655 replies to this topic

[Nerau]

computer issues and work i hate them both

 

Roleblocking me is a mistake as i have no role choose to believe that or not

 

tho it does concern me why rafay is still here

[Nerau]

also rafay once more nerau is a he  

[Commander Shepard]

I wonder if KevinH killed the vig.

[Imran Ehsan]

CS is right. We should not put too much emphasis on role claims on Day 2. kevinH may indeed be the Vig but as CS is pondering he may be one of the scum who killed the real vig, Martino. It will make sense for scum to role claim now if they got the vig last night because they dont know if the Dietician investigated them or not.

 

Also I will point out that assuming Nerau is townie just based on Rafay's RB is risky. He may be one of the scum who didnt send in the NK.

 

However, we need to lynch correctly today so we can assume that at least one of them is not lying. So we can lynch one of the others and cross our fingers. Theres a good chance we will hit scum in one of the following: CS, Euclid, Lyner and karl.

 

I have left myself out as I know I am townie but you can include me in the list if you wish. Rafay is confirmed townie to me (reason posted in my previous post) and we are giving benefit of doubt to kevin and Nerau.

[Commander Shepard]

KevinH, on 13 May 2013 - 22:40, said:

KevinH, on 29 Apr 2013 - 15:44, said:

the Vigilante will most likely kill a townie. When it happens, I'll say, "I told you so."

 
I told you so.

How do I know the Vigilante killed a townie?

Because I am he.
 

Martino, on 29 Apr 2013 - 17:27, said:

vote KevinH
We've had this discussion countless times before. Until we have lost the game, the vig/lynch is always numerically more likely to target a townie. That does not mean that it is in our favor to sit around until we have lost.

Martino, on 05 May 2013 - 18:21, said:

I will be voting for whoever has the most votes between Nerau, KevinH and Euclid. There is no reason to still have your vote on Rafay. For now, that means I'm keeping my vote on KevinH.

Martino, on 06 May 2013 - 22:20, said:

I don't want him to claim a specific role, because it would make it easier for the scum to decide what to do.

Martino, on 08 May 2013 - 12:54, said:

Anyway, I am voting for KevinH because I suspect him more than anyone else.

I felt Martino was scum because of these posts. It was a weak reason to vote for me in the first place (I suggested the Vigilante shouldn't kill the first night). He kept his vote on me because I was voting for Rafay. He didn't want Rafay to claim specifically. He probably would have continued to vote for me during this day. For these reasons, I used the Vigilante kill and targeted him.

I felt Martino was scum, but I was wrong. He was a Vanilla Townie.

Why am I role-claiming? I'm taking a chance, but I am going to risk the game by believing Rafay is truly the Roleblocker. The scum now have to choose between two power roles to night kill. They might still prefer to try for the Dietician.

The Dietician might have investigated me and found Cannibal. Hopefully they'll believe my claim since I'm posting it first.

It's useful for the Townies to know Martino was a Vanilla Townie.

There are still at least 2 scum out there. The Serial Killer wouldn't die from one shot and at most one Mafia Goon was killed by the Serial Killer.

I'll use my kill tonight, too, so there will most likely be 4 more dead players after a lynch today and 3 kills in the night. That will bring it down to probably 4 players alive tomorrow and the lynch or lose scenario.

So ... Martino's scum-hunting was totally wrong ... I'm townie ... who should we lynch today?

 

 

 

I am curious as to why you decided to come forward as the vig so early in this day when nobody is even voting you.

To give the scum more to think about? If the scum had something to think about they would have killed Rafay on the first night.

 

If Rafay was to make it through this day then they have 2 "power roles" targets to choose from, Rafay isn't a priority as already proven.

You however maybe be now, the vig coming out for no reason to give a the scum a non choice makes no sense for you to do.

Quite honestly I hope you're not town as this is a horrible play, I don't see it ending well for the town.

I'm disappointed the "vig" came out so early, at least wait till day 3.

 

Think about it KevinH, what did you add to help the town?

Do you have any leads on scum?

The only thing I can see you did was kill a townie and claim you're the vig just now.

It's ridiculous why would anyone reveal themselves over a dead player such a Martino, and the non choice between you and Rafay is not a logical reason.

And we already assumed 3 townies died, it doesn't help us all that much.

 

 

And then there is the chance you killed the vig and claimed his role.

[Commander Shepard]

@KevinH, And why didn't you do it in Day 1 when there was a good chance you were going to get lynched?

[Imran Ehsan]

Also question kevinh. You advocated strongly for the Vig not to kill on Night 1 as shown below:

 

Quote

Town Canibal Vigilante is an interesting situation.  Odds are that he will hit a townie if he night-kills but but maybe he can get lucky at hit scum.  It's a bit analygous to the town needing to get lucky with a lynch. However, there is not the added benefit of the voting patterns.  I'm inclined to think his best play would be to not kill the first night because of the additional chance that he might get the Dietician or Roleblocker which would deprive the town of those chances for "luck".  On later nights, the odds are greater that he'll hit scum and if he does hit scum, he'll get their larder and some information with that.

 

Quote

For what it's worth, I "suggest" that the Vigilante not kill tonight. One may think that 30% chance of hitting scum is good, but I think that 70% chance of hitting townie is bad.

 

 

What changed your mind?

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@KevinH

I think Imran and CS have raised some valid reasons to doubt your claim. Specifically:
- Why did you not claim when you almost got lynched yesterday?
- Why did you advocate no vig NK and then killed someone anyway?
- Why would you claim at this point when you don't have any leads on scum? All you got is a VT confirmation on a deceased player.

But okay, let's take a look at your stated reasons in #440. I see 3 of them.

 

KevinH, on 13 May 2013 - 22:40, said:

Why am I role-claiming? I'm taking a chance, but I am going to risk the game by believing Rafay is truly the Roleblocker. The scum now have to choose between two power roles to night kill. They might still prefer to try for the Dietician.

This seems off. First, choice is good so how is it in the interest of town to give the scum a choice of good night kills? Second, although indeed the scum now have to chose, since there are two scum factions they may very well get lucky and each kill one of the now exposed power roles. How does that benefit the town? Third, the possibility that they prefer to try for the dietician already existed before you claimed and in fact will only have diminished due to your claim.

 

KevinH, on 13 May 2013 - 22:40, said:

The Dietician might have investigated me and found Cannibal. Hopefully they'll believe my claim since I'm posting it first.

This seems off too. The dietician might have investigated any of 10 players. The dietician might have been killed already. How does the "benefit" of "hopefully they'll believe my claim since I'm posting it first" on the off chance that they did investigate you outweigh the downside of painting a huge target on the vig?

 

KevinH, on 13 May 2013 - 22:40, said:

It's useful for the Townies to know Martino was a Vanilla Townie.

Again, this seems off. This information would have been much more useful if the deceased player had been a PR or a goon. A confirmed VT is primarily useful when he is still alive. Also, Martino was likely VT anyway, as there were 6 of them to start with. Confirming this postmortem is not really that big a deal. As such rather than calling this piece of information "useful" I would call it not completely useless.
 

Now let's look at it from the perspective of a SK KevinH that killed Martino the vig.

If you are the SK and we believe your vig claim you'd be is sure to still be around tomorrow. You'd even have a good chance to still have your NK immunity after tonight. The vig is dead after all, while the goons may prefer to target Rafay or try for the dietician. As you will kill someone tonight you'd be in a perfect position to continue your vig masquerade tomorrow and thus survive Day 3 as well, especially if you get lucky and night kill a goon. The Day 2 and 3 lynches and the 2 night 2 kills would have you go into night 3 with only 3 opponents left and a good chance to either still have your NK immunity or be the last NK role left in the game. You would thus come out of night 3 in a LYLO situation, i.e. with a decent chance to win the game. Given that you almost got lynched yesterday, that looks like a pretty good play for SK KevinH.

And there's another thing, KevinH, why did you wait with your claim until after Rafay had disclosed his Nerau block? If you are the SK I can see the reason. You'd have one-shot RB immunity and wouldn't know if Rafay had blocked you or not as your night kill would have succeeded in either case. You would therefore have risked getting caught if you claimed before Rafay disclosed his block. If you are the vig you would not have that concern and you could have just as well claimed before Rafay disclosed his Nerau block.

 

Given all of the above I am inclined to assume that your claim is false tbh. I'll give you an opportunity to respond to these arguments though before I make up my mind. I am however pretty sure now that you are a cannibal, that you killed Martino and that either he was or you are the vig.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

@Nerau

 

You posted and commented on Rafay blocking you. Why did you not also comment on my case against Lyner and on KevinH's role claim? Share your thoughts please.

[Lyner]

 

Quote

 

Lyner, on 13 May 2013 - 15:12, said:

#419 : Kevin has been pro-town from the start for all I can see, while killgor was low on opinions, it's clear who I should vote for, and that was not a motivation nor reason to vote, it's addendum :|

IIRC killgor was pretty vocal about his suspicions of and Kazio and me. Why would you say he was low on opinions? Especially since KevinH has IMO mostly been talking about game mechanics rather than having actual opinions of other players. So, not buying this.

Well then your fault, it's a subjective matter, I guess my playstyle is a bit same with Kevin
 

 

Quote

1. So, we agree that most your posts were fluff.
2. So, we agree that you mostly attacked inactives. Of course it is hard to read inactives on Day 2. The same is true for fluff posters though. Oh wait, that's you.
3. So, we agree that you did not suspect or question anything or anyone.
4 & 5. Yes, I do say that, other than your inactives lynch policy, you didn't give your opinion. The #107 you refer to is just another example of you attacking an inactive, Xaras in that case.
6. You asked for people's opinion several times. Not with any specific questions though. You just call out their name. That's just fluff. You don't give your own opinions and try to hide that by directing attention to others. That's my take on that anyway.

 

1 & 3. Say what you will, I don't see any problems with what I did

2. So what is the right thing to do, Mr. Confidence? If you think that my posts were fluffs, that it can't be helped

4 & 5. "Also when I don't say anything then that means I don't have any useful opinion IMO"

6. Opinions of the current situation, please refer to that for any future case, and nah, staying silent is better than directing attention to others if I played as mafia

 

Quote

Fluff. Or, looking at your emphasis, is this supposed to be a soft claim?

 

Neither, re-think it, even vanilla townies have their own roles

 

Quote

Well that's odd. In #380 you say "I'm still not convinced that rafay is a
scum, he attracted too much suspicion into himself." Since then all
Rafay did was claim RB and claim that he blocked Nerau. Since by your
own word there is nothing suspicious about the latter it follows that
your "overall impression" changed from not being convinced Rafay is scum
to suspecting Rafay just over his (forced) RB claim. Care to explain
why exactly that was suspicious? Also, why did you not mention those
suspicions at the time?

 

 

 

I'm still not convinced that rafay is a scum, he attracted too much suspicion into himself. though I agree that he is more suspicious than the rests, that's all

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Why am I the only one voting?

[Commander Shepard]

I'd prefer if we all took our voting easy for now.

Let the discussion develop, we got ~10 days left.

I need 2 - 3 real life days more before I decide to vote.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Voting helps to get the discussion going. Voting helps the town to get reads on you. Voting provokes reactions and scum slips. Therefore not voting is anti-town.

 

Your vote is your weapon. Use it!

 

You have all the discussion of Day 1, the VT flip of killgor, the night kills and the discussion so far of Day 2 to base your vote on. That should be plenty to have a hunch at least. There's no reason to wait 2-3 RL days with voting as you can simply change your vote in 2-3 days if you see things different then.

[Commander Shepard]

I'd prefer to wait until this KevinH saga is over anyway, before doing something. 

[Commander Shepard]

People still have yet to answer my questions....

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Then vote for someone who is not answering your questions...

 

In the mean time, you've read my case against Lyner, what's your read on him?

[Commander Shepard]

That would be rude, I'll wait for them.

I get a bad vibe off Lyner initially but then I look into his posts and I see something else.

I still don't trust him though, he could be playing me with words.

I trust him no more than KevinH, so there is a bit of belief but not much.

[KevinH]

Commander Shepard, on 14 May 2013 - 08:19, said:

I am curious as to why you decided to come forward as the vig so early in this day when nobody is even voting you.
...
what did you add to help the town?
Do you have any leads on scum?

Commander Shepard, on 14 May 2013 - 08:23, said:

And why didn't you do it in Day 1 when there was a good chance you were going to get lynched?

Imran Ehsan, on 14 May 2013 - 08:33, said:

You advocated strongly for the Vig not to kill on Night 1 ...
What changed your mind?

Euclid of Alexandria, on 14 May 2013 - 10:45, said:

- Why did you not claim when you almost got lynched yesterday?
- Why did you advocate no vig NK and then killed someone anyway?
- Why would you claim at this point when you don't have any leads on scum?

So many questions ...

My rationale for coming forward was to firmly state that Martino was townie. There might have been an assumption that there were 3 townies killed but we could have hoped that maybe the vigilante killed a scum. That's useful.

We know the Serial Killer wasn't targeted because the one-shot immunity would have spared him. We know at most one goon would have been killed by the Serial Killer so at least one certainly remains. There will be 2 other night kill attempts besides my Vigilante kill tonight. I hope the scum both target me tonight. That will keep them away from the Dietician if he's still alive and the Roleblocker. If I happen to target whoever targets me, then more roles and alignments will be revealed to the town.

Rafay role-claimed as the Roleblocker and finished the day with no votes on him. If he was lying, the real Roleblocker probably would have kept a vote on him but that didn't happen. I was suspicious of him even after the role claim. It seemed suspicious to me that Martino would so vigorously defend him when he couldn't really know for sure. I felt that Martino was trying to prevent the lynch of a fellow goon. Proving Martino as a townie give more credence to Rafay's role claim.

My advocations to the Vigilante were partly to make it look like I was not the Vigilante. I probably would have skipped the kill except that Martino seemed very scummy to me. He was sure about Rafay when at the time, he couldn't be. He was totally wrong about me. He probably would have led the lynch party against me today.

I didn't role-claim yesterday because I didn't really think I'd be lynched and I didn't think that anyone would believe anything I posted just to save my skin. My vote on Killgor was strictly to put him ahead of me in votes, nothing more.

Claiming at this point will hopefully make the story more believable. If I was at L-1 and posted the same thing, would you be more inclined or less inclined to believe it? If the Dietician claimed that I was a Cannibal and I posted the same thing, would you be more inclined or less inclined to believe it?

I'm the Vigilante. I won't get any more leads on scum than anybody else. That should have no bearing on whether I claim or not. I will choose a target tonight other than Rafay and Nerau. (Nerau could be the non-killing goon but I'll play the odds that he's not.)

Now that I've claimed, if a lynch party starts on me, that will provide the town information, too. A true townie will believe me and if I'm lynched and proven to be townie, then those that lead the lynching will be good suspects tomorrow.

I wouldn't have claimed if Rafay had been night-killed. I wouldn't have claimed if Martino had been scum. But I neither of those cases happened and I figure that the best course of action is to lay it all out in the open so the vanilla townies can make a more informed decision. A target on my back is in the best interests of the town. Rafay will know not to role-block me. The Dietician will know not to investigate me.

Even if I die tonight, I'll still get to pull the trigger before I die. Having all the information in the open is much better for the town than keeping it a secret and potentially having a Vigilante kill on the third night. Odds are that I would have been lynched today or tomorrow or killed tonight.

Did I answer all the questions?

[KevinH]

I keep forgetting about the 1-shot roleblock immunity of the Serial Killer. All we can really eliminate is that Nerau was not the killing goon.

KevinH: Townie Vigilante, for sure.
Rafay: Townie Roleblocker, I believe.
Nerau: not the killing goon, so has a higher probability of townie than others.
Euclid of Alexandria: makes good posts like a good townie.
Lyner: likes my style, he must be townie!
Imran Ehsan: provides good analysis like a townie.
Commander Shepard: first player to suggest I am scum that killed Martino the Vigilante, but a good townie would suggest that.
Xx Karl xX: voted for me yesterday, he must be scum!


But 2 or 3 of you are scum. I must say "well-played" because I can't decide who.

I will vote for whomever Rafay votes for, unless it's me

 

Also, right before the deadline, I will post whom I intend to target.  Then if I'm night-killed, you'll know who pulled the trigger in one of the other deaths.

[Euclid of Alexandria]

Imran Ehsan, on 14 May 2013 - 08:19, said:

However, we need to lynch correctly today so we can assume that at least one of them is not lying. So we can lynch one of the others and cross our fingers. Theres a good chance we will hit scum in one of the following: CS, Euclid, Lyner and karl.
 
I have left myself out as I know I am townie but you can include me in the list if you wish. Rafay is confirmed townie to me (reason posted in my previous post) and we are giving benefit of doubt to kevin and Nerau.

I wouldn't call Rafay confirmed town, but yeah I'm starting to lean town on my read of him as well. Since town Rafay wouldn't lie, I'm also more inclined to believe that Nerau was blocked last night now. Therefore, compared to others, Nerau is less likely a goon and thus more likely a townie. He could still be the SK or the non killing goon though, even if Rafay is honest. However, I already had a town read on Nerau before and if Rafay blocked him that only adds to that read. Bottomline: IMO neither Rafay nor Nerau are good lynch candidates.

KevinH is another matter. I already had a scum read on him and I don't think his motivation for claiming when he did is very convincing. As such his claim has only raised my suspicion.

@KevinH: No you didn't answer all the questions. Why did you not claim before Rafay had announced his block?

Anyway, from my perspective that leaves Shepard, Imran, Lyner, KevinH and Karl to find a scum amongst. These are my current reads on these people:

town: Shepard and Imran
null: Karl
scum: Lyner and KevinH

KevinH might be the vig despite my suspicion of him so my vote is on Lyner and I encourage everyone to consider the case I made against Lyner and hop on his wagon too.