894 replies to this topic

[Chaplain of death]

 

If we're gonna vote him out it should be because he'll be inactive until the very end when he can just demolish us, although voting out the best players because they're good is generally not a fair strategy.

Demolish us?
Aka the scum team


Now if you recall call brewer's game
Lww had a similar slip of tongue, when he said he will help rafay kill Finster again.

That's happening here again.

Vote: Lww
.

I'm here and I will start the HP game at some point. So screw you guys.

"Some point"
Aka not happening.

Vote out the facist! You know, like the U.S. just did.

If you think trump is a fascist, then i recommend you get a thesaurus.

 

 

Do you prefer Autocrat? or the classic, Tyrant? You did ask for a thesaurus.

[Velocity]

If we're gonna vote him out it should be because he'll be inactive until the very end when he can just demolish us, although voting out the best players because they're good is generally not a fair strategy.

Demolish us?
Aka the scum team


Now if you recall call brewer's game
Lww had a similar slip of tongue, when he said he will help rafay kill Finster again.

That's happening here again.

Vote: Lww
.

I'm here and I will start the HP game at some point. So screw you guys.

"Some point"
Aka not happening.

Vote out the facist! You know, like the U.S. just did.

If you think trump is a fascist, then i recommend you get a thesaurus.

Do you prefer Autocrat? or the classic, Tyrant? You did ask for a thesaurus.

I prefer small words I can understand

[Dontavian]

So I've been thinking, and maybe we should No Lynch for a few days in this game. Literally everyone is some sort of PR, and not a single role will have abilities after N4. This will make D5 onward a huge advantage for scum, and the less information that town can have going into that day, the better for them. Mislynching townies will 100% rob us of some sort of information that we could use in the end game, so I would think that the goal is to have as many players alive in D5 as possible so we can lay our cards on the table and try to nail down scum with the information we have.

As a reminder, these are the roles:
 

Watcher n1 Only Macho
Watcher n2 Only
Alignment Cop n2 Only 1x Ninja
Alignment Cop n3 Only 1x Ninja
Vigilante n2 Only
Vigilante n3 Only
Doctor n1, n3
Doctor n2, n4
Tracker n1, n3 1x Strongman
Tracker n2, n4 1x Strongman
Jailkeeper n1, n3
Jailkeeper n2, n4
Roleblocker n1, n3
Roleblocker n2, n4
Role Cop n1, n2, n3 1x Strongman
Jack of All Trades (Role Cop, Tracker, Roleblocker) n1, n2, n3
Jack of All Trades (Doctor, Jailkeeper, Voyeur) n1, n2, n3
Voyeur n1, n2, n3, n4 1x Strongman

Which means the pattern of information gathering will look like below. By D3 we'll still have up to 13 players that have actions left to take, with 9 of them taking their final action the next night.

N1: 9 actions, D2: 16/17 players with actions left
N2: 11 actions, D3: 13/17 players with actions left
N3: 10 actions, D4: 4/17 players with actions left
N4: 5 actions, D5: 0/17 players with actions left

If we No Lynch through the first three days, at max we should only lose 3 players (potentially fewer if any of the several protective roles stop a NK), and still have 10 town alive to play against 4 mafia with nearly all of its available information collected. If we mislynch every day (which would be unlucky but is obviously possible), we could get to D4 with only 7 town alive to 4 mafia and almost no information left to gather, plus everything lost from the townies that were dead.

So, for the time being:

Vote: No Lynch

If someone has a counter argument I'm all ears, but I think this might give town the best shot to win the game.

 

Haven’t QCd the math but this makes sense... also seems like a very Town-centered suggestion on LWWs part
 

 

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.
There is not a deadline half-majority lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 is Wednesday, December 30 at 17:00 EST

And we have almost 2 weeks before deadline, so no hurry to lynch
 

[Lord MK]

If we're gonna vote him out it should be because he'll be inactive until the very end when he can just demolish us, although voting out the best players because they're good is generally not a fair strategy.

Demolish us?
Aka the scum team


Now if you recall call brewer's game
Lww had a similar slip of tongue, when he said he will help rafay kill Finster again.

That's happening here again.

Vote: Lww
.

I'm here and I will start the HP game at some point. So screw you guys.

"Some point"
Aka not happening.

Vote out the facist! You know, like the U.S. just did.

If you think trump is a fascist, then i recommend you get a thesaurus.

Do you prefer Autocrat? or the classic, Tyrant? You did ask for a thesaurus.

Now you are just pulling random words out of the bag.

Trump is like the opposite of tyranny, he's the popular candidate.
Sleepy Joe is the true Autocract.
Just like Obama was.
They are also pussies, having the most drone strikes in American history.
If you are going to attack a country, attack them face to face, not from the safe places of liberal California.

Cause no matter the flaws of Bush, he atleast sent actual troops, unlike the democrat snowflakes.

[Rafay]

In the last 7 games I was scum twice. Granted, I also won as scum twice (1 mafia, 1 SK). However, I also won as town twice. And the last two games I was active for the entirety of the games.

 

Agreed. No matter what part he plays TheWarrior plays it with heart. He tries to be as active as possible. 

[Lyner]

Since this is another championship setup, is there any stat & optimal strat?

[brewersalliance]

 

So I've been thinking, and maybe we should No Lynch for a few days in this game. Literally everyone is some sort of PR, and not a single role will have abilities after N4. This will make D5 onward a huge advantage for scum, and the less information that town can have going into that day, the better for them. Mislynching townies will 100% rob us of some sort of information that we could use in the end game, so I would think that the goal is to have as many players alive in D5 as possible so we can lay our cards on the table and try to nail down scum with the information we have.

As a reminder, these are the roles:
 

Watcher n1 Only Macho
Watcher n2 Only
Alignment Cop n2 Only 1x Ninja
Alignment Cop n3 Only 1x Ninja
Vigilante n2 Only
Vigilante n3 Only
Doctor n1, n3
Doctor n2, n4
Tracker n1, n3 1x Strongman
Tracker n2, n4 1x Strongman
Jailkeeper n1, n3
Jailkeeper n2, n4
Roleblocker n1, n3
Roleblocker n2, n4
Role Cop n1, n2, n3 1x Strongman
Jack of All Trades (Role Cop, Tracker, Roleblocker) n1, n2, n3
Jack of All Trades (Doctor, Jailkeeper, Voyeur) n1, n2, n3
Voyeur n1, n2, n3, n4 1x Strongman

Which means the pattern of information gathering will look like below. By D3 we'll still have up to 13 players that have actions left to take, with 9 of them taking their final action the next night.

N1: 9 actions, D2: 16/17 players with actions left
N2: 11 actions, D3: 13/17 players with actions left
N3: 10 actions, D4: 4/17 players with actions left
N4: 5 actions, D5: 0/17 players with actions left

If we No Lynch through the first three days, at max we should only lose 3 players (potentially fewer if any of the several protective roles stop a NK), and still have 10 town alive to play against 4 mafia with nearly all of its available information collected. If we mislynch every day (which would be unlucky but is obviously possible), we could get to D4 with only 7 town alive to 4 mafia and almost no information left to gather, plus everything lost from the townies that were dead.

So, for the time being:

Vote: No Lynch

If someone has a counter argument I'm all ears, but I think this might give town the best shot to win the game.

 

Haven’t QCd the math but this makes sense... also seems like a very Town-centered suggestion on LWWs part
 

 

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.
There is not a deadline half-majority lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 is Wednesday, December 30 at 17:00 EST

And we have almost 2 weeks before deadline, so no hurry to lynch
 

 

town wins by lynching scum.  no lynching through three days?  that will give town absolutely nothing to go off and we will be relying solely on luck, and scum not killing the PRs that can assist us.  I think this is a terrible idea.  no lynch is almost always stupid.  no lynch for three straight days?

 

can i vote twice for LWW?  lol

[lilweirdward]

Did you even read my post or did you just stop at me suggesting a No Lynch? I said it gives us 1) the most people alive by the time most of everyone's actions are spent, and 2) the most information that we can just lay on the table since we'll all basically turn into VTs and have nothing to lose by just dropping everything we know to catch the scum.

Seriously, tell me why it's actually a bad idea (and not just "no lynch bad" since you did it twice in Kevin's last championship game). Unless you're mafia and would love to see us mislynch our way to a quick win.

[Lord MK]

Did you even read my post or did you just stop at me suggesting a No Lynch? I said it gives us 1) the most people alive by the time most of everyone's actions are spent, and 2) the most information that we can just lay on the table since we'll all basically turn into VTs and have nothing to lose by just dropping everything we know to catch the scum.

Seriously, tell me why it's actually a bad idea (and not just "no lynch bad" since you did it twice in Kevin's last championship game). Unless you're mafia and would love to see us mislynch our way to a quick win.

Or you are scum and don't want us to lynch your teammates, like we did in brewer's game

[Robert2424]

Normally I'd go no lynch first day but not sure if he still wants to play

VOTE ROBERT

 

 

Vote robert

 

Apathy.

Way to help increases my interest in mafia in general. Plus blitz voting me worked so well for you guys in the other game. 

[brewersalliance]

Did you even read my post or did you just stop at me suggesting a No Lynch? I said it gives us 1) the most people alive by the time most of everyone's actions are spent, and 2) the most information that we can just lay on the table since we'll all basically turn into VTs and have nothing to lose by just dropping everything we know to catch the scum.

Seriously, tell me why it's actually a bad idea (and not just "no lynch bad" since you did it twice in Kevin's last championship game). Unless you're mafia and would love to see us mislynch our way to a quick win.

 

there are 18 total roles.  one of them was randomly discarded.  and four of those remaining 17 roles are scum roles.  we have no idea what four the scum got.  so there will actually be 5 less total town actions than you posted.  and again we dont know which powers the town or scum got.  your post makes it seem like town got access to all of those powers.  which they did not. town only has access to 13 of them.  so the numbers you posted are way off and misconstrued.  you are clearly attempting to make it look like town has more actions than they really do.  this to me, along with your previous comments with your exchange with MK feels like an intentional misdirection from you.  Does this mean you are scum?  No, it doesnt confirm you are scum.  But to me, its a very bad look.  Either you somehow forgot scum get 4 of the roles, or you intentionally tried to make it look like town will get a lot more actions than they really do

[brewersalliance]

and even if you say oops, you forgot the scum get four of those roles, you still have no idea what those roles are.  

 

you are therefor relying on a couple things:  the RNG workts out in the towns favor

 

and the town players will randomly guess the scum players with their actions

 

if we just vote no lynvh every day, no one will have a single reason for who they pick for their actions other than guessing.  so the game will come down to pure dumb luck

 

if town manages to miss scum with their actions and we no lynch every single day scum will have a HUGE edge.  we will have nothing to go off for future days, and we will have three dead townies and no idea who might or might not be scum, and then we will also have no more actions that can be done.  this is a terrible strategy IMO and as to me, it relies solely on pure luck.  And when you factor in how poor the strategy is with you competently leaving out the fact that scum get 4 of the roles and 1 is discarded while making it look like town has more abilities than they really do, i think there is a chance you are scum and were trying to come up with a strategy that appears pro town when in reality it is not pro town.  

 

and it seemed to have worked at first, as we did get someone to post saying they think you are town because of this.  but when you actually dig into the strategy, it is not pro town, and it is filled with inaccuracies/misinformation about the distribution of roles

[brewersalliance]

Do you prefer Autocrat? or the classic, Tyrant? You did ask for a thesaurus.

 

 

trump is none of the above.  god i hate how liberals always just claim Republicans are dictators or fascists or nazis.  You guys clearly have no idea what any of those words mean or what its like to actually live under a regime by someone who is one of those things.  its pathetic, sad and just down right ignorant.  OMG trump says things in his tweets that hurt my feelings... yeah that does not equal any of that stuff.  

[lilweirdward]

and even if you say oops, you forgot the scum get four of those roles, you still have no idea what those roles are.

you are therefor relying on a couple things: the RNG workts out in the towns favor

and the town players will randomly guess the scum players with their actions

if we just vote no lynvh every day, no one will have a single reason for who they pick for their actions other than guessing. so the game will come down to pure dumb luck

if town manages to miss scum with their actions and we no lynch every single day scum will have a HUGE edge. we will have nothing to go off for future days, and we will have three dead townies and no idea who might or might not be scum, and then we will also have no more actions that can be done. this is a terrible strategy IMO and as to me, it relies solely on pure luck.

I'm slammed at work and will respond more to this later tonight, but this is almost totally not true.

First of all you're suggesting that 13 townies with nearly 30 actions (minus the scum ones) will all miss catching any scum at all, which would be the worst luck in mafia history and is essentially not possible. By D4 we'll almost surely have at least some real info to go off of, if not multiple solid hits. Even if town did magically only hit other townies with all of their actions, a ton of those actions are some sort of investigative action, which helps us rule out potential candidates for scum. So the idea that we'll start D4 with zero information is just complete nonsense.

Secondly, we have a huge numbers advantage as town right now, and getting to D4 with no lost townies other than NK will still leave us with 10 to 4, which is 3.5 mislynches still available to put all the pieces together with the information collected (the 0.5 is because we can't mislynch a 4th time, but we can no-lynch to drag the game out an extra night/day if necessary). If we can't win with 25-30 data points plus 3.5 days of lynching, then we are truly doomed. The alternative is to basically risk killing off useful town roles just to get to D4 with a few trains to analyze and only 2 mislynches left, assuming we don't catch scum by that point. I don't see how it's not way riskier to do it that way.

Also it's stupid that I'm even responding to this, but I never said that town got all 17 roles' worth of actions, it's just that almost none of those actions are useful to scum except to make the game more confusing if they're good enough. Like, what is a mafia going to do knowing what my role is or who I visit? The only roles that are useful to them at all are the role blocking ones, but that doesn't help them after N4.

[Lord MK]

Yes, but the 4 roles being with the scum keeps them from being used by town
Which basically eliminate their advantage to town.
Since we are no lynching 3 days in a row, the PRs have to random guess.
But that doesn't happen.
They will all pick a few players.
Like most likely brewers n1 and then TW and then use every single killing action on me.

So a lot of actions will just cancel each other out


Whereas with vote analysis, PRs can make more informed choices.

[brewersalliance]

There are lots of roles that are useful to the scum. Role cop is a very useful scum role. There are ninja roles, vigilante roles that can let the scum has multiple kills in one night, strongman roles, roleblocker roles.

Now you're trying to make it seem like scum do not have any useful roles lol

And I'm driving right now but when I get back to work I'll break down why the math is also not the best math per your strategy

[brewersalliance]

First of all you're suggesting that 13 townies with nearly 30 actions (minus the scum ones) will all miss catching any scum at all, which would be the worst luck in mafia history and is essentially not possible. By D4 we'll almost surely have at least some real info to go off of, if not multiple solid hits. Even if town did magically only hit other townies with all of their actions, a ton of those actions are some sort of investigative action, which helps us rule out potential candidates for scum. So the idea that we'll start D4 with zero information is just complete nonsense.

 

 

aprox 1/4 of the players in this game are scum.  therefore, statistically, scum will have 1/4 of those 30 actions. or around 6-7.  so town will only have 23 of those actions

 

N1, with 9 total actions, means 2 of them will statistically be scum actions, giving town a total of 7 actions.  16 total targets for each action, 4 scum and 12 town, giving each action a 75% chance of hitting town and only a 25% chance of hitting scum.  the cops will only have reputation to go off, thus greatly increasing the chance they both pick the same person.  so saying

 

n2, we dont know how many players will still be alive so we dont know how many total actions will actually be available.  but lets just say somehow all 10 of the night actions for night 2 are still around, statically, rounding up, 3 of them will be scum.  so again only 7 actions for the town and about a 3/4 chance the actions hit town.  remember, each action will be independent of the other actions, so the odds dont go up when one action hits town, its the same 3/4 odds per action.  

 

night 3 same thing, dont know how many will be alive, and at this point it is even less likely all actions will still be in play, but if they are, the odds are again the same for the hitting of the players.

 

now we have to look at a few more factors that are in play.  MK is right, actions are usually done on specific players when nothing is known.  no one will also know who is being targeted so actions could double up on players.  and actions can also fail and be blocked.  and as players die, with this format, unless a vig gets lucky and randomly guesses a scum to shoot, the only roles that we lose will be town roles.  so the towns chances of actually finding a scum while we no lynch go down. we then will have nothing to go off for the choices.  so people will just pick the players that are always picked.  protection will be given to those worthy of it, ie) torres would most likely not draw a doctor.  soi= saying it would be the worst luck in mafia history to not hit mafia is just plain wrong.  when you really look into it, there are far less chances of success than you think.  

Secondly, we have a huge numbers advantage as town right now, and getting to D4 with no lost townies other than NK will still leave us with 10 to 4, which is 3.5 mislynches still available to put all the pieces together with the information collected (the 0.5 is because we can't mislynch a 4th time, but we can no-lynch to drag the game out an extra night/day if necessary). If we can't win with 25-30 data points plus 3.5 days of lynching, then we are truly doomed. The alternative is to basically risk killing off useful town roles just to get to D4 with a few trains to analyze and only 2 mislynches left, assuming we don't catch scum by that point. I don't see how it's not way riskier to do it that way.

 

 

you also dont know that.  if scum drew any of the vig roles, there could be less info to go off.  and all these data points you are mentioning wont be public unless every person role claims today and then posts exactly what they did every single day and what the results are.  

Also it's stupid that I'm even responding to this, but I never said that town got all 17 roles' worth of actions, it's just that almost none of those actions are useful to scum except to make the game more confusing if they're good enough. Like, what is a mafia going to do knowing what my role is or who I visit? The only roles that are useful to them at all are the role blocking ones, but that doesn't help them after N4.

 

 

i think i broke this down before but there are a lot of useful roles for the mafia, AND they can also keep useful roles away from the town. mafia knowing your role is HUGE.  it helps them determine who to kill and how to play the game.  you are vastly dismissing the power of the roles mafia could end up with and completely discounting the fact that town losing a lot of these roles when the scum get them as well.

 

voting for people gives us something to go off.  plus the only thing in the game town can actually control is the lynch.  no lynching for three straight days takes that power away from us and gives all the power to the scum.  we will have no ability to analyze wagons, or know how people flip.  everything will be just random.  

 

i really hope you are just a misguided townie.  this would be awful if you are scum.  you would have singled yourself out in a huge way, and you have provided a lot of misinformation and ignored a lot of relevant stuff with this.  if its a scum move, its awful and just asking you to be lynched lol.  and i dont like to think u would screw up this bad d1 as a scum player.  however, unless we are presented with a viable alternative, i will be keeping my vote on you

[Wolfpacks]

Normally I'd go no lynch first day but not sure if he still wants to play

VOTE ROBERT

Vote robert

Apathy.

Way to help increases my interest in mafia in general. Plus blitz voting me worked so well for you guys in the other game.

Try and help a friend out and they jump down your throat, ok get bored in your own time

UNVOTE

VOTE NO LYNCH

[Chaplain of death]

 

Now you are just pulling random words out of the bag.

Trump is like the opposite of tyranny, he's the popular candidate.
Sleepy Joe is the true Autocract.
Just like Obama was.
They are also pussies, having the most drone strikes in American history.
If you are going to attack a country, attack them face to face, not from the safe places of liberal California.

Cause no matter the flaws of Bush, he atleast sent actual troops, unlike the democrat snowflakes.

 

 

 

 

Do you prefer Autocrat? or the classic, Tyrant? You did ask for a thesaurus.

 

 

trump is none of the above.  god i hate how liberals always just claim Republicans are dictators or fascists or nazis.  You guys clearly have no idea what any of those words mean or what its like to actually live under a regime by someone who is one of those things.  its pathetic, sad and just down right ignorant.  OMG trump says things in his tweets that hurt my feelings... yeah that does not equal any of that stuff.  

 

 

 

Calm it down kiddo's this is the mafia thread not  the politics sub. I threw it out for lolz when brewers made the liberal comment. MK accidently said thesaurus so was essentially obligated to troll just a little further      . Not going to go further into it here despite my our disagreements because this isn't the place for that discussion. Don't muddy the waters to boost your activity level with things that aren't related to the game. I threw out a lolz vote in response to brewers lolz vote, that was all it was meant to be.

 

 

 

 

Normally I'd go no lynch first day but not sure if he still wants to play

VOTE ROBERT

 

 

Vote robert

 

Apathy.

Way to help increases my interest in mafia in general. Plus blitz voting me worked so well for you guys in the other game. 

 

 

 

Voting is a way to prod activity as long as it isn't a full wagon, you should be well aware of that considering how much you've played mafia Robert. If you don't like it be active  .

[brewersalliance]

Now you are just pulling random words out of the bag.

Trump is like the opposite of tyranny, he's the popular candidate.
Sleepy Joe is the true Autocract.
Just like Obama was.
They are also pussies, having the most drone strikes in American history.
If you are going to attack a country, attack them face to face, not from the safe places of liberal California.

Cause no matter the flaws of Bush, he atleast sent actual troops, unlike the democrat snowflakes.

Do you prefer Autocrat? or the classic, Tyrant? You did ask for a thesaurus.

trump is none of the above. god i hate how liberals always just claim Republicans are dictators or fascists or nazis. You guys clearly have no idea what any of those words mean or what its like to actually live under a regime by someone who is one of those things. its pathetic, sad and just down right ignorant. OMG trump says things in his tweets that hurt my feelings... yeah that does not equal any of that stuff.

Calm it down kiddo's this is the mafia thread not the politics sub. I threw it out for lolz when brewers made the liberal comment. MK accidently said thesaurus so was essentially obligated to troll just a little further . Not going to go further into it here despite my our disagreements because this isn't the place for that discussion. Don't muddy the waters to boost your activity level with things that aren't related to the game. I threw out a lolz vote in response to brewers lolz vote, that was all it was meant to be.

Normally I'd go no lynch first day but not sure if he still wants to play

VOTE ROBERT

Vote robert

Apathy.

Way to help increases my interest in mafia in general. Plus blitz voting me worked so well for you guys in the other game.

Voting is a way to prod activity as long as it isn't a full wagon, you should be well aware of that considering how much you've played mafia Robert. If you don't like it be active .

Says the guy posting and calling trump a tyrant to boost his post count