d3mon

I haven't made up my mind on who I want to investigate but roleclaiming as miller even before I get a chance to investigate you sounds scummy to me. I guess we will find out soon enough. The only reason none of the unknown townies has come forward and pushed for a lynch can only indicate that the townies that are not confirmed at the moment are rather inactive. I hate to draw conclusions based on inactivity but imho Alternate tree is probably not scum.

I am..

I have had two chances to investigate and well.. if I had firm evidence on you then I would have voted for you. Are you saying that my claim as a cop with no counter claims is not enough evidence that I am town? Atm, we have 4 confirmed townies and the game should be easy for other townies. Tbh, I am a little surprised that no one is taking the lead.

The other person I investigated is dead so it wont help us.

As long as Rafay doesn't roleclaim before I reveal his role, we should be golden Imran, Karl : Once Rafay gives the go ahead, we may very well see more info emerge.

Then again, I know that there are three scum in this list and we can start hunting Alternate_Tree Imran Ehsan - My prime suspect Noahband Xarastier Xx Karl xX - Very likely scum. So, if Rafay agrees, I will be happy to reveal his role and prove my innocence.

Would like to know this as well. If you don't say what you need to soon you aren't going to be able to say anything at all. I am the a cop and know Rafay's role. I can tell you exactly what his role is and he might infact confirm that I am townie but I am not sure how it will help the town.

I don't believe I would be able to convince anyone that I am town. Anyhow, with the way Rafay is playing you guys are very likely to go after him. So, here is my bit.. i.e. do not take him out, he is not scum. The two people who are very likely to be scum are Imran and Karl.

Have you tried Torn?

Ok, I am finally back.. and it seems like we are still struggling to find a viable lynch target. Different.. perhaps, but how many times have you seen me play as town ? TBH, I have been a little distracted by CN war and then RL.. but I will try to be back to my usual self. Anyhow, my opinion of the players is EM/LK : Are either going to pull off the greatest scum trick of all time or just a couple of townies. Imho, very likely townies. Karl : Is contributing and making some pretty good observations, most likely town. CoD : Is really going after Xarastier but his confession of disliking Xarastier's playing style makes me a little reluctant to follow his lead. Probably town. Imran : One of my most vocal defenders has either had a sudden change of heart or is thinking that I am a easy lynch target. Probably scum. noah : A little inactive, so can't get a good read. Xar : Has a very different style of playing the game. Sometimes, I agree with CoD's assessment that even if he is town, he is hurting it. I haven't been able to make up my mind about him. Alternate_Tree: Again, don't have a good read on him. Rafay: He is active but is trying to keep a low profile. Most like scum. Kaz : Acting the most townie and seems to be making conscious effort to stay out of any bandwagon. I voted for him earlier in the day and now I will explain why. Now, I am assuming that EM/LK are townies. Since, I am town, lynching me on day 1 would have been great for the scum but despite the most likely townies voting for me.. I was almost surprised that there was no bandwagon on me. This can only indicate one of two things 1) The initial assumption is wrong and I am scum. My scum buddies defended me and saved me from getting lynched. 2) One of the scum was already voting for me and scum didn't want to get two people in the list of people that lynched a townie and thus stayed away from it. Since, EM/LK are most likely townies, I believe that Kazio is very likely to be scum. Vote : Kazio FoS: Imran

There seems to be an interesting back and forth between Kazio and Karl, I will read the posts that I missed today and try to post something useful as soon as possible.

I am sorry for not posting but I am a member of Disaster Recovery team for my organization and was very busy prepping for Nemo. Unfortunately, since this wasn't a false alarm, I would continue to be busy with RL for the next 3-4 days. Mod: If a replacement is available, please feel free to replace me. Unvote

Just to get things started on day 2. Vote : Kazio

XXXV

2,343

XXXIII

CoD, Mason is a one roleclaim which is difficult to pull off for scum as it essetially means that two scum have to make false roleclaims. Add to that the fact that this is a closed game and its very likely that town does have people with Mason role, so if they were to come forward, its likely that scum would loose two members which imho is not worth it for the scum. I know that this will probably increase the chances of me being lynched as the Masons are going after me but absent anyone coming forward and roleclaiming Mason or cop (telling us that they are scum), imho its pretty safe to believe that EM and LK are towines. EM, does your roleclaim indicate that the other person is a townie? KevinH had a scum neighbourizer in the last game, I am wondering if there might be a scum mason in this one.

LK, with all due respect, the maths is still wrong. You are calculating probabilities with one set of dependencies i.e. you are not considering all the scenarios Probability First pick is townie : 70% Second pick is townie: Probability of first being townie (7/10) x Probability of second being townie (6/9) + Probability of first being scum (3/10) x Probability of second being townie (7/9) = 70% You will find that if you work this out for any (nth) pick the probability will remain the same.

Its good to know that you have decided to expand your list from 5 to 6. But I believe your role claim. Unvote If others decide that I should be lynched then I am not going to fight it as this would come in handy to point out why lynches on day 1 are a bad idea.

So, if I am reading this right, you are claiming to have a Mason or a Neighbor role. Which would mean that there is someone out there who can vouch for you. I would love to hear everyone's opinion about whether this guy should roleclaim and vouch for LK. Imho, him roleclaiming is better than say letting LK be lynched. Anyhow, mathematics was never my strongest suit but if you are saying that you randomly picked up names and believe that the 4th name picked had a higher than 30% probability of being scum then that is incorrect. I am not dismissing the rest of your analysis but from a mathematical point of view each of those 4 have exactly 30% probability of being scum. While, I don't agree with the reason for which noah initially voted for you i.e. revenge, my vote was never just a OMGUS vote, if that was the case, I would've voted for EM or Kazio before you.

LK, you now have enough votes to be lynched at deadline. If you are townie, you should do all in your power to prevent a townie from being lynched and that includes you. I hate lyching on day 1 because its always based on hunches. Now, I usually try to judge people by the way they are playing and when you have played with the same people a number of times, it becomes easier to judge them. Now, I haven't played enough games with you to judge you based on that but bandwagoning and unvoting is in my experience one of the surest signs of scum. I might be wrong but help me make the right decision.

catz 10/10

Umm.. apparently you made a quick jump on a bandwagon and then decided that it was not worth it when Kazio unvoted. Thats rather unusual and tbh as scummy as I have ever seen on day 1. I don't believe in lynching anyone on day 1 as it has a chance to hurt the town and while I still believe that it is the best possible move for town absent any slip ups from the scum. I have to say that this is one of those cases where I believe that making an exception is worth it. Unvote Vote : Lorikz Kain

Why would you say that? AFAIK they are still voting for me.

Thats a pretty short list, does it mean that I get extra cake? @Kazio, I realize that people are voting for CoD because he voted for someone who roleclaimed on day 1. Now, it helps the town cop (I hope there is one) to prioritize the night investigation targets but imho CoD and Xarastier are both townies and jumping on either bandwagon is most likely to hurt the town. @CoD, Xarastier is new to mafia, I don't know if he is trolling (if he is then he is doing a good job) but as the senior player, sometimes you have to let them learn the ropes. Now, it might appear that people are ready to lynch you for something as trivial as a typo but you must realize that there are others watching from the sidelines and every bit of discussion is helping the town and trust me, its very unlikely that they will let you be lynched for just a typo.