569 replies to this topic

[Kaziocore]

Anyway I believe we should request for an update right now
so that we can discuss something more. There's nothing more
to discuss if we don't.

[Martino]

Let me explain it better...

If we're going with your strategy we need to make it so that the other 7 posters
will be significantly lower than the top 3 posters.

To keep their post counts at a minimum, they'll
try to double post or triple post as much as possible.

There are pros and cons to this strategy however.

Actually, they could just post all their info in one post instead of double or triple posting. Anyway, I agree with trying to get three people with clearly more posts than the others. I suggest that the top three posters try and post as much content as possible in the next two days and that everyone else doesn't post in the meantime. I'd suggest that if you are not in the top 3 that you will only post if you desperately need to get something out now or if you disagree with the strategy. We can request the update at the end of the two days when the differences are even bigger. We don't want a spread of post counts, we want three clear leaders and the rest clearly behind. This is the best way to be able to say something about the top 3. With a spread it could be that #4-5-6 are mafia and we may falsely conclude that someone from the top 3 must have been mafia.

[KevinH]

I want everyone to post as much as they can. The spread will naturally occur.

Two medium-activity posters that are scum will look exactly the same as one heavy-activity and one light-activity poster.

The suggestion to only have three players with alot of activity is bad. If two of those three are scum, it's possible they'll reach 90%. If one of those three are scum, the information gained that each has a 1/3 chance of being scum is not much better than knowing that 3 of the other 9 of you are scum.

Unvote.

Keep posting. I'm interested in the battlefield shift but it will be of more use if we get the update later rather than sooner. If one player lags significantly behind in post count, they will probably get my vote.

[molestargazer]

Keep posting. I'm interested in the battlefield shift but it will be of more use if we get the update later rather than sooner. If one player lags significantly behind in post count, they will probably get my vote.

What? Why?

And what you can see in the last few pages is completely why this strategy can't and won't work.
1) People post when they want to. They can have periods of more activity. They won't be constrained by people saying "Hey dude post less so we can find scum". A "nominated" person to post might drop down and be overtaken because of RL or whatever. The aim of this game is not to discourage activity by people, it's to encourage it for everyone to help their faction.
2) I imagine with such a large amount of posting everyone will be at an even-ish keel in terms of posts. Thus, using them to try and track scum is next to impossible.
3) 'Content' posts are completely subjective. What person considers to have content the mod might not. Hell, he might even discount posts which talk about using this method to find scum for all we know. Thus, using this method, we may get it completely wrong.

WHY WE SHOULD SCUMHUNT INSTEAD: The more dead scum, the less they can influence the battlefield in their favour. And even if we don't, for instance on Day 1, the posts we make don't have to be correct to be counted as contentful and to influence the battlefield in our favour.

[KevinH]

I don't disagree with scum-hunting. Unfortunately, on day 1 it is pretty much random. How many times have I said "I told you so"?

Point 1 supports my position. People post when they can. I want that to continue.

Point 2 might happen but from past experience there are always a few "lurkers".

Point 3 is subjective but I would consider most of the current posts valid. Don't you miss my poetry?

[molestargazer]

I meant about voting the lurker, actually. my bad, I should've trimmed more of the quote.

Lots. And every single one of those times we've got valuable information from that Day 1 where we lynched. I'm quite happy to do it again.

[Chaoshawk]

If we get the update up it will be less random and we can move on. I also don't know what double or triple posting will do since they won't count if they aren't relevant or helpful to the game.

[Narsis]

The aim of this game is not to discourage activity by people, it's to encourage it for everyone to help their faction.

QFT.

[KevinH]

Simple case (1 scum left):
Player A: 5 posts
Player B: 10 posts
Player C: 15 posts

If battlefield is 71% townie, then Player A must be scum.
If battlefield is 50% townie, then Player B must be scum.
If battlefield is 33% townie, then Player C must be scum.

[Kasabian]

Simple case (1 scum left):
Player A: 5 posts
Player B: 10 posts
Player C: 15 posts

If battlefield is 71% townie, then Player A must be scum.
If battlefield is 50% townie, then Player B must be scum.
If battlefield is 33% townie, then Player C must be scum.

Good Point, i like this strategy Kevin, well thinking

[Nerau]

i agree with KevinH aswell its just the math gets a little screwy when more scum are included

[CanucksDynasty]

Including this post (by page)

1. molestargazer - 2+4+2+0+2
2. Chaoshawk - 2+1+1+1+1
3. CanucksDynasty - 7+1+7+4+1
4. Nerau - 0+2+0+1+1
5. ccabal86 - 0+2+2+2+0
6. KevinH - 2+4+2+2+3
7. Kasabian - 0+2+0+2+1
8. Alasdair - 0+0+2+1+0
9. Martino - 0+0+1+1+1
10. Kaziocore - 0+1+1+3+1


I've taken account for every post except double/triple post (counts as 1).
I checked and every post is talking about the game so they should be valid.
No one has put in poetry or "no u" in the posts.


Cleary the top 3 posters are:
CanucksDynasty 20
KevinH 13
molestargazer 10


The next nearest are:
Chaoshawk 6
ccabal86 6
Kaziocore 6
Kasabian 5
Nerau 4
Martino 3
Alasdair 3


I vote to put in the request for update asap.
Kaziocore agrees with me...so that's 2 votes.
Chaoshawk is in somewhat of agreement...so maybe it up to 3 votes.

What do the rest of you say?

[Chaoshawk]

I'll just say that we should get update now. There's not much else to discuss until we get that information.

[CanucksDynasty]

I'll just say that we should get update now. There's not much else to discuss until we get that information.

OK that's 3 votes for update now....only need 3 more for a majority consensus.


Including this post (by page)

1. molestargazer - 2+4+2+0+2
2. Chaoshawk - 2+1+1+1+2
3. CanucksDynasty - 7+1+7+4+2
4. Nerau - 0+2+0+1+1
5. ccabal86 - 0+2+2+2+0
6. KevinH - 2+4+2+2+3
7. Kasabian - 0+2+0+2+1
8. Alasdair - 0+0+2+1+0
9. Martino - 0+0+1+1+1
10. Kaziocore - 0+1+1+3+1


CanucksDynasty 21
KevinH 13
molestargazer 10
Chaoshawk 7
ccabal86 6
Kaziocore 6
Kasabian 5
Nerau 4
Martino 3
Alasdair 3


I'm #1...yay...however the gap between #3 and #4 is shrinking.

[Martino]

Well it seems like my plan got shot down. Anyway I am last on the postcount, so I suppose one more post won't matter that much.

What? Why?

And what you can see in the last few pages is completely why this strategy can't and won't work.
1) People post when they want to.

Then those people have very poor discipline. I am not asking them to remain silent for the complete D1. I am asking them to refrain from posting for 48hrs unless they have something extremely urgent to post. They will still have enough time to post their opinion after the battlefield update.

They can have periods of more activity. They won't be constrained by people saying "Hey dude post less so we can find scum".

I'm not just saying hey dude post less. I'm saying: "Hey if we have a large difference in posts, we can gain valuable information about the top three posters. So could you please wait with posting until we have a large gap and are able to extract maximum value from our ability(battlefield update)."

A "nominated" person to post might drop down and be overtaken because of RL or whatever.

Well yeah that could happen. That would still leave two people with lots of posts and the rest with very few. It would still give a lot more information than a battlefield update when we have a nice spread in posts.

The aim of this game is not to discourage activity by people, it's to encourage it for everyone to help their faction.

The aim of the game is primarily to win it. The aim of the battlefield mechanism was obviously to encourage activity. However, the objective is so steep that it doesn't really matter. There is no way it will be achieved before the fate of the game has pretty much been decided anyway. (In fact, I really can't see the town reaching our objective with any scum left alive) So sure the mechanism may be designed to encourage activity, but there is no way we will win this game with activity. However, we can win this game by using the battlefield update to get an idea about the top posters.

2) I imagine with such a large amount of posting everyone will be at an even-ish keel in terms of posts. Thus, using them to try and track scum is next to impossible.

That is what we have been saying. We don't want an even spread, we want a few clear leaders.

3) 'Content' posts are completely subjective. What person considers to have content the mod might not. Hell, he might even discount posts which talk about using this method to find scum for all we know. Thus, using this method, we may get it completely wrong.

Yeah, more likely though we won't get it completely wrong. Sure we may think X has 20 content posts and the mod may only count 15. But if the other posters are around 5 that is still a big difference.

WHY WE SHOULD SCUMHUNT INSTEAD: The more dead scum, the less they can influence the battlefield in their favour. And even if we don't, for instance on Day 1, the posts we make don't have to be correct to be counted as contentful and to influence the battlefield in our favour.

Getting a spread in postscounts IS scumhunting. It is not traditional scumhunting, but it will give us valuable information. Anyway, I'm starting to think that it is not so much that you don't see the value in the strategy, but that you know it will harm you.

vote molestargazer

[molestargazer]

Getting a spread in postscounts IS scumhunting. It is not traditional scumhunting, but it will give us valuable information. Anyway, I'm starting to think that it is not so much that you don't see the value in the strategy, but that you know it will harm you.

It could very well harm me, doesn't mean I'm scum, does it?

Fine, fine, I'll support the update. But I hope everyone will realise how futile this is when the results are wide open to interpretation and don't show us anything about who's scum with any level of confidence.
Maybe then we can actually scumhunt, hmm?

[Chaoshawk]

I think that was the purpose of getting update to make it easier for scumhunting.

[KevinH]

We will have 2 major tasks to accomplish after getting an update.

1) Play with the math and agree on some conclusion about the best lynch candidate.

2) Get enough players to vote for the chosen candidate.

In a perfect world, I would prefer to wait a bit. More data would yield better results.

However, it will probably take some time to accomplish our 2 major tasks; I support the update.

[Kaziocore]

It could very well harm me, doesn't mean I'm scum, does it?

Fine, fine, I'll support the update. But I hope everyone will realise how futile this is when the results are wide open to interpretation and don't show us anything about who's scum with any level of confidence.
Maybe then we can actually scumhunt, hmm?

With or without this update thingy,
there will always be inactive people.

With this update, at least we might have a chance
to pinpoint the scum instead of outright guessing.

[Nerau]

We will have 2 major tasks to accomplish after getting an update.

1) Play with the math and agree on some conclusion about the best lynch candidate.

2) Get enough players to vote for the chosen candidate.

In a perfect world, I would prefer to wait a bit. More data would yield better results.

However, it will probably take some time to accomplish our 2 major tasks; I support the update.

more data so also support the updated

it can help give us a clearer picture on what the math is doing due to mutliplier and such