Everyone please refrain from personal attacks. The next one will result in an instant mod-kill. Thank you.

 

 

Darkfox - tracker, can you like name claim? Cause we really need to avoid the lily situation repeating

 

 

At this time I am not going to name claim. It would be better if we hold onto them as long as possible in hopes that Scum mess up. 

 

The names are the best way to hopefully catch a scum

TW what is current vote count?

Happy Friday all! Not a lot of posts, so thankfully this will also get to be a shorter post tonight.

 

First I went back and read Imran's two posts I couldn't parse this morning. The first is rebuffing Brewers, and the second lays out a theory for why Brewers would sit still on N1 and why it would not be prohibitively risky for Brewers-as-scum to leave a known tracker alive. He also points out a townie would not otherwise keep harping on about DF being proven. 

 

What Imran describes is certainly /possible/ and fits the known facts, but is unproven. It's worth keeping in mind as a scenario for what could be going on with Brewers, but it is far from a smoking gun deduction.

 

During the day Brewers snapped back HARD at Imran, to the point that TW had to throw a warning flag in thread. But after that he responded to my morning post and dropped a claim that is VERY interesting indeed!  

 

 

That actually makes sense per the thanos thing- maybe a scum joat that gains abilities as he gets the stones.

As far as me and no action on n1… it wasn’t that I chose not to do an action, I didn’t have any action available for me night one.

I’m not going to be around this weekend so I might as well just claim now to be safe since I’m not sure when I’ll be able to respond to anything

I’m Wanda, an avenger universal backup.

I gain the ability of the first avenger power role to die.

So obviously no one was lynched D1 so I had no ability n1. When strange died and we lost our doctor N1 I gained his ability.

N1 no action
N2 dark fox
N3 velocity

I kept saying the dark fox thing to try to bait scum into attacking dark fox and protect him and prevent a scum kill.

I had a convo with TW about it, I wanted to make sure I didn’t cross any lines since the post was in the PM thread for his action, and I felt like if I shared Dark fox was the tracker that would be using ooc shit to gain an advantage, but also since everyone could have seen the dark fox post I was curious what TWs thoughts were on it- ie if he agreed with me that saying dark fox was the tracker would be using ooc stuff to bait scum. I felt it was but I also just wanted his opinion and he agreed that it was so instead of bringing up with DF did I tried to make it seem like I had some reason to know he was town and draw the scum kill to him that way so I could block it.

In addition I also protected DF cause he was the only known power role to me at the time and if scum saw his DM like I did they might try to kill him

On N3 I picked velocity mainly cause of the stone. I also thought zacch would protect LWW since Zach was a newer players and might not think about the stone collection and just go for the doctor. And part of me is worried velo and I are secret lovers and what would happen if one of us died. I was hoping I would get us coverage over both. I tried writing up a post telling Zach to protect the cop to make scum try to role block lww, and kill velocity so I could protect velo and stop the kill with scum thinking velo is u guarded so they can kill the watcher And Get a stone, but instead he’d be protected by me and he would see who the role blocker was on lww and we would prevent the scum kill at the same time. Unfortunately I clicked post like three min after deadline and the ten min I spent working on the post was for nothing since TW locked the thread exactly at deadline and the post failed.

 

Okay, First Pass is to take this at face value:

• Brewers claims Wanda (not Wanda Maximoff?), Avenger Universal Backup
• Brewers gained iSoc1's Doctor role after N1, which explains why he did nothing on N1
• Brewers claims he used his doctor on N2 and N3 to protect DF and Velocity, respectively
• Brewers explains the D2+ harping on about DF's towniness was to try and bait a scum kill that he would block on N2
• Brewers explains his N3 choice of Velocity was for the stone, expecting Zacch would protect LWW
• Also a less solid theory about "secret lovers", i.e. he dies if Vision dies due to Wanda-Vision lore connection?

If this all true is as presented, then we have another doctor to boost our chances of blocking scum on any given night. The combination of Doctor and Bodyguard opens up a LOT of interesting potential combinations; Mafiascum even notes how broken it can be for a Doctor and a bodyguard to protect each other! 

 

Okay - now time to look at this more critically:

• There is no objective verification of Brewers' claim, as he is not able to point to a night of 0 kills
  • In this same vein I must note it is POSSIBLE he blocked a kill on N2 or N3, and the kill we saw came from another source - SK, vigilante, etc.
  • This opens up all SORTS of possibilities!! If Brewers is town then Tony's death on N2 could actually not have been the scum's target at all but instead someone else's while scum tried to kill DF after Brewers baited them. Same on N3, though that looks to be far more likely scum action.
• Unverifiable "backup" roles with no proven results are scum fakeclaim fodder
  • Claiming here on D4, you can list past night survivors and say that they just weren't targeted
  • With the voyeur dead N1, Role Cop lynched D3, Cop dead N3, and watcher and tracker having claimed their full actions, this claim can be made without fear of anyone else contradicting it based on information gathered thus far.
  • DF could track Brewers again to see what/where he goes, but that wouldnt help us TODAY
• Given the Role Madness of this game, Universal Backup strikes me as odd
  • We have seen no duplication so far by design, keeping all of our roles varied, but Universal Backup is geared to producing exactly that - feels like it doesnt QUITE fit?
  • It feels odd that TW would give someone a role that /by design/ could do nothing on N1 unless a D1 lynch happened. It's basically robbing someone of their N1 action instead of just GIVING them a different role they can use from the start
• Name claiming "Wanda" (Not Wanda Maximoff, just Wanda - maybe a nitpick?) avoids the main 6 Avengers and suspected stone holders
  • See the entire earlier discussion about Scum having safe claims, the theory that stone holders seem to be consistently town at least so far, etc. 
  • I'm not 100% sure that 'universal backup' fits Wanda by theme? Maybe you can handwave and say "magic can be anything", and TW could have had to stretch to make SOME things fit, but I don't know
• Perhaps most importantly: The sequence of this claim *exactly* matches my second Thanos scenario from this morning's post! i.e. Thanos gaining the Time Stone doctor's power after N1. This is both REALLY interesting/exciting and really frustrating for me, because of the position this puts us in.
  • After this morning's brainstorm I was going to be on guard against any duplicate/backup roleclaims, but was NOT expecting it to happen from Brewers or this fast.
  • If this follows the rest of my theory, that would mean Brewers-as-Thanos is either a SK/solo victor or unattached scum who needs a cop to find and rule out their own partners while hunting stones. He would only JUST have gotten LWW's cop power though, and make first use of it on N4.
  • This would also mean that Brewers-as-Thanos is 2 stones away from either flat-out winning or whatever condition is triggered by getting all the stones. Velocity we know (except for MK) has the Mind stone, the other Stone is elsewhere. If two stones fall in a single night or Lynch+Night, this could be an IMMEDIATE Game Over.

Obviously none of this is proven, but there is enough here that I am now a bit concerned about Brewers and it is leaving me a bit conflicted.

 

SO! Options:

1. Brewers is town, claim is legit, and his Doctor is a VERY useful role to try and keep us/stones alive and buy more time to scumhunt
2. Brewers is scum (but not Thanos), fakeclaiming as Universal Backup with unverifiable actions and knowing there's nothing currently known/claimed to counter it
3. Brewers is Thanos (!!), as an unaligned SK/solo victor. He has the Doctor and now Cop, but we don't know what else he has just from being Thanos - bulletproof, etc?. Literally everything else Brewers has claimed about trying to protect DF, trying to hunt scum to prove himself, etc, would all still be true. He would also be 2 stones or one bad night away from victory.
4. Brewers is Thanos (!!), as a detached scum traitor who would need the Cop/etc roles to find other scum

Scenario 2 where Brewers is just scum and scrambling for a claim that matches the now-public facts is least interesting, but would mean he could/should be tested. 

 

Scenario 3 where Brewers is Thanos but NOT scum is a pickle. We couldn't count on him to keep Velocity alive for real because he'd want the stone, but he'd otherwise want to work with us to find a scum to try and "prove" himself. He could also be trying to push for non-scum lynches to get himself more stones, though at this point he wouldn't have had a Cop yet to have tested anyone.

 

Scenario 4 where Brewers is Thanos AND scum, means that he is isolated away from the rest of the scum and wins with them. He might throw a scum under the bus to prove himself, but at this stage in the game with no scum deaths yet I'd be more inclined to look at whoever he ISNT attacking - he might be trying to secure a group win.

 

All of the above scream that Brewers should actually be a lynch candidate for today - but it is counterbalanced by Scenario 1, wherein he could ACTUALLY be a claimed doctor. This is why him matching my Thanos theory so well is frustrating - I can see VERY REAL reasons to want to vote him now, possibly a bigger win than iSoc2 being scum if Thanos can only be killed by lynch or something, but it's unproven and we risk losing a second chance Doctor if he really IS legit. 

 

Ok, boo.
That's something.
Wow, ok.
Cool.

I mean that fits in with the story so far.
So a lot of people have RCed at this point.

[...]

Yeah, i think thanos gains joat like status with each stone.
And also yeah, he could be the sk.
Cause when you think about it, thanos was perfectly willing to bomb his army to get to avengers in endgame.
So he could be a traitor as well.
But I'm thinking he's a sk who got super powers at this point.
Remembered the zacch rc,

 

I am leaning toward Thanos being the SK/solo option as well.

However to both you and DF I'll caution that at THIS point with a potential Thanos candidate on the field, keeping that last stone hidden/unclaimed is probably our best defense. Something something keep Gamora hidden, keep her safe, etc. Protecting that last stone outweighs the value of trying to trip someone up with name claims, especially per prior discussion where we think safe claims are provided anyway. 

 

So where does this leave me?

 

The coincidence is too much for me to NOT suspect Brewers more now, but I am for the moment going to tie him to iSoc2 per scenarios 2 & 4 above - if he is trying to ignore iSoc2, then that may mean he is scum trying to preserve scum, possibly for the win. If iSoc2 is today's lynch and he flips scum, then I will probably push for Brewers and Lyner as two key remaining scum.

 

Perhaps we will gain more information overnight as well - a night of no deaths might help prove him, as could whatever investigation/tracking abilities remain alive. But if another stone dies and Brewers remains unproven, we may have to make a very hard choice between him-as-doctor or him-as-Thanos. Or we could just lose tonight under scenario 3 where both Scum and Thanos make a kill on the same night and both stones die at once. No pressure, right? I'll really be curious to hear from TW about the game's setup when this is all over. 

Interesting claim by brewers. Wanda as Universal Backup. It neatly ties in the night actions. N1 no action. N2 he protected DF. N3 he protected Velocity. 

 

He has claimed all these after he knew exactly who the Watcher and Tracker targetted on N2 and N3. If he claimed backup-doc before DF revealed who he had tracked on N2 and N3, I would immediately remove my vote from him. He has now claimed only after DF has revealed his actions, making it extremely safe for him to do so. He protected Velocity over lww on N3? This is completely unbeleivable from an experienced player. Zacch protecting Velocity makes sense because he is new to the game. But a veteran player leaving the cop open to a kill on the basis that he "thought" Zacch will protect lww? He talks about how he missed making a post telling Zacch to protect lww. So? You miss telling Zacch and do not adjust your target?? You leave the cop open to be killed (which is exactly what happened) instead of using your power for basically what it was meant for - to save the confirmed town cop? (jazz role claim confirmed lww is the actual cop). I call BS.

 

Preston has bought up some really good points - including one where he pointed out Wanda as universal backup doesnt fit. Let us look at this: Vision -> Watcher, Captain America -> Bodyguard, Black Widow -> Voyeur, JOAT - Iron Man. They all fit thematically, i.e. power roles close to marvel universe powers. Then we have Thor -> Role Cop and Star-Lord -> Cop. Not directly matches but Thor and Star-Lord may be OK with investigative roles.

 

Now we look at what else matches thematically. What does a Universal Backup do? He basically gets the powers of the first power role townie that gets killed. We can say he absorbs the power. We go to the movies, which is one character in the Infinity War movie who gets powers from others? Thanos. He kills the avengers with stones, takes their stones and gets the stone abilities -> match that will the game and it means he gets their power roles. TW has been specifically been stating that Thanos is getting stones. So Thanos is a central player in this game, he is getting stones and probably getting powers. This exactly matches with what brewers' is claiming. Does Wada as someone who acts as a backup make sense thematically or Thanos absorbing powers make sense thematically? It is obvious to me.

 

I will now amend my theory. Thanos is not a godfather type of role. Thanos probably has a modified Absorber role. Stone-holders get killed and he gets their powers. He starts N1 with no stones and no power but as he gets stones he gets powers. I would say Mod has given a safe claim to Thanos re Wanda. 

 

Preston also has an interesting theory that Thanos may be SK. This is not backed up because there were no double night kills so far. But I cannot discount that probability. But what I am sure about is that there is Thanos in the game and his probable power is exactly what Brewers has claimed that he has.

@TheWarrior

 

Can we get a vote and post count PLEAASSE

Everyone's having a busy weekend it seems, but I'll respond to what there is to stay current.

 

Interesting claim by brewers. Wanda as Universal Backup. It neatly ties in the night actions. N1 no action. N2 he protected DF. N3 he protected Velocity. 

 

He has claimed all these after he knew exactly who the Watcher and Tracker targetted on N2 and N3. If he claimed backup-doc before DF revealed who he had tracked on N2 and N3, I would immediately remove my vote from him. He has now claimed only after DF has revealed his actions, making it extremely safe for him to do so. He protected Velocity over lww on N3? This is completely unbeleivable from an experienced player. Zacch protecting Velocity makes sense because he is new to the game. But a veteran player leaving the cop open to a kill on the basis that he "thought" Zacch will protect lww? He talks about how he missed making a post telling Zacch to protect lww. So? You miss telling Zacch and do not adjust your target?? You leave the cop open to be killed (which is exactly what happened) instead of using your power for basically what it was meant for - to save the confirmed town cop? (jazz role claim confirmed lww is the actual cop). I call BS.

 

[...]

 

Now we look at what else matches thematically. What does a Universal Backup do? He basically gets the powers of the first power role townie that gets killed. We can say he absorbs the power. We go to the movies, which is one character in the Infinity War movie who gets powers from others? Thanos. He kills the avengers with stones, takes their stones and gets the stone abilities -> match that will the game and it means he gets their power roles. TW has been specifically been stating that Thanos is getting stones. So Thanos is a central player in this game, he is getting stones and probably getting powers. This exactly matches with what brewers' is claiming. Does Wada as someone who acts as a backup make sense thematically or Thanos absorbing powers make sense thematically? It is obvious to me.

 

I will now amend my theory. Thanos is not a godfather type of role. Thanos probably has a modified Absorber role. Stone-holders get killed and he gets their powers. He starts N1 with no stones and no power but as he gets stones he gets powers. I would say Mod has given a safe claim to Thanos re Wanda. 

 

Preston also has an interesting theory that Thanos may be SK. This is not backed up because there were no double night kills so far. But I cannot discount that probability. But what I am sure about is that there is Thanos in the game and his probable power is exactly what Brewers has claimed that he has.

First bit: yes, I point out in my post that Brewers' claim is unverifiable. This does not mean it MUST be false, but as a scum fakeclaim it would be a good one because we have no solid information to dispute it at this time. 

 

Second bit: I mentioned Absorber in my post It's part of what got me thinking/brainstorming about Thanos and roles again. Absorber on mafiascum is defined by getting powers when someone targets them, so a stone-based absorber would be a custom variant for this game - however given the degree to which TW has been calling out in big bold letters whenever Thanos gets a stone, that would fit with the setup.

 

Last bit: Part of the reason I am thinking a SK is that if Thanos is slated to acquire Cop as a stone role then it suggests Thanos may need to find the scum. Elaborating on that theory a little more here:

• We obviously haven't seen a second kill yet that would boost the probability of a SK being in play, but that also does not rule one out. When I was a SK in the past, TW gave me an even-night modifier. I skipped my N2 kill and didnt start until N4 to lay low. MK has also referenced this possibility as a smart SK move.
• If Thanos is due to acquire stone roles, then TW may have done the same here for the supposed SK's kill power - forcing them to trade off between kills to get stones and using stone powers to find more stone holders or scumhunt/prove himself town
• If this is the case then on N2 Brewers-As-Thanos-SK could have used the doctor role on DF as claimed to try and block a kill and prove himself for the rest of the game, both to lay low so that nobody would start talking about the potential of a SK too early and to cement his own town status if challenged
• Another interpretation is that Thanos doesn't get his own kill at all until/unless the rest of the scum die, in which case he takes over for the nightly kill. This would make Thanos more of a solo-winner/survivor sort of role - if he stays alive while all 6 stones are collected, possibly via proving himself town with his powers, then when the 6th stone is collected he just wins. Given that we're down to 2 stones left alive without a second visible kill on N1-N3, this appears quite feasible. 
• If SK-Thanos has been saving their kill til N4 like I did when I had mine, then we could very possibly see two kills tonight. And as I said before, I am worried about he potential for a two-stone night that just ends everything. If Zacch is guarding Velocity then it might prevent a single night steamroll, but it's risky all the same. 

 

@TheWarrior

 

Can we get a vote and post count PLEAASSE

 

Zacch, at a glance no votes have been cast or changed since TW's last count, so I'll quote it here for ease of reference. I do not have a POST count handy to work from, but the key bits are that iSoc2 is still silent, Velocity hasn't returned but claimed would do so on Sunday, and Brewers claimed he was going to be busy as well. Ideally we will see more talking tomorrow. 

 

 

Vote Count
 

iSocialism2.0 (3): Robert2424, Preston, Zacch

Imran Ehsan (1): Brewersalliance 

Brewersalliance (1): Imran Ehsan

Robert2424 (1): Lord MK

Lord MK (1): Lyner

Darkfox (0):

Lyner (0):

Preston (0):

Velocity (0):

Zacch (0): 

 

No Lynch (0):

 

Not Voting: Darkfox, iSocialism 2.0, Velocity

 

With 10 players alive it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline will be at 2:00PM CN Server time on Monday, September 5th.

 

 

As things stand, iSoc2 would be the day's lynch if nothing changes. I am guessing that he is laying low and hoping that people decide he's just inactive. If he suddenly pops up near the end of the day with an abrupt vote blitz on whatever wagon saves him, that could be a sign he's been watching. 

 

DF and Velocity still need to take a position on the day's wagons. Both are considered town at this point, so their perspective won't be marred by people second guessing whether they are secretly scum or something. 

 

iSoc2 remains my #1 due to his end-of-D2 showing against LWW and avoiding all other wagons (scum vote spreading), doubling down on that on D3 without justification, and several of my other potential scum targets seeming to actively sidestep/disregard him as though inactivity means he shouldn't be considered, instead of viewing it as laying low. 

 

My worry about Brewers-as-Thanos may be moving him up to my #2 or #3 at this point, depending on how iSoc2 flips. As stated we MIGHT get more information on him tonight to make talking about him tomorrow a better prospect, but we cannot count on that. He also semi-skipped iSoc2 during his rebuilt suspect list analysis - something to the effect of "I dont remember who he replaced, someone else dive into this one." However if he IS Thanos, he would potentially be much more critical/dangerous to remove from play than any other scum. 

 

Lyner is probably #3 at this point, based on his activity level, seeming lack of attention prior to today, and seeming to sidestep iSoc2 with an "inactive lol"

 

Robert and Imran are sortof contingent on Brewers and iSoc2 for me, given the way the three of them have been slinging attacks today. If Brewers really is Thanos, it could paint the pair of them in a different light.

 

Zacch, Velocity, DF, and MK are considered town to me at this point unless something MAJOR changes. 

 

FOS Preston

 

His posts are all super long but they are also super repetitive… and he’s pretty much avoided committing to anything this entire game. It’s starting to feel a bit off.

 

And one thing that does stand out to me here: each time he posts he seems to slowly be moving me up his “scum list”

 

Feels like he might be waiting to see if lynching me gains any traction before he commits to voting for me.

Or even he’s trying to point out reasons for people to vote me without having to vote me himself

 

Hypothetical:

if he is scum and gets people to vote me he can try to claim he stayed off my wagon when I flip town…

 

Just a thought

I dont think ISOC2 has posted yet today, unless I missed a post in the past 4 or so pages.

 

If he is town and going inactive like this, then thats a pretty dick move since this is pretty much our last shot to turn the tide.

 

I think he should be mod saved/replaced if not scum, otherwise its pretty much game over and how anti-climatic.

I dont think ISOC2 has posted yet today, unless I missed a post in the past 4 or so pages.

 

If he is town and going inactive like this, then thats a pretty dick move since this is pretty much our last shot to turn the tide.

 

I think he should be mod saved/replaced if not scum, otherwise its pretty much game over and how anti-climatic.

I’ve DMd TW a few times asking him to replace isoc but he hasn’t responded so I’m guessing we are stuck with him through deadline

Yay for having Saturday time to respond pity I cant be this available during the week. 

 

FOS Preston

His posts are all super long but they are also super repetitive… and he’s pretty much avoided committing to anything this entire game. It’s starting to feel a bit off.

And one thing that does stand out to me here: each time he posts he seems to slowly be moving me up his “scum list”

Feels like he might be waiting to see if lynching me gains any traction before he commits to voting for me.
Or even he’s trying to point out reasons for people to vote me without having to vote me himself

Hypothetical:
if he is scum and gets people to vote me he can try to claim he stayed off my wagon when I flip town…

Just a thought

 

Given that I have become more concerned about Brewers since his claim and have openly speculated that he is Thanos, I am not surprised to see him turn a FOS on me in response.

 

Speaking to what he says about my style: A lot of what I do is look for inconsistencies/oddities or unanswered questions and then see where the answers go. What is possible, what is proven or provable, etc. Being complete in that is part of why my posts tend to be pretty long, and repeating/restating what brought me to a given point is part of keeping my analysis consistent.

 

Brewers was pretty solidly in my likely Town list until today when we had to reexamine our suspect list and the question of what was going on with DF came up. The oddity of your N1 lack-of-action and then the coincidence of your claimed getting a doctor power at the same time Thanos got the Doctor's Time stone is something I can't ignore, and I don't think anyone else should either.

 

There are very valid reasons to be skeptical about an unproven/unprovable claim at this stage in the game, much as MK is/was skeptical of Velocity's unhelpful results and how Kevin's claim drew such attention. This new information has indeed adjusted my suspect list, as it should. That you are not currently the TOP of my suspect list is because I acknowledge how your claim /could/ be accurate, I am hoping for something more definitive to work with tomorrow that will settle your case. For the time being iSoc2 remains my #1 suspect for today, and I am sticking with that unless something else changes.

 

As for the idea that I avoid committing to anything though... kindly refer to how hard I pushed for Velocity on D3 prior to his roleclaim, based on his end-of-D2 actions and inconsistency he showed between D2 and D3 stances. Also how hard I am pushing for iSoc2 now, based on his D2 avoidance tactic and D2/D3 attacks on LWW, combined with sporadic presence that's kept him under the radar. I restate these positions in most of my posts, so I should hope they are not easily missed. Saying that I have avoided committing to anything is very much not accurate.

 

I am not going to imitate your/Imran's back-and-forth attacks in the vein of "you misrepresent me, you must be lying, lynch all liars!" because you can see me however you want. I think I have been pretty clear in my facts about why I am concerned about you based on today's claim, so it is not like I suddenly swapped to attack you out of nowhere. 

 

As for your hypothetical about me being scum and then trying to claim it wasn't me on the wagon - If you are a lynch that happens today or tomorrow and you flip town, then I don't think anyone would believe I was not involved with that, nor would I claim it. My reasons are an open book - a long series of books even, as people have joked multiple times this game.

 

I dont think ISOC2 has posted yet today, unless I missed a post in the past 4 or so pages.

 

If he is town and going inactive like this, then thats a pretty dick move since this is pretty much our last shot to turn the tide.

 

I think he should be mod saved/replaced if not scum, otherwise its pretty much game over and how anti-climatic.

 

I don't see any posts from him today either. See my earlier post for a suspicion that he will somehow conveniently pop up again with hours to go, having watched the thread in the meantime. 

 

If he really IS town and is just genuinely being inactive, then you're right that he probably shouldn't have accepted being Bryan's replacement. It doesnt make a lot of sense though, because he WAS abruptly active around Velocity's near-lynch yesterday... so he was able to be here when he WANTED to be, but then he went silent again. This is a large part of the reason that I am convinced he's really scum. 

 

With ~1.5 days left in the deadline, any action TW takes will be last minute. Obviously it's up to him as mod, but I don't think we as players can say something like "Only replace him if he is town, otherwise let him die as scum" because that would be asking the mod to basically tell us iSoc2's alignment before the day ends. As much as I'd love a no-risk scenario like that, it would be utterly gamebreaking and feel like cheating.

iSoc's profile shows he was active today so yeah idk why he didn't even post anything. 

 

 

Fine let's add a bit more pressure

 

Vote: iSoc

Yay for having Saturday time to respond pity I cant be this available during the week.

 

 

FOS Preston

 

His posts are all super long but they are also super repetitive… and he’s pretty much avoided committing to anything this entire game. It’s starting to feel a bit off.

 

And one thing that does stand out to me here: each time he posts he seems to slowly be moving me up his “scum list”

 

Feels like he might be waiting to see if lynching me gains any traction before he commits to voting for me.

Or even he’s trying to point out reasons for people to vote me without having to vote me himself

 

Hypothetical:

if he is scum and gets people to vote me he can try to claim he stayed off my wagon when I flip town…

 

Just a thought

Given that I have become more concerned about Brewers since his claim and have openly speculated that he is Thanos, I am not surprised to see him turn a FOS on me in response.

 

Speaking to what he says about my style: A lot of what I do is look for inconsistencies/oddities or unanswered questions and then see where the answers go. What is possible, what is proven or provable, etc. Being complete in that is part of why my posts tend to be pretty long, and repeating/restating what brought me to a given point is part of keeping my analysis consistent.

 

Brewers was pretty solidly in my likely Town list until today when we had to reexamine our suspect list and the question of what was going on with DF came up. The oddity of your N1 lack-of-action and then the coincidence of your claimed getting a doctor power at the same time Thanos got the Doctor's Time stone is something I can't ignore, and I don't think anyone else should either.

 

There are very valid reasons to be skeptical about an unproven/unprovable claim at this stage in the game, much as MK is/was skeptical of Velocity's unhelpful results and how Kevin's claim drew such attention. This new information has indeed adjusted my suspect list, as it should. That you are not currently the TOP of my suspect list is because I acknowledge how your claim /could/ be accurate, I am hoping for something more definitive to work with tomorrow that will settle your case. For the time being iSoc2 remains my #1 suspect for today, and I am sticking with that unless something else changes.

 

As for the idea that I avoid committing to anything though... kindly refer to how hard I pushed for Velocity on D3 prior to his roleclaim, based on his end-of-D2 actions and inconsistency he showed between D2 and D3 stances. Also how hard I am pushing for iSoc2 now, based on his D2 avoidance tactic and D2/D3 attacks on LWW, combined with sporadic presence that's kept him under the radar. I restate these positions in most of my posts, so I should hope they are not easily missed. Saying that I have avoided committing to anything is very much not accurate.

 

I am not going to imitate your/Imran's back-and-forth attacks in the vein of "you misrepresent me, you must be lying, lynch all liars!" because you can see me however you want. I think I have been pretty clear in my facts about why I am concerned about you based on today's claim, so it is not like I suddenly swapped to attack you out of nowhere.

 

As for your hypothetical about me being scum and then trying to claim it wasn't me on the wagon - If you are a lynch that happens today or tomorrow and you flip town, then I don't think anyone would believe I was not involved with that, nor would I claim it. My reasons are an open book - a long series of books even, as people have joked multiple times this game.

I dont think ISOC2 has posted yet today, unless I missed a post in the past 4 or so pages.

 

If he is town and going inactive like this, then thats a pretty dick move since this is pretty much our last shot to turn the tide.

 

I think he should be mod saved/replaced if not scum, otherwise its pretty much game over and how anti-climatic.

I don't see any posts from him today either. See my earlier post for a suspicion that he will somehow conveniently pop up again with hours to go, having watched the thread in the meantime.

 

If he really IS town and is just genuinely being inactive, then you're right that he probably shouldn't have accepted being Bryan's replacement. It doesnt make a lot of sense though, because he WAS abruptly active around Velocity's near-lynch yesterday... so he was able to be here when he WANTED to be, but then he went silent again. This is a large part of the reason that I am convinced he's really scum.

 

With ~1.5 days left in the deadline, any action TW takes will be last minute. Obviously it's up to him as mod, but I don't think we as players can say something like "Only replace him if he is town, otherwise let him die as scum" because that would be asking the mod to basically tell us iSoc2's alignment before the day ends. As much as I'd love a no-risk scenario like that, it would be utterly gamebreaking and feel like cheating.

I mean considering there are 10 players alive and either 3 or 4 scum and it’s not velo, dark fox, zacch, (or me since I know I’m town), to me that means that there is a 50-66% chance that Preston, MK, lyner, isoc, imran and Robert are scum.

 

Did an FoS on present cause I’m pretty sure I accused lyner, imran, and Robert of being scum before and odds are I am not 100% correct on those three, isoc is inactive so we can’t really go by anything other than that one vote of his on d2 I think, MK I’m still leaning prob town because he’s playing like MK does when he’s town. So yeah. Everyone needs to be scrutinized at this point of the game and I feel like everyone has other than Preston- he’s mainly gotten a pass cause of his massively long posts that for the most part to me do not feel like fresh thoughts and rather just summaries of what other people have said first. He could very well be town, but he’s basically been ignored as a possible suspect all game, mainly cause of the insane length of his posts. I have no issues with him talking about me but for me it just feels interesting how his progression has been.

 

I still feel imran is the best choice for the lunch, but looks like it’s gonna be isoc.

 

OOC- why would isoc come back into the game as a replacement only to not participate? Confused me

 

If there are four scum and we lose cause of a mis lynch on an inactive player, I think we have every right to be very mad at the mod for not replacing him…

 

 

Part of the reason I am thinking a SK is that if Thanos is slated to acquire Cop as a stone role then it suggests Thanos may need to find the scum.

 

This is actually a very god point. If Thanos/brewers is SK, he can make good use of cop ability. Scum will have no use for it. Lets go through my theory again to see if Thanos/brewers = SK fits.

 

1. N1 - no action, did not have Doc ability. Either because he had no (new) stones and hence no ability, OR Thanos had 2 stones from begining and one of them may have been odd/even night kill ability. But he knew DF is tracking him on N1 so he sat still.

 

2. N2 - received doc ability from Dr. Strange. Claimed to have protected DF. Probably a false claim with no way to prove it. More likely he protected someone else with the hope that DF will track him and see him visit someone who did not die. After DF's reveal he knew DF didnt track him. So he claimed to have protected DF with the claim he did so to trap scum into hitting DF. This claim probably was done to counter my statement where I said townie will not be harping about DF being 99.99% town and put DF directly in the cross hairs of scum.

 

3. N3 - Claimed to have protected Velocity. Which makes no sense whatsoever when there is a confirmed Cop out there. This fits because he doesnt want the Cop to survive, who can probably ID him as "Not Guilty".

 

So Thanos/brewers = SK fits as well. This will mean SK + 2/3 scum in the game.

sorry in #3, I meant to say the Cop could probably ID him as "Guilty"

Anyways that’s my Preston thought

 

More thoughts using the isoc wagon

 

Votes on isoc: Robert, Preston, zacch (town), lyner

 

I think lyners position on this wagon is clear:

 

If isoc is indeed scum and inactive, lyners vote could very well be a buss. Isoc is the clear favorite to be lynched and we are getting close to deadline

 

If isoc is town, it puts him safely ahead with a fourth vote and basically secures the lunch of an inactive townie and moves scum very close to getting a win

 

Lyner being where he is on the wagon and voting when he did, (just recently) as well as the other things I mentioned makes him entrenched as my number 2 scum

 

Imran is my top scum

Lyner #2

Robert 3

Preston/Mk both wildcards

Isoc inactive and needs to be replaced no matter what his alignment is tbh

Vote Count
 

iSocialism2.0 (4): Robert2424, Preston, Zacch, Lyner

Imran Ehsan (1): Brewersalliance

Brewersalliance (1): Imran Ehsan

Robert2424 (1): Lord MK

Lord MK (0):

Darkfox (0):

Lyner (0):

Preston (0):

Velocity (0):

Zacch (0): 

 

No Lynch (0):

 

Not Voting: Darkfox, iSocialism 2.0, Velocity

 

With 10 players alive it takes 6 to lynch or 3 at deadline.
Deadline will be at 2:00PM CN Server time on Monday, September 5th
 
 
 

Not Voting: Darkfox, iSocialism 2.0, Velocity

 

So these 3 needs to start making opinions

Of these, 2 are considered town by the majority, so it would be useful if they place their votes and state what they think

I am a bit gun shy since we still have yet to get a single scum. However sitting back isn't going to help us either. Right now we need people actively participating in order for town to win. There are still a few who have not posted much at all, and iSoc being the most suspicious of the bunch so I am going to go with a gut feeling here

 

vote: iSoc

Anyways that’s my Preston thought

 

More thoughts using the isoc wagon

 

Votes on isoc: Robert, Preston, zacch (town), lyner

 

I think lyners position on this wagon is clear:

 

If isoc is indeed scum and inactive, lyners vote could very well be a buss. Isoc is the clear favorite to be lynched and we are getting close to deadline

 

If isoc is town, it puts him safely ahead with a fourth vote and basically secures the lunch of an inactive townie and moves scum very close to getting a win

 

Lyner being where he is on the wagon and voting when he did, (just recently) as well as the other things I mentioned makes him entrenched as my number 2 scum

 

Imran is my top scum

Lyner #2

Robert 3

Preston/Mk both wildcards

Isoc inactive and needs to be replaced no matter what his alignment is tbh

Damned if I do, damned if I don't. You would still come up with other accusation if I didn't vote iSoc today.

 

Either brewers has a severe confirmation bias or I'm being setup by him. Literally everyone that tried to prod you today gets a FoS.

One more vote and ISOC2 is lynched.

 

Lets get this day over with.

Pretty sure isoc is gonna be scum… with this game so late and no scum dead and the potential for this to be MYLO if there are four scum, I don’t see TW not replacing him, considering I’ve asked him serveral times to do so. He could have brought back LWW or tony to take over, especially with the potential for the game to be on the line. Would be a very shitty way for town to lose.

 

Im not gonna hammer isoc on the off chance TW brings someone in at the 11th hour but I doubt he will.

 

Okay so zacch and I both have protective roles. I’m hesitant to discuss who we should protect as scum could then game plan around it. However at the same time Velo has a stone and we need to make sure he is protected. Scum have a role blocker so if we don’t both go on velo they could block one of us and the kill him.

 

I’m kind of torn if we should game plan or not.

There is at most a 50% chance that iSoc is scum. Either he is a townie who is inactive or scum who is acting inactive. He has been so inactive throughout the game that there is pretty much nothing that indicates scum behavior apart from some post he made regarding lww. While 50% odds may be good to lynch on d2 or even d3, it certainly is nowhere close to ideal on d4 with all scum remaining.

 

Brewers aka Thanos the scum boss/SK should be our lynch today. Its disappointing people are taking the seemingly safe option of lynching an inactive, but well the coin flip may fall in our favor as well. I will take consolation in the fact that if Thanos is SK he will hesitate to use his night kill ability today with the spotlight partly on him.

inactive, yes. scum? no.

 

I'm Bruce Banner, a vanilla avenger.

 

My inactivity has nothing to do with my allegiance. Just a long week and little time to tackle all the pointless walls of text. 

 

I ended day 3 with brewer high on my list, but after reading his comments I will say that he has flipped more to town IMO.

Brewer is calling and prodding a lot of people. I don't think scum would actively make sure everyone is commenting, but hey, it is brewer.

 

LWW pressure from me was before he was a known cop. He's actions and comments seemed more to follow the crowd and not much else. I have stated that before.

Saying that I pressured a cop is untrue. I pressured LWW as an unknown player.

 

My lack of activeness definitely does not help the town. More because it allows scum to sway votes towards myself without push back. inactive are always an easy target.

 

MK has stated that he know for sure that Velocity is scum. but I haven't seen why. Along with a lot of other players having a hard feeling for someone but not voting in the style of their talk.

 

The grouping of myself and lyner is also a red flag. It's like trying to convince someone that person A is scum because person B seems scummy. It's not logically.

unvote

Lyner piles on with the fourth vote - possible scum sacrifice given the way things are going, trying to claim town credit for being part of the wagon? Previously he was so dismissive of the idea.

 

Despite the inevitable feeling that Zacch commented on, no hammer came - no scum moving to lock in the day's lynch. With this many votes and Zacch/myself as town, that boosts my confidence that iSoc2 is scum.

 

Imran continues to push for a Brewers wagon today - no change there, just with the added focus of Brewers potentially being Thanos. 

 

And then iSoc2 comes back with less than a day left, claiming VT in a role madness game. 

 

inactive, yes. scum? no.

 

I'm Bruce Banner, a vanilla avenger.

 

My inactivity has nothing to do with my allegiance. Just a long week and little time to tackle all the pointless walls of text. 

 

I ended day 3 with brewer high on my list, but after reading his comments I will say that he has flipped more to town IMO.

Brewer is calling and prodding a lot of people. I don't think scum would actively make sure everyone is commenting, but hey, it is brewer.

 

LWW pressure from me was before he was a known cop. He's actions and comments seemed more to follow the crowd and not much else. I have stated that before.

Saying that I pressured a cop is untrue. I pressured LWW as an unknown player.

 

My lack of activeness definitely does not help the town. More because it allows scum to sway votes towards myself without push back. inactive are always an easy target.

 

MK has stated that he know for sure that Velocity is scum. but I haven't seen why. Along with a lot of other players having a hard feeling for someone but not voting in the style of their talk.

 

The grouping of myself and lyner is also a red flag. It's like trying to convince someone that person A is scum because person B seems scummy. It's not logically.

 

First off his timing is certainly convenient - it tracks with the idea that he could have been watching and hoping that the wagon would tip another direction instead before he broke his silence, especially if he was observed with an online profile earlier and has not posted until now. 

 

Vanilla Townie - as in a town role with no power at all - is another unverifiable role claim, but unlike Brewers there's no prospect of our watcher or tracker being able to solidly confirm it tonight. DF could track iSoc2 and at most get that nothing happened, but even then it could be false because iSoc2-as-scum could choose to take no action for the night and just let another scum perform the kill. Even a negative result would not prove iSoc2 is legit.

 

Looking at the role from a flavor/theme standpoint - Bruce Banner/Hulk I would have considered for some kind of a Strongman power or similar. In the movie he also makes use of Hulkbuster armor, so that is another way to have possibly fit a role to the name - but I am more skeptical of a VT at this point than I am of Brewers' Universal Backup claim. There is no stone associated with this name so it could be a safe claim per earlier discussion, which would fit if TW wanted a scum that got caught by any of our tracker/watcher variants to be able to instead claim Vigilante or something: i.e. "I'm the Hulk, that was my kill power"

 

iSoc2 speaks more here about his LWW pressure. I will agree that iSoc2 likely did not know LWW was cop at the end of D2 or on D3 when he doubled down on it being a "Gut feeling", but his choice to attack LWW at the end of D2 was also a decision to stay off the Kevin wagon right after replacing Bryan, and then nothing else for the rest of the day. This still to me feels like scum not wanting to be associated anything else as that day ended by spreading out votes to a wagon with no argument or logic behind it.

 

He also explicitly tries to put some distance between himself and Lyner, right after Lyner voted for him. I'm also not sure from his text that he understood what's been put forward as a theory, so I'll be clear about this in case anyone else missed it. I've previously called out how Lyner (and Brewers and even Imran today) have been dismissive of iSoc2... acting like there was nothing there to pay attention to when reworking suspect lists today, basically leaving him out of consideration. The idea here is that if someone downplayed iSoc2 as even an option, that's a way of protecting him. Therefore if iSoc2 subsequently flips scum, anyone that tacitly ignored him will look more scummy as a result. 

 

If Lyner was trying to protect iSoc2 by dismissing his absence as "inactive lol" but then swapped stances and now jumped on the wagon for credit, and now iSoc2 is trying to say "I'm not with Lyner", that has the appareance of two scum trying to make as much distance as possible before iSoc2 flips. Thus the concept remains that if iSoc2 flips scum, Lyner/Brewers and maybe Imran per today will have been trying to keep that from happening. 

 

This is basically just too convenient of a return and untestable claim for me to change my position. I think this remains the most likely scum of those who remain, and has the potential to chain to other scum based on actions that were taken to not pursue him. 

 

And at the risk of being a bit cruel/heartless here - if somehow iSoc2 really IS town and his claim is legit, then losing him is not losing a power role that could turn the tide tomorrow, similar to Kevin on D2 accepting his lynch by saying that he was "only a Voyeur" - i.e. not the most useful role, less of an impact to lose him.

 

Pretty sure isoc is gonna be scum… with this game so late and no scum dead and the potential for this to be MYLO if there are four scum, I don’t see TW not replacing him, considering I’ve asked him serveral times to do so. He could have brought back LWW or tony to take over, especially with the potential for the game to be on the line. Would be a very shitty way for town to lose.

Im not gonna hammer isoc on the off chance TW brings someone in at the 11th hour but I doubt he will.

Okay so zacch and I both have protective roles. I’m hesitant to discuss who we should protect as scum could then game plan around it. However at the same time Velo has a stone and we need to make sure he is protected. Scum have a role blocker so if we don’t both go on velo they could block one of us and the kill him.

I’m kind of torn if we should game plan or not.

 

To briefly address Brewers' question about gameplanning tonight's actions - I don't know what we can say in thread that won't just telegraph to scum what is being done tonight so they can plan around it. The main things we have going is that with a (TBD) Doctor and Bodyguard there's two potential means to block or redirect a kill, and we have both a Tracker and Watcher alive. Based on Velocity being blocked last night in tandem with LWW's kill I'd agree with the assessment that scum has a roleblocker, but they cannot block both protection methods AND both detection methods. Fingers crossed we have good odds of catching someone red-handed tonight. There is also the potential of a second kill tonight if the theoretical SK Thanos - be it Brewers or not - makes an appearance. Of course, none of this is exactly NEWS - but going into tonight it will be good to keep all of this in mind.

inactive, yes. scum? no.

 

I'm Bruce Banner, a vanilla avenger.

 

My inactivity has nothing to do with my allegiance. Just a long week and little time to tackle all the pointless walls of text.

 

I ended day 3 with brewer high on my list, but after reading his comments I will say that he has flipped more to town IMO.

Brewer is calling and prodding a lot of people. I don't think scum would actively make sure everyone is commenting, but hey, it is brewer.

 

LWW pressure from me was before he was a known cop. He's actions and comments seemed more to follow the crowd and not much else. I have stated that before.

Saying that I pressured a cop is untrue. I pressured LWW as an unknown player.

 

My lack of activeness definitely does not help the town. More because it allows scum to sway votes towards myself without push back. inactive are always an easy target.

 

MK has stated that he know for sure that Velocity is scum. but I haven't seen why. Along with a lot of other players having a hard feeling for someone but not voting in the style of their talk.

 

The grouping of myself and lyner is also a red flag. It's like trying to convince someone that person A is scum because person B seems scummy. It's not logically.

Ok this is just bs.

No way you are just a vt in this game.

It's a role madness game and you just happen to be powerless.

I mean, sure.

Thematically, Bruce was basically a VT in infinity war.

But a bit too convenient for my taste.