I am finally back online! Sorry for the extended silence, I did give the thread warning and my timetable. A lot has happened today as well, and I've got the perspective of reading it all at once instead of a bit at a time. I'll do a more detailed re-read later tonight, but here's my first impressions from a single pass through Day 2 (apologies if some of this is duplicative, still fresh for me):
- Losing the doctor is going to make any future claims very risky; scum got lucky there. Wonder why iSoc out of everyone drew their attention?
- The time stone mechanic sounds interesting - prompts a WHOLE series of questions and theories!
- Appears like stones are tied to certain named roles - Vision is suggested, who else might have one?
- Thanos could be a NPC condition that procs if all stones are collected
- Thanos could be a SK-equivalent - what would that mean? Could they be a JoAT that gets powers depending on stones collected?
- As a subset of this, there was no second death last night - when I last played SK I was given an even-night mod on my killing.
- Also maybe the potential Thanos SK doesn't have a killing power yet - power stone?
- I'm probably speculating too heavily into this, but this feels really interesting and nobody really talked about it beyond the first few posts
- Mk *immediately* votes for Brewers with little preamble. I was already curious why he'd voted Velocity on D1, that was never really explained. Abrupt start to D2.
- KevinH's claim was a huge surprise - doubly so because it doesn't really seem to ADD anything at first pass?
- Brewers actually makes a strong point that Kevin may have claimed preemptively to give an excuse for if he was tracked.
- Zacch REALLY drew my attention for trying to set up another role reveal to confirm Kevin. With the doctor dead this feels like all worlds of a bad idea
- KevinH acknowledges Brewers' logic that he claimed to explain if he was tracked, as part of his claim explanation. Later elaboration is in the vein of saying he has a weak role and lynched he's not a huge loss
- I don't really follow KevinH's logic for why Tony - feels like a stretch, especially with Imran's point the Velocity -> Tony vote that Kevin uses as a logical basis was so early in D1.
- Robert kinda ties himself to Kevin by supporting Tony and leaving a vote there even after Tony starts posting for himself to show he's got access again
- I really dont know what to say about Lyner's derp voting for the dead iSoc... Imran calls this out as maybe a cover post, but I dont think scum would intentionally be that stupid. He retargets onto Tony afterward as a competing wagon instead of taking the easy out of jumping onto Kevin - curious.
- I had to look up the "Innocent Child" role that MK referenced. It COULD be interesting to get a wagon against him and then get mod-confirmed to turn it around, but that's a bit convoluted and doesnt thematically match the claimed name.
- Jazzy comes back and draws everyone's attention by avoiding voting
Okay - wow. A lot so far alright. We have until Thursday afternoon to make a decision.
After reading the whole day with fresh eyes, the thing that stands out to me the MOST is: why is NOBODY talking about the fact that KevinH claimed BLACK WIDOW of all names???? Seriously people - that is one of the actual Avengers that the game is named after; an INCREDIBLY brazen name for someone to try and fakeclaim! Hell, on Day 1 Kevin added a note that his No-Lynch vote is what the Avengers would do.
Maybe I missed it skimming the thread to catch up, the the closest I see to discussion about KevinH's name was Jazzy's post. Jazzy notes that Voyeur is thematic with Black Widow (It is), but then also goes on to comment that the name could also be fake - which again runs into my point that even TRYING to fake a name that central to the Avengers plot feels like an utterly wild and insane risk that no scum would want to take.
With all of that said as my strong first impresson, let me now consider the other side of the coin.
Kevin claiming early felt very strange since it offered so little beyond the name itself. This was one of the first posts of the day so the town hadn't even gotten started on things to talk about yet, and this certainly took the focus off discussing whatever Thanos and the stones implied. Similarly the logic of "prove mod was not killing people" feels like it was a response to Zacch's speculation about a predetermined order of death by mod kill... the idea feels ludicrous for a Mafia game, so why would Kevin have felt the need to refute it?
If Kevin is scum and is for some reason using such a central script name for his fakeclaim, I would put high odds that someone else has the *actual* Black Widow role (again one of the titular Avengers) and thus *knows* Kevin is scum. To hard counter Kevin they would have to name claim, which is a very dangerous prospect with the Doctor now dead. However they would go the rest of the game knowing that Kevin outed himself as scum on Day 2 for seemingly no gain other than fooling a tracker that might not have been tracking him in the first place. Also if that person ever died then Kevin would immediately be on the chopping block.
Considering this, I briefly entertained the idea that Kevin is actually a Jester and TRYING to get lynched... but mafiascum wiki says that's a Bastard mod role and it doesnt feel like easy/early out is a way that TW would want this game to play.
So TLDR right now I am of the mindset that Kevin is town, albeit with an extremely awkward claim that painted a huge target on his own back.
We've got 5 votes on Kevin right now. I'd want to say that scum are weighing that wagon down, but due to the awkwardness of Kevin's claim I can't fully blame town for joining them. Per my above statement Brewers made the point about Kevin claiming to explain his role to a tracker before anyone else, and that logic Kevin himself later acknowledged.
Tony is the other wagon that has more than one person right now. Per above I'm not sure I follow Kevin's logic there, even if I think Kevin is town.
The one that has stood out to me the most so far today is Zacch. His proposal to test kevin by baiting another role claim to prove him on D3 was a red flag for me. This comes after his D1 performance that I already thought was notable (i.e. claiming to have been baiting reactions)
As a secondary I am also now watching Jazzy: his two-sided discussion of Kevin's role name feels like it's coming from guilty knowledge; i.e. he both talks about voyeur being a fit and then says the name could be fake. Zacch's D1 vote for Jazzy suggests that the two are not aligned, but could have been distancing.
As it stands I am more suspicious of Zacch trying to bait a second claim with the doctor dead than Kevin's vote-chain theory that is justifying the Tony wagon, so here's my money where my mouth is. I'd rather test Zacch than Tony at this juncture, while there's still time to swap wagons to what I think is a more promising subject.
Vote: Zacch
At minimum I encourage more discussion about the nature of Kevin's claimed name and my theory that it's just too obvious/brazen to be fake. I'd rather not be proven right by Kevin flipping town.