more reliant on voting patterns in these games, especially here where information is going to be much more scarce. We should only no lynch later in the game when it adds more value to drag out the game and prevent LYLO.

[Lord MK]

That's what the players in the 11 games also said.
They lynched d1 and they lost.

FoS Lilwad for wanting to cause town to fail.

Vote: No Lynch

I trust statistics more than i trust Lww.

[lilweirdward]

Lol the stats are from a community of really strong players posting dozens of times a day. No offense to anyone, there are definitely good players here, but there's a reason you keep trying to give hints to all the newer players on how to not completely throw this game.

I'm not saying voting no lynch is always bad in this game or even that brewers' logic is flawed, but I just think it's a waste of a day because we'll almost certainly end up a day and player down with no more info than we have today. Lynching is by far our best way in this community to get reads of people early in the game.

[Torres951]

 

• Mass role-claiming is allowed.

 

 

sweet.  let all 15 of us claim VT right off the bat

 

 

 

also vote LWW

 

he is the new SBG.  SBG was scum in like 6 straight games to start his mafia career.  LWW has been scum in at least two straight games.  So he is probably scum again

 

all jokes aside I really hope our two JOATs are experienced players.  otherwise we could be in for a rough game

 

I thought I was the new SBG??

[KevinH]

Vote Count:
brewersalliance (1): Lilweirdward, 
Lilweirdward (0): 
Ali bin Turban (0):
Ferastical (0):
Finster Baby (0):
ghaws (0):
Lord MK (0):
Lyner (0):
Rafay (0):
Robert2424 (0):
The Warrior (0):
Tony Maurice (0):
Torres951 (0):
Velocity (0):
Wolfpacks (0):

No Lynch (2): brewersalliance, Lord MK, 

Not Voting: Ali bin Turban, Ferastical, Finster Baby, ghaws, Lyner, Rafay, Robert2424, The Warrior, Tony Maurice, Torres951, Velocity, Wolfpacks

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch or 4 at deadline.
Deadline is Monday, August 24 at noon EDT.
 
I didn't bother to include the 150 post limit per day.  Feel free to exceed it.

[brewersalliance]

@mk  i was writing it while you must have posted so I missed it

 

so unFoS Mk   for now haha

I didn't bother to include the 150 post limit per day.  Feel free to exceed it.

 

 

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED 

[Tony Maurice]

Brewers voting no lynch? Wow.

 

vote lww.

 

hey!

[Velocity]

@mk i was writing it while you must have posted so I missed it

so unFoS Mk for now haha

I didn't bother to include the 150 post limit per day. Feel free to exceed it.

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED

1.50 posts a day

I have succeeded

[brewersalliance]

 

@mk i was writing it while you must have posted so I missed it

so unFoS Mk for now haha

I didn't bother to include the 150 post limit per day. Feel free to exceed it.

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED

1.50 posts a day

I have succeeded

 

I HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO

[Finster Baby]

I trust statistics more than i trust Lww.

You know there are 3 types of lies in this world:
1. Lies
2. Damned lies
3. Statistics.

Forewarned is forearmed. Tho I do tend to believe MK.

[Torres951]

Where'd all the numbers come from?

[lilweirdward]

Check the link in Kevin's OP. It's a community dedicated to Mafia that has a tournament going on where all games share this format. So far, out of the 11 games played in that tournament, scum won 8 of them.

[Lord MK]

Check the link in Kevin's OP. It's a community dedicated to Mafia that has a tournament going on where all games share this format. So far, out of the 11 games played in that tournament, scum won 8 of them.

All 11 of those games had a D1 lynch and they have all ended with scum 8 out of 11.

Let's try and see what happens when we don't lynch d1.

Lww, You said that we don't do the same stuff the mafiascum wiki.
You are right.
D2 in our community is almost exactly like d1.
And that's another reason why we need a NL.
Nl + 1 NK tonight leads us to 14 players alive tomorrow.
And since D2 for us is like D1.
It would be like starting out with 14.
And mafia games throughout history show that town win more when starting with even numbers.

[lilweirdward]

Did any of them try no-lynching on D1? No, because it's generally a poor strategy. You're just handing scum a free kill to start the game and wasting an entire day for no reason, and you don't really get anything out of it except playing around with the odds. Plus you're basically dooming one player to not even getting a chance to play, which isn't really fair. It's the same thing as allowing mafia to kill on N0, it's just generally bad form.

 

There's not much downside to lynching someone today. There's a 20% chance that we actually find a mafia, and even if we mislynch, we still get to start establishing voting patterns which is going to be crucial in this game. Obviously there's the risk of accidentally forcing a JOAT to RC, and of course there's an 80% chance that we'll mislynch generally, but the benefits outweigh those risks IMO.

[Velocity]

also

There have been 11 games played using this set up

All 11 games had a lynch D1

Mafia won EIGHT of those 11 games with a D1 lynch

Town won twice

and there was 1 draw

I hate to say this but going off the game history, a Day 1 lynch has lead to a mafia victory 73% of the time

with that being said... and I cannot believe I am doing this...

Vote No Lynch

I have to go with this, brewers logic is logical for once

Vote: No lynch

[Lyner]

town has won this game only 18% of the time.  so we have our work cut out for us.  Our JOATS better be solid players and if not, please be smart and research the roles before doing shit

wow difficult game

[Torres951]

I wanted to continue my streak of vig killing :[

[brewersalliance]

I wanted to continue my streak of vig killing :[

There is always night 4

also

There have been 11 games played using this set up

All 11 games had a lynch D1

Mafia won EIGHT of those 11 games with a D1 lynch

Town won twice

and there was 1 draw

I hate to say this but going off the game history, a Day 1 lynch has lead to a mafia victory 73% of the time

with that being said... and I cannot believe I am doing this...

Vote No Lynch

I have to go with this, brewers logic is logical for once

Vote: No lynch

Since when do I have bad logic

Did any of them try no-lynching on D1? No, because it's generally a poor strategy. You're just handing scum a free kill to start the game and wasting an entire day for no reason, and you don't really get anything out of it except playing around with the odds. Plus you're basically dooming one player to not even getting a chance to play, which isn't really fair. It's the same thing as allowing mafia to kill on N0, it's just generally bad form.

There's not much downside to lynching someone today. There's a 20% chance that we actually find a mafia, and even if we mislynch, we still get to start establishing voting patterns which is going to be crucial in this game. Obviously there's the risk of accidentally forcing a JOAT to RC, and of course there's an 80% chance that we'll mislynch generally, but the benefits outweigh those risks IMO.

I think no Lynch might be the best here

Clearly lynching isn't working for town in this set up.

Yes we have different abilities than championship mafia but that also means scum won't be as talented too

Check the link in Kevin's OP. It's a community dedicated to Mafia that has a tournament going on where all games share this format. So far, out of the 11 games played in that tournament, scum won 8 of them.

All 11 of those games had a D1 lynch and they have all ended with scum 8 out of 11.

Let's try and see what happens when we don't lynch d1.

Lww, You said that we don't do the same stuff the mafiascum wiki.
You are right.
D2 in our community is almost exactly like d1.
And that's another reason why we need a NL.
Nl + 1 NK tonight leads us to 14 players alive tomorrow.
And since D2 for us is like D1.
It would be like starting out with 14.
And mafia games throughout history show that town win more when starting with even numbers.

Stop stealing my stats I posted

town has won this game only 18% of the time. so we have our work cut out for us. Our JOATS better be solid players and if not, please be smart and research the roles before doing shit

wow difficult game

Yeah I do think it honestly comes down to who our JOATs are. Scum can easily play safe with only a couple ways to get caught so we need very strong joat play. And we need to be active. If we aren't active scum will 1000000% win

@mk i was writing it while you must have posted so I missed it

so unFoS Mk for now haha

I didn't bother to include the 150 post limit per day. Feel free to exceed it.

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED

1.50 posts a day

I have succeeded

I HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO

Damn it, it grouped them all into one post