612 replies to this topic

[Tony Maurice]

Not made up at all. I do know you are some sort of evil, to say it was mafia was a mistake. 

 

I am cop, you are not. I am town, you are not. 

[lilweirdward]

I was really busy at work today and have just been half-keeping up with my thread subscription. I'm gonna spend some time going back and analyzing the game to see if I can get a more educated idea of whose story is more believable, but a few quick thoughts:

• It's low of brewers to bring play from currently-ongoing games into play, especially when he's the mod of said game and has specific information that the rest of us except Tony don't have. Cornering Tony with information only the two of them can know is really dirty IMHO and it really shouldn't be a talking point anymore.
• The whole "Tony confused Dontavian with Velocity" seems like a really unimportant discrepancy. I honestly forgot while reading it that Velocity was the one who replaced Robert in this game when I was first reading his post, and I feel like the core action he was trying to describe is that he investigated Robert before Robert was replaced. Not saying whether the claim is true or not, just that I don't think this is a big gotcha in my view.
• The recent confusion about whether Tony knows that brewers is mafia or just scum generally is EXTREMELY important. My reading of the initial claim is that he was told specifically that brewers was mafia, which is not impossible - I'm sure I recall MK clarifying that the cop would get specific results if applicable, although I need to go back and quote it and such. If Tony is now backtracking and saying that he only knows brewers is "Guilty" then that changes his claim a lot in my mind. Tony, if you're reading this: please clarify exactly the result you got on brewers as it will just about make or break whether or not I believe your claim.

I'll post more about which way I'm actually leaning later tonight hopefully when I get a better sense of what's led up to this. 

 

Oh also, @Finster your vote on Velocity (really anyone except brewers or Tony) is absolute insanity. If you're town then there's simply no excuse for doing that - there's effectively a 100% chance that either Tony or brewers is scum since they can't both be the cop and wouldn't lie about it if they weren't scum (if they are lying townies then we deserve to lose lol), and while there are other people making themselves more or less suspicious by how they respond, there's zero way to be as confident about anyone else being scum as you should be that either brewers or Tony are.

[Finster Baby]

Oh also, @Finster your vote on Velocity (really anyone except brewers or Tony) is absolute insanity. If you're town then there's simply no excuse for doing that - there's effectively a 100% chance that either Tony or brewers is scum since they can't both be the cop and wouldn't lie about it if they weren't scum (if they are lying townies then we deserve to lose lol), and while there are other people making themselves more or less suspicious by how they respond, there's zero way to be as confident about anyone else being scum s you should be that either brewers or Tony are.

Look at it like this: If Velocity is the SK, lynching him helps the town immensely. Lynching the liar out of the RCs still leaves the town in a perilous situation of facing 2 night kills, one by scum, one by the SK.

That said, Brewer's pointing out of TM's results about brewers does give me pause and gives credence, at least in my eyes, that TM may be the one lying here. Results matter, and reporting those results accurately matters just as much.

I'm not ready to change my vote yet. But I am watching this play out.

[Lyner]

This game blew up

 

Yeah I did recall MK saying that at certain point in time the result would be distinct (scum/cop)

[lilweirdward]

 

Oh also, @Finster your vote on Velocity (really anyone except brewers or Tony) is absolute insanity. If you're town then there's simply no excuse for doing that - there's effectively a 100% chance that either Tony or brewers is scum since they can't both be the cop and wouldn't lie about it if they weren't scum (if they are lying townies then we deserve to lose lol), and while there are other people making themselves more or less suspicious by how they respond, there's zero way to be as confident about anyone else being scum s you should be that either brewers or Tony are.

Look at it like this: If Velocity is the SK, lynching him helps the town immensely. Lynching the liar out of the RCs still leaves the town in a perilous situation of facing 2 night kills, one by scum, one by the SK.

That said, Brewer's pointing out of TM's results about brewers does give me pause and gives credence, at least in my eyes, that TM may be the one lying here. Results matter, and reporting those results accurately matters just as much.

I'm not ready to change my vote yet. But I am watching this play out.

 

 

So, if we're only thinking about it in terms of what we gain by lynching correctly, here are the possible outcomes:

 

1. Vote brewers/Tony, and get mafia
   1. 1 mafia lynched, (likely) 2 town night-killed
   2. Remaining 3 town, 1 mafia, 1 SK
   3. Town in LYLO, control their own destiny
2. Vote Velocity, and get SK
   1. 1 SK lynched. Doc cannot be switched off anymore
   2. If doc does not stop NK, then 1 town night-killed
      1. Remaining 4 town, 2 mafia
      2. Town in LYLO, control their own destiny
   3. If doc stops NK, then 0 town die
      1. Remaining 5 town, 2 mafia
      2. No longer LYLO

 

So yes, if we're just thinking about what possible outcome is the most beneficial, I definitely agree that getting rid of the SK is better for town than getting rid of one of the mafia, or at worst just as good.

 

The catch is that mislynching anyone (brewers, Tony, or Velocity) essentially ends the game as far as Town is concerned, outside of one of the scum factions getting greedy and going for the solo win (which is super unlikely since they gain nothing by doing that). So while successfully lynching the SK is the best possible outcome, we have nothing except play styles to go off of to know who that SK is. Velocity could just as easily be mafia or a VT or maybe even the doctor - he hasn't RCed and neither of the potential cop RCs included any sort of confirmation about Velocity, so despite all the clues people are picking up on, we don't know anything outside of our reads. In contrast, with both brewers and Tony claiming cop (especially with Tony claiming to be able to confirm that brewers is scum), it's essentially a 100% certainty that one of them is scum. Obviously we don't know which one it is, but if we're basically treating this like a LYLO situation, then we should 100% pick between the two known quantities rather than ignoring them completely and shooting in the dark.

[Lyner]

What LWW said

 

Picking between Tony/Brewers is our best bet here

[Tony Maurice]

LWW, I just want to confirm that I just got a result saying he was not town. 

 

I got a little over-excited and instantly reported it as mafia. 

[lilweirdward]

Also, slight rule edit

The Cop will return a result clearly indicating the alignment of their target, if they are successful.

(Town, Mafia, Sk)

 

For future reference while I'm going through posts.

This was in D2

LWW, I just want to confirm that I just got a result saying he was not town. 

 

I got a little over-excited and instantly reported it as mafia. 

 

Still going through posts but you sure this is your final answer? Lol I literally just quoted the mod confirming that the cop would get a clear alignment on successful (not switched off) investigation, and this directly contradicts that.

[Ferastical]

Well, this is certainly interesting.

 

To me so far Tony seems quite genuine with his posts, meanwhile Brewers comes off as desperate to save his skin. Either that claim is fake or not, kudos to Tony, it looks very real in either case.

 

FB trying to redirect our attention from the fight going on was confusing, to say the least. i don't know what he was doing, possibly like a last minute attempt at defending or just a wild accusation for Velocity... in any case, I think FB will have to start talking soon, as it's not looking good for him.

 

Yeah I did recall MK saying that at certain point in time the result would be distinct (scum/cop)

 

 

This I remember as well.

 

Vote -> Brewersalliance 

 

If I remember correct, this totals for Brewers at 4 votes... leaving us at L-1. I hope. So we could possibly chat a bit more.   

[Tony Maurice]

@LWW if through error or not, I am not sure but the MKs post to me does not indicate a faction. I’ll ask in my PM if I can get one

[brewersalliance]

@lww interesting I guess I missed that.

So mk would give a result of mafia or sk or town.

If tony was actually the cop he obviously wouldn't have back tracked on the result of mafia which he has now done completely. So he Is clearly lying
And @ferastical/Don you should probably take your vote off me even if it's just for a little bit.

The game is lylo for us. Putting me at L-1 means Tony's partner can just hammer me and town is done.

If u still think I'm scum later then be my guest and revote me, but early voting like this almost always ends in a scum win/mislynch.

Not gonna ask velocity to unvote because I'm completely convinced he's the sk

[lilweirdward]

Spent a ton of time documenting pretty much everything that's happened so far (got an 11-page google doc if anyone is masochistic enough to want to read it lol), and here's some of the interesting bits that I've got so far.

 

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Rafay (8): Baby, Abt, Limey, Wp, Tw, Dontavian, Lilywad, Brewers

Tony Maurice (2): Rafay, Robert (Velocity)

Torres (CoD) (1): Tony

Wolfpacks (1): Kevin

Not voting: Torres (CoD), Ferastical

 

Rafay is lynched

Note: No interesting events, just a bunch of votes as you'd expect

 

Day 2 Interesting Events

 

TW is killed by Mafia

WP is shot by SK

Tony points out that brewers makes a post assuming that Torres (CoD) is town

Tony just obliterates Robert (Velocity) for posting fluff and being worse than he is (this was an amazing post btw)

brewers posts a lot of fluff that sounds smart but doesn't lead anywhere

Right after AbT leaves, Tony votes him "for some confirmation"

Tony says LWW is suspicious (#379)

• Editors Note: This is after Tony has had me confirmed as town N0, according to his RC

 

Day 2 Final Vote Count

Ali Bin Turban (4): Kevin, Ferastical, Tony, baby

KevinH (2): brewers, limey

Ferastical (1): CoD

No Lynch (1): Lilywad

Not voting: Velocity, Abt, Dontavian ❤️

 

AbT is lynched

 

 

 

This brings us to Day 3 where we are now. As a reminder about the two RCs:

 

Tony Role Claim

• Cop
• N0 investigated LWW, received Town
• N1 investigated Robert (Velocity), does not receive result
• N2 investigated brewers, received mafia

Brewers Role Claim

• Cop
• N0 investigated TW, does not receive result
• N1 investigated Ferastical, does not receive result
• N2 investigated CoD, received “no result”

A few things stand out here, mainly that Tony's RC includes all active players and 2 results, whereas brewers' RC includes two dead (confirmed town) players and no results among all 3 attempts. From a purely objective standpoint, brewers' RC is much easier to fake - having 2 of 3 investigations be of dead players, and none of them returning results, is more or less impossible for anyone to verify or disprove. Tony's is more difficult to fake and easier to disprove, although less so on both accounts since the setup is open.

 

That being said, two of Tony's claims are in some way faulty/disprovable. First, he claims that he knew N0 that I was town and that it helped "see LWW's actions as trying to help town" or something like that, but then in D2 says that my actions are "highly suspicious." It's possible that he just forgot in the moment about what he knew about me, and he did seem to take his suspicion away just a few posts later, but this action directly contradicts his RC and is a big consideration IMO. Second, as I pointed out a few posts ago, MK has confirmed that the rules were changed during D2 to make it so the Cop would get exact alignments in their results, should they ever get them. This contradicts both Tony's claim that he was told I am "town" instead of "not guilty" since it would have happened prior to the rule change, and more importantly Tony actually contradicts MK in his later posts when he changes his story to say that he never received exact alignments, just an indication of "not town" for brewers. I see the post he made about how maybe it's a mixup on MK's part, and if it is then he's pretty much ruined the game, but I don't think MK would make a mistake like that. The obviously more likely scenario is that Tony's RC is made up, and he tried to walk back what he thought was a faulty RC without remembering that he was instead changing his story to be impossible given the mod-confirmed rules.

 

 

 

Wrapping it all up, I've never done town/scum points before but it's helpful here:

1. +1 town point to Tony for lots of real effort (not just "trying" but actual town-helpful posts)
2. +1 scum point to brewers for not contributing anything meaningful D2
3. +1 scum point to Tony for inconsistent actions (RCing to know I'm town N0, but being suspicious of me D2)
4. +1 scum point to Tony for inconsistent story (changing story about results received, and contradicting mod's confirmed rules)

Legitimately torn here, but there are too many serious holes in Tony's RC for me. I don't know why he'd roll the dice on faking an RC just to get to the 2-2-1 setup, but right now I can't in good conscience just let them all slide.

 

Vote: Tony

[Tony Maurice]

Understandable on all of it. I can't defend what looks suspicious, it is there for your interpretation. 

 

Just remember:

 

I am town, brewers is not. I am cop, brewers is not. 

 

And thanks for the obliteration comment lmao

[Lord MK]

Vote Count

Brewersalliance (4): Dontavian, Tony, Velocity, Ferastical
Tony Maurice (2): Brewers, lww
Velocity (1): Baby
Ferastical (0):
Lyner (0):
lilweirdward (0):
Dontavian (0):
Finster Baby (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not voting: limey

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline is Wednesday, November 25 at 0000 UTC.

[Lord MK]

I already told everyone what results a successful cop investigation would get.

So no, i didn't make any mistakes.

[Lyner]

(got an 11-page google doc if anyone is masochistic enough to want to read it lol)

lol at least now I'm pretty sure you're not part of mafia

 

 

Wrapping it all up, I've never done town/scum points before but it's helpful here: +1 town point to Tony for lots of real effort (not just "trying" but actual town-helpful posts) +1 scum point to brewers for not contributing anything meaningful D2 +1 scum point to Tony for inconsistent actions (RCing to know I'm town N0, but being suspicious of me D2) +1 scum point to Tony for inconsistent story (changing story about results received, and contradicting mod's confirmed rules) Legitimately torn here, but there are too many serious holes in Tony's RC for me. I don't know why he'd roll the dice on faking an RC just to get to the 2-2-1 setup, but right now I can't in good conscience just let them all slide.

Point 4 seems to be the most suspicious to me, if I read the whole back and forth correctly:

- Tony claimed that Brewers is "mafia"

- Brewers claimed that cop should get "guilty/not town" result.

- Tony said he misinterpreted the result and actually got "not town" result.

All this while, MK already clarified on Day 2 that cop would get specific result, so Tony is actually right before Brewers corrected him.

 

 

I want to hear others' opinion on this

[Lord MK]

Post Count

brewersalliance 53 (17)
lilweirdward 44 (11)
Tony Maurice 42 (14)
Finster Baby 35 (4) -red
Dontavian 34 (7)
Ferastical 24 (2) - red
Lyner 23 (5) -red
Velocity 15 (6) - orange

[Velocity]

(got an 11-page google doc if anyone is masochistic enough to want to read it lol)

lol at least now I'm pretty sure you're not part of mafia

Wrapping it all up, I've never done town/scum points before but it's helpful here: +1 town point to Tony for lots of real effort (not just "trying" but actual town-helpful posts) +1 scum point to brewers for not contributing anything meaningful D2 +1 scum point to Tony for inconsistent actions (RCing to know I'm town N0, but being suspicious of me D2) +1 scum point to Tony for inconsistent story (changing story about results received, and contradicting mod's confirmed rules) Legitimately torn here, but there are too many serious holes in Tony's RC for me. I don't know why he'd roll the dice on faking an RC just to get to the 2-2-1 setup, but right now I can't in good conscience just let them all slide.

Point 4 seems to be the most suspicious to me, if I read the whole back and forth correctly:
- Tony claimed that Brewers is "mafia"
- Brewers claimed that cop should get "guilty/not town" result.
- Tony said he misinterpreted the result and actually got "not town" result.
All this while, MK already clarified on Day 2 that cop would get specific result, so Tony is actually right before Brewers corrected him.


I want to hear others' opinion on this

I see that in one of three ways.


• One of them lied it was mistaken about what result they were supposed to get.
• They both messed up their own ability results.
• Neither of them actually know for sure.


I find it hard to believe that even brewers would play something like the first scenario, and I think one of them is indeed the cop, so it could be that one of them got messed up.
By being badgered about his results, especially being a newer player (Tony) he could have tried to do what he felt needed to correct brewers, even though he reported correctly before. Brewers, however, wasn’t given any results on his actions (even though he should have known the cop would get those results).

[Ferastical]

brewersalliance 53 (17) lilweirdward 44 (11) Tony Maurice 42 (14) Finster Baby 35 (4) -red Dontavian 34 (7) Ferastical 24 (2) - red Lyner 23 (5) -red Velocity 15 (6) - orange

 

 

Dang, that ain't good. Some people, including me, still need to make posts, so I'm going to remove my vote in case anyone wishes to hammer and get me mod killed in the process, nearly dodged that.

 

Unvote

I'm still convinced it's Brewers, though.

[Lord MK]

If a full majority vote happens, no mod kill will occur.
Only in the absence of a full lynch, will there be a mod kill.
A full lynch refers to a lynch happening ahead of deadline, basically a majority vote to lynch.