TBRaiders

Preston, I am reading your post now. I should have refreshed before posting. I should have known you were writing a book and gave you more time...lol

I am even more disappointed. I read the new posts since I last posted and started typing up a lengthy reply. I then checked back a couple pages and when I came back to post I saw Preston reading this thread so decided to finish some more work before refreshing to see what Preston posted for us, even if it was a "Hey checked the thread. Busy as crap, but have a lot to post and will post it later" type of reply. So anyway, below is some of the post I was working on. I realize I don't want to say more until Preston and Kax tell us what they did last night, but I do want to toss this out there: No matter how you break it down after all the claims on D2, of the following people one used role block and two used arrows to try and kill on N1: D3mon TBRaiders Imran Ehsan Robert2424 Electric Mango Nick The Great So three of these 6 people. Lets say D3mon had a 1-shot kill role and he was one of the ones shooting arrows on N1. That still leaves two of the five. For me, it becomes easier because I know I didn't shoot any arrows so I am down to suspecting the bottom four names on the list as a roleblocker and a scum with killing ability. Imran, why would you use Role Cop on Preston? He told us what he was and outed your role. Your investigation would only confirm he was a JOAT or role cop himself and not his alignment. Unless you think he threw the dice on D2 and made an excellent guess about your role, I am not sure I understand fully why you checked him and not someone else.

Wow, very disappointed in the lack of discussion today. Rafay, Preston, Kaz - would love to know if any of you found out anything useful for us.

That is why I talked about those two, fwiw.

Damn, I forgot to post the rest of my stuff with my reply. This was supposed to be above me talking about those two: So these were my thoughts going into night 2, but I never got to post them before D3mon was lynched: Night 1 known actions:ABigDeer -watched PrestonRafay - tracked PrestonPreston - claimed JOAT, and used Role Cop on ImranKaziocore - used Fletcher (Gunsmith) on RafayLyner - investigated D3mon and found GoblinTBRaiders - I know I am town*Felt confident everyone above is town *Most likely townRobert2424 (all over D3mon early and often)Imran Ehsan (Preston says Role Cop and also was all over D3mon) HmmElectric MangoNick The Great

So we have a roleblocker and a strongman; at least two scum left. Nick the Great is acting like a typical scum and rarely posting. As I went back and looked at all of his posts, they were mostly non-committal, fluff. I also noticed he posted right after D3mon with the whole no-lynch thing and of course he reminded us that he had voted that way last game so it was natural to do it again. I'm guessing him and D3mon got a real giggle doing it. EM is hard to predict for me because he was targeted on night one so unless somebody comes out and says they tried to vigilante his butt or somebody investigated him and got a result, I don't know what to think. If he is town, that would mean somebody on my upper list is scum. I am not a pro at this, but I think I have this pegged right: Vote: Nick The Great

Man, I have been so excited all day to see what happened and then see a bunch of posts from people who previously claimed to tell us what new information they have and nothing...

Glad to see I am still alive, but would have rather Lyner stayed alive so he could keep using his role for us. I thought I might stay alive with so many role claims out there, but knowing I would be an easy kill I just didn't know. I am curious to see if somebody has any interesting night time results they want to post. I am hoping somebody watched Lyner.

I am going to have to start back from the beginning of this day and read every post again. For now, my plan will be to vote for D3mon as the deadline nears, but I really need to read everything again tomorrow and post some thoughts before this day ends.

I was thinking this last night when I read the post. You didn't need to out his role. You could have just said it came back townie. Why wouldn't you want to read every post to form your own opinion? This is a fluff post that comes across as total scum because the only reason you wouldn't need to figure things out is if you already knew who the scum were. Can there not be more than 2 trackers or 2 any roles for the town? Also, a hypothetical question: Let's say Rafay is scum. Why would scum track Preston? I could understand them watching him, to see if a doctor protected him, but track him?

Preston, you don't have to role claim but if you found out useful information that can help the town, then share it. Everyone knows you have a role and used it. The fact that you suspected Imran and used your role against him means you must have done some type of investigative work. I was curious why'd you debate if someone else had a role on day one, but this isn't a debate. ABD started a chain of events that has led to you.

lol, made me laugh

ABD, I have backed off of you being my top suspect, but it is posts like this that make me suspicious of you. If you are town, our goal is to find the scum and not make things more confusing for the town. If you know you are town, then why talk about yourself in two posts? Be a part of the conversation of why other people are scummy, not just who you think are scum but why they are scum, and less posts defending yourself; thats what scum do. It doesn't clear us both. The vig could have targeted scum and been right. My list was turned upside down with ABD's claim yesterday and while it confirmed a couple town, I think it moved a couple of my probably town to probable scum list. Specifically I have my eye now on Robert, EM, Lyner, Nick, and then D3mon as my top 5.

I don't know if you need to role claim, but the rest of us are going to be curious what you targeted Imran with and what the results might have been. Also, if you aren't scum, the scum now know you have some kind of role. I'd love to know your thoughts on Imran as well.

. It is great to hear people come out and say what they did, but the bolded part above advises caution. There could be mafia roleblockers, watchers, trackers, etc. It is great to see this plot thicken, though.

Yeah, would have been great if you picked either of the other two.

You already had your eyes on me, I don't see what else has changed really. Other than the actions from last night have made it worse for the two that already suspected me. The night actions of last night weren't actually that good of an idea due to the fact that you two already had suspicions and most likely would of voted me on the second day anyway, that and it appears no one died Also some people think to believe that I was reading this thread at like 4am when it opened back up, I never actually saw the posts until right now because I went to bed, so I don't know what's the go with that. I literally just woke up and am posting right now. To start my thoughts, well, what an obvious setup lol. Though I suspected that this could of happened because why would they want me dead yet when the town can do the job for them. It also appears that there must be a few bullet proof people on the team but I assume that most are one shot like Montosh. I want to say that Preston was actually targeted last night because I watched him, Rafay was the one to target him. No idea what he did to him but it just strikes me as a bit suspicious when Rafay said that 'no one targeted Preston' when infact Rafay was the one who actually did. But seeing as there are two that have been shot already it seems like a third hit is unlikely but who knows. So no Robert, I'm not a vig. I will read this again tomorrow, but I think you completely just joined my town list with this post. You might have also gotten Rafay or yourself night killed next...FWIW, I believe had Rafay been the same as you and done the same thing, he would have gotten the same result you got. We will certainly need to hear from Rafay. Something that both Preston and ABD both said made me say "ahhhh" of course Preston wasn't night-killed, because if he was the most obvious scum target, the scum were smart enough to realize this and that if we have a watcher or doctor they would watch or protect him.

Preston in particular. I spent the last day and a half reading over everything and thought to myself, if I was scum who would I want out of the picture right away? Preston stood out at the top of that list. He has posted the most discussion and has been a vocal "town" leader. He's helped me adjust my thinking and thought process quite a bit, so perhaps I am biased in thinking he'd be at the top of their list simply because he's at the top of my most useful list. I had myself just under Preston as #2 they'd want to get rid of, but figured I may rate even lower as a newer player who might not pose as much of a threat to the scum. Why did I have myself so high? Kaz posted that he was positive I was town and that seemed to be a general vibe among most of you, so as someone who probably will never be day lynched, I think the scum realize I was a safe kill while the rest of town argue and do their work for them. Here is what I feel 100% positive about: EM and myself are town. Even if a Vigalante targetted one of us, scum targetted the other and while I've heard of some wacky strategy, I doubt scum would attempt to lynch one of their own at night. Here is what I think: 1) Kaz and D3mon are town. 2) Lyner, Nick The Great, and Rafay are probably town 3) Imran and Preston I am not sure, but lean town for Imran. 4) Abigdear and Robert2424 are probably scum. After day one voting and night one actions, I've went back and read every post as if the person posting was trying to hide they were scum. Kaz and D3mon both come across as strong two to me, especially considering who was targeted and what they said in their posts. D3mon removing his vote early, now that I see how much useful information from day 1, is really telling. If he was scum, he could have pretended to be away for a day or two and had it passed he wouldn't have been suspicious as the first NL vote. Kaz I just don't see making those comments on the last part of day one and then turning around and trying to kill EM or myself. Lyner, Nick The Great, and Rafay - I had all three on my probable town list early on. All were on the no-lynch wagon and it still feels like a non-scum move. I am obviously viewing that a little different now (not saying I see anyone who did that as scum, but I can see the motivation to not reach majority early EVER in a game) but I also think scum would want that free townie lynch and wouldn't push a no-lynch early or be so commital right away, although scum do like to bandwagon according to research I've done. I do have some minor suspicions of all three and if any turn out to be scum I think it can provide some additional hints based on some early thread posts. Nick had a lot of early spam posts and he jumped on board the Montosh bandwagon. Rafay has mostly lurked and Lyner made a lot of radar's go off and I have to respect the opinion of more experienced players. #3 suspect: Why Preston may be scum: 1) He spectulated that EM may be a cop in an earlier post. Why would a townie want to openly discuss that so early in the game and give scum any ideas about it? Then we have either the scum or a vig trying to kill EM on night one. 2) He semi-defended ABigDeer in this post: http://ironcentral.org/community/topic/48328-kh-06-the-battle-of-the-five-armies-mafia/page-3?do=findComment&comment=745459 It wasn't an aggressive defend and he even listed ABD as a possible "second-tier" type suspect (perhaps to throw off suspicion if ABD was found out to be scum) but it is interesting where he sounded confident in his accusations and where he tried to leave a little bit of a trail for others to follow. Go back and read the first few pages and pretend like he is scum and knows who the rest of the scum are and see what you think. #2 suspect: Why Robert2424 is probably scum: 1) Middle of the road posts and views. He says just enough to show he's active but isn't scum hunting like the rest who appear town to me. He also defended ABigDeer in post 57: Then comes back to say d3mon is next on his list in a follow-on post to ABigDeer based on activity - and as I posted above I think d3mon comes across as strong town. 2) Again, go back and read his posts as if he was scum pretending to be town and see where he pointed fingers and where he semi-defended. If ABD isn't scum, then maybe I am overthinking the ABD defense a bit and it's clouding my thinking. I have 11 more days to relook at these initial Day 2 thoughts. #1 suspect: Why ABigDeer is probably scum: 1) He made mine and EM's spidey sense both go off on day one and knowing EM is town, I feel like I need to go with my analysis and gut instinct. He came across as the most scummy to me ending day one. 2) Look who was also targetted on night one; the two strongest votes for ABD. Now I would normally be the first guy to immediately think it was a wise scum decision to do stuff like that, but then I have to ask myself why EM and why TB? EM was getting a scummy vibe from some people and could have easily ended up as a day lynch if enough people continued to press as him being scum. I've already said why I am a decent choice for night kill by the scum, but over Preston? Hmmm Those are my thoughts and while I am not officially voting right now, I will probably be voting for ABD not only because I believe he is scum, but because I think it gives us quite a bit of follow-on information. If I am not around this world for much longer, these are the rest of my current observations: - If Preston turns out to be scum, I think that clears Rafay and Lyner based on earlier posts by Preston. It would also clear Imran based on his initial vote and analysis of Preston pushing the no-lynch thing and Rafay pointing out how Preston is a FOS for him based on his posting. - If Abigdear turns out to be scum I think that clears Imran, Lyner, and d3mon based on earlier posts by Abigdear and points a bit of a finger at Preston and Robert.

I was an adventurer too, until I took an arrow to the knee. Try to kill the new guy, eh? I see you checking this thread right away as well ABigDeer. Now the question is was someone trying to set you up or were you trying a little reverse psychology to suggest someone killed me to make you look bad? I have my eyes on you.

Imran, the lengthier post of yours above explaining how we will have more information based on how people voted and who gets lynched really made me think from an angle I hadn't been thinking. This is pretty fun. I stand by a no lynch for day one and while changing my vote right now won't matter for today's result, I think it's a habit I want to establish for future games as well (but knowing to hold it and not vote right away so the day doesn't end earlier). Unvote Vote: No Lynch

http://www.raiderslinks.com/images/wall/ppr7768.jpg

This is the first time I now feel like voting for Montosh. My radar just blasted and if Montosh turns out to be scum...

ABigDeer, you continue to make moves and say things that make you suspicious. Even if you are town, you have to at least be considered an asset by the scum.

If two voters are tied at 4 by deadline, does that mean no-lynch?

I was going to ask if we should post our list, but then got to thinking it might not be the right time to start tossing it out there. What if I say Kaz is my top suspect and then I am night killed, but Kaz is actually town and scum try to paint him in a bad light by killing me? Plus, I really have no idea. Everything is a big guess at this point.