Sir Jesus

9.5/10

Gahhhh! The ironic thing is I read through all the posts where I had left off to write a meaningful post. Imagine my surprise as the votes against me piled up. Sorry for being so inactive. And best of luck to the town!

Yeah, I noticed that too ... You can't vote for Santa until someone picks a person. For the lack of a better candidate... Vote: SinKon

Hmmm. Interesting. I would give it a 70% chance that Narsis is lying. That seems like a hastily prepared story, that allows him to avoid having to do with his room-mate's death. He knows that the very limited options of lynch-candidates could very well lead to his death.

Move: Room 2

Wow, I just have no freakin' clue who could be scummy here. I agree that we should totally stick with the original plan of separating into rooms. If someone can present a case against someone that makes sense, I would consider voting for them. Other than that, there is just no evidence against anyone that I can point out. Since I have to vote Vote: SinKon The reason: I've seen him multiple times contradicting himself or lying. Example: "Sir Jesus is active...."

RL is killing me.

I'm posting in here, but won't be able to contribute at the moment.

I've read through the pages, and I tend to agree with Falzis. While CD has done nothing particularly scummy, my gut is saying that his posts are a bit more aggressive than usual. Both CD and EM have been dogging KevinH pretty hard, apparently because he is trying to "mislead" the town. I think you guys are jumping to conclusions WAY too fast there, I totally agree with KevinH in that the cop should leave hints. He could drop dead anytime, there is not point in leaving breadcrumbs. Hints left in a subtle enough fashion will be passed over by every player, until the clue-dropper turns out to be the cop. Then every post can be analyzed and evidence can be derived in that fashion. Also, KevinH's "no lynch" strategy is also not a scumtell. While I personally don't agree with it, the circumstances of our situation could lead (the misguided ) to believe that it would be in the best interests of the town. I'm not one to stick my neck out for others, but I think EM and CD are railing against KevinH's discussion points far too hard. To me, it seems like they are stifling one side of the conversation while keeping up the impression of a dialogue with KEvinH.

Move: Room 1

Agreed.

I doubt that's the case EM.

Nice, I just won the stock market.

I tend to agree. Of course, my votes have been jumping around too. But I feel like the only opinion that SinKon (and not so much Firkked) can carry is that of what the town also carries.

EBWOP unvote vote:crazyemolad

That is actually extremely good reasoning. Actually makes way more sense to vote for crazy then SinKon.... ....but I'm going to have to put up with pages of baseless accusations as SinKon's bloodlust for me continue. ugh.. I'll do what's best for the town. :drink: unvote vote: crazyemolad

Great catch EM.... FOS: Martino

Yeah ..... this is already starting to look like a bad idea. "Let's have a totally random list that has fixed variables and gives mafia members no choice in their location. Then let's take that same list, and rearrange it so that I can determine who I'm in a room with, but no one else. Why? Because KevinH is using sound logic and I have a death wish on SJ because he took the time to do a solid analysis for the town. That way I can pursue my personal vendetta only at the cost of changing the entire set of variables and circumstances." SinKon wants to eliminate me, mostly based on the arguments that: - I provided very useful information to the town's decision making - I voted "No Lynch" Both of these reasons are awful. By the way, did anyone notice how he all of a sudden changed his mind when the bandwagon switched directions? We should be looking to exterminate the people in any room with a warm corpse. Again, these are totally baseless accusations. Just because "everyone believes" something differently from me, does not mean that I am of an anti-town faction. In fact, it symbolizes that I am willing to stand up for what I believe is right for the town, even at the cost of receiving votes. However a mafia member would act just like you, always siding with the mob so you can do your dirty work at night. I did an analysis for the town to use as evidence in their arguments. Why would an anti-town faction want to give true statistics on a situation, when they could bias it to their advantage? I could have agreed with any of the figures presented... You confronted me and said that I was inferring something .... which is just silly. My post contained a short joke at the top, and a solid mathematical analysis + proof. There was zero opinion in that post. What do I infer from the information I derived? That a rigid/random placement is beneficial to the town because there is a good chance they will get stuck with one another, limiting their kill abilities. Of course there are several reasons to support the random list that I will not repeat (again, and again). We can be sure that someone is trying to frame me, if you are killed. Bait? What are you talking about? How can we use someone as bait, when they themselves could be the killer!?!?!?!?!?!???!?!? SFOS: SinKon *sigh* This is tiresome. Regarding the random placement, we should not have EM derive our positioning until we come to a lynch or no-lynch or deadline. Why? Because who the mafia votes for will be EXTREMELY influenced by the positioning within the plane. If I'm mafia and we occupy rooms 2, 3, and 4, we would obviously try to lynch someone in room 1. EM, you should tell us our assignments either: - One day before deadline, - L-1 / NL-1

Yeah....... unvote Vote: SinKon We should lynch whoever brought this up? Are we supposed to punish every single person whose views oppose yours, even if they are contributing new concepts? This is obviously town-like behavior. /sarcasm You are giving me a chance to explain myself? You have already voted for me, can't play that card now. However, the last post did not carry a single letter of intention or opinion. It was simply a mathematical analysis, meant for you to infer whatever you wish. Can we please just lynch this guy? He has already admitted he would lynch a townie, for providing an alternative viewpoint and a mathematical analysis. We cannot have people that just want to kill townies...

I guess I should put my tuition money to work... Statistical probability of 2 mafia in one room Assuming: -3 mafia out of 12 [townie lynched] -4 randomly selected rooms -3 people assigned to a room (making a total of 12 possible "spots") Mafia #1 -Goes to random room -0% chance of being place with other mafia (at start) Mafia #2 -Goes to one of 11 "spots" -Mafia occupies room with two remaining "spots" -There is a 2/11 chance of being placed with mafia #1 -If Mafia #2 doesn't get matched with Mafia #1, he will occupy a second room [Keep in mind, mafia now occupy 2 of 4 rooms or 50%] Mafia #3 -Goes to one of 10 "spots" -Mafia occupies rooms with 4 remaining "spots" -There is a 4/10 chance of being placed with Mafia #1 or Mafia #2 So we take the aggregate probability (in order for simplicity)...... -2/11 chance of match with #2 = 18% -4/10 chance of match with #3 = 40% This means that #2 has an 82% chance of failing to match rooms with #1. Let's assume #2 fails to match: For mafia #3, we want to take a 60% chance out of this 82% to calculate the chance of both failing, which comes out to [.6*.82] = 49% chance This means there is a 51% chance the mafia would be paired together randomly. In order to calculate the odds of all 3 being in the same room, we want to apply the same process... Mafia #1 -Produces no odds, sets up probability chain Mafia #2 -Has a 2/11 chance of joining #1 in his room. (two of eleven spots) Mafia #3 -Has a 1/10 chance of joining #1 and #2 in his room. (one of ten spots) Mafia #2 has a 18% chance of joining Mafia #3 has a 10% chance of joining To find the probability of success we multiply the chances: .18 * .1 = 1.8% There is a 1.8% chance that 3 mafia will be placed in the same room.

Yeah..... Just die and prove I'm innocent. Because that helps the town.

What I'm saying is that right now a lynch is totally random. If someone dies over the night and everyone is placed in 4 rooms (3 or four per room), then we can narrow down our lynch suspects to 2 or 3 people and significantly increase our chances of lynching mafia and not pro-townies. If we set up the rooms randomly, there is a decent chance we can catch mafia players together and really mess them up by keeping the positions rigid. Now they can spread out, collect items and kill without giving us a concrete platform of evidence. No sarcasm in that post, its a shame it comes off that way. I'm totally exacerbated at the way this game is moving along. If we followed my plan to a T, I could guarantee a town win. However I have a feeling I would put up a plan, vocal mafia players will nitpick at minor details and we will be no closer to getting the bad guys because we will revert back to our current/retarded plan.

KevinH, I totally missed that post! It makes perfect sense, dude. This whole self-selection thing is retarded. We are letting the mafia choose who they occupy a room with. Of course, we can choose who we are around too, but we know nothing about them. However, the mafia knows who is who, and can spread themselves throughout the plane for maximum effect. I can't believe we are letting people choose rather than doing this randomly. This is absolutely ridiculous, we are lynching on D1 and we are giving people free choice in their placement within the plane ..... Jesus Christ ... we are removing half the benefits that this game-style sets up. Instead of deriving information from plane geography, we are going to (most likely) lynch a townie randomly to try and draw patterns from it. This (D1 lynching) is what should be done normally, but this game offers so much more information that we can manipulate than this. And the accusation against me is absolutely ridiculous... Your logic is there is a 50/50 chance I'm mafia and less than 50% chance that I'm the cop. I would vote to eliminate you if I didn't think you were a pro-town role.

PRO-LIST I feel like we have a great opportunity to reduce the amount of variables in play during this game. We should methodically root out the mafia, it won't be hard if we keep the game settings (list) rigidified.

"for my purposes......" Does anyone here actually think this is for CD's purposes btw? Yeah I'm a mafia-suspect because I voted no lynch ..... that's just retarded. The night system gives us townies a power outside of simple voting and logic, we can choose our location. This gives us an amazing ability to deduce who does what, based on our positions. This gives us a large amount of information. Lynching also gives us information, but at a very high cost. I believe that in normal games, the benefit of vote-tracking is worth the cost. However, we have information that can/will be acquired without possibly lynching one of our own. If the mafia has an NK, it's going to happen regardless of us voting to lynch or not... I really believe that 2,3,7,8 is the best combo. It gives access to every single room for power-roles (exploration). It divides the plane into two distinct parties. None of the rooms are adjacent to one another.