Imran Ehsan

Masked. Welcome.

Masked. Welcome.

I am around. I dont have anything of value to add. Everything being discussed now have all been discussed in minute detail and been discussed over again. Unfortunately, I dont have any other way to effect the game except my vote, which I have done. I havent seen anything yet which could convince me of Rafay not being scum so my vote will stay on him. So lets see what the night phase gives us.

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Blame Samus <_< Masked. Welcome.

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All masked upto here. Welcome.

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:

Blades picture has disappeared. In other news I have re-added some of the old smileys back Thjis looked like the best place to mention it.

Embassy created and masked. Welcome.

The problem with that approach is if we lynch a scum the confirmed townie immediately is dead (dead scum's partner will hit him). We have no docs so no protection can be given. We have a RB but if we are not sure who the 2nd scum is RB cant neutralise that threat as well. Finally we have the wildcard SK who can kill anyone he wants without dying or being blocked for one more night. So, we should really be taking action that has a god probability of identifying the SK and lynching him. Is Rafay the likely SK or one of the mafia goons? is Lyner one of the goons or is it possible that he is the SK? If Rafay and Lyner are the two goons who is the most likely SK? If one of these two have a good probability of being the SK instead of one of the goons we should lynch him. And we should plan the night with our power roles such that the SK can be identified if Rafay and Lyner are goons and neither is the SK.

Euclid's RC sounds very convenient. Interesting that he claims to have investigated Lyner and found him scum right when townies are debating on a short list of suspects. Anycase, I am not convinced about his RC yet. I will need to look through his Day 1 posts and see if they fit in with his posts or contradict. @CS - You havent mentioned wether you think Euclid is really the Dietician or not? What do you think?

After going through Lyner's most recent posts, I cant really see anything that makes him look either scummy or townie. He has been playing pretty conservatively so far, without taking big stances and just going with the flow. His earlier summary of other players on Day 2 was everyone looks townie to him which seems like a safe play.However, Its pretty interesting that he said Rafay seems scummy before the counter claim by CS. This may be a ploy to distance himself from Rafay though...as he knew his partner may be exposed soon by the real RB. I need to go back and see what his opinion of Rafay was on Day 1. But if he was supporting Rafay's Role Claim on Day 1, this is a pretty strange turnaround. I am not convinced however whether he is the 2nd scum. Nerau seems much more likely to be the 2nd scum to me. I wont be surprised however if Lyner turns out to be the SK. He has been playing pretty conservatively and trying to attract as less attention to himself as possible..something that fits the profile of a SK.

OK..finally managed to get some time to read through the walls of text <_< I see some accusations being thrown against me (including being the SK ) so I will address those first. Regarding Rafay: Yes, I believed his Role Claim on Day 1. As I had pointed out earlier, Rafay role-claimed when he had only 4 votes on him. I didnt think scum will put himself in such a vulnerable position so early. False claiming with only 4 votes on you exposes you to 1) Real RB who immediately knows you are scum and 2) to other scum faction, who will target him at first opportunity, believing him to be a PR. On Day 1, when we have almost no info I didnt believe it was necessary to lynch a possible PR. There were other better candidates to lynch. Giving him the benefit of the doubt and let the game move into Day 2 where we will have more info. However, I agree with Euclids 3 scenarios and it is extremely unlikely CS would false claim to lynch the real RB. So yes, Rafay seems to indeed be scum. I was wrong with my assessment of him. Also his claiming to RB Nerau threw me off....i didnt think the scum would take the risk of claiming to RB someone who may indeed be the Dietician. KevinH's scenario: while interesting, I dont think its realistic. If Rafay is lynched and found to be the real RB, it immediately exposes both CS and Euclid to be scum. Too much risk for the townies. I will post my thoughts on Lyner in a little bit as I need to run. But before i do: Unvote Vote: Rafay

IV

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Should be good now.

I will post my take on things. But first I would to quote one of my earlier posts: If Martino was the Vig, I have no doubt he would have used his NK ability on kevinH. He looked pretty convinced about kevin being scum. If kevin was scum masquerading as the Vig, both kevin and Martino would have been killed last night. I dont see Martino hitting kazio or RoT over kevinH. This means kevin is not false-claiming. So who are the scum and the SK? Previously, I had also posted that they are amongst these 5: Euclid, CS, karl, Lyner and Nerau. We have a great probability of hitting one if we lynch one of these 5. CS seems to be about to roleclaim..so lets see what he has. But otherwise I will go with a lynch on karl. I have a strong feeling that he is one of the scum. We can have no read on him since he or previously Xarastier never posted much. The others who posted dont really give off that much of a scum like feeling, so theres a possibility that one of the scum is being really clever making it hard for us to id him. But two scum being very clever seems unlikely. Who his partner is I am not sure yet..it can be either Euclid or Nerau. Lyner is a possibility but my hunch is saying he is townie. So for now: Vote: xx karl xx

Also question kevinh. You advocated strongly for the Vig not to kill on Night 1 as shown below: What changed your mind?

CS is right. We should not put too much emphasis on role claims on Day 2. kevinH may indeed be the Vig but as CS is pondering he may be one of the scum who killed the real vig, Martino. It will make sense for scum to role claim now if they got the vig last night because they dont know if the Dietician investigated them or not. Also I will point out that assuming Nerau is townie just based on Rafay's RB is risky. He may be one of the scum who didnt send in the NK. However, we need to lynch correctly today so we can assume that at least one of them is not lying. So we can lynch one of the others and cross our fingers. Theres a good chance we will hit scum in one of the following: CS, Euclid, Lyner and karl. I have left myself out as I know I am townie but you can include me in the list if you wish. Rafay is confirmed townie to me (reason posted in my previous post) and we are giving benefit of doubt to kevin and Nerau.