661 replies to this topic

[Mandarijn]

Ok, so I've spend the last 3-4 hours reading this topic (I had 4 days off, so I finally had some time) as I still wasn't replaced... The scum are also keeping me alive as I'm no thread to them, so it's time to make them pay for this. I can't promise to be very active from now on, but I'll do my best to share my thoughts when I can.

 

I've also made my excel (it's not complete as I only started at the end of D2), but I got a few interesting thoughts I want to share. Maybe I'm completely off, but I just want to get them out there.

 

1st off, 2 interesting posts:

- Preston's last words: (They are important as he was probably heading in the right direction)

Spoiler

Didn't get back yesterday, but I'm here tonight. Day 3 started on page 12, and we're now on page 16 - 4 pages of content, if I include what happened before my prior posts.

Reading through it all in sequence like this, here is a condensed view of what has stood out to me:

1. Wolfpacks has made some strange moves; he tried to claim end of robert's wagon was suspect after he had pointedly avoided Robert's wagon after the lynch was set. This led to questioning of Wolfpacks by Ali, Yehom, and D34TH. On the one hand it felt like Wolfpacks was trying to set up a wagon rationale that didn't take - but despite his initial statement about looking at the END of robert's wagon, he keeps coming back to Ali who was at the FRONT of the wagon. Not sure what to make of that contradiction.

2. "KevinH and the question of inactives" - could be a HP-style book title. Rhizo and Yehom have been supporting characters on this one, in terms of the discussion on when it's worth selecting inactives versus not. I know some of this is just KevinH's style, but when I see him posting all of Mand's posts or trying to pull votes to his inactive-mand wagon by noting that Finster voted for Mand... it feels like he's stretching. So when he suddenly jumps to 1cecream, that makes me a less sure about the scumminess of 1cecream himself.

3. 1ceCream - presents a very actively scummy picture and if they are town I'd kinda want to hit them for it, same as Robert for his scummy posts and Mand for saying roughly the same thing. The active lurking is NOT helping anything, and the rationale provided of "I dont want to post when I have nothing to say" - I think on D2 I rather pointedly countered that idea, noting that there HAS been a lot to respond to and talk about even when people say there isn't. His roleclaim isn't anything special, but at least he was proactive about doing so. If 1cecream didnt have such an abrupt pile shift towards him, I'd be more inclined to test him. There may STILL be benefit to doing so, such that we can use it to critique those who suddenly jumped onto his wagon - but it's also a defensible position for a townie to make, so similar to Robert we may not gain much.

4. There's been some brief suspicion of SM. She stood out at the end of the Robert wagon because she said she believed his flimsy roleclaim, and while we have clarified her claimed logic today that does not mean it's not a defense of some kind. I don't think she's the highest suspect, but she's doing a good job of staying out of the way at this point.

---

One thing this has driven home to me is the following: I don't seem to like KevinH's posting style   I react negatively to how seemingly impartial much of it is. If he is scum he can stick to this style and it's the same as when he's town; I think it all but forces a cop to examine him specifically every game because otherwise it's impossible to clear him.

Until a few more divergent positions taken today, KevinH has stuck by his guns about Mand being inactive - he did it during Robert's lynch too. The comment he made about lynching inactives if there are no obvious scum-tells seems ludicrous in it's neutrality - basically saying that unless there is something obvious enough to override his pattern, he'll stick with it. So why didnt that apply to Robert yesterday? Robert did a VERY good job of seeming scummy, including a raw name claim and his actual role claimed later being uncommon and fake-able. Despite everything that stacked up, it didn't register as enough of a scum tell to move the needle I guess... but that doesn't sit right with me, at all.

D34TH sorta set himself up in opposition to Wolfpacks mid-day. So while I may still include them both on my current suspects, it'll likely be an either-or relationship with the two of them.

So my condensed current suspect list is as follows: KevinH, D34TH, Wolfpacks, 1ceCream, SM.

I've also got my eye on Yehom - I cant put a solid finger on what about his posts is setting me off, but something about his support for Kevin and seeming to generally be +1'ing other points already being made.

---

The current two wagons with votes on them are 1cecream and Wolfpacks. I have reasons to be leery of lynching both, and I'm reacting more negatively to KevinH than anything else. So for the moment at least that's where my vote will go - but I should be able to check at least once in the morning and perhaps shift my vote based on whatever posts happen between then and now.

Vote: KevinH

-Preston

 

- D34th with a short post that basicly hammered 1ceCream:

There's way too many reasons for me to do this...

 

 

UNVOTE
VOTE 1ceCream

Can you elaborate on all those reasons that you had to do this?

 

 

Then my thoughts.

The votes that hammered the lynches:

No Lynch (9): 1ceCream, D34THBR1NG3R, KevinH, Ali bin Turban, Wolfpacks, Mazuurek, Sister Midnight, SBG, Robert2424

Robert2424 (6): Ali bin Turban, SBG, Yehom, Chaplain of Death, 1ceCream, Preston

1ceCream (5): Chaplain of Death, KevinH, Yehom, D34THBR1NG3R, Preston

 

COD and Yehom were on both wagons that lynched a townie. This was also their only vote that day for both of them. This probably isn't a coincidence.

 

I agree with others that Ali is the only real true townie among us. But I also believe Wolfpacks (he had a lot of people questioning him) and probably Rhizo as well (he seems to do his best to scum hunt when he came back) are townies. It's still possible that 1 of either Rhizo or Ali is playing us/me, as I know they're capable of doing and that they are just playing a very good scum. We have to always keep this in mind!

 

Preston said in his last post that he questioned KevinH for his "not switching votes to Robert" while there were plenty of reasons to do so, but just sticking with his lynching inactives idea while this wouldn't help the town at all. Others have questioned KEvinH as well at the end of D3. 

So I'm pretty confident there are at least 2 scums in this list: Yehom, COD and KevinH.

 

D34th and SBG could both be scum in my eyes, both where on the NL wagon and on 1 of the 2 towniewagons.

 

If KevinH is scum, iSoc is probably town. If COD is scum, SM is probably town. (She didn't make herself popular with not posting her thoughts on D3) Here is my lists of people distansing themselves from someone else by accusing him/her in their posts: (This is just an indication, it doesn't have to mean anything btw)

Yehom <-> Wolfpacks

Ali <-> Wolfpacks

COD <-> Wolfpacks

COD <-> SM

iSoc <-> KevinH

Ali <-> SM

Rhizo <-> KevinH

Rhizo <-> D34th

SBG <-> SM

SBG <-> KevinH

[D34THBR1NG3R]

Can you elaborate on all those reasons that you had to do this?

Inactivity while active on other mafia and other parts of the forums, acting sus as hell, pretty sure he accused me of stuff. And in my eyes, way too many means more than one.

[Yehom]

COD and Yehom were on both wagons that lynched a townie. This was also their only vote that day for both of them. This probably isn't a coincidence.

Really though. If you actually played along with the game, instead of playing catch up the last 3-4 hours, you'd know how the flow of the game was. You can't possibly ignore the fact that BOTH Robert and 1cecream were pretty much prime suspect D2 and D3 respectively. Hindsight is always 20/20, but that's the expected advantage that you have of starting to play at D4 instead of D1 right? If anything, you have said basically nothing for 3 days straight, have completely refused to even vote for 3 days and now you come to make conclusions based on a quick read of a game that has been going on for the past weeks. I suggest you take a closer look, instead of skimming through the entire game for your own sake

[Preston]

Bah, I see how it is... *ditched*

[SeaBeeGipson]

Bah, I see how it is... *ditched*

I shall avenge thee.

[Sister Midnight]

Bah, I see how it is... *ditched*

 

OOOOH NO!  Not Preston!!!

 

 

I have already stated why I was late in voting and despite my squeezing it in before the thread closed, it wasn't counted because it was after deadline.  I am sorry I am not playing very well, I'm having a lot of trouble focusing on the game for various reasons.  I shall do my best to track down the murdering scum.

 

 

COD and Yehom were on both wagons that lynched a townie. This was also their only vote that day for both of them. This probably isn't a coincidence.

Really though. If you actually played along with the game, instead of playing catch up the last 3-4 hours, you'd know how the flow of the game was. You can't possibly ignore the fact that BOTH Robert and 1cecream were pretty much prime suspect D2 and D3 respectively. Hindsight is always 20/20, but that's the expected advantage that you have of starting to play at D4 instead of D1 right? If anything, you have said basically nothing for 3 days straight, have completely refused to even vote for 3 days and now you come to make conclusions based on a quick read of a game that has been going on for the past weeks. I suggest you take a closer look, instead of skimming through the entire game for your own sake

 

That's a rather defensive response at just being mentioned.  Could be a scummy defensive response.

 

I have absolutely no idea who is scum at this point.  Looking over the votes, and Mandy's analysis, I have to say I largely agree with him and I am  gently, but firmly fingering COD and Yehom based on what Mandy has already outlined.

[Chaplain of death]

Ok, so I've spend the last 3-4 hours reading this topic (I had 4 days off, so I finally had some time) as I still wasn't replaced... The scum are also keeping me alive as I'm no thread to them, so it's time to make them pay for this. I can't promise to be very active from now on, but I'll do my best to share my thoughts when I can.
 
I've also made my excel (it's not complete as I only started at the end of D2), but I got a few interesting thoughts I want to share. Maybe I'm completely off, but I just want to get them out there.
 
1st off, 2 interesting posts:
- Preston's last words: (They are important as he was probably heading in the right direction)

Spoiler

Didn't get back yesterday, but I'm here tonight. Day 3 started on page 12, and we're now on page 16 - 4 pages of content, if I include what happened before my prior posts.

Reading through it all in sequence like this, here is a condensed view of what has stood out to me:

1. Wolfpacks has made some strange moves; he tried to claim end of robert's wagon was suspect after he had pointedly avoided Robert's wagon after the lynch was set. This led to questioning of Wolfpacks by Ali, Yehom, and D34TH. On the one hand it felt like Wolfpacks was trying to set up a wagon rationale that didn't take - but despite his initial statement about looking at the END of robert's wagon, he keeps coming back to Ali who was at the FRONT of the wagon. Not sure what to make of that contradiction.

2. "KevinH and the question of inactives" - could be a HP-style book title. Rhizo and Yehom have been supporting characters on this one, in terms of the discussion on when it's worth selecting inactives versus not. I know some of this is just KevinH's style, but when I see him posting all of Mand's posts or trying to pull votes to his inactive-mand wagon by noting that Finster voted for Mand... it feels like he's stretching. So when he suddenly jumps to 1cecream, that makes me a less sure about the scumminess of 1cecream himself.

3. 1ceCream - presents a very actively scummy picture and if they are town I'd kinda want to hit them for it, same as Robert for his scummy posts and Mand for saying roughly the same thing. The active lurking is NOT helping anything, and the rationale provided of "I dont want to post when I have nothing to say" - I think on D2 I rather pointedly countered that idea, noting that there HAS been a lot to respond to and talk about even when people say there isn't. His roleclaim isn't anything special, but at least he was proactive about doing so. If 1cecream didnt have such an abrupt pile shift towards him, I'd be more inclined to test him. There may STILL be benefit to doing so, such that we can use it to critique those who suddenly jumped onto his wagon - but it's also a defensible position for a townie to make, so similar to Robert we may not gain much.

4. There's been some brief suspicion of SM. She stood out at the end of the Robert wagon because she said she believed his flimsy roleclaim, and while we have clarified her claimed logic today that does not mean it's not a defense of some kind. I don't think she's the highest suspect, but she's doing a good job of staying out of the way at this point.

---

One thing this has driven home to me is the following: I don't seem to like KevinH's posting style   I react negatively to how seemingly impartial much of it is. If he is scum he can stick to this style and it's the same as when he's town; I think it all but forces a cop to examine him specifically every game because otherwise it's impossible to clear him.

Until a few more divergent positions taken today, KevinH has stuck by his guns about Mand being inactive - he did it during Robert's lynch too. The comment he made about lynching inactives if there are no obvious scum-tells seems ludicrous in it's neutrality - basically saying that unless there is something obvious enough to override his pattern, he'll stick with it. So why didnt that apply to Robert yesterday? Robert did a VERY good job of seeming scummy, including a raw name claim and his actual role claimed later being uncommon and fake-able. Despite everything that stacked up, it didn't register as enough of a scum tell to move the needle I guess... but that doesn't sit right with me, at all.

D34TH sorta set himself up in opposition to Wolfpacks mid-day. So while I may still include them both on my current suspects, it'll likely be an either-or relationship with the two of them.

So my condensed current suspect list is as follows: KevinH, D34TH, Wolfpacks, 1ceCream, SM.

I've also got my eye on Yehom - I cant put a solid finger on what about his posts is setting me off, but something about his support for Kevin and seeming to generally be +1'ing other points already being made.

---

The current two wagons with votes on them are 1cecream and Wolfpacks. I have reasons to be leery of lynching both, and I'm reacting more negatively to KevinH than anything else. So for the moment at least that's where my vote will go - but I should be able to check at least once in the morning and perhaps shift my vote based on whatever posts happen between then and now.

Vote: KevinH

-Preston

 
- D34th with a short post that basicly hammered 1ceCream:

There's way too many reasons for me to do this...
 
 
UNVOTE
VOTE 1ceCream

Can you elaborate on all those reasons that you had to do this?
 
 
Then my thoughts.
The votes that hammered the lynches:
No Lynch (9): 1ceCream, D34THBR1NG3R, KevinH, Ali bin Turban, Wolfpacks, Mazuurek, Sister Midnight, SBG, Robert2424
Robert2424 (6): Ali bin Turban, SBG, Yehom, Chaplain of Death, 1ceCream, Preston
1ceCream (5): Chaplain of Death, KevinH, Yehom, D34THBR1NG3R, Preston
 
COD and Yehom were on both wagons that lynched a townie. This was also their only vote that day for both of them. This probably isn't a coincidence.
 
I agree with others that Ali is the only real true townie among us. But I also believe Wolfpacks (he had a lot of people questioning him) and probably Rhizo as well (he seems to do his best to scum hunt when he came back) are townies. It's still possible that 1 of either Rhizo or Ali is playing us/me, as I know they're capable of doing and that they are just playing a very good scum. We have to always keep this in mind!
 
Preston said in his last post that he questioned KevinH for his "not switching votes to Robert" while there were plenty of reasons to do so, but just sticking with his lynching inactives idea while this wouldn't help the town at all. Others have questioned KEvinH as well at the end of D3. 
So I'm pretty confident there are at least 2 scums in this list: Yehom, COD and KevinH.
 
D34th and SBG could both be scum in my eyes, both where on the NL wagon and on 1 of the 2 towniewagons.
 
If KevinH is scum, iSoc is probably town. If COD is scum, SM is probably town. (She didn't make herself popular with not posting her thoughts on D3) Here is my lists of people distansing themselves from someone else by accusing him/her in their posts: (This is just an indication, it doesn't have to mean anything btw)
Yehom <-> Wolfpacks
Ali <-> Wolfpacks
COD <-> Wolfpacks
COD <-> SM
iSoc <-> KevinH
Ali <-> SM
Rhizo <-> KevinH
Rhizo <-> D34th
SBG <-> SM
SBG <-> KevinH

I'd also like to point out that Preston, a now confirmed (and dead) townie was the hammer vote on both of those wagons, so obviously there was valid reasoning for those wagons.

I'd like to hear from Ali and Wolfpacks. They went back and forth through day 3 and I want to hear where they stand as I think that day 4 will likely be one of the 2 of them unless someone makes a claim.

Also I fail to see how SM's role is related to my own in any way. I can see how you could make a false connection between Yehom and I at a quick glance but I fail to see any connection between SM and myself. You could make the case that it is forced separation but the same could be said of many players in the game, namely, ANY PLAYER AND YOU. I'm unsure if you are in fact scum or not, its entirely possible, but I believe we will find better candidates before the end of day 4. 

[Mandarijn]

@Yehom: Why was 1ceCream a suspect then? Besides the lurking.
I also said at least 2/3 are scum, I could be wrong about 1...

@COD: The hammer vote doesn't always say much, the lynch would've happened without his vote as well. So scums won't make that kind of vote as it'll only bring attention to themself.

And it's just my analysis, it probably won't be 100% correct... but seeing where Preston was heading, I think we need to look further at that.

Also iSoc and Rhizo were reading the thread when I made that post last night. So lurk alert!

[KevinH]

1ceCream (5): Chaplain of Death, KevinH, Yehom, D34THBR1NG3R, Preston

 

I think 1ceCream was the best choice at the time given what we knew.  The scum let us lynch our own.

 

FoS: Everybody else

[SeaBeeGipson]

We have 5 dead townies. Zero scum.

Here is what baffles me. We have 11 players. Assuming the same logic and zero scum dead, we have 4 scum left.

Voting deadline is 3. That means there are enough scum to quickly flood a wagon and kill a town. That also means if everyone and their mom waits to vote until the last minute like the last day, scum just needs to get their votes in before you guys. Securing a vote with no time for anyone to get 6 votes on them.

If my math is right, we have 1 more mislynches to be able to still win.

If we mislynch today, we would be down 7 town tomorrow. 9 players total with 4 scum = they'd need a 5 player lynch. If anyone votes wrong and scum jump on it, its game over. If we mislynch today and tomorrow, we lose.

I think now would be a good time for any PRs to claim. We don't have much room for error at this point.

[Rhizoctonia]

 

1ceCream (5): Chaplain of Death, KevinH, Yehom, D34THBR1NG3R, Preston

 

I think 1ceCream was the best choice at the time given what we knew.  The scum let us lynch our own.

 

FoS: Everybody else

 

 

 

So you think whatever wagon you're on is the best choice, least scummish.  Got it, glad that was cleared up.

 

Vote:  Kevin

 

My feelings haven't changed since the end of the day yesterday, Kevin and WP are my main two suspects.  I'm still waiting to hear from WP, since he stated at the end of the day he had so much to say yet couldn't while driving and was be able to better defend himself.  

[KevinH]

1ceCream didn't even bother to jump onto a competing wagon in order to save himself.

That's not helping the town, even though he ended up being a townie.

[Wolfpacks]

I didnt actually say i had lots to say i jusr said im not saying much because im driving and i would defend myself more if attacked then i had previously, when your driving you have to abriviate a lot more then you would like because you never know when you have to put the phone down and drive,
But my thoughts are as i didnt die last night my suspicions on Ali have cooled a little, if he was scum i think id have gone,

At this moment im pretty suspicious of Yehom and isoc.
Yehom, because he has been in all the wrong wagons and isoc because of his fluff lynch vote on me and he has be quiet since,

You still cant write off Death,SM, SBG and COD,

I think Rhizo and KevinH are mostly town, because of the activly hunting scum

Mandi is the only one im not fully sure of

[Ali bin Turban]

I'm back from absence. I took a look at the end of the last day, starting from the point where wagons started to form:

 

Wolfpacks (2): iSocialism, D34THBR1NG3R

1ceCream (2): Chaplain of Death, KevinH

 

- Yehom  +1 on 1ceCream (3 now)

- Death -1 on Wolfpacks(1 now) and +1 on 1ceCream (4 now)

- Rhizo +1 on Wolfpacks (2 now)

- Interesting comment from Yehom, which seems like baiting RC from Wolfpacks, even though his bandwagon is just 2 men strong.

- SBG comments about 1ceCream RC seeming to be faked.

- Preston +1 on 1ceCream (5 now)

- In the meantime SM's wagon grows to 2 votes

- ISoc starts KevinH's wagon

- Preston +1 KevinH (2 now), -1 1ceCream ( 4 now)

- SM promised some analysis, yet she didn't made any, now she comes asking for extension.

- KevinH's wagon is growing: Rhizo +1 KevinH (3 now). Two more votes and he's lynched.

- SM +1 1ceCream ( 5 now) and it's all over.

 

 

Now questions:

 

1. Yehom, why would you ask Wolfpacks to RC?

2. SBG, why would you say 1ceCream's RC seems to be faked?

3. SM, where's your promised analysis yet? We've been waiting for it for so long. Also why calling for extension last Day? What did you want to achieve with that?

 

Other things

1. KevinH - your last 2 comments are total "calf-poop". Your condemning yourself now with your D2 statements about Robert's wagon. Also jumping on a competing wagon in order to save yourself is a hard scum indicator. I'm 100% sure that if he actually vote on you, you'd be screaming today that he's been acting like a scum because of trying to lynch you in order to save himself.

 

vote KevinH

[SeaBeeGipson]

A RC as a VT can seem fake. I wasn't saying it in a way that I was sure it was fake, I was saying it in a way that A RC as a VT is hard/impossible to prove and can be faked. Sorry if it came off wrong.

[Ali bin Turban]

Also...

 

 

I'd like to hear from Ali and Wolfpacks. They went back and forth through day 3 and I want to hear where they stand as I think that day 4 will likely be one of the 2 of them unless someone makes a claim.
 

 

Wow...can you explain what did you have on your mind? Please share, because it will be very interesting to read.

[Chaplain of death]

Vote Wolfpacks

 

I'm a follower. I followed wolfpacks last night and know what action he took, however he doesn't seem inclined to share with the town what that action was even though we are so close to losing. It's day 4, time to make your actions known WP.

 

Night 1 I unfortunately followed lyner.

Night 2 I followed you Ali. You didn't perform an action.

[Chaplain of death]

Namely I was hoping to pressure WP into claiming before I did so I could catch him if he fake claimed.

[Ali bin Turban]

But how could it be either him or me? Why including me in that sentence, especially when I've mentioned that I'm not suspecting Wolfpacks not as much anymore? Why stepping out with just one result (I'm not counting my no action as a result)...I guess Wolfpacks did something important or you wouldn't be coming out.

 

Follower can be mafia or town aligned so your RC is not making you townie yet. However why would you come out with such revelation if you were scum? Not knowing the action you've seen I don't see any reason.

 

I was just making my town analysis, but it can be very well destroyed by newest revelations. I'll wait to see what Wolfpacks has to say.

[iSocialism]

Here's how I see the past few days. All a theory IMO. Scum hid on the NL wagon early, while some might have hid off. They voted on Robert seeing it as an easy pick because of the way he was acting. After Robert RC's they may have gotten shaky legs, but waited to see what the town response was to it. They advocated for an Icy lynch, but may have stay off the wagon.

 

No Lynch (9): 1ceCream, D34THBR1NG3R, KevinH, Ali bin Turban, Wolfpacks, Mazuurek, Sister Midnight, SBG, Robert2424

Robert2424 (6): Ali bin Turban, SBG, Yehom, Chaplain of Death, 1ceCream, Preston

1ceCream (5): Chaplain of Death, KevinH, Yehom, D34THBR1NG3R, Preston

 

Mandarijn (0):

Mazuurek (iSocialism) (0):

Rhizoctonia (0):

Sister Midnight (0):

Wolfpacks (0):

These are the people who have not voted on a lynch wagon, all but rhiz were on the NL wagon.

 

 

As you see this is what my gut feeling of scum tactics is telling me. 

However, ice turned up town, and I don't have a strong feeling about SBG. Which means that these scum might be playing a little different from my oppose scum views.

 

My top  scum

Yehom - voted for robert, not having the best vibes

WP - hasn't really added much

SM - been in the shadows lately, hasn't added too much to the game

 

In between

KevinH -Kevin is Kevin

d34th - could be potential scum

CoD- Rc'ed while i was making this, most likely town

AbT - leaning more town, but not quiet sure

Rhiz - leaning more town, but not quiet sure

 

Town vibe

Mand - I think I would be dead if he was scum, also is actively scum hunting

SBG - IMO he has a different playing style when he's scum, and I don't feel that vibe right now. 

Vote Wolfpacks

 

I'm a follower. I followed wolfpacks last night and know what action he took, however he doesn't seem inclined to share with the town what that action was even though we are so close to losing. It's day 4, time to make your actions known WP.

 

Night 1 I unfortunately followed lyner.

Night 2 I followed you Ali. You didn't perform an action.

what action did Lyner take?