866 replies to this topic

[Torres951]

Vote: Brewers

 

It is unlike him to suggest a no lynch! That's an obvious scum tell

[Lyner]

So what's the strategy?

 

From a glance it seems that VTs should draw attention from scums to buy time for JoAT

 

And JoATs should only RC if they caught all scums?

[Lord MK]

Did any of them try no-lynching on D1? No, because it's generally a poor strategy. You're just handing scum a free kill to start the game and wasting an entire day for no reason, and you don't really get anything out of it except playing around with the odds. Plus you're basically dooming one player to not even getting a chance to play, which isn't really fair. It's the same thing as allowing mafia to kill on N0, it's just generally bad form.

There's not much downside to lynching someone today. There's a 20% chance that we actually find a mafia, and even if we mislynch, we still get to start establishing voting patterns which is going to be crucial in this game. Obviously there's the risk of accidentally forcing a JOAT to RC, and of course there's an 80% chance that we'll mislynch generally, but the benefits outweigh those risks IMO.

1) it's not a bad strategy.
Kevin always tried no lynching d1.
And guess who has the most wins in our mafia forums, Kevin, not you.
So i would take advice from Kevin and do a no lynch in his game.
In fact, i bet he choose this game so that we would think of no Lynching naturally this time.

2) the NK would happen regardless of whether or not we lynch someone. Making grand expressions to get town to follow your lead. (Scum Tell #1)

3) that player who's going to get offed tonight, would be offed regardless of what happens with our lynch. (Misdirection - Tell #2)

4) And all that talk about not giving the Nked player a chance, but no talk about the player we are going to be lynching today?
(Hiding hidden motive to kill off town - Tell #3)

5) we can't risk losing the Joat on n1, although you think otherwise(Hail Mary attempt to get the joat exposed early - Tell #4)

So after all evidence gathered.
If we are going to be lynching anyone, it's got to be you.
Pushing aggressively for killing off townies with no information whatsoever, is scummy.

But as i said, Town wins more games with even starting number.
And we will only get that with NLing and starting the game anew tomorrow.

[The Warrior]

@lww - I get the argument to want to lynch but we are going to have very limited ability in this game to actually scum hunt with only having two JOATs. Vote analyzing will become more helpful as the game goes on but I’d rather not take the chance of lynching one of our only power roles or forcing them to claim on day 1.

But for the sake of argument, let’s say we opted to lynch today and hit a VT (as the odds tell us we likely would). That leaves 14 players alive going into the night. 3 scum, 11 townies. Of those 11 townies 2 of them are JOATs. That gives the scum ~18.2% chance of killing one of our only power roles.

Alternatively, if we choose not to lynch today, there will still be 15 players going into the night. 3 scum, 12 townies. Of those 12 townies 2 of them are still JOATs. That gives scum a slightly smaller ~16.7% chance of hitting one of our JOATs.

The difference may only seem like ~1.5% but in a game with only two town power roles it benefits us if they stayed hidden as long as possible.

[brewersalliance]

Damn..everyone is a mathematician at this point

FoS anyone advocating for a day 1 lynch.

Scum wins at a 4 to 1 clip when lynching with this set up on day 1.

Sure we have no evidence to what the win rate is with a no Lynch, but with the track record of a Lynch on day 1 being with it is, it's worth the risk.

[Robert2424]

Oh cool. I'm alive.

VOTE FINSTER

Haven't seen you in forever playing mafia. I feel I should give the IRON Mafia welcome.

[lilweirdward]

I mean, if you think about it the other way around, the numbers are only going to get worse until we start killing scum. Tomorrow there will either be 14 or 13 players, and then our odds of doing town harm by mislynching go up. Same for the next day, and the day after - every day we don't kill scum, the more likely we either mislynch our only PRs or they get killed at night by mafia. Waiting puts a lot of pressure on the JOATs to get it right, and they each have a 1/20 chance to actually watch or motion detect the right person, not counting the days they'll be limited by having to use their doctor shot, and not including the chance that they accidentally catch each other, so it's not a guarantee that this strategy will even work on its own.

I'm not even remotely the best player here, and if you guys are dead set on no lynching then I wish you the best. I just know this is gonna be a hard game to win regardless, and based on the few games I've played here so far, town gets the most help by having information to speculate on. There are too many inactive and inexperienced players - myself included - to start the game by completely entrusting it to the JOATs.

FoS anyone advocating for a day 1 lynch.

Oh the sweet sweet irony of you being the person to post this lol.

[Robert2424]

I mean. I'm for no lynches. But someone with a good argument might be able to persuade me to lynch brewers or Rafay.

[Ferastical]

I mean, if you think about it the other way around, the numbers are only going to get worse until we start killing scum.

 

The strategy is not about not hunting scum, it's about waiting for anything, literally anything that could positively confirm who scum is. There is definitely not a 20% chance that we will lynch scum, it's rather much lower. You are forgetting the human aspect of this, scum will talk their way out and we will most definitely end up lynching a townie. Add a NK to that, and we've already lost 2 influential people.

 

 

No Lynch is a no-brainer.

 

Vote: No Lynch

[Tony Maurice]

Please provide links to all examples that back up the stats.

[Finster Baby]

Oh cool. I'm alive.

VOTE FINSTER

Haven't seen you in forever playing mafia. I feel I should give the IRON Mafia welcome.

OMGUS!!

VOTE: Robert2424

OMGUS!!

[Lord MK]

Oh cool. I'm alive.

VOTE FINSTER

Haven't seen you in forever playing mafia. I feel I should give the IRON Mafia welcome.

The guy has been playing in a lot of recent games.
You are the one who vanished, lol

[Velocity]

Please provide links to all examples that back up the stats.

I dunno where everyone else got them, but if you scroll through the JOAT^2 tournaments on the actual mafiascum forums you probably could find their numbers

[Tony Maurice]

 

Please provide links to all examples that back up the stats.

I dunno where everyone else got them, but if you scroll through the JOAT^2 tournaments on the actual mafiascum forums you probably could find their numbers

 

To be honest I wasn’t even gonna read, just seeing if all the statisticians would back them up with links lol.

[ghaws]

i guess i have to take the word and their numbers seem to be about right so i would continue with the no lynch movement which is going in here

 

I am sure i will not be able to speak with experience in these mafia games as i am new in here but what i can say for a certainty is how much i like to read into people and seeing brewers take a no lynch shows to me that it is in fact important and i do not see any advantage to the scum with a no lynch it seems logical to go for a no lynch 

 

Vote : No lynch               

                

[Ali bin Turban]

So 11 times out of 11 experienced players choose to lynch, but we're smarter than those noobs and well go no lynch route, is that right?

What do we expect to do tomorrow after todays no lynch? Our joats are no cops. To the contrary, they are very likely to find nothing at all.

Secondly no lynch saves us a guy but does not give us additional day ( wed need two no lynch days for that), so it acctualy give us one less wagon to analyze and robs us of opportunity to eliminate notorious lurkers that will be a pain during upcoming days.

Vote Rafay

[brewersalliance]

So 11 times out of 11 experienced players choose to lynch, but we're smarter than those noobs and well go no lynch route, is that right?

What do we expect to do tomorrow after todays no lynch? Our joats are no cops. To the contrary, they are very likely to find nothing at all.

Secondly no lynch saves us a guy but does not give us additional day ( wed need two no lynch days for that), so it acctualy give us one less wagon to analyze and robs us of opportunity to eliminate notorious lurkers that will be a pain during upcoming days.

Vote Rafay

And 8 of those 11 times scum won. And town only won two times. So we can try exactly what they did 11 times that lead to overwhelming scum victories or we can try to change the strategy.

I think 11 games is enough evidence to suggest it is a failed strategy.
Unless you think our town players are talented enough to overcome scum even tho they couldn't do it in the ship

[Lyner]

Damn..everyone is a mathematician at this point

 

Sir 11 data points are not stastistically significant

 

Also we are not that expert

 

But I also advocate for no lynch

[Tony Maurice]

Vote brewers

 

we have different minds here and we need to use different strategies. You need to stop bamboozling us with statistics. You are scum and lying. You are evil. You should be lynched.

[Ali bin Turban]

And 8 of those 11 times scum won. And town only won two times. So we can try exactly what they did 11 times that lead to overwhelming scum victories or we can try to change the strategy.

I think 11 games is enough evidence to suggest it is a failed strategy. Unless you think our town players are talented enough to overcome scum even tho they couldn't do it in the ship

But does it mean that lynch strategy is bad, or maybe that the setup is hard for town?
Did you consider, that possibly in all of those plays they didnt switch from lynch, not because they were bad players, but because they knew no lynch would lead to even worse outcome?

Tell me what should we do tomorrow and how todays no lynch will help us with that?